ne-agri-facts NEBRASKA AGRI-FACTS Issue 21/2003 Released: 11/04/2003 by USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service William G Hamlin, State Statistician Dean C Groskurth, Deputy State Statistician ------------------------------------------------------------------------ P.O Box 81069 Location: 298 Federal Bldg Lincoln, NE 68501 Phone: (402) 437-5541 e-mail: nass-ne@nass.usda.gov Internet: http://www.nass.usda.gov/ne/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Dear producers and other data users: Information contained herein is the result of mail, phone and personal interview surveys conducted during the past few weeks. Special recognition and appreciation are extended to all producers and agribusinesses who provided data making these reports possible. William G. Hamlin State Statistician For the PDF version of this report, go to the following address: http://www.nass.usda.gov/ne/agrifact/agf0322.pdf ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Nebraska November 1 Crop Report Nebraska's 2003 corn crop is forecast at 1.12 billion bushels, up 1 percent from last month and 19 percent above 2002. Average yield is forecast at 145 bushels per acre, up 2 bushels from October and 17 bushels above last year's drought reduced crop. Acreage to be harvested for grain at 7.75 million, was unchanged from October and 5 percent above a year ago. Soybean production is forecast at 175.5 million bushels, unchanged from last month and slightly below last year. Yield is forecast at 39 bushels per acre, unchanged from last month and just above the 38.5 bushels per acre of 2002. Area for harvest, at 4.5 million, is unchanged from October but down 2 percent from 2002. Sorghum production is forecast at 31.6 million bushels, more than double the production of last year. Yields are expected to average 62 bushels per acre, up 3 bushels from last month and 12 bushels above last year. U.S. November 1 Crop Report U.S. corn production is forecast at 10.3 billion bushels, up 1 percent from last month and 14 percent above 2002. Based on conditions as of November 1, yields are expected to average 143.2 bushels per acre, up 1.0 bushel from October and up 13.2 bushels from last year. Acreage harvested and to be harvested for grain is forecast at 71.8 million acres, unchanged from October but up 4 percent from 2002. Soybean production is forecast at 2.45 billion bushels, down 1 percent from October and 11 percent below 2002. Yields are expected to average 33.8 bushels per acre, down 0.2 bushel from October and down 4.2 bushels from 2002. Area for harvest is forecast at 72.5 million acres, unchanged from last month but up fractionally from 2002. Sorghum grain production is forecast at 400 million bushels, virtually unchanged from the October forecast but up 8 percent from 2002. The U.S. yield forecast is 51.0 bushels per acre, unchanged from last month but up 0.3 bushel from 2002. Crop Summary: Acres Harvested, Yield and Production, Nebraska and United States, 2001-2003 Nebraska United States Classification 2003/ 2003/ 2001 2002 2003 1/ 2002 2001 2002 2003 1/ 2002 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corn for Grain % % Harvested 1,000 Ac 7,750 7,350 7,750 105 68,808 69,313 71,765 104 Yield Bu *147.0 128.0 145.0 113 138.2 130.0 143.2 110 Production 1,000 Bu 1,139,250 940,800 1,123,750 119 9,506,840 9,007,659 10,277,932 114 Soybeans for Beans Harvested 1,000 Ac *4,900 4,580 4,500 98 72,975 72,437 72,538 100 Yield Bu 45.5 38.5 39.0 101 39.6 38.0 33.8 89 Production 1,1,000 Bu *222,950 176,330 175,500 100 2,890,682 2,749,340 2,451,759 89 Sorghum for Grain Harvested 1,000 Ac 425 300 510 170 8,584 7,299 7,851 108 Yield Bu 84.0 50.0 62.0 124 59.9 50.7 51.0 101 Production 1,000 Bu 35,700 15,000 31,620 211 514,524 369,758 400,012 108 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Forecasted November 1, 2003. *Record. Source: USDA NASS Crop Production, November 12, 2003. Corn and Soybeans: Yield and Production, Selected States and United States, 2001-2003 and Forecasted November 1, 2003 Corn Soybeans Yield per Yield per State Acre Production Acre Production 2002 2003 1/ 2001 2002 2003 1/ 2002 2003 1/ 2001 2002 2003 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Bushels 1,000 bushels Bushels 1,000 bushels Illinois 136.0 169.0 1,649,200 1,496,000 1,867,450 43.0 37.0 477,900 453,650 382,950 Indiana 121.0 150.0 884,520 631,620 817,500 41.5 38.0 273,910 239,455 203,300 Iowa 165.0 159.0 1,664,400 1,963,500 1,908,000 48.0 34.0 480,480 499,200 358,700 Kansas 116.0 123.0 387,350 290,000 325,950 23.0 23.0 87,360 58,420 57,500 Minnesota 157.0 143.0 806,000 1,051,900 950,950 43.5 31.0 266,400 308,850 229,400 Missouri 105.0 109.0 345,800 283,500 305,200 34.0 29.0 186,200 170,000 143,550 Nebraska 128.0 145.0 1,139,250 940,800 1,123,750 38.5 39.0 222,950 176,330 175,500 Ohio 88.0 156.0 437,460 252,560 491,400 31.0 40.0 187,780 146,320 171,200 S.Dakota 95.0 105.0 370,600 304,000 430,500 31.0 29.0 143,040 126,790 121,800 U.S. 130.0 143.2 9,506,840 9,007,659 10,277,932 38.0 33.8 2,890,68 22,749,340 2,451,759 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1 Forecasted November 1, 2003. Source: USDA NASS Crop Production, November 12, 2003. U.S. GRAINS SUPPLY AND DISAPPEARANCE OUTLOOK ---------SUPPLY--------- MARKET YEAR DISAPPEARANCE 1/ Market CROP Begin- ---Domestic-- Year Average YEAR Pro- ning Im- Total Primary Ex- Ending Market duction stocks ports Use 2/ Other ports Total Stocks* Price --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Million bushels $/bu. Corn 2001/02 9,507 1,899 10 11,416 5,861 2,054 1,905 9,820 1,596 1.97 2002/03 9,008 1,596 14 10,619 5,642 2,298 1,592 9,533 1,086 2.32 2003/04 3/ 10,278 1,086 10 11,374 5,700 2,450 1,875 10,025 1,349 1.90-2.30 Soybeans 2001/02 2,891 248 2 3,141 1,700 169 1,064 2,933 208 4.38 2002/03 2,749 208 5 2,962 1,615 132 1,045 2,793 169 5.53 2003/04 3/ 2,452 169 8 2,629 1,485 130 890 2,505 125 6.65-7.55 Wheat 2001/02 1,957 876 108 2,941 926 274 964 2,164 678 2.78 2002/03 1,619 777 77 2,473 918 210 854 1,982 425 3.56 2003/04 3/ 2,337 491 75 2,903 910 310 1,075 2,295 548 3.10-3.40 Sorghum 2001/02 515 42 0 556 208 45 242 495 61 1.94 2002/03 370 61 0 431 158 45 186 388 43 2.32 2003/04 3/ 400 43 0 443 165 45 190 400 43 1.95-2.35 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Marketing year begins: Corn, Sorghum & Soybeans, September 1; Wheat, June1. 2/ Primary uses: Corn & Sorghum = Feed; Soybeans = Crushing; Wheat = Food. 3/ Projection. Source: USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, November 12, 2003. U.S. Agricultural Exports, by Leading States: Estimated Value by Commodity Group, FY 2002 Commodity United Leading 10 States, by value Group States 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Million Dollars Cal. Ill. Iowa Nebr. Kans. Tex. Minn. N.Dak. Wash. Ind. Total 53,293.6 7,160.0 3,310.5 3,217.7 3,144.8 3,005.6 2,932.7 2,202.4 1,933.7 1,787.7 1,696.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Feed grains Ill. Iowa Nebr. Ind. Kans. Minn. Ohio Tex. S.Dak. Mo. and products 6,779.2 1,054.7 1,049.5 778.7 569.9 519.5 512.1 282.0 259.8 250.3 245.6 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Soybeans and Iowa Ill. Ind. Minn. Nebr. Ohio Mo. S.Dak. Ark. Kans. products 7,325.7 1,217.7 1,211.1 694.2 675.1 565.0 475.9 471.9 362.5 231.1 221.4 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Live animals Nebr. Kan. Tex. Iowa Colo. Ill. Minn. Kent. Wisc. N.Car. and meat 6,097.4 929.8 748.4 696.3 595.1 285.6 273.8 238.4 201.7 194.3 193.8 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Vegetables Cal. Wash. Ida. Wisc. Minn. Ore. Fla. N.Dak. Mich. N.Y. and preps. 4,551.0 2,022.1 474.0 246.8 244.8 194.2 143.1 137.5 123.0 105.8 101.3 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat and Kans. N.Dak. Wash. Tex. Okla. Minn. Mont. Ohio Ida. Colo. products 4,787.1 695.1 558.2 267.0 249.1 242.2 203.2 196.7 174.8 158.0 147.8 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fruit and Cal. Fla. Wash. Ore. Mich. N.Y. Tex. Haw. Penn. Ariz. preps. 3,433.5 1,725.9 614.6 532.8 97.9 79.5 61.3 42.3 32.4 31.2 27.9 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Poultry and Ga. Ark. Ala. N.Car. Miss. Tex. Ind. Va. Penn. Del. products 2,279.3 263.8 252.6 209.7 209.4 155.6 123.0 82.8 71.2 65.0 59.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Feeds and Kans. Tex. Nebr. Iowa Minn. Colo. Ill. Mo. Ida. S.Dak. fodders 1,951.2 349.3 271.1 181.7 105.4 75.2 61.2 56.3 55.1 46.2 46.1 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Tobacco, un- N.Car. Kent. S.Car. Tenn. Ga. Va. Conn. Penn. Fla. Mass. manufactured 1,147.4 442.1 255.1 89.7 82.2 74.9 70.7 48.0 23.0 14.6 13.5 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton and Tex. Cal. Miss. Ga. Ark. N.Car. La. Tenn. Ala. Ariz. linters 2,052.1 452.7 286.1 235.8 218.5 180.4 164.7 101.8 96.3 90.6 70.5 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Hides and Nebr. Kans. Tex. Colo. Wisc. Utah Minn. Cal. Penn. Iowa skins 1,776.0 353.4 322.6 283.5 134.5 114.8 61.9 50.8 50.0 49.2 49.0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cal. Ore. Ga. Tex. Haw. N.Mex. Ariz. La. Okla. Ala. Tree nuts 1,231.9 1,121.0 37.3 18.6 13.7 12.6 11.8 3.9 3.1 2.9 2.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ark. Cal. La. Miss. Tex. Mo. Rice 829.3 369.0 206.2 103.5 57.2 50.7 42.6 na na na na --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dairy Wisc. Cal. Minn. N.Y. Ida. Penn. Wash. Iowa Ohio Tex. products 1,030.7 223.5 215.0 74.2 56.6 52.0 47.7 40.5 33.9 26.4 24.5 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cal. Ariz. Ill. Oreg. Iowa Nebr. Seeds 839.2 184.0 77.9 49.0 45.8 45.8 37.1 na na na na --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Animal Nebr. Kans. Tex. Colo. Wisc. Iowa Ill. Cal. Penn. Minn. fats 454.4 94.9 84.7 73.1 31.5 21.2 19.3 14.8 13.8 12.6 12.3 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Sunflowerseed N.Dak. S.Dak. Kans. Colo. Tex. Nebr. Minn. and oil 218.3 94.1 63.6 25.0 13.3 7.7 5.3 4.7 na na na --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Peanuts and Ga. Tex. Ala. N.Car. Fla. Okla. Va. N.Mex. S.Car. products 258.3 102.1 67.5 29.5 16.3 15.4 12.4 9.3 4.2 1.5 na --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cottonseed Tex. Miss. Cal. Ga. Ark. N.Car. La. Tenn. Ala. Mo. and prods. 97.6 22.6 11.5 11.1 10.0 9.3 7.3 5.0 4.6 4.1 3.5 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cal. N.Dak. Ill. Penn. Fla. Wash. Tex. Oreg. Ohio N.Car. Other 6,154.1 894.6 810.1 433.1 323.4 293.1 262.7 202.4 191.5 141.1 112.2 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- na = not applicable. Other = Minor oilseeds, sugar and tropical products, nursery and greenhouse, essential oils, beverages other than juice, and misc. vegetable products. Source: USDA ERS http://www.ers.usda.gov/data/stateexports/top10sx.xls