ne-agri-facts NEBRASKA AGRI-FACTS Issue 12/2005 Released: 06/21/2005 by USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service Mark Harris, Director Dean C. Groskurth, Deputy Director ------------------------------------------------------------------------ P.O Box 81069 Location: 298 Federal Bldg Lincoln, NE 68501 Phone: (402) 437-5541 e-mail: nass-ne@nass.usda.gov Internet: http://www.nass.usda.gov/ne/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Dear Producers and Data Users: Information contained herein is the result of mail, phone and personal interview surveys conducted during the past few weeks. Special recognition and appreciation are extended to all producers and agribusinesses who provided data making these reports possible. Mark Harris Director For the PDF version of this report, go to the following address: http://www.nass.usda.gov/ne/agrifact/agf0512.pdf ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 2005 Wheat Production Forecast Up 20% From Last Year Nebraska's 2005 winter wheat crop, based on June 1 conditions, is forecast at 73.1 million bushels, down 4 percent from a month ago but up 20 percent from last year's crop. Average yield is forecast at 43 bushels per acre, down 2 bushels from last month but 6 bushels greater than last year, and 3 bushels above the ten-year average. Acreage to be harvested for grain is estimated at 1.70 million acres, unchanged from last month but up 50,000 acres from last year. In the major wheat growing areas, as of May 29, topsoil moisture supplies were rated mostly adequate with subsoil moisture supplies mostly adequate to short. Wheat crop condition rated 39 percent good to excellent with development at a near normal pace of 64 percent headed. Insect pressure has been light, however, wheat diseases were impacting some fields. Winter Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield and Production, Nebraska, and United States, 2003-2005 ------Nebraska------- -------United States------- Classification 2003 2004 2005 1/ 2003 2004 2005 1/ ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Winter Wheat Harvested for Grain 2/ Percent 95.8 89.2 94.4 81.0 79.5 84.3 For harvest 1,000 Acres 1,820 1,650 1,700 36,753 34,462 35,069 Yield Bushels 46.0 37.0 43.0 46.7 43.5 44.1 Production 1,000 Bushels 83,720 61,050 73,100 1,716,721 1,499,434 1,545,971 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Forecast. 2/ Percent of seeded acreage. Source: USDA NASS Crop Production, June 10, 2005. Winter Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield and Production, Selected States and United States, 2004-2005 Acres Harvested Yield Production 2004 2005 1/ 2004 2005 1/ 2004 2005 1/ ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 Acres Bushels 1,000 Bushels Colorado 1,700 2,450 27.0 32.0 45,900 78,400 Kansas 8,500 9,600 37.0 40.0 314,500 384,000 Missouri 930 600 52.0 49.0 48,360 29,400 Montana 1,630 2,050 41.0 41.0 66,830 84,050 Nebraska 1,650 1,700 37.0 43.0 61,050 73,100 Oklahoma 4,700 4,300 35.0 34.0 164,500 146,200 South Dakota 1,250 1,400 45.0 47.0 56,250 65,800 Texas 3,500 3,500 31.0 30.0 108,500 105,000 Washington 1,750 1,850 67.0 69.0 117,250 127,650 United States 34,462 35,069 43.5 44.1 1,499,434 1,545,971 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Forecasted June 1, 2005. Source: USDA NASS Crop Production, June 10, 2005. U.S. Grains Supply and Disappearance Outlook ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Market Year : : : Supply : Disappearance 1/ : : :-----------------------------:---------------------------: Market : Crop : Begin- :---Domestic--: : Year : Average Year : Pro- ning Im- Total: Primary : Ex- Total : Ending : Market : duction stocks ports : Use 2/ Other: ports : Stocks : Price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Million Bushels $/bu. Corn 2003/04 10,089 1,087 14 11,190 5,798 2,537 1,897 10,232 958 2.42 2004/05 11,807 958 10 12,775 6,000 2,760 1,800 10,560 2,215 2.00-2.10 2005/063 10,985 2,215 10 13,210 5,850 2,870 1,950 10,670 2,540 1.55-1.95 Soybeans 2003/04 2,454 178 6 2,638 1,530 116 880 2,525 112 7.34 2004/05 3,141 112 5 3,258 1,675 153 1,110 2,938 320 5.70 2005/063 2,895 320 3 3,218 1,680 149 1,135 2,964 255 4.95-5.95 Wheat 2003/04 2,345 491 63 2,899 907 287 1,159 2,353 546 3.40 2004/05 2,158 546 71 2,776 895 294 1,060 2,249 527 3.39 2005/063 2,140 527 70 2,737 890 278 950 2,118 619 2.65-3.15 Sorghum 2003/04 411 43 0 454 180 40 201 421 34 2.39 2004/053 455 34 0 488 195 52 175 422 66 1.65-1.75 2005/063 405 66 0 471 170 53 180 403 68 1.35-1.75 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year begins: Corn, Sorghum & Soybeans, September 1; Wheat, June 1. 2/ Primary uses: Corn & Sorghum = Feed; Soybeans = Crushing; Wheat = Food. 3/ Projection. Source: USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, June 10, 2005. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States , 2004-2005 1/ Milk Production 3/ Month Milk Cows 2/ Milk per Cow 3/ 2005 as % 2004 2005 2004 2005 2004 2005 of 2004 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thousands Pounds Million pounds Percent January 8,044 8,083 1,624 1,640 13,061 13,258 102 February 8,051 8,076 1,531 1,519 12,329 12,270 100 March 8,059 8,095 1,661 1,702 13,387 13,779 103 April 8,063 8,109 1,636 1,683 13,194 13,647 103 May 8,064 8,118 1,692 1,754 13,641 14,240 104 June 8,083 1,607 12,988 July 8,096 1,623 13,143 August 8,102 1,601 12,970 September 8,104 1,533 12,426 October 8,103 1,583 12,824 November 8,102 1,531 12,404 December 8,097 1,610 13,037 Annual 8,081 19,232 155,404 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2004 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Source: USDA NASS Milk Production, June 16, 2005. Cattle On Feed Nebraska Cattle on Feed Up 2 Percent Nebraska feedlots, with capacities of 1,000 or more head, contained 2.05 million cattle on feed on June 1. The inventory was up 2 percent from last year and 6 percent above June 1, 2003. Placements during May totaled 360,000 head, down 8 percent from 2004 but equal to 2003. Fed cattle marketings for the month of May totaled 480,000 head, up 2 percent from last year but 4 percent below May two years ago. Other disappearance during May totaled 20,000 head compared with 10,000 head last year and two years ago. U.S. Cattle on Feed Up 1 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.77 million head on June 1, 2005. The inventory was 1 percent above June 1, 2004 and 2 percent above June 1, 2003. Placements in feedlots during May totaled 2.22 million, 6 percent below 2004 and 4 percent below 2003. Marketings of fed cattle during May totaled 2.0 million, 1 percent below 2004 and 11 percent below 2003. Other disappearance totaled 96,000 during May, 22 percent above 2004 and 48 percent above 2003. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States, 2003-2004 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : June 1 : May : May : May Other : Number on Feed 1/ : Placements : Marketings : Disappearance 2/ ---------------:---------------------:-------------------:-------------------:---------------------- : 2005/: 2005/: 2005/: 2005/ STATE : 2004 2005 2004 : 2004 2005 2004 : 2004 2005 2004 : 2004 2005 2004 ---------------:---------------------:-------------------:-------------------:---------------------- : 1,000 Head Percent :1,000 Head Percent :1,000 Head Percent : 1,000 Head Percent ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Arizona 294 329 112 29 32 110 28 29 104 2 2 100 California 520 515 99 91 82 90 63 62 98 8 5 63 Colorado 1,010 970 96 270 165 61 185 150 81 15 15 100 Idaho 255 245 96 74 61 82 67 54 81 2 2 100 Iowa 400 435 109 50 55 110 63 73 116 2 2 100 Kansas 2,250 2,280 101 495 510 103 465 465 100 20 25 125 Nebraska 2,010 2,050 102 390 360 92 470 480 102 10 20 200 New Mexico 118 127 108 27 30 111 12 16 133 2 1 50 Oklahoma 330 325 98 92 86 93 70 64 91 2 2 100 So. Dakota 188 186 99 28 28 100 37 38 103 3 4 133 Texas 2,810 2,890 103 740 750 101 480 480 100 10 10 100 Washington 170 137 81 38 26 68 42 34 81 1 2 200 Other States 285 280 98 46 38 83 44 52 118 2 6 300 United States 10,640 10,769 101 2,370 2,223 94 2,026 1,997 99 79 96 122 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death losses, movement from feedlots to pastures and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Source: USDA NASS Cattle on Feed June 17, 2005. Price Reactions After USDA Crop Reports ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Soybeans ------------------:---------------------------------------------------------- USDA Report : Day After Report : Week After Report and : Number : Average : Number : Average Price reaction : of Reports : Price Change : Reports : Price Change ------------------:------------------------------:--------------------------- : Number : Cents Per Bu : Number : Cents Per Bu ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop Production 1985-2004 Price Increases 48 10.5 51 15.8 No Price Change (NC) 3 NC 2 NC Price Decreases 49 -11.2 47 -18.2 Total 100 100 Grain Stocks 1984-2004 Price Increases 36 10.1 36 16.8 No Price Change (NC) 1 NC 1 NC Price Decreases 48 -11.4 48 -20.1 Total 85 85 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Wheat ------------------:---------------------------------------------------------- USDA Report : Day After Report : Week After Report and : Number : Average : Number : Average Price reaction : of Reports : Price Change : Reports : Price Change ------------------:------------------------------:--------------------------- : Number : Cents Per Bu : Number : Cents Per Bu ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop Production 1987-2004 Price Increases 48 5.8 52 9.2 No Price Change (NC) 9 NC 7 NC Price Decreases 47 -4.8 45 -12.8 Total 104 104 Grain Stocks 1984-2004 Price Increases 38 5.0 32 9.1 No Price Change (NC) 7 NC 7 NC Price Decreases 40 -5.2 46 -10.8 Total 85 85 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: USDA NASS Price Reactions After USDA Crop Reports, March 2005