ne-agri-facts NEBRASKA AGRI-FACTS Issue 18/2004 Released: 09/14/2004 by USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service Mark Harris, Director Dean C. Groskurth, Deputy Director ------------------------------------------------------------------------ P.O Box 81069 Location: 298 Federal Bldg Lincoln, NE 68501 Phone: (402) 437-5541 e-mail: nass-ne@nass.usda.gov Internet: http://www.nass.usda.gov/ne/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Dear producers and other data users: Information contained herein is the result of mail, phone and personal interview surveys conducted during the past few weeks. Special recognition and appreciation are extended to all producers and agribusinesses who provided data making these reports possible. Mark Harris Director ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Crop Summary Nebraska corn production based on conditions as of September 1, 2004, is forecast at 1.24 billion bushels, up 1 percent from last month and 10 percent above 2003. This production is fractionally above the previous high set in 1998. Average yield is forecast at a record high 157 bushels per acre, 2 bushels above last month, 11 bushels above 2003, and 10 bushels above the previous high set in 2001. Soybean production is forecast at 212 million bushels, 2 percent below last month, but 18 percent above last year and second highest on record behind 2001. Yield is forecast at 45 bushels per acre, down 1 bushel from August but up 5 bushels from 2003. Sorghum production is forecast at 35.7 million bushels, unchanged from the August forecast and 15 percent above last year. Yield is forecast at 85 bushels per acre, unchanged from August and up 23 bushels from last year. U.S. corn production is forecast at 11.0 billion bushels, based on September 1, 2004 conditions, up fractionally from last month and 8 percent above 2003. Yields are expected to average 149.4 bushels per acre, up 0.5 bushels from August and 7.2 bushels above last year. If realized, both production and yield would be the largest on record. Soybean production is forecast at 284 billion bushels, down 1 percent from August but up 17 percent from 2003. If realized, this would be the second highest production on record. Yields are forecast at 38.5 bushels per acre, down 0.6 bushel from August. Sorghum production is forecast at 472 million bushels, up 2 percent from last month and up 15 percent from 2003. Yield is forecast at 68.3 bushels per acre, up 1.1 bushels from August and 15.6 bushels from last year. Crop Summary: Acres Harvested, Yield and Production, Nebraska and United States, 2002-2004 ------------Nebraska------------ ---------United States-------------- Classification 2004/ 2004/ 2002 2003 2004 1/ 2003 2002 2003 2004 1/ 2003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corn for Grain Harvested 1,000 Acres 7,350 7,700 7,900 103 69,330 71,139 73,377 103 Yield Bushels 128.0 146.0 *157.0 108 129.3 142.2 149.4 105 Production 1,000 Bushels 940,800 1,124,200 *1,240,300 110 8,966,787 10,113,887 10,960,710 108 Soybeans for Beans Harvested 1,000 Acres 4,580 4,490 4,700 105 72,497 72,321 73,665 102 Yield Bushels 38.5 40.0 45.0 113 38.0 33.4 38.5 115 Production 1,000 Bushels 176,330 179,600 211,500 118 2,756,147 2,417,565 2,835,989 117 Sorghum for Grain Harvested 1,000 Acres 320 500 420 84 7,125 7,798 6,916 89 Yield Bushels 50.0 62.0 85.0 137 50.6 52.7 68.3 130 Production 1,000 Bushels 16,000 31,000 35,700 115 360,713 411,237 472,269 115 Sugarbeets Harvested 1,000 Acres 42.0 42.4 47.6 112 1,360.7 1,347.9 1,325.6 98 Yield Tons 18.1 20.3 20.0 99 20.4 22.7 21.5 95 Production 1,000 Tons 760 861 952 111 27,707 30,583 28,547 93 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Forecasted September 1, 2004. *Record. Source: USDA NASS Crop Production, September 10, 2004. Corn and Soybeans: Yield and Production, Selected States and United States, 2002-2003 and Forecasted September 1, 2004 ------------------Corn--------------------- --------------Soybeans------------------ Yield per Yield per State Acre Production Acre Production 2003 2004 1/ 2002 2003 2004 1/ 2003 2004 1/ 2002 2003 2004 1/ ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Bushels 1,000 bushels Bushels 1,000 bushels Illinois 164.0 170.0 1,471,500 1,812,200 1,963,500 36.5 44.0 453,650 374,125 433,400 Indiana 146.0 157.0 631,620 786,940 832,100 38.0 45.0 239,455 203,300 244,350 Iowa 157.0 163.0 1,931,550 1,884,000 1,988,600 32.0 40.0 499,200 337,600 414,000 Kansas 120.0 145.0 301,600 300,000 420,500 23.0 37.0 58,420 57,040 94,350 Minnesota 146.0 147.0 1,051,900 970,900 1,043,700 31.0 36.0 308,850 229,400 262,800 Missouri 108.0 144.0 283,500 302,400 417,600 29.0 38.0 170,000 143,260 187,720 Nebraska 146.0 157.0 940,800 1,124,200 1,240,300 40.0 45.0 176,330 179,600 211,500 Ohio 156.0 156.0 264,330 478,920 468,000 38.0 40.0 151,040 162,640 176,800 So.Dakota 111.0 118.0 308,750 427,350 466,100 27.0 33.0 126,790 113,130 136,620 United States 142.2 149.4 8,966,787 10,113,887 10,960,710 33.4 38.5 2,756,147 2,417,565 2,835,989 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Forecasted September 1, 2004. Source: USDA NASS Crop Production, September 10, 2004. U.S. Grains Supply and Disappearance Outlook --------Supply------------ -------Market Year-------- -----Dispppearance 1/----- Market Crop Begin- Domestic Year Average Year Pro- ning Im- Primary Ex- Ending Market duction stocks ports Total Use 2/ Other ports Total Stocks Price ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Million bushels $/bu. Corn 2002/03 8,967 1,596 14 10,578 5,563 2,340 1,588 9,491 1,087 2.32 2003/04 10,114 1,087 13 11,214 5,800 2,575 1,885 10,260 954 2.40 2004/05 3/ 10,961 954 15 11,929 5,850 2,770 2,100 10,720 1,209 2.00-2.40 Soybeans 2002/03 2,756 208 5 2,969 1,615 130 1,044 2,791 178 5.53 2003/04 2,418 178 6 2,602 1,535 76 885 2,497 105 7.35 2004/05 3/ 2,836 105 6 2,947 1,615 143 1,000 2,758 190 5.35-6.25 Wheat 2002/03 1,606 777 85 2,468 923 203 850 1,976 491 3.56 2003/04 2,337 491 72 2,900 911 284 1,159 2,354 546 3.40 2004/05 3/ 2,123 546 60 2,729 920 281 950 2,151 578 3.00-3.50 Sorghum 2002/03 361 61 0 422 170 24 184 379 43 2.32 2003/04 411 43 0 454 190 20 200 410 44 2.38 2004/05 3/ 472 44 0 517 180 50 225 455 62 1.90-2.30 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Marketing year begins: Corn, Sorghum & Soybeans, September 1; Wheat, June 1. 2/ Primary uses: Corn & Sorghum = Feed; Soybeans = Crushing; Wheat = Food. 3/ Projection. Source: USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, September 10, 2004. Crop Condition: Percent and Progress as of September 12, 2004 Corn: Crop Condition, Selected Soybean: Crop Condition, Selected State VP P F G EX State VP P F G EX Percent Percent -------------------------------------- --------------------------------------- CO 4 5 11 44 36 AR 1 6 22 46 25 IL 1 3 14 56 26 IL 1 4 19 56 20 IN 2 5 14 50 29 IN 4 5 19 50 22 IA 3 8 19 48 22 IA 3 9 22 49 17 KS 4 7 17 50 22 KS 1 5 18 60 16 KY 0 4 12 45 39 KY 0 3 13 51 33 MI 6 14 32 36 12 LA 2 19 34 36 9 MN 3 12 37 39 9 MI 5 12 39 33 11 MO 1 4 16 53 26 MN 4 13 42 36 5 NE 4 7 22 44 23 MS 0 5 15 45 35 NC 1 3 26 59 11 MO 3 7 27 50 13 ND 6 19 32 37 6 NE 5 12 31 40 12 OH 3 9 24 47 17 NC 1 4 24 60 11 PA 1 3 5 40 51 ND 5 15 36 40 4 SD 2 9 23 48 18 OH 5 10 28 44 13 TN 0 1 10 50 39 SD 1 9 25 52 13 TX 0 2 13 49 36 TN 2 4 14 56 24 WI 6 15 30 37 12 WI 5 13 31 38 13 18 Sts 3 7 21 47 22 18 Sts 3 8 26 48 15 Prev Wk 3 7 21 49 20 Prev Wk 3 9 26 47 15 Prev Yr 10 16 30 35 9 Prev Yr 9 17 33 33 8 -------------------------------------- --------------------------------------- Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress, September 13, 2004. Sorghum: Crop Condition Pasture and Range: Condition State VP P F G EX State VP P F G EX Percent Percent -------------------------------------- --------------------------------------- AR 1 2 35 51 11 AR 2 11 44 35 8 CO 1 12 34 43 10 CA 55 45 0 0 0 IL 0 1 9 72 18 CO 4 18 33 38 7 KS 4 10 26 45 15 FL 5 20 60 10 5 LA 0 6 52 42 0 IA 4 8 23 48 17 MO 0 4 26 60 10 ID 1 14 36 47 2 NE 6 14 42 32 6 KS 7 19 33 36 5 NM 0 25 38 34 3 KY 1 4 20 54 21 OK 0 1 10 59 30 MN 4 12 35 44 5 SD 10 19 48 20 3 MO 2 7 26 54 11 TX 1 7 24 49 19 MT 22 25 34 16 3 11 Sts 3 9 28 45 15 ND 21 16 30 30 3 Prev Wk 2 9 25 48 16 NE 21 27 31 21 0 Prev Yr 15 30 32 20 3 OK 1 3 19 56 21 SD 16 22 33 25 4 TN 0 4 17 64 15 TX 3 10 33 42 12 WI 2 8 30 51 9 WY 41 27 20 8 4 48 Sts 9 14 29 39 9 Prev Wk 9 14 27 40 10 Prev Yr 17 22 31 25 5 -------------------------------------- --------------------------------------- Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress, September 13, 2004.