ne-agri-facts NEBRASKA AGRI-FACTS Issue 14/2005 Released: 07/26/2005 by USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service Mark Harris, Director Dean C. Groskurth, Deputy Director ------------------------------------------------------------------------ P.O Box 81069 Location: 298 Federal Bldg Lincoln, NE 68501 Phone: (402) 437-5541 e-mail: nass-ne@nass.usda.gov Internet: http://www.nass.usda.gov/ne/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Dear producers and other data users: Information contained herein is the result of mail, phone and personal interview surveys conducted during the past few weeks. Special recognition and appreciation are extended to all producers and agribusinesses who provided data making these reports possible. Mark Harris Director ------------------------------------------------------------------------ July 2005 Wheat and Oat Production Forecast Based on July 1 conditions, Nebraska's 2005 winter wheat crop is forecast at 69.7 million bushels, down 5 percent from last month but 14 percent above last year's crop. Average yield is forecast at 41 bushels per acre, 2 bushels below last month but 4 bushels above last year. Acreage to be harvested for grain is estimated at 1.70 million acres, 50,000 acres more than last year. Wheat harvest started the third full week of June and has kept a near normal pace. Oat production is forecast at 4.38 million bushels, up 17 percent from last year. Acreage for harvest, at 60,000 acres, is up 9 percent from 2004. Average yield, at 73 bushels per acre, is equal to the record high yield set two years ago and 5 bushels per acre above last year. Winter Wheat and Oats: Area Harvested, Yield and Production, Nebraska, and United States, 2003-2005 ------Nebraska------- ------United States------- Crop 2003 2004 2005 1/ 2003 2004 2005 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Winter Wheat Harvested for Grain 2/ Percent 95.8 89.2 94.4 81.0 79.5 82.8 For harvest 1,000 Acres 1,820 1,650 1,700 36,753 34,462 34,271 Yield Bushels 46.0 37.0 41.0 46.7 43.5 44.5 Production 1,000 Bushels 83,720 61,050 69,700 1,716,721 1,499,434 1,525,302 Oats Harvested for Grain 2/ Percent 40.9 39.3 40.0 48.3 43.9 45.5 For harvest 1,000 Acres 90 55 60 2,220 1,792 1,976 Yield Bushels 73.0 68.0 73.0 65.0 64.7 66.5 Production 1,000 Bushels 6,570 3,740 4,380 144,383 115,935 131,314 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Forecast. 2/ Percent of seeded acreage. Source: USDA NASS Crop Production, July 12, 2005 Winter Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield and Production, Selected States and United States, 2004-2005 Acres Harvested Yield Production State 2004 2005 1/ 2004 2005 1/ 2004 2005 1/ ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 Acres Bushels 1,000 Bushels Colorado 1,700 2,400 27.0 27.0 45,900 64,800 Kansas 8,500 9,600 37.0 39.0 314,500 374,400 Missouri 930 570 52.0 57.0 48,360 32,490 Montana 1,630 2,050 41.0 43.0 66,830 88,150 Nebraska 1,650 1,700 37.0 41.0 61,050 69,700 Oklahoma 4,700 3,900 35.0 33.0 164,500 128,700 South Dakota 1,250 1,400 45.0 49.0 56,250 68,600 Texas 3,500 3,200 31.0 31.0 108,500 99,200 Washington 1,750 1,850 67.0 69.0 117,250 127,650 United States 34,462 34,271 43.5 44.5 1,499,434 1,525,302 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Forecasted July 1, 2005. Source: USDA NASS Crop Production, July 12, 2005. U.S. Grains Supply and Disappearance Outlook ---------Supply--------- Market Year Disappearance 1/ Market Crop Begin- ---Domestic-- Year Average Year Pro- ning Im- Total Primary Ex- Ending Market duction stocks ports Use 2/ Other ports Total Stocks Price -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Million bushels $/bu. Corn 2003/04 10,089 1,087 14 11,190 5,798 2,537 1,897 10,232 958 2.42 2004/05 11,807 958 10 12,775 6,150 2,685 1,825 10,660 2,115 2.00-2.10 2005/06 3/ 10,785 2,115 10 12,910 5,850 2,870 1,950 10,670 2,240 1.70-2.10 Soybeans 2003/04 2,454 178 6 2,638 1,530 116 880 2,525 112 7.34 2004/05 3,141 112 5 3,258 1,690 169 1,110 2,969 290 5.80 2005/06 3/ 2,890 290 3 3,183 1,690 148 1,135 2,973 210 5.10-6.10 Wheat 2003/04 2,345 491 63 2,899 907 287 1,159 2,353 546 3.40 2004/05 2,158 546 71 2,776 895 281 1,060 2,236 540 3.40 2005/06 3/ 2,208 540 70 2,818 890 278 950 2,118 700 2.60-3.10 Sorghum 2003/04 411 43 0 454 180 40 201 421 34 2.39 2004/05 455 34 0 488 200 52 190 442 46 1.65-1.75 2005/06 3/ 400 46 0 446 170 53 180 403 43 1.50-1.90 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Marketing year begins: Corn, Sorghum & Soybeans, September 1; Wheat, June 1. 2/ Primary uses: Corn & Sorghum = Feed; Soybeans = Crushing; Wheat = Food. 3/ Projection. Source: USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, July 12, 2005. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States, 2004-2005 July 1 June June June Other STATE Number on Feed 1/ Placements Marketings Disappearance 2/ 2005/ 2005/ 2005/ 2005/ 2004 2005 2004 2004 2005 2004 2004 2005 2004 2004 2005 2004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 Head % 1,000 Head % 1,000 Head % 1,000 Head % Arizona 295 322 109 31 29 94 28 35 125 2 1 50 California 520 520 100 69 73 106 62 63 102 7 5 71 Colorado 940 910 97 145 130 90 205 180 88 10 10 100 Idaho 240 260 108 47 70 149 60 54 90 2 1 50 Iowa 390 415 106 50 49 98 59 68 115 1 1 100 Kansas 2,090 2,200 105 400 400 100 540 465 86 20 15 75 Nebraska 1,850 1,820 98 285 290 102 435 510 117 10 10 100 New Mexico 124 132 106 26 26 100 19 18 95 1 3 300 Oklahoma 315 320 102 52 54 104 64 58 91 3 1 33 So. Dakota 173 161 93 20 26 130 34 48 141 1 3 300 Texas 2,760 2,950 107 455 550 121 495 480 97 10 10 100 Washington 165 142 86 37 41 111 41 35 85 1 1 100 Other States 270 250 93 30 31 103 43 59 137 2 2 100 United States 10,132 10,402 103 1,647 1,769 107 2,085 2,073 99 70 63 90 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death losses, movement from feedlots to pastures and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Source: USDA NASS Cattle on Feed, July 22, 2005. Cattle and Calves: Number by Class and Calf Crop, Nebraska and United States, July 1, 2003-2005 1/ Class United States 2003 2004 2005 2005/2004 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------1,000 head----------------- Percent Cattle and calves 103,900 103,600 104,500 101 Cows and heifers that have calved 42,700 42,500 42,800 101 Beef cows 33,600 33,500 33,750 101 Milk cows 9,100 9,000 9,050 101 Heifers 500 pounds and over 15,900 15,950 16,200 102 For beef cow replacement 4,600 4,800 5,000 104 For milk cow replacement 3,600 3,600 3,700 103 Other heifers 7,700 7,550 7,500 99 Steers 500 pounds and over 14,200 14,200 14,400 101 Bulls 500 pounds and over 2,100 2,050 2,100 102 Calves under 500 pounds 29,000 28,900 29,000 100 Calf Crop 2/ 37,903 37,625 37,800 100 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ State totals have been discontinued. 2/ 2005 calf crop preliminary. Source: USDA NASS Cattle, July 22, 2005. Lamb Crop and Market Sheep and Lambs: Inventory by Region and United States, July 1, 2005 1/ Lambs Lambs -------Market Lambs-------- Market All Regions /2 Born Expected Total Breeding Under 65to 85to Over Sheep Sheep Through After Lamb Ewes 1+ 65 84 105 105 Market and and June 30 3/ June 30 4/ Crop Jan. 1 lbs. lbs. lbs. lbs. Total Sheep Lambs Lambs ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------1,000 Head--------------------------------------------- Region 1 540 200 740 700 140 150 120 55 465 30 495 1,300 Region 2 580 110 690 747 335 115 25 15 490 10 500 1,500 Region 3 1,260 30 1,290 1,058 820 150 80 120 1,170 20 1,190 2,650 Region 4 610 50 660 489 240 135 85 55 515 20 535 1,200 Region 5 660 80 740 579 275 85 40 15 415 10 425 1,150 United States 3,650 470 4,120 3,573 1,810 635 350 260 3,055 90 3,145 7,800 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Lamb crop is lambs born in the Eastern States and lambs docked or branded in the Western States. 2/ States included in regions as follows: 1 - AZ, CA, ID, NV, OR, & WA; 2 - NM & TX; 3 - CO, MT, SD, UT, & WY; 4 - IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, & OK; 5 - all other states. 3/ Lambs born alive between January 1, through June 30, 2005. 4/ Lambs expected to be born July through December 2005. Source: USDA NASS Sheep, July 22, 2005. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, Nebraska, and United States, 2004-2005 Nebraska United States Item and Quarter 2003 2004 2003 2004 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Milk Cows 1/ January-March 61 60 8,993 8,996 April-June 60 60 9,001 9,035 Milk Production 2/ January-March 267 268 42,759 43,242 April-June 266 279 43,824 45,633 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Source: USDA NASS Milk Production, July 18, 2005. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 23 Selected States , 2004-2005 1/ Milk Cows 2/ Milk per Cow 3/ Milk Production 3/ 2005/ Month 2004 2005 2004 2005 2004 2005 2004 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Thousands Pounds Million pounds Percent January 8,044 8,083 1,624 1,640 13,061 13,258 102 February 8,051 8,076 1,531 1,519 12,329 12,270 100 March 8,059 8,095 1,661 1,702 13,387 13,779 103 April 8,063 8,109 1,636 1,683 13,194 13,647 103 May 8,064 8,121 1,692 1,757 13,641 14,266 105 June 8,083 8,130 1,607 1,683 12,988 13,684 105 July 8,096 1,623 13,143 August 8,102 1,601 12,970 September 8,104 1,533 12,426 October 8,103 1,583 12,824 November 8,102 1,531 12,404 December 8,097 1,610 13,037 Annual 8,081 19,232 155,404 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ 2005 revised. 2/Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Source: USDA NASS Milk Production, July 18, 2005.