USDA-NASS-NY Crop & Lvst Report August 2007

E-mail: nass-ny@nass.usda.gov
(518) 457-5570

NEW YORK CROP AND LIVESTOCK REPORT
August 2007

Monthly
No. 973-8-07

NEW YORK CROP PROSPECTS – AUGUST 1

New York grain corn production is forecast at 66.4 million bushels, up 7 percent from last year. Area for harvest is expected to total 540 thousand acres, 13 percent above a year ago. Yield is forecast at 123 bushels per acre, down 6 bushels from 2006. The crop was developing well due to warm temperatures and adequate moisture. Nationally, grain corn production is forecast at 13.0 billion bushels, up 24 percent from last year and 17 percent above 2005.

New York production of alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures, at 960 thousand tons, is 24 percent above 2006. Other dry hay production is expected to total 1.58 million tons, down 22 percent from a year ago. Due to the dry summer, yields were lower than expected. Oat production, expected to total 4.21 million bushels, is 15 percent below a year ago. Soybean production in the Empire State is estimated at 7.88 million bushels, down from last year’s record high of 9.12 million bushels.

U.S. CORN PRODUCTION UP AND SOYBEAN PRODUCTION DOWN

Corn production is forecast at 13.1 billion bushels, up 24 percent from last year and 17 percent above 2005. Based on conditions as of August 1, yields are expected to average 152.8 bushels per acre, up 3.7 bushels from last year. If realized, this will be the second highest yield on record, behind the 160.4 bushel yield in 2004. However, production will be the largest on record as growers intend to harvest the most corn acres for grain since 1933.

Soybean production is forecast at 2.63 billion bushels, down 18 percent from last year's record high and down 14 percent from 2005. Based on August 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 41.5 bushels per acre, down 1.2 bushels from last year. Yields are lower than 2006 throughout most of the Atlantic Coast States, most of the Corn Belt, and the Tennessee Valley, while yields are expected to remain unchanged or increase across the Great Plains, the Gulf Coast States, and Arkansas. Area for harvest, at 63.3 million acres, remains unchanged from June but is down 15 percent from 2006.

Acreage, Yield and Production of Crops, New York and United States

Crop	Unit	Planted acres		Acres for harvest		Yield per acre		Production
Crop	Unit	2006	2007	2006	2007	2006	2007	2006	2007
		1,000 acres		1,000 acres		Units		1,000 units
New York
Corn for grain	bu.	950	1,060	480	540	129.0	123.0	61,920	66,420
Wheat, winter	bu.	105	100	95	90	61.0	50.0	5,795	4,500
Oats	bu.	85	100	67	78	74.0	54.0	4,958	4,212
Soybeans	bu.	200	215	198	213	46.0	37.0	9,108	7,881
Beans, dry 1/	lbs.	19	17	18	16.3	1,330.0	1,300.0	239	212
Potatoes, fall	cwt.	20.6	20.0	19.0	19.3	300	2/	5,700	2/
Hay, alfalfa	ton	-	-	370	400	2.1	2.4	777	960
Hay, other	ton	-	-	1,150	1,050	1.75	1.50	2,013	1,575
Apples	mil. lbs.	-	-	-	-	-	-	1,250	1,290
Grapes	ton	-	-	-	-	-	-	155.0	180.0
Pears	ton	-	-	-	-	-	-	16.0	14.0
Peaches	ton	-	-	-	-	-	-	7.0	6.3

United States
Corn for grain	bu.	78,327	92,888	70,648	85,418	149.1	152.8	10,534,868	13,053,617
Wheat, winter	bu.	40,575	45,136	31,117	37,188	41.7	41.3	1,298,081	1,537,262
Oats	bu.	4,168	3,860	1,576	1,612	59.5	61.0	93,764	98,341
Barley	bu.	3,452	4,044	2,951	3,542	61.0	63.1	180,051	223,478
Soybeans	bu.	75,522	64,081	74,602	63,285	42.7	41.5	3,188,247	2,625,274
Beans, dry 1/	lbs.	1,629.8.0	1,504.8	1,537.6	1,439.8	1,577	1,649	24,247	23,741
Potatoes, summer	cwt.	58.4	55.8	54.3	53.8	338.0	311.0	18,350	16,749
Potatoes, fall	cwt.	987.9	1009.2	976.2	996.2	402.0	2/	391,978	2/
Hay, alfalfa	ton	-	-	21,384	21,451	3.35	3.26	71,666	69,904
Hay, other	ton	-	-	39,423	40,338	1.78	1.87	70,000	75,347
Apples	mil. lbs.	-	-	-	-	-	-	9,931.7	9,284.7
Grapes	ton	-	-	-	-	-	-	6,417.2	6,988.5
Pears	ton	-	-	-	-	-	-	842.0	878.1
Peaches	ton	-	-	-	-	-	-	1,010	1,027

1/ Production in 100 lb. bags (cleaned basis). 2/ First forecast released November 9.

DRY BEANS: Planted Acreage by Classes,
New York and United States, 2005-2007

Class	New York			United States
Class	2005	2006	2007	2005	2006	2007
	1,000 acres			1,000 acres

Light Red Kidney	13.0	7.0	7.5	71.4	43.4	49.0
Dark Red Kidney	1.5	2.0	1.5	60.7	48.8	43.3
Black	9.0	9.0	7.0	111.6	167.4	173.2
All Other	1.5	1.0	1.0	1,386.3	1,370.2	1,239.3

TOTAL	25.0	19.0	17.0	1,630.0	1,629.8	1,504.8

Hired Workers on Farms and Wage Rates

Item	Northeast I 1/			United States
Item	July 9-15, 2006	Apr. 8-14, 2007	July 8-14, 2007	July 9-15, 2006	Apr. 8-14, 2007 ²^/	July 8-14, 2007
	1,000 workers

All hired workers	36	30	39	876	736	847
Worked 150 days or more	24	25	25	630	593	600
Worked less than 150 days	12	5	14	246	143	247

	Hours worked per worker

All hired workers	39.1	42.4	41.6	41.0	40.7	41.6

	Dollars per hour

Field workers	9.28	10.10	9.58	8.93	9.35	9.31
Livestock workers	9.57	9.59	9.37	9.49	9.59	9.80
Field and livestock workers	9.38	9.90	9.51	9.07	9.42	9.44
All hired workers	9.95	10.77	10.00	9.72	10.20	10.00

1/ New York and New England States (CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, VT) are combined into Northeast I region. 2/ Revised.

JULY 1 CATTLE INVENTORY
DOWN SLIGHTLY

All cattle and calves in the United States as of July 1, 2007, totaled 104.8 million head, slightly below the 105.2 million on July 1, 2006 but 1 percent above the 104.2 million two years ago. All cows and heifers that have calved, at 42.5 million, were down slightly form the 42.6 million on July 1, 2006 but unchanged from two years ago.

Beef cows, at 33.4 million, were down slightly from July 1, 2006 and July 1, 2005. Milk cows, at 9.15 million, were unchanged from July 1, 2006 but up 1 percent from two years ago.

All sheep and lamb inventory in the United States on July 1, 2007 totaled 7.73 million head, down slightly from July 1, 2006, and 1 percent below July 1, 2005. Breeding sheep inventory at 4.61 million head on July 1, 2007 was down slightly from July 1, 2006. Market sheep and lambs (including newborn lambs), at 3.12 million head, were also down slightly from last July.

All goat inventory on July 1, 2007 totaled 3.60 million head, up 4 percent from the previous July. Breeding goat inventory totaled 2.69 million head, up 4 percent from July 2006. All market goats and kids totaled 905,000 head, up 2 percent from the previous July.

CATTLE, SHEEP AND GOATS ON FARMS
United States, July 1, 2005-2007

Class	United States
Class	2005	2006	2007
	1,000 head

Cattle and Calves	104,200	105,200	104,800

Cows that have calved	42,500	42,600	42,500
Beef cows	33,450	33,450	33,350
Milk cows	9,050	9,150	9,150

Heifers 500 lbs. and over	16,200	16,600	16,600
For beef cow replacement	5,000	5,000	4,700
For milk cow replacement	3,700	3,800	3,900
Other heifers	7,500	7,800	8,000

Steers 500 lbs. and over	14,500	15,000	14,900
Bulls 500 lbs. and over	2,100	2,100	2,100
Calves under 500 pounds	28,900	28,900	28,700

Calf crop	37,575	37,567	37,400

All sheep and lambs	7,800	7,770	7,730
All breeding sheep	4,655	4,635	4,610
Ewes 1 year and older	3,790	3,780	3,760
Rams 1 year and older	185	185	185
Replacement lambs	680	670	665
Market sheep and lambs	3,145	3,135	3,120

Goats
All Goats	3,350	3,465	3,595
Breeding	2,500	2,575	2,690
Market	850	890	905

JULY MILK PRICES INCREASED FROM JUNE

Prices received by New York producers for milk sold during July increased from a month earlier. The price of corn and eggs also increased. The price of oats decreased. The price of hay was unchanged. Many previous month prices were revised due to more complete sales information.

Grain corn, at $3.74 per bushel, increased 43 cents from June and increased $1.29 from last year. Hay averaged $123.00 per ton, no change from June and $12.00 less than July 2006. Oats, at $1.96 per bushel, decreased 9 cents from June, but increased 7 cents from July a year ago.

Dairy farmers in the Empire State received an average of $22.10 per hundredweight of milk sold during July, $1.80 more than June and $9.80 more than July a year ago. Poultry producers received an average of 89 cents per dozen eggs sold, up 38.5 cents from June and 61 cents higher than last year.

The preliminary U.S. All Farm Products Index of Prices Received by Farmers in July, at 142 percent, based on 1990-92=100, increased 3 points (2.2 percent) from June. The Crop Index is up 2 points (1.4 percent) and the Livestock Index increased 3 points (2.2 percent). Producers received higher commodity prices for milk, eggs, wheat, and snap beans. Lower prices were received for corn, broilers, hogs, and cantaloups. The overall index is also affected by the seasonal change based on a 3-year average mix of commodities producers sell. Increased average marketings of grapes, wheat, hay, and tomatoes offset decreased marketings of milk, cantaloups, and potatoes.

Prices Received by Farmers 1/

Commodity	Unit	New York			United States
Commodity	Unit	July 2006	June 2007	July 2007	July 2006	June 2007	July 2007
		Dollars			Dollars

Corn	bu.	2.37	3.31	3.74	2.14	3.51	3.23
Oats	bu.	1.58	2.05	1.96	1.78	2.54	2.50
Wheat	bu.	3.00	5.14	5.14	3.88	5.03	5.37
Barley	bu.	1.9	3.24	-	2.71	3.30	3.37
Soybeans	bu.	5.53	7.48	7.91	5.61	7.51	7.92
Hay, baled	ton	135.00	123.00	123.00	107.00	131.00	131.00
Potatoes	cwt.	-	-	-	8.78	8.27	8.10
Apples, fresh market 2/	cwt.	-	27.40	-	42.30	29.60	29.30

Milk, wholesale	cwt.	12.30	20.30	22.10	11.70	20.20	21.70
Milk cows 3/	head	1,580.00	-	1,820.00	1,680.00	-	1,950.00
Eggs, table market	doz.	0.280	0.505	0.890	0.237	0.497	0.812
Slaughter cows	cwt.	42.90	48.50	4/	46.40	50.10	51.40
Steers and heifers	cwt.	69.70	76.20	4/	90.00	93.30	94.30
All slaughter cattle	cwt.	44.10	50.30	4/	85.80	89.10	90.30
Calves	cwt.	148.80	116.80	4/	137.00	125.00	125.00
Hogs	cwt.	45.70	43.20	4/	50.20	54.30	52.60
Lambs	cwt.	92.80	106.40	4/	93.40	96.30	4/

Index (1990-92=100)
Prices received					117	139	142
Prices paid					149	158	158
Ratio prices received to prices paid					79	88	90

1/ Mid-month price for current month. Average price for entire month shown for previous periods. 2/ New York price is equivalent packinghouse door. 3/ Milk cow prices published quarterly. 4/ Price available next month.

Commercial Livestock Slaughter, June 1/

Species	Number Slaughtered				Total Live Weight
	New York		United States		New York		United States
	2006	2007	2006	2007	2006	2007	2006	2007
	1,000 head		1,000 head		Million pounds		Million pounds

Cattle	2.9	2.0	3,159	3,077	3.1	2.3	3,982	3,834
Calves	7.8	8.0	59	61	1.3	1.4	21	19
Hogs	4.0	2.5	8,343	8,297	.7	.4	2,223	2,211
Sheep and lambs	2.6	2.9	212	200	.2	.2	29	27

1/ Slaughter in federal and non-federal inspected plants. Excludes farm slaughter.

JULY MILK PRODUCTION UP

New York dairy herds produced 1.03 billion pounds of milk during. Milk cows declined from the previous year while milk per cow increased from the previous year resulting in a slight increase in milk production compared to July 2006. The number of milk cows averaged 626 thousand head, down 10 thousand head from July of the previous year. Milk per cow averaged 1645 pounds, up 40 pounds from the July 2006 rate.

Milk production in the 23 major States during July totaled 14.5 billion pounds, up 3.9 percent from July 2006. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,743 pounds for July, 55 pounds above July 2006. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.31 million head, 50,000 head more than July 2006, and 14,000 head more than June 2007.

Dairy Briefs

Item	Unit	New York			23 Major States
Item	Unit	July 2006	June 2007	July 2007	July 2006	June 2007	July 2007

Milk Production	Mil. lb.	1,024	1,014	1,030	13,937	14,204	14,482
Milk per cow	Lb.	1,605	1,620	1,645	1,688	1,713	1,743
No. of milk cows	Thou. hd.	638	626	626	8,258	8,294	8,308

Dairy Products Manufactured

Item	Unit	New York			United States
Item	Unit	June 2006	May 2007	June 2007	June 2006	May 2007	June 2007

Butter	Thou. lb.	1,158	1,380	1,237	101,110	124,417	110,493
American cheese	Thou. lb.	N/A	N/A	N/A	331,375	331,408	316,163
Mozzarella cheese	Thou. lb.	16,400	17,185	17,112	260,874	278,766	273,416
Yogurt, plain and flavored	Thou. lb.	19,582	23,228	19,625	290,529	300,052	284,759
Ice cream, hard	Thou. gal.	2,855	2,628	2,692	91,954	85,254	89,499

NEW YORK EGG PRODUCTION UP 5 PERCENT IN JUNE

Egg production on New York farms totaled 97 million eggs in June 2007, up 5 percent from last year. The number of hens and pullets of laying age, at 4.11 million, increased 8 percent from June 2006 but the rate of lay decreased 2 percent to 2,358 eggs per 100 layers.

U.S. egg production totaled 7.36 billion during June 2007, down 1 percent from last year. Production included 6.24 billion table eggs, and 1.12 billion hatching eggs, of which 1.05 billion were broiler-type and 65 million were egg-type. The total number of layers during June 2007 averaged 339 million, down 1 percent from last year. Eggs in incubators totaled 33.4 million on July 1, 2007, up 6 percent from a year ago.

Poultry Briefs

Item	Unit	June 2006	May 2007	June 2007	June 2006	May 2007	June 2007
		New York			United States

Number of layers	Thou.	3,821	4,078	4,114	342,685	341,052	339,331
Eggs per layer	No.	24.08	24.52	23.58	21.60	22.26	21.69
Eggs produced	Mil.	92	100	97	7,401	7,591	7,360

		North and South Atlantic States			United States

Chicks hatched, egg-type	Thou.	2/	2/	2/	37,406	38,498	40,005
Chicks hatched, broiler type	Thou.	2/	2/	2/	788,652	837,386	810,419
Chicken eggs in incubators 1/
Egg-type	Thou.	10,079	11,326	10,216	31,485	39,990	33,382
Broiler-type	Thou.	254,701	265,863	260,948	650,487	680,815	667,719

1/ First day of following month. 2/ Data not published to avoid disclosing individual operations.

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at our website at www.nass.usda.gov/ny/

The USDA, NASS New York Field Office thanks the agricultural businesses and farm operators who respond to our surveys. This complimentary report is being sent to those asking for the survey results during the survey interview.