ne-agri-facts NEBRASKA AGRI-FACTS Issue 12/2004 Released: 06/22/2004 by USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service Mark Harris, Director Dean C. Groskurth, Deputy Director ------------------------------------------------------------------------ P.O Box 81069 Location: 298 Federal Bldg Lincoln, NE 68501 Phone: (402) 437-5541 e-mail: nass-ne@nass.usda.gov Internet: http://www.nass.usda.gov/ne/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Dear producers and other data users: Information contained herein is the result of mail, phone and personal interview surveys conducted during the past few weeks. Special recognition and appreciation are extended to all producers and agribusinesses who provided data making these reports possible. Mark Harris State Director ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 2004 Wheat Production Forecast Down 23% From Last Year Nebraska's 2004 winter wheat crop, based on June 1 conditions, is forecast at 64.8 million bushels, down 23 percent from last year's crop. Average yield is forecast at 35 bushels per acre, down 4 bushels from last month, 11 from last year, and 4 below the ten-year average. Acreage to be harvested for grain is estimated at 1.85 million acres, unchanged from last month but up 30,000 acres from last year. In the major wheat growing areas, as of May 30, topsoil moisture supplies were rated mostly short to very short and subsoil moisture supplies rated mostly very short. Crop condition rated 42 percent poor to very poor with development ahead of normal at 86 percent headed. Disease and insect pressure have been light; however, freeze damage was noted in some western counties. Winter Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield and Production, Nebraska, and United States, 2002-2004 ------Nebraska------- -------United States------- Classification 2002 2003 2004 1/ 2002 2003 2004 1/ ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Winter Wheat Harvested for Grain 2/ Percent 92.1 95.8 94.9 71.2 81.3 80.9 For harvest 1,000 Acres 1,520 1,820 1,850 29,742 36,541 35,082 Yield Bushels 33.0 46.0 35.0 38.2 46.7 43.6 Production 1,000 Bushels 50,160 83,720 64,750 1,137,001 1,707,069 1,530,742 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Forecast. 2/ Percent of seeded acreage. Source: USDA NASS Crop Production, June 10, 2004. Winter Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield and Production, Selected States and United States, 2003-2004 Acres Harvested Yield Production 2003 2004 1/ 2003 2004 1/ 2003 2004 1/ ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 Acres Bushels 1,000 Bushels Colorado 2,200 1,800 35.0 30.0 77,000 54,000 Kansas 10,000 9,000 48.0 39.0 480,000 351,000 Missouri 870 950 61.0 55.0 53,070 52,250 Montana 1,720 1,600 37.0 34.0 63,640 54,400 Nebraska 1,820 1,850 46.0 35.0 83,720 64,750 Oklahoma 4,600 4,300 39.0 37.0 179,400 159,100 South Dakota 1,380 1,440 43.0 35.0 59,340 50,400 Texas 3,450 3,600 28.0 33.0 96,600 118,800 Washington 1,800 1,700 65.0 64.0 117,000 108,800 United States 36,541 35,082 46.7 43.6 1,707,069 1,530,742 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Forecasted June 1, 2004. Source: USDA NASS Crop Production, June 10, 2004. U.S. Grains Supply and Disappearance Outlook --------:-----------------------------:---------------------------:---------------- : : Market Year : : : Supply : Disappearance 1/ : : :-----------------------------:---------------------------: Market : Crop : Begin- :---Domestic--: : Year : Average Year : Pro- ning Im- Total: Primary : Ex- Total : Ending : Market : duction stocks ports : Use 2/ Other: ports : Stocks : Price ---------------------------------------------------------------------------:-------- Million Bushels $/bu. Corn 2002/03 8,967 1,596 14 10,578 5,558 2,340 1,592 9,491 1,087 2.32 2003/04 10,114 1,087 10 11,211 5,800 2,555 2,050 10,405 806 2.45-2.55 2004/053 10,425 806 15 11,246 5,725 2,680 2,100 10,505 741 2.55-2.95 Soybeans 2002/03 2,756 208 5 2,969 1,615 130 1,045 2,791 178 5.53 2003/04 2,418 178 8 2,604 1,475 114 900 2,489 115 7.65 2004/053 2,965 115 5 3,085 1,650 150 1,065 2,865 220 5.70-6.70 Wheat 2002/03 1,606 777 77 2,460 918 197 854 1,969 491 3.56 2003/04 2,337 491 75 2,903 900 307 1,155 2,362 541 3.40 2004/053 2,061 541 65 2,667 915 282 975 2,172 495 3.25-3.85 Sorghum 2002/03 361 61 0 422 169 24 186 379 43 2.32 2003/04 411 43 0 454 185 25 200 410 44 2.40-2.50 2004/053 455 44 0 499 190 35 225 450 49 2.50-2.90 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Marketing year begins: Corn, Sorghum & Soybeans, September 1; Wheat, June/1. 2/ Primary uses: Corn & Sorghum = Feed; Soybeans = Crushing; Wheat =/Food. 3/ Projection. Source: USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, June 10, 2004. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States , 2003-2004 1/ Milk Production 3/ Month Milk Cows 2/ Milk per Cow 3/ 2004 as % 2003 2004 2003 2004 2003 2004 of 2003 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thousands Pounds Million pounds Percent January 7,810 7,716 1,615 1,619 12,616 12,491 99 February 7,811 7,716 1,489 1,528 11,628 11,787 101 March 7,810 7,717 1,666 1,658 13,014 12,798 98 April 7,800 7,721 1,627 1,630 12,693 12,588 99 May 7,787 7,716 1,671 1,684 13,013 12,994 100 June 7,785 1,596 12,428 July 7,780 1,597 12,421 August 7,771 1,571 12,207 September 7,764 1,511 11,731 October 7,743 1,561 12,083 November 7,721 1,517 11,709 December 7,713 1,596 12,313 Annual 7,775 19,017 147,856 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2004 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/Excludes milk sucked by calves. Source: USDA NASS Milk Production, June 16, 2004. Cattle On Feed Nebraska Cattle on Feed Up 4 Percent Nebraska feedlots, with capacities of 1,000 or more head, contained 2.01 million cattle on feed on June 1. The inventory was up 4 percent from last year but 2 percent below June 1, 2002. Placements during May totaled 390,000 head, up 8 percent from 2003 and 11 percent above 2002. Fed cattle marketings for the month of May totaled 470,000 head, down 6 percent from last year but 6 percent above May two years ago. Other disappearance during May totaled 10,000 head compared with 10,000 head last year and 15,000 head during May 2002. U.S. Cattle on Feed Up 1 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.62 million head on June 1, 2004. The inventory was 1 percent above June 1, 2003 but 3 percent below June 1, 2002. Placements in feedlots during May totaled 2.36 million, 2 percent above 2003 and 4 percent above 2002. Marketings of fed cattle during May totaled 2.03 million, 9 percent below 2003 and 7 percent below 2002. Other disappearance totaled 79,000 during May, 22 percent above 2003 and 3 percent above 2002. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States, 2003-2004 ---------------:---------------------:-------------------:-------------------:---------------------- : June 1 : May : May : May Other : Number on Feed 1/ : Placements : Marketings : Disappearance 2/ ---------------:---------------------:-------------------:-------------------:---------------------- : 2004/: 2004/: 2004/: 2004/ STATE : 2003 2004 2003 : 2003 2004 2003 : 2003 2004 2003 : 2003 2004 2003 ---------------:---------------------:-------------------:-------------------:---------------------- : 1,000 Head Percent:1,000 Head Percent :1,000 Head Percent : 1,000 Head Percent ---------------:---------------------:-------------------:-------------------:---------------------- Arizona 266 294 111 38 29 76 39 28 72 2 2 100 California 485 520 107 83 91 110 66 63 95 2 8 400 Colorado 990 1,010 102 205 265 129 205 180 88 10 15 150 Idaho 260 255 98 53 74 140 67 67 100 1 2 200 Iowa 345 400 116 48 50 104 70 63 90 3 2 67 Kansas 2,270 2,250 99 550 495 90 530 465 88 20 20 100 Nebraska 1,930 2,010 104 360 390 108 500 470 94 10 10 100 New Mexico 110 119 108 30 28 93 20 12 60 1 2 200 Oklahoma 360 330 92 98 92 94 67 70 104 1 2 200 So. Dakota 198 188 95 34 28 82 44 37 84 2 3 150 Texas 2,880 2,810 98 730 740 101 520 480 92 10 10 100 Washington 160 155 97 30 35 117 39 39 100 1 1 100 Other States 285 275 96 48 46 96 71 54 76 2 2 100 United States 10,539 10,616 101 2,307 2,363 102 2,238 2,028 91 65 79 122 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death losses, movement from feedlots to pastures and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Source: USDA NASS Cattle on Feed June 18, 2004. Crop Condition, Selected States, as of June 20, 2004 Corn: Crop Condition Soybean: Crop Condition ------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------- State VP P F G EX State VP P F G EX ------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------- Percent Percent CO 0 1 13 67 19 AR 2 5 27 49 17 IL 1 3 15 57 24 IL 2 5 24 50 19 IN 3 5 19 52 21 IN 3 7 24 50 16 IA 2 6 19 55 18 IA 2 6 22 54 16 KS 1 6 34 46 13 KS 0 4 23 66 7 KY 2 8 25 42 23 KY 2 6 30 50 12 MI 5 12 35 44 4 LA 2 9 37 48 4 MN 2 7 37 46 8 MI 2 10 40 38 10 MO 2 5 16 57 20 MN 2 9 38 45 6 NE 2 5 22 48 23 MS 0 2 14 57 27 NC 1 3 21 55 20 MO 5 11 19 53 12 ND 2 4 26 61 7 NE 1 5 24 51 19 OH 4 9 23 44 20 NC 0 2 25 59 14 PA 1 2 14 39 44 ND 1 3 27 62 7 SD 1 2 18 63 16 OH 5 9 30 44 12 TN 0 3 16 50 31 SD 0 2 18 67 13 TX 0 3 19 42 36 TN 0 2 13 66 19 WI 4 17 30 38 11 WI 3 16 22 47 12 18 Sts. 2 6 22 51 19 18 Sts. 2 6 25 53 14 Prev Wk 2 5 23 53 17 Prev Wk 1 5 26 55 13 Prev Yr 1 5 21 56 17 Prev Yr 1 5 24 58 12 Winter Wheat: Crop Condition Sorghum: Crop Condition ------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------- State VP P F G EX State VP P F G EX ------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------- Percent Percent AR 1 5 32 49 13 AR 0 6 42 46 6 CA 0 5 20 30 45 CO 10 30 44 15 1 CO 20 28 30 21 1 IL 0 4 32 53 11 ID 0 3 11 72 14 KS 1 7 36 48 8 IL 0 3 27 52 18 LA 0 4 47 47 2 IN 2 6 28 48 16 MO 0 3 27 63 7 KS 24 21 27 25 3 NE 1 5 39 48 7 MI 1 5 30 55 9 NM 0 7 66 25 2 MO 2 7 32 52 7 OK 1 18 45 33 3 MT 4 12 29 44 11 SD 1 1 28 67 3 NE 20 25 35 19 1 TX 3 9 22 44 22 NC 0 2 29 60 9 11 Sts. 2 8 32 46 12 OH 3 8 33 45 11 Prev Wk 2 9 33 45 11 OK 4 13 30 45 8 Prev Yr 2 7 31 55 5 OR 1 9 32 49 9 -------------------------------------- SD 20 23 33 19 5 TX 9 23 34 29 5 WA 2 5 23 61 9 18 Sts. 12 17 29 35 7 Prev Wk 11 17 30 35 7 Prev Yr 8 13 26 38 15 ------------------------------------------ Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress, June 21, 2004.