ne-agri-facts Released: 07/25/2006 Issue 14/2006 NEBRASKA AGRI-FACTS USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service Nebraska Field Office 100 Centennial Mall North, Suite 298, Lincoln, Nebraska 68508 Phone: 402-437-5541 E-mail: nass-ne@nass.usda.gov Internet: www.nass.usda.gov Mark Harris, Director Dean Groskurth, Deputy Director ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Dear Nebraska Farmers, Ranchers and Agribusinesses: The following narrative and tables are from recently published reports by USDA’s Agricultural Statistics Board. These data are direct results of information provided by Nebraska producers and agribusinesses to the surveys conducted each month by this office. Thank you for your response to these surveys. Mark Harris Director ------------------------------------------------------------------------ July 2006 Wheat and Oat Production Forecast Based on July 1 conditions, Nebraska's 2006 winter wheat crop is forecast at 56.1 million bushels, unchanged from last month’s forecast but 18 percent below last year’s crop. Average yield is forecast at 34 bushels per acre, unchanged from last month but 5 bushels below last year. Area to be harvested for grain is estimated at 1.65 million acres, 110,000 acres less than last year. Actual field counts from the Objective Yield Survey indicated that wheat heads per square foot were 15 percent less than last year. Wheat harvest started the third full week of June, was 50 percent complete on the 2nd of July, and kept a pace sufficient to be over a week ahead of normal. Oat production is forecast at 2.12 million bushels, down 52 percent from last year. Acreage for harvest, at 45,000 acres, is down 15,000 acres from 2005; while yield, at 47 bushels per acre, is 26 bushels per acre below last year. Winter Wheat and Oats: Area Harvested, Yield and Production, Nebraska, and United States, 2004-2006 ------Nebraska------- ------United States------- Crop 2004 2005 2006 1/ 2004 2005 2006 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Winter Wheat Harvested for Grain 2/ Percent 89.2 95.1 91.7 79.5 83.6 75.2 For harvest 1,000 Acres 1,650 1,760 1,650 34,462 33,794 31,108 Yield Bushels 37.0 39.0 34.0 43.5 44.4 41.1 Production 1,000 Bushels 61,050 68,640 56,100 1,499,434 1,499,129 1,280,005 Oats Harvested for Grain 2/ Percent 35.7 40.0 32.1 43.7 42.9 44.2 For harvest 1,000 Acres 50 60 45 1,787 1,823 1,907 Yield Bushels 68.0 73.0 47.0 64.7 63.0 57.9 Production 1,000 Bushels 3,400 4,380 2,115 115,695 114,878 110,322 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Forecast. 2/ Percent of seeded acreage. Source: USDA NASS Crop Production, July 12, 2006 Winter Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield and Production, Selected States and United States, 2005-2006 Acres Harvested Yield Production State 2005 2006 1/ 2005 2006 1/ 2005 2006 1/ ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 Acres Bushels 1,000 Bushels Colorado 2,200 2,000 24.0 21.0 52,800 42,000 Kansas 9,500 9,400 40.0 32.0 380,000 300,800 Missouri 540 870 54.0 53.0 29,160 46,110 Montana 2,100 1,950 45.0 40.0 94,500 78,000 Nebraska 1,760 1,650 39.0 34.0 68,640 56,100 Oklahoma 4,000 3,100 32.0 23.0 128,000 71,300 South Dakota 1,490 1,100 44.0 36.0 65,560 39,600 Texas 3,000 1,400 32.0 25.0 96,000 35,000 Washington 1,800 1,800 67.0 67.0 120,600 120,600 United States 33,794 31,108 44.4 41.1 1,499,129 1,280,005 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Forecasted July 1, 2006. Source: USDA NASS Crop Production, July 12, 2006 U.S. Grains Supply and Disappearance Outlook ---------Supply--------- Market Year Disappearance 1/ Market Crop Begin- ---Domestic-- Year Average Year Pro- ning Im- Total Primary Ex- Ending Market duction stocks ports Use 2/ Other ports Total Stocks Price -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Million bushels $/bu. Corn 2004/05 11,807 958 11 12,776 6,162 2,686 1,814 10,662 2,114 2.06 2005/06 11,112 2,114 11 13,237 6,100 2,975 2,100 11,175 2,062 1.95-2.00 2006/07 3/ 10,740 2,062 10 12,812 6,050 3,535 2,150 11,735 1,077 2.25-2.65 Soybeans 2004/05 3,124 112 6 3,242 1,696 187 1,103 2,986 256 5.74 2005/06 3,086 256 4 3,346 1,720 177 905 2,802 545 5.65 2006/07 3/ 3,010 545 4 3,559 1,750 158 1,090 2,998 560 5.00-6.00 Wheat 2004/05 2,158 546 71 2,775 910 263 1,063 2,235 540 3.40 2005/06 2,105 540 80 2,725 910 243 1,004 2,157 568 3.42 2006/07 3/ 1,806 568 105 2,478 915 225 900 2,040 438 3.70-4.30 Sorghum 2004/05 454 34 0 487 191 55 184 430 57 1.79 2005/06 394 57 0 451 150 55 195 400 51 1.75-1.80 2006/07 3/ 350 51 0 401 110 60 185 355 46 2.05-2.45 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Marketing year begins: Corn, Sorghum & Soybeans, September 1; Wheat, June 1. 2/ Primary uses: Corn & Sorghum = Feed; Soybeans = Crushing; Wheat = Food. 3/ Projection. Source: USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, July 12, 2006 Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States, 2005-2006 July 1 June June June Other STATE Number on Feed 1/ Placements Marketings Disappearance 2/ 2006/ 2006/ 2006/ 2006/ 2005 2006 2005 2005 2006 2005 2005 2006 2005 2005 2006 2005 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 Head % 1,000 Head % 1,000 Head % 1,000 Head % Arizona 324 344 106 29 34 117 35 30 86 1 1 100 California 520 530 102 73 73 100 63 74 117 5 4 80 Colorado 900 980 109 130 175 135 190 215 113 10 10 100 Idaho 260 230 88 70 58 83 54 55 102 1 3 300 Iowa 415 460 111 49 59 120 68 66 97 1 3 300 Kansas 2,200 2,280 104 400 445 111 465 550 118 15 15 100 Nebraska 1,820 1,990 109 290 370 128 510 490 96 10 10 100 New Mexico 132 140 106 26 33 127 18 27 150 3 1 33 Oklahoma 320 340 106 54 63 117 58 67 116 1 1 100 So. Dakota 161 180 112 26 29 112 48 41 85 3 3 100 Texas 2,950 2,980 101 550 530 96 480 500 104 10 10 100 Washington 142 148 104 41 39 95 35 31 89 1 1 100 Other States 250 270 108 31 43 139 59 57 97 2 1 50 United States 10,394 10,872 105 1,769 1,951 110 2,083 2,203 106 63 63 100 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death losses, movement from feedlots to pastures and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Source: USDA NASS Cattle on Feed, July 21, 2006 Cattle and Calves: Number by Class and Calf Crop, United States, July 1, 2004-2006 Class United States 2004 2005 2006 2006/2005 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------1,000 head----------------- Percent Cattle and calves 103,400 104,500 105,700 101 Cows and heifers that have calved 42,400 42,800 43,000 100 Beef cows 33,400 33,750 33,850 100 Milk cows 9,000 9,050 9,150 101 Heifers 500 pounds and over 15,950 16,200 16,500 102 For beef cow replacement 4,800 5,000 5,000 100 For milk cow replacement 3,600 3,700 3,800 103 Other heifers 7,550 7,500 7,700 103 Steers 500 pounds and over 14,200 14,400 14,900 103 Bulls 500 pounds and over 2,050 2,100 2,100 100 Calves under 500 pounds 28,800 29,000 29,200 101 Calf Crop 37,505 37,780 37,900 100 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: USDA NASS Cattle, July 21, 2006 Lamb Crop and Market Sheep and Lambs: Inventory by Region and United States, July 1, 2006 1/ -------Market Lambs--------- Market All Regions /2 Lambs Lambs Total Breeding Under 65to 85to Over Sheep Sheep Born Expected Lamb Ewes 1+ 65 84 105 105 Market and and Jan-Jun 3/ Jul-Dec 4/ Crop Jan. 1 lbs. lbs. lbs. lbs. Total Sheep Lambs Lambs ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------1,000 Head--------------------------------------------- Region 1 530 200 730 703 140 140 125 60 465 15 480 1,280 Region 2 540 120 660 792 330 105 20 15 470 20 490 1,470 Region 3 1,280 20 1,300 1,074 810 155 95 110 1,170 20 1,190 2,650 Region 4 600 60 660 489 240 140 85 55 520 15 535 1,200 Region 5 670 80 750 599 275 90 45 20 430 10 440 1,170 United States 3,620 480 4,100 3,657 1,795 630 370 260 3,055 80 3,135 7,770 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Lamb crop is lambs born in the Eastern States and lambs docked or branded in the Western States. 2/ States included in regions as follows: 1 - AZ, CA, ID, NV, OR, & WA; 2 - NM & TX; 3 - CO, MT, SD, UT, & WY; 4 - IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, & OK; 5 - all other states. 3/ Lambs born alive between January 1, through June 30, 2006. 4/ Lambs expected to be born July through December 2006. Source: USDA NASS Sheep, July 21, 2006 Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, Nebraska, and United States, 2005-2006 Nebraska United States Item and Quarter 2005 2006 2005 2006 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Milk Cows 1/ January-March 60 60 9,002 9,094 April-June 60 61 9,041 9,134 Milk Production 2/ January-March 268 277 43,350 45,553 April-June 279 289 45,831 46,896 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Source: USDA NASS Milk Production, July 18, 2006 Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 23 Selected States , 2005-2006 1/ Milk Cows 2/ Milk per Cow 3/ Milk Production 3/ 2006/ Month 2005 2006 2005 2006 2005 2006 2005 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Thousands Pounds Million pounds Percent January 8,087 8,195 1,643 1,710 13,287 14,014 105 February 8,084 8,206 1,522 1,587 12,301 13,022 106 March 8,099 8,228 1,707 1,775 13,825 14,604 106 April 8,117 8,240 1,690 1,727 13,717 14,228 104 May 8,131 8,257 1,760 1,780 14,311 14,700 103 June 8,138 8,266 1,690 1,695 13,755 14,011 102 July 8,151 1,683 13,715 August 8,162 1,671 13,640 September 8,167 1,599 13,057 October 8,168 1,637 13,373 November 8,167 1,592 13,002 December 8,179 1,663 13,599 Annual 8,138 19,857 161,582 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ 2006 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Source: USDA NASS Milk Production, July 18, 2006