ne-agri-facts NEBRASKA AGRI-FACTS Issue 22/2004 Released: 11/16/2004 by USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service Mark Harris, Director Dean C. Groskurth, Deputy Director ------------------------------------------------------------------------ P.O Box 81069 Location: 298 Federal Bldg Lincoln, NE 68501 Phone: (402) 437-5541 e-mail: nass-ne@nass.usda.gov Internet: http://www.nass.usda.gov/ne/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Dear producers and other data users: Information contained herein is the result of mail, phone and personal interview surveys conducted during the past few weeks. Special recognition and appreciation are extended to all producers and agribusinesses who provided data making these reports possible. Mark Harris Director For the PDF version of this report, go to the following address: http://www.nass.usda.gov/ne/agrifact/agf0422.pdf ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Nebraska November 1 Crop Report Nebraska's 2004 corn crop is forecast at a record high 1.33 billion bushels, unchanged from last month and 18 percent above 2003. Based on conditions as of November 1, yields are expected to average 168 bushels per acre, unchanged from the October forecast, while being 22 bushels above last year and 21 bushels above the previous record high set in 2001. Soybean production is forecast at 228 million bushels, a new record high, up 2 percent from last month and 25 percent above last year. Yields are expected to average a record high 48 bushels per acre, up one bushel from last month and 7.5 bushels per acre above 2003. Sorghum production is forecast at 37.8 million bushels, up 22 percent from last year. Yields are expected to average 90 bushels per acre, up 8 bushels from last month's forecast and 28 bushels above last year. U.S. November 1 Crop Report U.S. corn production is forecast at 11.7 billion bushels, up 1 percent from last month and 16 percent above 2003. Based on conditions as of November 1, the yield is expected to average 160.2 bushels per acre, up 1.8 bushels from October and 18.0 bushels above last year. If realized, both production and yield would be the largest on record. Soybean production is forecast at 3.15 billion bushels, up 1 percent from October and 28 percent above 2003. Based on November 1 conditions, yields are expected to average a record high 42.6 bushels per acre, up 0.6 bushel from October and 8.7 bushels above last year. Sorghum grain production is forecast at 472 million bushels, up 2 percent from last month and up 15 percent from last year. The U.S. sorghum yield forecast is 71.9 bushels per acre, up 1.5 bushels from October and up 19.2 bushels from last year. Crop Summary: Acres Harvested, Yield and Production, Nebraska and United States, 2002-2004 Nebraska United States ------------------------------------- --------------------------------------- Classification 2004/ 2004/ 2002 2003 2004 1/ 2003 2002 2003 2004 1/ 2003 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corn for Grain Harvested 1,000 Acres 7,350 7,700 7,900 103 69,330 71,139 73,311 103 Yield Bushels 128.0 146.0 *168.0 115 129.3 142.2 160.2 113 Production 1,000 Bushels 940,800 1,124,200 *1,327,200 118 8,966,787 10,113,887 11,740,920 116 Soybeans for Beans Harvested 1,000 Acres 4,580 4,500 4,750 106 72,497 72,476 73,990 102 Yield Bushels 38.5 40.5 *48.0 119 38.0 33.9 42.6 126 Production 1,000 Bushels 176,330 182,250 *228,000 125 2,756,147 2,453,665 3,150,441 128 Sorghum for Grain Harvested 1,000 Acres 320 500 420 84 7,125 7,798 6,559 84 Yield Bushels 50.0 62.0 90.0 145 50.6 52.7 71.9 136 Production 1,000 Bushels 16,000 31,000 37,800 122 360,713 411,237 471,572 115 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Forecasted November 1, 2004. *Record. Source: USDA NASS Crop Production, November 12, 2004. Corn and Soybeans: Yield and Production, Selected States and United States, 2002-2004 and Forecasted November 1, 2004 Corn Soybeans --------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------ Yield per Yield per State Acre Production Acre Production 2003 2004 1/ 2002 2003 2004 1/ 2003 2004 1/ 2002 2003 2004 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Bushels 1,000 bushels Bushels 1,000 bushels ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Illinois 164.0 180.0 1,471,500 1,812,200 2,079,000 37.0 50.0 453,650 379,620 492,500 Indiana 146.0 169.0 631,620 786,940 929,500 38.0 53.0 239,455 204,060 287,790 Iowa 157.0 183.0 1,931,550 1,884,000 2,250,900 32.5 49.0 499,200 342,875 497,350 Kansas 120.0 151.0 301,600 300,000 415,250 23.0 41.0 58,420 57,040 110,700 Minnesota 146.0 157.0 1,051,900 970,900 1,083,300 32.0 34.0 308,850 238,400 244,800 Missouri 108.0 159.0 283,500 302,400 453,150 29.5 46.0 170,000 146,025 227,240 Nebraska 146.0 168.0 940,800 1,124,200 1,327,200 40.5 48.0 176,330 182,250 228,000 Ohio 156.0 160.0 264,330 478,920 496,000 38.5 47.0 151,040 164,780 207,740 S.Dakota 111.0 127.0 308,750 427,350 520,700 27.5 34.0 126,790 115,500 139,060 U.S. 142.2 160.2 8,966,787 10,113,887 11,740,920 33.9 42.6 2,756,147 2,453,665 3,150,441 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Forecasted November 1, 2004. Source: USDA NASS Crop Production, November 12, 2004. U.S. GRAINS SUPPLY AND DISAPPEARANCE OUTLOOK ---------SUPPLY--------- MARKET YEAR DISAPPEARANCE 1/ Market CROP Begin- ---Domestic-- Year Average YEAR Pro- ning Im- Total Primary Ex- Ending Market duction stocks ports Use 2/ Other ports Total Stocks* Price -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Million bushels $/bu. Corn 2002/03 8,967 1,596 14 10,578 5,563 2,340 1,588 9,491 1,087 2.32 2003/04 10,114 1,087 14 11,215 5,783 2,577 1,897 10,257 958 2.42 2004/05 3/ 11,741 958 15 12,714 6,075 2,770 2,050 10,895 1,819 1.70-2.10 Soybeans 2002/03 2,756 208 5 2,969 1,615 130 1,044 2,791 178 5.53 2003/04 2,454 178 6 2,638 1,530 111 885 2,525 112 7.34 2004/05 3/ 3,150 112 6 3,269 1,645 153 1,010 2,808 460 4.55-5.35 Wheat 2002/03 1,606 777 85 2,468 923 203 850 1,976 491 3.56 2003/04 2,345 491 72 2,909 911 291 1,159 2,362 547 3.40 2004/05 3/ 2,158 547 65 2,770 920 307 975 2,202 568 3.20-3.50 Sorghum 2002/03 361 61 0 422 170 24 184 194 43 2.32 2003/04 411 43 0 454 200 20 201 220 34 2.39 2004/05 3/ 472 34 0 505 195 50 200 245 60 1.55-1.95 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Marketing year begins: Corn, Sorghum & Soybeans, September 1; Wheat, June 1. 2/ Primary uses: Corn & Sorghum = Feed; Soybeans = Crushing; Wheat = Food. 3/ Projection. Source: USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, November 12, 2004. U.S. Agricultural Exports, by Leading States: Estimated Value by Commodity Group, FY 2003 Commodity United Leading 10 States, by value Group States 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Million Dollars Ca Ia Tx Il Ne Ks Mn Wa ND In Total 56,186.4 8,210.0 3,637.8 3,427.8 3,363.5 3,041.1 2,969.6 2,637.3 1,912.0 1,767.3 1,622.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Soybeans and Ia Il Mn In Ne Mo Oh SD Ak ND products 8,287.5 1,501.0 1,364.1 928.7 720.0 530.2 511.2 454.2 381.2 290.1 261.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Feed grains Ia Il Mn Ne In Ks Tx Wi Mo SD and products 6,731.0 1,298.9 1,003.2 711.1 672.0 435.9 401.9 316.2 266.7 217.4 216.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Live animals Ne Ks Tx Ia Co Il Mn Ky Ca Wi and meat 6,483.0 1,047.9 842.3 756.1 584.1 311.4 270.1 250.4 228.9 218.8 214.6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat and Ks ND Wa Mt Ok Tx Mn Id Oh Ca products 5,326.8 756.2 582.3 351.0 311.3 280.3 245.6 227.1 198.4 190.5 165.8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Vegetables Ca Wa Id Wi Mn Or Fl Mi ND Az and preps. 4,675.6 2,267.6 438.7 242.5 214.5 192.9 139.0 137.7 121.7 120.6 76.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fruit and Ca Fl Wa Or NY Mi Tx Ha Az Me preps. 3,545.3 1,898.5 569.0 552.6 107.5 51.2 48.2 40.7 35.7 23.2 20.9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton and Tx Ca Ms Ak Ga Tn NC. La Az Mo linters 2,726.7 802.8 335.1 305.4 263.4 249.1 129.1 127.2 116.6 99.8 96.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Poultry and Ga Ak NC Al Ms Tx In Pa Va Ca products 2,105.4 226.5 217.5 189.7 181.9 138.4 109.1 102.9 64.2 58.7 56.7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Feeds and Ks Tx NM Ky Wi Ne Mo ND Co Ca fodders 1,998.7 287.6 278.1 134.6 127.2 102.9 73.1 66.5 56.4 50.6 49.7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Hides and Ne Ks Tx Co Wi Ca Ut Mn Pa Il skins 1,790.3 372.6 333.2 282.9 129.5 109.7 61.5 53.4 52.1 51.8 48.6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ca Ga Tx Or NM Ha Az Ok La Al Tree nuts 1,489.9 1,378.1 20.8 18.5 18.5 16.7 15.0 7.4 4.6 2.8 2.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dairy Ca Wi Mn Id NY Pa Wa Tx Ia Oh products 1,033.6 224.9 221.5 74.4 55.1 54.5 43.9 39.6 32.7 29.3 24.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ar Ca La Ms Tx Mo Rice 1,021.2 451.7 243.2 134.9 74.1 66.9 50.4 na na na na -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Tobacco, un- NC Ky Tn Va SC Ga manufactured 998.6 356.0 262.3 82.6 67.7 60.4 57.4 na na na na -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ca Az Or Ks Fl ND In Tx Ms Ga Seeds 813.1 201.3 81.6 50.5 38.1 37.0 35.5 30.3 24.7 20.3 19.6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Animal Ne Ks Tx Co Wi Ia Ca Il Pa Mn fats 538.5 115.5 101.2 85.3 36.7 24.8 22.0 19.4 16.9 15.8 15.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Peanuts and Ga Tx Al Fl NC Ok Va SC NM products 187.7 84.4 36.7 23.0 15.6 14.5 4.4 4.3 2.6 2.1 na -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Sunflowerseed ND SD Ks Mn Co Ne Tx and oil 117.0 81.1 17.2 7.3 4.0 2.4 1.2 1.2 na na na -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cottonseed Tx Ca Ms Ar Ga Tn NC La Az Mo and prods. 102.9 30.9 12.2 11.6 10.4 9.0 4.8 4.5 4.5 3.9 3.6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ca ND Il Fl Pa Wa Tx Or Oh Wi Other 6,213.9 1,055.6 514.3 461.6 378.0 352.2 307.3 214.2 197.7 143.6 116.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- na = not applicable. Other = Sugar and tropical products, minor oilseeds, essential oils, beverages other than juice, nursery and greenhouse, wine, and misc. vegetable products. Source: USDA ERS http://www.ers.usda.gov/data/stateexports/top10sx.xls