USDA-NASS-NY November 07 Crop & Livestock Report

E-mail: nass-ny@nass.usda.gov
(518) 457-5570

NEW YORK CROP AND LIVESTOCK REPORT
November 2007

Monthly
No. 973-11-07

NEW YORK GRAIN CORN UP, SOYBEAN PRODUCTION DOWN

New York grain corn production is forecast at 66.4 million bushels, up 7 percent from last year's output. Production is up due to increases in the number of acres harvested. Acreage for harvest is expected to total 540 thousand acres, up 13 percent from a year earlier. Yields are expected to average 123 bushels per acre, 6 bushels less than in 2006. U.S. corn production is forecast at 13.2 billion bushels, down 1 percent from last month but 25 percent above 2006. Based on conditions as of November 1, yields are expected to average 153.0 bushels per acre, down 1.7 bushels from October but 3.9 bushels above last year. If realized, this yield would be the second highest on record, behind 2004. Production would be the largest on record as producers expect to harvest the most corn acres for grain since 1933. Forecast yields are lower than last month across the northern and western Corn Belt and adjacent areas of the Great Plains where actual harvest results are revealing that the impact of the hot, dry conditions during pollination was worse than initially expected. Producers in the Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley, and mid-Atlantic States reported higher yields than last month.

Soybean production in New York is forecast at a record high 7.51 million bushels, down 18 percent from last year. Acreage harvested for beans is expected to total 203 thousand acres, up 2 percent from a year earlier and the largest acreage on record. Yields are expected to average 37 bushels per acre, down 9 bushels from 2006. U.S. soybean production is forecast at 2.59 billion bushels, down slightly from the October forecast and down 19 percent from last year’s record high. Based on November 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 41.3 bushels per acre, down 0.1 bushel from last month and down 1.4 bushels from last year. Compared with last month, yields are forecast higher in Indiana, Michigan, Texas, and most of the Mid-Atlantic region as producers are realizing higher yields than expected. In contrast, yield prospects decreased or were unchanged across the remainder of the Nation as harvest progressed. Area for harvest in the U.S. is forecast at 62.8 million acres, unchanged from last month but down 16 percent from 2006.

Acreage, Yield and Production of Crops, New York and United States

Crop	Unit	Planted acres		Acres for harvest		Yield per acre		Production
Crop	Unit	2006	2007	2006	2007	2006	2007	2006	2007
		1,000 acres		1,000 acres		Units		1,000 units
New York
Corn for grain	bu.	970	1,040	480	540	129.0	123.0	61,920	66,420
Wheat, winter	bu.	105	100	95	85	61.0	52.0	5,795	4,420
Oats	bu.	85	100	67	60	74.0	57.0	4,958	3,420
Barley	bu.	17	13	12	11	55.0	46.0	660	506
Soybeans	bu.	200	205	198	203	46.0	37.0	9,108	7,511
Beans, dry 1/	lbs.	19	17	18	16.3	1,330.0	1,200.0	239	196
Potatoes, fall	cwt.	20.6	19.0	19.0	18.3	300.0	260.0	5,700	4,758
Hay, alfalfa	ton	-	-	370	400	2.1	2.2	777	880
Hay, other	ton	-	-	1,150	1,050	1.75	1.80	2,013	1,890
Apples	mil. lbs.	-	-	-	-	-	-	1,250	1,260
Grapes	ton	-	-	-	-	-	-	155.0	176.0
Pears	ton	-	-	-	-	-	-	16.0	14.0
Peaches	ton	-	-	-	-	-	-	7.0	6.3

United States
Corn for grain	bu.	78,327	93,616	70,648	86,071	149.1	153.0	10,534,868	13,167,741
Wheat, winter	bu.	40,575	44,987	31,117	35,952	41.7	42.2	1,298,081	1,515,989
Oats	bu.	4,168	3,760	1,566	1,505	59.8	60.9	93,638	91,599
Barley	bu.	3,452	4,020	2,951	3,508	61.1	60.4	180,165	211,825
Soybeans	bu.	75,522	63,669	74,602	62,818	42.7	41.3	3,188,247	2,594,275
Beans, dry 1/	lbs.	1,629.8	1,527.3	1,537.6	1,462.5	1,577	1,727	24,247	25,264
Potatoes, summer	cwt.	58.0	53.8	53.9	50.3	337.0	328.0	18,166	16,504
Potatoes, fall	cwt.	993.7	1,009.2	983.0	997.8	406.0	409.0	398,921	408,325
Hay, alfalfa	ton	-	-	21,384	21,451	3.35	3.37	71,666	72,347
Hay, other	ton	-	-	39,423	40,338	1.78	1.87	70,000	75,617
Apples	mil. lbs.	-	-	-	-	-	-	1,250.0	1,260.0
Grapes	ton	-	-	-	-	-	-	155,000	176,000
Pears	ton	-	-	-	-	-	-	16,000	14,000
Peaches	ton	-	-	-	-	-	-	7,000	6,300
1/ Production in 100 lb. bags (cleaned basis)

NEW YORK POTATO PRODUCTION DOWN

Production of fall potatoes in New York in 2007 is estimated at 4.76 million hundredweight (cwt.), down 16 percent from a year ago. Yields are expected to average 260 cwt. per acre compared with 300 cwt. per acre last year. Acreage for harvest is estimated at a record low 18.3 thousand acres, down 4 percent from last year.

U.S. production of fall potatoes for 2007 is forecast at 408 million cwt, up 2 percent from last year. Area harvested, at 997,800 acres, is virtually unchanged from the July estimate but 2 percent above last year. The average yield is forecast at 409 cwt per acre, up 3 cwt from last year’s record high yield.

Farm Real Estate Average Value per Acre,
Selected States and United States, January 1, 2003-2007

State	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
	Dollars

New York	1,700	1,780	1,920	2,050	2,220
Massachusetts	9,300	9,900	10,500	11,600	11,800
New Hampshire	3,100	3,250	3,450	3,700	4,000
New Jersey	9,100	9,750	10,500	10,900	11,300
Pennsylvania	3,450	3,650	4,220	4,790	5,670
Vermont	2,050	2,150	2,300	2,450	2,700

48 States	1,270	1,360	1,650	1,900	2,160

Additional details available at www.nass.usda.gov in the complete “Land Values and Cash Rents” report released on August 3, 2007.

Cash Rent Per Acre: Selected States, 2005-2007

State	Cropland Rented for Cash			Pasture Rented for Cash
State	2005	2006	2007	2005	2006	2007
	Dollars

New York	41.00	39.00	39.00	1/	1/	1/
Pennsylvania	45.00	46.50	48.00	27.00	25.00	30.00
New Jersey	47.50	47.50	48.00	1/	1/	1/

48 States	78.00	79.00	85.00	10.30	10.80	12.00
1/ Insufficient data to publish.

Additional details available at www.nass.usda.gov in the complete “Land Values and Cash Rents” report released on August 3, 2007.

OCTOBER MILK PRICES DECREASED FROM SEPTEMBER

Prices received by New York producers for milk sold during October decreased from a month earlier. The price of oats increased. The price of eggs, potatoes, and apples decreased. The price of corn and hay was unchanged. Many previous month prices were revised due to more complete sales information.

Grain corn, at $3.78 per bushel, was unchanged from September but increased $1.34 from last year. Hay averaged $116.00 per ton, unchanged from September but $2.00 less than October 2006. Potatoes, at $11.70 per hundredweight, decreased 90 cents from last month and decreased $2.60 from October 2006. Fresh Apples at the packing house door were 34.4 cents per pound, 1 cent less than last year at this time. Oats, at $2.06 per bushel, increased 4 cents from September and increased 63 cents from October a year ago.

Dairy farmers in the Empire State received an average of $22.30 per hundredweight of milk sold during October, 50 cents less than September but $8.60 more than October a year ago. Poultry producers received an average of 82 cents per dozen eggs sold, down 18 cents from September but 45 cents higher than last year.

The preliminary All Farm Products Index of Prices Received by U.S. Farmers in October, at 142 percent, based on 1990-92=100, increased 1 point (0.7 percent) from September. The Crop Index is up 7 points (4.9 percent) but the Livestock Index decreased 7 points (5.0 percent). Producers received higher commodity prices for lettuce, wheat, soybeans, and tomatoes and lower prices were received for broilers, hogs, cattle, and eggs. The overall index is also affected by the seasonal change based on a 3-year average mix of commodities producers sell. Increased average marketings of soybeans, corn, cotton, and grain sorghum offset decreased marketings of milk, wheat, grapes, and broilers.

Prices Received by Farmers 1/

Commodity	Unit	New York			United States
Commodity	Unit	Oct. 2006	Sep. 2007	Oct. 2007	Oct. 2006	Sep. 2007	Oct. 2007
		Dollars			Dollars

Corn	bu.	2.44	3.78	3.78	2.55	3.29	3.29
Oats	bu.	1.43	2.02	2.06	1.77	2.47	2.35
Wheat	bu.	4.17	6.83	7.95	4.59	6.75	8.02
Barley	bu.	-	-	-	2.76	4.04	5.18
Soybeans	bu.	4.73	9.22	9.65	5.52	8.18	8.58
Hay, baled	ton	118.00	116.00	116.00	109.00	132.00	133.00
Potatoes	cwt.	14.30	12.60	11.70	5.76	5.98	5.66
Apples, fresh market 2/	cwt.	35.10	36.20	34.40	36.20	37.90	36.10

Milk, wholesale	cwt.	13.70	22.80	22.30	13.60	21.70	21.20
Milk cows 3/	head	1,550.00	-	1,930.00	1,650.00	-	2,020.00
Eggs, table market	doz.	0.370	1.000	0.820	0.365	0.960	0.803
Slaughter cows	cwt.	40.40	44.20	4/	46.00	49.10	46.80
Steers and heifers	cwt.	65.40	83.80	4/	93.70	98.10	96.70
All slaughter cattle	cwt.	41.90	44.20	4/	88.20	92.90	90.80
Calves	cwt.	137.00	99.70	4/	128.00	127.00	125.00
Hogs	cwt.	38.70	53.00	4/	46.50	46.60	42.60
Lambs	cwt.	93.50	117.00	4/	98.50	99.10	4/

Index (1990-92=100)
Prices received					115	141	142
Prices paid					148	159	159
Ratio prices received to prices paid					78	89	89

1/ Mid-month price for current month. Average price for entire month shown for previous periods. 2/ New York price is equivalent packinghouse door. 3/ Milk cow prices published quarterly. 4/ Price available next month.

Commercial Livestock Slaughter, September 1/

Species	Number Slaughtered				Total Live Weight
	New York		United States		New York		United States
	2006	2007	2006	2007	2006	2007	2006	2007
	1,000 head		1,000 head		Million pounds		Million pounds

Cattle	2.5	2.4	2,766.6	2,665.0	2.7	2.7	3,542.4	3,426.4
Calves	8.6	13.5	57.6	56.0	1.2	1.3	20.0	15.7
Hogs	2.9	2.8	8,832.7	8,774.9	.6	.5	2,348.6	2,334.7
Sheep and lambs	2.9	3.0	219.1	210.6	.2	.3	28.3	27.0

1/ Slaughter in federal and non-federal inspected plants. Excludes farm slaughter.

OCTOBER MILK PRODUCTION UP

New York dairy herds produced 1.02 billion pounds of milk during. Milk cows declined from the previous year while milk per cow increased from the previous year resulting in a 4 percent increase in milk production compared to October 2006. The number of milk cows averaged 626 thousand head, down 4 thousand head from October of the previous year. Milk per cow averaged 1630 pounds, up 80 pounds from the October 2006 rate.

Milk production in the 23 major States during October totaled 14.2 billion pounds, up 4.1 percent from October 2006. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,699 pounds for October, 47 pounds above October 2006. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.35 million head, 98,000 head more than October 2006, and 13,000 head more than September 2007.

Dairy Briefs

Item	Unit	New York			23 Major States
Item	Unit	Oct. 2006	Sep. 2007	Oct. 2007	Oct. 2006	Sep 2007	Oct. 2007

Milk Production	Mil. lb.	977	983	1,020	13,637	13,725	14,190
Milk per cow	Lb.	1,550	1,570	1,630	1,652	1,646	1,699
No. of milk cows	Thou. hd.	630	626	626	8,225	8,340	8,353

Dairy Products Manufactured

Item	Unit	New York			United States
Item	Unit	Sep. 2006	Aug. 2007	Sep. 2007	Sep. 2006	Aug 2007	Sep. 2007

Butter	Thou. lb.	966	646	939	104,317	109,804	111,948
American cheese	Thou. lb.	NA	NA	NA	320,115	312,183	303,053
Mozzarella cheese	Thou. lb.	15,087	17,841	17,268	258,736	264,074	263,701
Yogurt, plain and flavored	Thou. lb.	20,444	19,025	18,716	288,769	309,871	315,323
Ice cream, hard	Thou. gal.	2,186	2,972	2,019	74,979	82,797	70,928

NEW YORK EGG PRODUCTION UP 10 PERCENT IN SEPTEMBER

Egg production on New York farms totaled 103 million eggs in October 2007, up 10 percent from last year. The number of hens and pullets of laying age, at 4.24 million, increased 2 percent from October 2006 and the rate of lay increased 7 percent to 2,428 eggs per 100 layers.

U.S. egg production totaled 7.70 billion during October 2007, up slightly from last year. Production included 6.57 billion table eggs, and 1.13 billion hatching eggs, of which 1.06 billion were broiler-type and 67 million were egg-type. Eggs in incubators totaled 34.5 million on November 1, 2007, up 9 percent from a year ago.

Poultry Briefs

Item	Unit	Sep. 2006	Aug. 2007	Sep. 2007	Sep. 2006	Aug. 2007	Sep. 2007
		New York			United States

Number of layers	Thou.	4,051	4,195	4,208	343,147	339,508	339,841
Eggs per layer	No.	23.20	24.79	23.53	21.65	22.29	21.69
Eggs produced	Mil.	94	104	99	7,430	7,569	7,370

		North and South Atlantic States			United States

Chicks hatched, egg-type	Thou.	2/	2/	2/	36,873	36,838	35,270
Chicks hatched, broiler type	Thou.	2/	2/	2/	772,258	828,788	784,155
Chicken eggs in incubators 1/
Egg-type	Thou.	10,218	9,437	9,872	32,886	35,305	33,438
Broiler-type	Thou.	248,873	262,497	254,405	631,225	669,586	646,974

1/ First day of following month. 2/ Data not published to avoid disclosing individual operations.

This report, in addition to many others, is available free of charge
at our website at www.nass.usda.gov/ny/

The USDA, NASS New York Field Office thanks the agricultural businesses and farm operators who respond to our surveys. This complimentary report is being sent to those asking for the survey results during the survey interview.