E-mail: nass-ny@nass.usda.gov
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NEW YORK CROP AND LIVESTOCK REPORT
September 2007

Monthly
No. 973-9-07

NEW YORK CORN PRODUCTION UP

Based on conditions as of September 1, New York grain corn production is now expected to total 66.4 million bushels, up 7 percent from the 61.9 million bushels produced in 2006.   Acreage for harvest is estimated at 540,000 acres, 13 percent more than the 480,000 acres harvested for grain last year. Yields are expected to average 123 bushels per acre, the same as the August forecast, and 6 bushels below the 2006 forecast.  U.S. corn production is forecast at 13.3 billion bushels, up 2 percent from last month and 26 percent above 2006.  Based on conditions as of September 1, yields are expected to average 155.8 bushels per acre, up 3.0 bushels from August and 6.7 bushels from last year.  If realized, this would be the second highest yield on record, behind the 160.4 bushel yield in 2004.  Production would be the largest on record as growers expect to harvest the most corn acres for grain since 1933.  Expected yields are higher than last month across the northern and central Great Plains and Corn Belt where heavy rainfall during the month provided much-needed moisture for the crop.  Yield forecasts in the southern Great Plains and Delta are also higher than last month as early harvest results are better than anticipated.  Yields are unchanged or lower than August across much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States. 

Soybean production in the Empire State is forecast at 7.88 million bushels, down 14 percent from the 9.11 million bushels produced in 2006. Acreage for harvest is expected to total 213,000 acres up 8 percent from the 198,000 acres harvested last year. Yields are expected to average 37 bushels per acre, tied with last month but down 9 bushels from last years record high 46 bushels.  U.S. soybean production is forecast at 2.62 billion bushels, down slightly from the August forecast and down 18 percent from last year’s record high.  Based on September 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 41.4 bushels per acre, down 0.1 bushel from last month and down 1.3 bushels from last year.  Compared with last month, yields are forecast lower across the Corn Belt, the Tennessee Valley, and the Southeast.  Hot, dry conditions contributed to most of the decline, especially in Kentucky and Tennessee, down 8 bushels and 9 bushels from last month respectively.  However, yields increased from the August 1 forecast in the Northern Great Plains and Northwestern Corn Belt, as beneficial rains fell during the month of August.

    Acreage, Yield and Production of Crops, New York and United States

Crop

Unit

          Planted acres

Acres for harvest

    Yield per acre

         Production

2006

2007

2006

2007

2006

2007

2006

2007

   

            1,000 acres

        1,000 acres

             Units

         1,000 units

New York

                 

Corn for grain

bu.

950

1,060

480

540

129.0

123.0

61,920

       66,420

Wheat, winter

bu.

105

100

95

90

61.0

50.0

5,795

         4,500

Oats

bu.

85

100

67

78

74.0

54.0

4,958

         4,212

Soybeans

bu.

200

215

198

213

46.0

37.0

9,108

         7,881

Beans, dry 1/

lbs.

19

17

18

16.3

1,330.0

1,300.0

239

            212

Potatoes, fall

cwt.

20.6

20.0

19.0

19.3

300

2/

5,700

               2/

Hay, alfalfa

ton

-

-

370

400

2.1

2.4

777

            960

Hay, other

ton

-

-

1,150

1,050

1.75

1.50

2,013

         1,575

Apples

mil. lbs.

-

-

-

-

-

-

1,250

         1,290

Grapes

ton

-

-

-

-

-

-

155.0

        180.0

Pears

ton

-

-

-

-

-

-

16.0

           14.0

Peaches

ton

-

-

-

-

-

-

7.0

             6.3

                   

United States

                 

Corn for grain

bu.

78,327

92,888

70,648

85,418

149.1

155.8

10,534,868

13,307,999

Wheat, winter

bu.

40,575

45,136

31,117

37,188

41.7

41.3

1,298,081

1,537,262

Oats

bu.

4,168

3,860

1,576

1,612

59.5

61.0

93,764

98,341

Barley

bu.

3,452

4,044

2,951

3,542

61.0

63.1

180,051

223,478

Soybeans

bu.

75,522

64,081

74,602

63,285

42.7

41.4

3,188,247

2,618,790

Beans, dry 1/

lbs.

1,629.8.0

1,504.8

1,537.6

1,439.8

1,577

1,649

24,247

23,741

Potatoes, summer

cwt.

58.4

55.8

54.3

53.8

338.0

311.0

18,350

16,749

Potatoes, fall

cwt.

987.9

1009.2

976.2

996.2

402.0

2/

391,978

2/

Hay, alfalfa

ton

-

-

21,384

21,451

3.35

3.26

71,666

69,904

Hay, other

ton

-

-

39,423

40,338

1.78

1.87

70,000

75,347

Apples

mil. lbs.

-

-

-

-

-

-

1,250.0

1,290.0

Grapes

ton

-

-

-

-

-

-

155.0

180.0

Pears

ton

-

-

-

-

-

-

16,000

14,000

Peaches

ton

-

-

-

-

-

-

1,010

6,300

                   

1/         Production in 100 lb. bags (cleaned basis).
2/         First forecast released November 9.


2007 TURKEY OUTPUT IN NEW YORK EXPECTED TO DECREASE

New York turkey producers expect to raise an estimated 620,000 turkeys during 2007, according Stephen Ropel, Director of USDA’s National Agriculture Statistics Service, New York Field Office. This total will be 2 percent below the 630,000 birds raised in 2006.

The preliminary estimate of turkeys raised in the United States during 2007 is 272 million, up 4 percent from the number raised during 2006.

 

The following six States are expected to account for about two-thirds of the turkeys produced in the United States during 2007: Minnesota, at 46.0 million turkeys, is up 2 percent from last year; North Carolina, at 39.0 million turkeys, is up 4 percent from last year; Arkansas, at 31.0 million turkeys, is up 3 percent from a year ago; Virginia, at 21.5 million turkeys, is unchanged from 2006; Missouri, at 21.0 million turkeys, is up 5 percent from last year; and California, at 16.8 million turkeys, is up 6 percent from last year.

CATTLE AND CALVES:  Number of cattle operations, by herd size,
New York, 2004-2006

Year

Herd Size

1-49

50-99

100-499

500 plus

Total

 

Number of operations

           

2004

8,100

2,900

3,900

400

15,300

2005

7,600

3,000

3,700

400

14,700

2006

7,500

2,900

3,400

400

14,200

           

CATTLE AND CALVES:  Percent of inventory, by herd size,
New York, 2004-2006

Year

Herd size

1-49

50-99

100-499

500 plus

 

Percent

         

2004

10.0

15.0

45.0

30.0

2005

9.0

15.0

45.0

31.0

2006

10.0

15.0

42.0

33.0

         

MILK COWS:  Number of milk cow operations, by herd size,
New York, 2004-2006

Year

Number of milk cows in herd

1-29

30-49

50-99

100-199

200 plus

Total

 

Number of operations

             

2004

1,400

1,300

2,600

1,000

600

6,900

2005

1,400

1,300

2,500

890

610

6,700

2006

1,300

1,300

2,300

920

580

6,400

             

MILK COWS:  Percent of inventory, by herd size,
New York, 2004-2006

Year

1-29

30-49

50-99

100-199

200 plus

 

Percent

           

2004

2.0

7.5

27.0

20.5

43.0

2005

2.0

7.5

25.5

18.5

46.5

2006

2.5

8.0

24.0

20.0

45.5

           

AUGUST PRICES DECREASED

Prices received by New York producers during August for selected commodities decreased from a month earlier.  The price of corn, oats, wheat, hay, and milk decreased.  The price of soybeans and eggs increased.  Many previous month prices were revised due to more complete sales information.

Grain corn, at $2.32 per bushel, decreased 5 cents from July and 18 cents from last year. Oat price, at $1.52 per bushel, decreased 6 cents from July and 15 cents from August last year.  Wheat price was $2.67, 33 cents below last month and 70 cents below last year. Soybeans, at $5.37 per bushel, increased 7 cents from July but decreased 99 cents from August last year.  Hay averaged $123.00 per ton, $12.00 less than July but $19.00 more than August 2005. 

Dairy farmers in the Empire State received an average of $12.20 per hundredweight of milk sold during August, 10 cents less than July and $3.40 less than August a year ago.  Poultry producers received an average of 39 cents per dozen eggs sold, up 11 cents from July and 10 cents from August of last year.

The preliminary All Farm Products Index of Prices Received by Farmers in August, at 120 percent, based on 1990-92=100, increased 3 points (2.6 percent) from July. The Crop Index is up 3 points (2.4 percent) and the Livestock Index increased 5 points (4.5 percent). Producers received higher commodity prices for lettuce, broilers, tomatoes, and eggs. Lower prices were received for corn, soybeans, sorghum grain, and potatoes. The overall index is also affected by the seasonal change based on a 3-year average mix of commodities producers sell. Increased average marketings of cattle, grapes, calves, and sweet corn offset decreased marketings of wheat, hay, broilers, and cantaloupe.

Prices Received by Farmers 1/

            Commodity

Unit

New York

United States

Aug.
2006

July
2007

Aug.
2007

Aug.
 2006

July
2007

Aug.
2007

   

Dollars

Dollars

       

Corn

  bu.

2.32

3.76

--

2.09

3.32

3.17

Oats

  bu.

1.52

2.09

2.10

1.67

2.33

2.25

Wheat

  bu.

3.16

5.62

-

3.91

5.17

5.85

Barley

  bu.

1.59

2.76

3.87

2.70

3.45

3.57

Soybeans

  bu.

4.84

7.85

7.89

5.23

7.56

7.49

Hay, baled

  ton

123.00

123.00

122.00

106.00

131.00

132.00

Potatoes

  cwt.

15.10

-

14.00

8.23

8.48

7.98

Apples, fresh market 2/

  cwt.

-

-

-

35.90

29.30

32.60

               

Milk, wholesale

  cwt.

12.20

22.10

22.70

12.30

22.20

22.40

Milk cows 3/

  head

-

1,820.00

-

 

1,950.00

 

Eggs, table market

  doz.

.390

.890

.784

.372

.812

.716

Slaughter cows

  cwt.

42.10

46.67

4/

46.80

51.40

51.50

Steers and heifers

  cwt.

68.00

76.08

4/

91.50

93.10

94.40

All slaughter cattle

  cwt.

43.60

48.73

4/

87.20

89.20

90.50

Calves

  cwt.

135.10

91.40

4/

136.00

127.00

129.00

Hogs

  cwt.

37.30

48.61

4/

51.60

52.20

53.20

Lambs

  cwt.

90.60

84.66

4/

95.40

98.60

4/

               

Index (1990-92=100)

             

Prices received

       

119

141

139

Prices paid

       

149

158

158

Ratio prices received to prices paid

       

80

89

88

1/  Mid-month price for current month.  Average price for entire month shown for previous periods.
2/  New York price is equivalent packinghouse door.
3/  Milk cow prices published quarterly.
4/  Price available next month. 

Commercial Livestock Slaughter, July 1/

Species

                Number Slaughtered

                 Total Live Weight

      New York

       United States

      New York

        United States

2006

2007

2006

2007

2006

2007

2006

2007

 

1,000 head

1,000 head

Million pounds

Million pounds

                 

Cattle

2.1

  2.1

2,834.0

2,906.1

2.2

2.4

3,598.2

3,672.1

Calves

9.6

13.1

57.9

62.6

1.6

1.5

18.6

17.9

Hogs

2.8

  3.1

7,882.0

8,396.6

  .5

  .5

2,074.5

2,216.0

Sheep and lambs

2.5

  3.0

202.4

204.7

  .2

  .3

26.3

26.8

                 

1/  Slaughter in federal and non-federal inspected plants.  Excludes farm slaughter.

AUGUST MILK PRODUCTION UP

New York dairy herds produced 1.03 billion pounds of milk during August.  Milk cows declined from the previous year while milk per cow increased from the previous year resulting in a 2 percent increase in milk production compared to August 2006.  The number of milk cows averaged 625 thousand head, down 9 thousand head from August of the previous year.  Milk per cow averaged 1,640 pounds, up 60 pounds from the August 2006 rate.

 

Milk production in the 23 major States during August totaled 14.3 billion pounds, up 3.6 percent from August 2006.   Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,721 pounds for August, 45 pounds above August 2006.  The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.33 million head, 72,000 head more than August 2006, and 11,000 head more than July 2007.

Dairy Briefs

Item

Unit

                      New York

                 23 Major States

Aug 2006

July 2007

Aug. 2007

Aug. 2006

July 2007

Aug. 2007

       

Milk Production

  Mil. lb.

1,002

1,033

1,025

13,838

14,493

14,332

Milk per cow

  Lb.

1,580

1,650

1,640

1,676

1,743

1,721

No. of milk cows

  Thou. hd.

634

626

625

8,255

8,316

8,327

       

Dairy Products Manufactured

Item

Unit

New York

United States

July
2006

June
2007

July
2007

July
2006

June
2007

July
2007

       

Butter

  Thou. lb.

1,267

865

939

94,729

109,719

115,397

American cheese

  Thou. lb.

N/A

N/A

N/A

327,511

315,701

322,426

Mozzarella cheese

  Thou. lb.

16,660

17,117

16,164

255,341

273,297

269,913

Yogurt, plain and flavored

  Thou. lb.

20,206

19,625

20,017

266,544

284,764

288,479

Ice cream, hard

  Thou. gal.

2,558

2,692

2,498

88,628

89,369

86,206

       

NEW YORK EGG PRODUCTION UP 3 PERCENT IN JULY

Egg  production  on  New  York  farms  totaled  103  million  eggs  in  July 2007,  up  3  percent  from  last  year.  The  number  of  hens and  pullets of  laying  age,  at  4.22  million,  increased  6  percent from  July  2006  but  the  rate  of  lay  decreased  3  percent  to 2,443  eggs  per  100  layers.

 

U.S. egg production totaled 7.57 billion during July 2007, down 1 percent from last year. Production included 6.44 billion table eggs, and 1.14 billion hatching eggs, of which 1.07 billion were broiler-type and 66 million were egg-type. The total number of layers during July 2007 averaged 339 million, down 1 percent from last year.  Eggs in incubators totaled 33.7 million on August 1, 2007, up 10 percent from a year ago.

Poultry Briefs

Item

Unit

July
2006

June
2007

July
2007

July
2006

June
2007

July
2007

   

New York

United States

               

Number of layers

  Thou.

3,976

4,114

4,216

340,728

338,230

339,673

Eggs per layer

  No.

25.15

23.58

24.43

22.40

21.69

22.34

Eggs produced

  Mil.

100

97

103

7,645

7,355

7,574

       
   

North and South Atlantic States

United States

               

Chicks hatched, egg-type

  Thou.

        2/

        2/

        2/

32,727

40,005

35,560

Chicks hatched, broiler type

  Thou.

        2/

        2/

        2/

801,537

810,419

820,865

Chicken eggs in incubators 1/

             

Egg-type

  Thou.

8,680

10,216

8,609

801,537

810,419

820,865

Broiler-type

  Thou.

256,447

260,948

263,366

661,365

667,719

675,750

       

1/   First day of following month.
2/   Data not published to avoid disclosing individual operations.

This report, in addition to many others, is available free of charge at our website at www.nass.usda.gov/ny/

The USDA, NASS New York Field Office thanks the agricultural businesses and farm operators who respond to our surveys.  This complimentary report is being sent to those asking for the survey results during the survey interview.