ne-agri-facts Released: 06/27/2006 Issue 12/2006 NEBRASKA AGRI-FACTS USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service Nebraska Field Office 100 Centennial Mall North, Suite 298, Lincoln, Nebraska 68508 Phone: 402-437-5541 E-mail: nass-ne@nass.usda.gov Internet: www.nass.usda.gov Mark Harris, Director Dean Groskurth, Deputy Director ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Dear Producers and Data Users: Information contained herein is the result of mail, phone and personal interview surveys conducted during the past few weeks. Special recognition and appreciation are extended to all producers and agribusinesses who provided data making these reports possible. Mark Harris Director ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 2006 Wheat Production Forecast Down 18% Percent From Last Year Nebraska's 2006 winter wheat crop, based on June 1 conditions, is forecast at 56.1 million bushels, down 11 percent from a month ago and 18 percent from last year’s crop. Average yield is forecast at 34 bushels per acre, down 4 bushels from last month and 5 bushels below last year and the ten-year average. However, this is above 2002’s drought reduced yield of 33 bushels per acre and production of 50.2 million bushels. Acreage to be harvested for grain is estimated at 1.65 million acres, unchanged from last month but down 110,000 acres from last year. Precipitation during April and May averaged two inches or less for many Panhandle and southwestern producers. This combined with dry conditions coming into the spring has resulted in nearly half the crop rated in poor or very poor condition. Winter Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield and Production, Nebraska, and United States, 2004-2006 ------Nebraska------- -------United States------- Classification 2004 2005 2006 1/ 2004 2005 2006 1/ ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Winter Wheat Harvested for Grain 2/ Percent 89.2 95.1 94.3 79.5 83.6 75.3 For harvest 1,000 Acres 1,650 1,760 1,650 34,462 33,794 31,177 Yield Bushels 37.0 39.0 34.0 43.5 44.4 40.5 Production 1,000 Bushels 61,050 68,640 56,100 1,499,434 1,499,129 1,263,766 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Forecast. 2/ Percent of seeded acreage. Source: USDA NASS Crop Production, June 9, 2006 Winter Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield and Production, Selected States and United States, 2005-2006 Acres Harvested Yield Production 2005 2006 1/ 2005 2006 1/ 2005 2006 1/ ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 Acres Bushels 1,000 Bushels Colorado 2,200 2,000 24.0 23.0 52,800 46,000 Kansas 9,500 9,400 40.0 31.0 380,000 291,400 Missouri 540 870 54.0 53.0 29,160 46,110 Montana 2,100 1,950 45.0 39.0 94,500 76,050 Nebraska 1,760 1,650 39.0 34.0 68,640 56,100 Oklahoma 4,000 3,100 32.0 22.0 128,000 68,200 South Dakota 1,490 1,250 44.0 38.0 65,560 47,500 Texas 3,000 1,300 32.0 25.0 96,000 32,500 Washington 1,800 1,800 67.0 68.0 120,600 122,400 United States 33,794 31,177 44.4 40.5 1,499,129 1,263,766 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Forecasted June 1, 2006. Source: USDA NASS Crop Production, June 9, 2006 U.S. Grains Supply and Disappearance Outlook ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Market Year : : : Supply : Disappearance 1/ : : :-----------------------------:---------------------------: Market : Crop : Begin- :---Domestic--: : Year : Average Year : Pro- ning Im- Total: Primary : Ex- Total : Ending : Market : duction stocks ports : Use 2/ Other: ports : Stocks : Price -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Million Bushels $/bu. Corn 2004/05 11,807 958 11 12,776 6,162 2,686 1,814 10,662 2,114 2.06 2005/06 11,112 2,114 10 13,236 6,000 2,985 2,075 11,060 2,176 1.95-2.05 2006/07 3/ 10,550 2,176 10 12,736 5,950 3,545 2,150 11,645 1,091 2.25-2.65 Soybeans 2004/05 3,124 112 6 3,242 1,696 187 1,103 2,986 256 5.74 2005/06 3,086 256 4 3,346 1,715 162 900 2,777 570 5.65 2006/07 3/ 3,080 570 4 3,654 1,750 159 1,090 2,999 655 5.10-6.10 Wheat 2004/05 2,158 546 71 2,775 905 268 1,063 2,235 540 3.40 2005/06 2,105 540 80 2,725 910 268 1,000 2,178 547 3.42 2006/07 3/ 1,814 547 100 2,461 915 230 900 2,045 416 3.60-4.20 Sorghum 2004/05 454 34 0 487 191 55 184 430 57 1.79 2005/06 394 57 0 451 150 55 195 400 51 1.70-1.80 2006/07 3/ 360 51 0 411 120 60 185 365 46 2.05-2.45 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Marketing year begins: Corn, Sorghum & Soybeans, September 1; Wheat, June 1. 2/ Primary uses: Corn & Sorghum = Feed; Soybeans = Crushing; Wheat = Food. 3/ Projection. Source: USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, June 9, 2006 Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 23 Selected States , 2005-2006 1/ Milk Production 3/ Month Milk Cows 2/ Milk per Cow 3/ 2006 as % 2005 2006 2005 2006 2005 2006 of 2005 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thousands Pounds Million pounds Percent January 8,087 8,195 1,643 1,710 13,287 14,014 105 February 8,084 8,206 1,522 1,587 12,301 13,022 106 March 8,099 8,228 1,707 1,775 13,825 14,604 106 April 8,117 8,240 1,690 1,727 13,717 14,228 104 May 8,131 8,259 1,760 1,782 14,311 14,714 103 June 8,138 1,690 13,755 July 8,151 1,683 13,715 August 8,162 1,671 13,640 September 8,167 1,599 13,057 October 8,168 1,637 13,373 November 8,167 1,592 13,002 December 8,179 1,663 13,599 Annual 8,138 19,857 161,582 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2006 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Source: USDA NASS Milk Production, June 16, 2006 Cattle On Feed Nebraska Cattle on Feed Up 3 Percent Nebraska feedlots, with capacities of 1,000 or more head, contained 2.12 million cattle on feed on June 1. The inventory was up 3 percent from last year and 5 percent above June 1, 2004. This is the highest June 1 inventory since the data series began in 1994. Placements during May totaled 340,000 head, down 6 percent from 2005 and 15 percent below 2004. This is the lowest May placements since the data set began in 1994. Fed cattle marketings for the month of May totaled 520,000 head, up 8 percent from last year and 11 percent above May two years ago. Other disappearance during May totaled 20,000 head compared with 20,000 head last year and 10,000 two years ago. U.S. Cattle on Feed Up 4 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.2 million head on June 1, 2006. The inventory was 4 percent above June 1, 2005 and 5 percent above June 1, 2004. This is the second highest June 1 inventory since the series began in 1996. Placements in feedlots during May totaled 1.91 million, 14 percent below 2005 and 19 percent below 2004. Marketings of fed cattle during May totaled 2.17 million, 9 percent above 2005 and 7 percent above 2004. Other disappearance totaled 115,000 during May, 20 percent above 2005 and 46 percent above 2004. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States, 2005-2006 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : June 1 : May : May : May Other : Number on Feed 1/ : Placements : Marketings : Disappearance 2/ ---------------:---------------------:-------------------:-------------------:---------------------- : 2006/: 2006/: 2006/: 2006/ STATE : 2005 2006 2005 : 2005 2006 2005 : 2005 2006 2005 : 2005 2006 2005 ---------------:---------------------:-------------------:-------------------:---------------------- : 1,000 Head :Percent :1,000 Head:Percent :1,000 Head:Percent : 1,000 Head : Percent ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Arizona 331 341 103 32 29 91 29 27 93 2 6 300 California 515 535 104 82 80 98 62 70 113 5 5 100 Colorado 970 1,030 106 165 175 106 150 185 123 15 20 133 Idaho 245 230 94 61 37 61 54 47 87 2 5 250 Iowa 435 470 108 55 51 93 73 74 101 2 2 100 Kansas 2,280 2,400 105 510 415 81 465 520 112 25 25 100 Nebraska 2,050 2,120 103 360 340 94 480 520 108 20 20 100 New Mexico 127 135 106 30 25 83 16 21 131 1 1 100 Oklahoma 325 345 106 86 76 88 64 70 109 2 1 50 So. Dakota 186 195 105 28 33 118 38 34 89 4 4 100 Texas 2,890 2,960 102 750 590 79 480 520 108 10 20 200 Washington 137 141 103 26 20 77 34 30 88 2 1 50 Other States 280 285 102 38 42 111 52 52 100 6 5 83 United States 10,771 11,187 104 2,223 1,913 86 1,997 2,170 109 96 115 120 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death losses, movement from feedlots to pastures and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Source: USDA NASS Cattle on Feed June 23, 2006 Price Reactions After USDA Crop Reports ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Soybeans ------------------:---------------------------------------------------------- USDA Report : Day After Report : Week After Report and : Number : Average : Number : Average Price reaction : of Reports : Price Change : Reports : Price Change ------------------:------------------------------:--------------------------- : Number : Cents Per Bu : Number : Cents Per Bu ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop Production 1985-2005 Price Increases 50 10.4 52 15.8 No Price Change (NC) 4 NC 2 NC Price Decreases 51 -11.0 51 -18.0 Total 105 105 Grain Stocks 1984-2005 Price Increases 36 10.1 37 17.0 No Price Change (NC) 2 NC 1 NC Price Decreases 51 -11.6 51 -19.8 Total 89 89 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Wheat ------------------:---------------------------------------------------------- USDA Report : Day After Report : Week After Report and : Number : Average : Number : Average Price reaction : of Reports : Price Change : Reports : Price Change ------------------:------------------------------:--------------------------- : Number : Cents Per Bu : Number : Cents Per Bu ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop Production 1987-2005 Price Increases 50 5.8 57 9.2 No Price Change (NC) 10 NC 7 NC Price Decreases 49 -4.7 45 -12.8 Total 109 109 Grain Stocks 1984-2005 Price Increases 40 5.2 34 9.0 No Price Change (NC) 7 NC 7 NC Price Decreases 42 -5.3 48 -10.7 Total 89 89 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: USDA NASS Price Reactions After USDA Crop Reports, March 2006