ne-agri-facts NEBRASKA AGRI-FACTS Issue 14/2004 Released: 07/27/2004 by USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service Mark Harris, Director Dean C. Groskurth, Deputy Director ------------------------------------------------------------------------ P.O Box 81069 Location: 298 Federal Bldg Lincoln, NE 68501 Phone: (402) 437-5541 e-mail: nass-ne@nass.usda.gov Internet: http://www.nass.usda.gov/ne/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Dear producers and other data users: Information contained herein is the result of mail, phone and personal interview surveys conducted during the past few weeks. Special recognition and appreciation are extended to all producers and agribusinesses who provided data making these reports possible. Mark Harris State Director ------------------------------------------------------------------------ JULY 2004 WHEAT AND OAT PRODUCTION FORECAST Based on July 1 conditions, Nebraska's 2004 winter wheat crop is forecast at 57.6 million bushels, down 11 percent from last month's forecast and 31 percent below last year's crop. Average yield is forecast at 32 bushels per acre, 3 bushels below last month and 14 bushels below last year's near record yield. This is the lowest yield since 1992 when the average was 30 bushels per acre. The recorded head count from Nebraska's objective yield survey, at 43.0 heads per square foot, is the lowest since 1996. Acreage to be harvested for grain is estimated at 1.80 million acres, 20,000 acres less than last year. Wheat harvest started the third week of June and has kept a near normal pace. Oat production is forecast at 3.65 million bushels, down 44 percent from last year's record yielding crop. Acreage for harvest, at 50,000 acres, is down 44 percent from 2003 while yield at 73 bushels per acre is equal to last year's record high yield.. Winter Wheat and Oats: Area Harvested, Yield and Production, Nebraska, and United States, 2002-2004 ------Nebraska------- ------United States------- Crop 2002 2003 2004 1/ 2002 2003 2004 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Winter Wheat Harvested for Grain 2/ Percent 92.1 95.8 92.3 71.2 81.3 80.1 For harvest 1,000 Acres 1,520 1,820 1,800 29,742 36,541 34,825 Yield Bushels 33.0 46.0 32.0 38.2 46.7 42.2 Production 1,000 Bushels 50,160 83,720 57,600 1,137,001 1,707,069 1,469,735 Oats Harvested for Grain 2/ Percent 31.4 40.9 35.7 41.2 48.3 45.9 For harvest 1,000 Acres 55 90 50 2,058 2,224 1,938 Yield Bushels 43.0 73.0 73.0 56.4 65.0 62.9 Production 1,000 Bushels 2,365 6,570 3,650 116,002 144,649 121,860 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Forecast. 2/ Percent of seeded acreage. Source: USDA NASS Crop Production, July 12, 2004. Winter Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield and Production, Selected States and United States, 2003-2004 Acres Harvested Yield Production State 2003 2004 1/ 2003 2004 1/ 2003 2004 1/ ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 Acres Bushels 1,000 Bushels Colorado 2,200 1,750 35.0 27.0 77,.000 47,250 Kansas 10,000 8,700 48.0 36.0 480,000 313,200 Missouri 870 940 61.0 50.0 53,070 47,000 Montana 1,720 1,550 37.0 38.0 63,640 58,900 Nebraska 1,820 1,800 46.0 32.0 83,720 57,600 Oklahoma 4,600 4,600 39.0 36.0 179,400 165,600 South Dakota 1,380 1,250 43.0 35.0 59,340 43,750 Texas 3,450 3,700 28.0 31.0 96,600 114,700 Washington 1,800 1,700 65.0 66.0 117,000 112,200 United States 36,541 34,825 46.7 42.2 1,707,069 1,469,735 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Forecasted July 1, 2004. Source: USDA NASS Crop Production, July 12, 2004. U.S. GRAINS SUPPLY AND DISAPPEARANCE OUTLOOK ---------SUPPLY--------- MARKET YEAR DISAPPEARANCE 1/ Market CROP Begin- ---Domestic-- Year Average YEAR Pro- ning Im- Total Primary Ex- Ending Market duction stocks ports Use 2/ Other ports Total Stocks* Price -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Million bushels $/bu. Corn 2002/03 8,967 1,596 14 10,578 5,558 2,340 1,592 9,491 1,087 2.32 2003/04 10,114 1,087 10 11,211 5,800 2,565 1,950 10,315 896 2.40-2.45 2004/05 3/ 10,635 896 15 11,546 5,775 2,680 2,100 10,555 991 2.30-2.70 Soybeans 2002/03 2,756 208 5 2,969 1,615 130 1,045 2,791 178 5.53 2003/04 2,418 178 6 2,602 1,500 96 900 2,497 105 7.55 2004/05 3/ 2,940 105 5 3,050 1,645 146 1,050 2,841 210 5.70-6.70 Wheat 2002/03 1,606 777 77 2,460 918 197 854 1,969 491 3.56 2003/04 2,337 491 70 2,898 900 297 1,155 2,352 546 3.40 2004/05 3/ 2,059 546 60 2,665 915 281 975 2,171 494 3.20-3.80 Sorghum 2002/02 316 61 0 422 169 24 186 379 43 2.32 2003/04 411 43 0 454 190 20 200 410 44 2.35-2.40 2004/05 3/ 435 44 0 479 180 25 225 430 49 2.25-2.65 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Marketing year begins: Corn, Sorghum & Soybeans, September 1; Wheat, June/1. 2/ Primary uses: Corn & Sorghum = Feed; Soybeans = Crushing; Wheat = Food. 3/ Projection. Source: USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, July 12, 2004. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States, 2003-2004 July 1 June June June Other STATE Number on Feed 1/ Placements Marketings Disappearance 2/ 2004/ 2004/ 2004/ 2004/ 2003 2004 2003 2003 2004 2003 2003 2004 2003 2003 2004 2003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 Head % 1,000 Head % 1,000 Head % 1,000 Head % Arizona 266 295 111 34 31 91 32 28 88 2 2 100 California 490 520 106 73 69 95 63 62 98 5 7 140 Colorado 890 940 106 125 140 112 220 200 91 5 10 200 Idaho 255 240 94 63 47 75 67 60 90 1 2 200 Iowa 310 390 126 34 50 147 68 59 87 1 1 100 Kansas 2,160 2,090 97 415 400 96 510 540 106 15 20 133 Nebraska 1,690 1,850 109 270 285 106 500 435 87 10 10 100 New Mexico 115 124 108 21 26 124 13 19 146 3 1 33 Oklahoma 350 315 90 52 52 100 59 64 108 3 3 100 So. Dakota 167 173 104 27 20 74 55 34 62 3 1 33 Texas 2,820 2,760 98 470 455 97 520 495 95 10 10 100 Washington 160 150 94 39 34 87 38 38 100 1 1 100 Other States 250 270 108 49 30 61 82 43 52 2 2 100 United States 9,923 10,117 102 1,672 1,639 98 2,227 2,077 93 61 70 115 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death losses, movement from feedlots to pastures and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Source: USDA NASS Cattle on Feed, July 23, 2004. Cattle and Calves: Number by Class and Calf Crop, Nebraska and United States, July 1, 2002-2004 Class Nebraska United States 2002 2003 2004 2004/2003 2002 2003 2004 2004/2003 1,000 head Percent 1,000 head Percent ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle and calves 7,050 6,600 7,000 106 105,100 103,900 103,600 100 Cows and heifers that have calved 2,030 1,950 2,040 105 42,900 42,700 42,500 100 Beef cows 1,963 1,886 1,980 105 33,750 33,600 33,500 100 Milk cows 67 64 60 94 9,150 9,100 9,000 99 Heifers 500 pounds and over 1/ 16,200 15,900 15,950 100 For beef cow replacement 1/ 4,600 4,600 4,800 104 For milk cow replacement 1/ 3,700 3,600 3,600 100 Other heifers 1/ 7,900 7,700 7,550 98 Steers 500 pounds and over 1/ 14,500 14,200 14,200 100 Bulls 500 pounds and over 1/ 2,100 2,100 2,050 98 Calves under 500 pounds 1/ 29,400 29,000 28,900 100 Calf Crop 2/ 1,820 1,770 1,780 101 38,224 37,903 37,700 99 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ State totals not published. 2/ 2004 calf crop preliminary. Source: USDA NASS Cattle, July 23, 2004. Lamb Crop and Market Sheep and Lambs: Inventory by Region and United States, July 1, 2004 1/ Lambs Lambs -------Market Lambs-------- Market All Regions Born Expected Total Breeding Under 65to 85to Over Sheep Sheep Through After Lamb Ewes 1+ 65 84 105 105 Market and and June 30 3/ June 30 4/ Crop Jan. 1 lbs. lbs. lbs. lbs. Total Sheep Lambs Lambs ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------1,000 Head--------------------------------------------- Region 1 530 200 730 703 130 155 130 50 465 15 480 1,290 Region 2 560 120 680 783 355 120 30 15 520 10 530 1,540 Region 3 1,260 30 1,290 1,064 830 150 70 100 1,150 20 1,170 2,600 Region 4 620 50 670 492 240 135 85 55 515 15 530 1,180 Region 5 640 70 710 559 245 75 40 20 380 15 395 1,040 United States 3,610 470 4,080 3,601 1,800 635 355 240 3,030 75 3,105 7,650 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Lamb crop is lambs born in the Eastern States and lambs docked or branded in the Western States. 2/ States included in regions as follows: 1 - AZ, CA, ID, NV, OR, & WA; 2 - NM & TX; 3 - CO, MT, SD, UT, & WY; 4 - IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, & OK; 5 - all other states. 3/ Lambs born alive between January 1, through June 30, 2004. 4 Lambs expected to be born July through December 2004. Source: USDA NASS Sheep, July 23, 2004. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, Nebraska, 20 States and United States, 2003-2004 Nebraska 20 States United States Item and Quarter 2003 2004 2003 2004 2003 2004 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Milk Cows 1/ January-March 66 61 7,810 7,716 9,144 8,990 April-June 65 60 7,791 7,728 9,109 8,997 Milk Production 2/ January-March 297 267 37,258 37,076 43,069 42,701 April-June 294 265 38,134 38,004 43,965 43,702 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Source: USDA NASS Milk Production, July 16, 2004. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States , 2003-2004 1/ Milk Cows 2/ Milk per Cow 3/ Milk Production 3/ 2004/ Month 2003 2004 2003 2004 2003 2004 2003 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Thousands Pounds Million pounds Percent January 7,810 7,716 1,615 1,619 12,616 12,491 99 February 7,811 7,716 1,489 1,528 11,628 11,787 101 March 7,810 7,717 1,666 1,658 13,014 12,798 98 April 7,800 7,721 1,627 1,630 12,693 12,588 99 May 7,787 7,722 1,671 1,684 13,013 13,007 100 June 7,785 7,741 1,596 1,603 12,428 12,409 100 July 7,780 1,597 12,421 August 7,771 1,571 12,207 September 7,764 1,511 11,731 October 7,743 1,561 12,083 November 7,721 1,517 11,709 December 7,713 1,596 12,313 Annual 7,775 9,017 147,856 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ 2004 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Source: USDA NASS Milk Production, July 16, 2004.