USDA-NASS-NY NY Crop & Livestock Report August 2008

E-mail: nass-ny@nass.usda.gov
(518) 457-5570

NEW YORK CROP AND LIVESTOCK REPORT

August 2008

Monthly

No. 973-8-08

NEW YORK CROP PROSPECTS – AUGUST 1

New York grain corn production is forecast at 83.8 million bushels, up 20 percent from last year. Area for harvest is expected to total 640 thousand acres, 16 percent above a year ago. Yield is forecast at 131 bushels per acre, up 4 bushels from 2007, and two bushels higher than the previous record set in 2006. The crop was developing well due to warm temperatures and plentiful rainfall.

New York production of alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures, at 817 thousand tons, is 19 percent below 2007. Other dry hay production is expected to total 1.30 million tons, down 23 percent from a year ago. Due to the wet summer, yields were lower than expected. The all hay yield is the lowest since 1949. Oat production, expected to total 3.91 million bushels, is 14 percent above a year ago. Soybean production in the Empire State is estimated at a record high 10.4 million bushels, up from last year’s 7.71 million bushels.

U.S. CORN PRODUCTION DOWN AND SOYBEAN PRODUCTION UP

Corn production is forecast at 12.3 billion bushels, down 6 percent from last year but 17 percent above 2006. Based on conditions as of August 1, yields are expected to average 155.0 bushels per acre, up 3.9 bushels from last year. If realized, this yield would be the second highest on record, behind 2004. Production would be the second highest on record, behind last year when producers harvested the most acres of corn for grain since 1933. Forecasted yields are higher than last year in the northern and eastern Corn Belt, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and northern half of the Atlantic Coast where frequent precipitation this year contrasted with extremely dry weather last year. Expected yields across the southern half of the Great Plains and the Carolinas are below last year due to drought-like conditions throughout much of the growing season. Growers expect to harvest 79.3 million acres for grain, up 350,000 acres from June but 8 percent lower than last year.

Soybean production is forecast at 2.97 billion bushels, up 15 percent from last year but down 7 percent from the record high production of 2006. If realized, this will be the fourth largest production on record. Based on August 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 40.5 bushels per acre, down 0.7 bushel from 2007. Compared with last year, yields are forecast lower in Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Minnesota, Mississippi, Ohio, Texas, and across the northern and central Great Plains. In contrast, yield prospects are forecast higher than last year or unchanged across the remainder of the country, with the largest increases in Kentucky and Tennessee, up 13 and 12 bushels from last year, respectively. Area for harvest in the U.S. is forecast at 73.3 million acres, up 2 percent from June and up 17 percent from 2007.

Acreage, Yield and Production of Crops, New York and United States

Crop	Unit	Planted acres		Acres for harvest		Yield per acre		Production
Crop	Unit	2007	2008	2007	2008	2007	2008	2007	2008
		1,000 acres		1,000 acres		Units		1,000 units
New York
Corn for grain	bu.	1,050	1,140	550	640	127.0	131.0	69,850	83,840
Wheat, winter	bu.	100	130	85	117	52.0	61.0	4,420	7,137
Oats	bu.	100	80	60	55	57.0	71.0	3,420	3,905
Soybeans	bu.	205	235	203	231	38.0	45.0	7,714	10,395
Beans, dry 1/	lbs.	17.0	17.0	16.5	16.4	1,360.0	1,600.0	224	262
Potatoes, fall	cwt.	19.0	18.0	18.3	17.3	285.0	2/	5,216	2/
Hay, alfalfa	ton	-		420	430	2.4	1.9	1,008	817
Hay, other	ton	-		940	1,000	1.80	1.30	1,692	1,300
Apples	mil. lbs.	-	-	-	-	-	-	1,310	1,150
Grapes	ton	-	-	-	-	-	-	180.0	165.0
Pears	ton	-	-	-	-	-	-	11.0	9.7
Peaches	ton	-	-	-	-	-	-	6.3	5.7

United States
Corn for grain	bu.	93,600	87,327	86,542	79,290	151.1	155.0	13,073,893	12,287,875
Wheat, winter	bu.	44,987	46,605	35,952	40,252	42.2	46.6	1,515,989	1,874,857
Oats	bu.	3,760	3,467	1,505	1,443	60.9	62.3	91,599	89,897
Barley	bu.	4,020	4,130	3,508	3,640	60.4	59.9	211,825	217,976
Soybeans	bu.	63,631	74,533	62,820	73,341	41.2	40.5	2,585,207	2,972,577
Beans, dry 1/	lbs.	1,526.9	1,401.9	1,478.7	1,353.6	1,716	1,786	25,371	24,172
Potatoes, summer	cwt.	53.7	48.0	51.3	45.5	332.0	321.0	17,032	14,627
Potatoes, fall	cwt.	1010.6	929.1	996.7	916.2	410.0	2/	409,082	2/
Hay, alfalfa	ton	-		21,670	20,778	3.35	3.41	72,575	70,944
Hay, other	ton	-		39,955	39,661	1.95	1.94	77,729	77,011
Apples	mil. lbs.	-	-	-	-	-	-	9,113.9	9,165.2
Grapes	ton	-	-	-	-	-	-	7,018.0	7,195.1
Pears	ton	-	-	-	-	-	-	873.0	821.8
Peaches	ton	-	-	-	-	-	-	1,128.7	1,093.9

1/ Production in 100 lb. bags (cleaned basis). 2/ First forecast released November 9.

DRY BEANS: Planted Acreage by Classes,
New York and United States, 2006-2008

Class	New York			United States
Class	2006	2007	2008	2006	2007	2008
	1,000 acres			1,000 acres

Light Red Kidney	7.0	7.5	7.3	43.4	47.4	47.1
Dark Red Kidney	2.0	1.5	1.4	48.8	40.2	49.6
Black	9.0	7.0	7.6	167.4	175.7	159.0
All Other	1.0	1.0	0.7	1,370.2	1,263.6	1,146.2

TOTAL	19.0	17.0	17.0	1,629.8	1,526.9	1,401.9

Hired Workers on Farms and Wage Rates

Item	Northeast I 1/			United States
Item	July 9-15, 2006	Apr. 8-14, 2007	July 8-14, 2007	July 9-15, 2006	Apr. 8-14, 2007 ^2/	July 8-14, 2007
	1,000 workers

All hired workers	36	30	39	876	736	847
Worked 150 days or more	24	25	25	630	593	600
Worked less than 150 days	12	5	14	246	143	247

	Hours worked per worker

All hired workers	39.1	42.4	41.6	41.0	40.7	41.6

	Dollars per hour

Field workers	9.28	10.10	9.58	8.93	9.35	9.31
Livestock workers	9.57	9.59	9.37	9.49	9.59	9.80
Field and livestock workers	9.38	9.90	9.51	9.07	9.42	9.44
All hired workers	9.95	10.77	10.00	9.72	10.20	10.00

1/ New York and New England States (CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, VT) are combined into Northeast I region. 2/ Revised.

JULY 1 CATTLE INVENTORY
DOWN SLIGHTLY

All cattle and calves in the United States as of July 1, 2008, totaled 104.3 million head, slightly below the 104.8 million on July 1, 2007, and down 1 percent from the 105.2 million two years ago. All cows and heifers that have calved, at 42.4 million, was down slightly from both July 1, 2007 and July 1, 2006.

Beef cows, at 33.2 million, were down 1 percent from July 1, 2007 and 1 percent below two years ago. Milk cows, at 9.25 million, were up 1 percent from July 1, 2007 and 1 percent above two years ago.

All sheep and lamb inventory in the United States on July 1, 2008 totaled 7.35 million head, down 3 percent from July 1, 2007, and 5 percent below July 1, 2006. Breeding sheep inventory at 4.42 million head on July 1, 2008 was down 3 percent from July 1, 2007. Market sheep and lambs (including newborn lambs), at 3.93 million head, were down 4 percent from last July.

All goat inventory on July 1, 2008 totaled 3.73 million head, up 4 percent from the previous July number. Breeding goat inventory totaled 2.81 million head, up 4 percent from July 2007. All market goats and kids totaled 925,000 head, up 2 percent from the previous July.

CATTLE, SHEEP AND GOATS ON FARMS

United States, July 1, 2006-2008


Class	United States
Class	2006	2007	2008
	1,000 head

Cattle and Calves	105,200	104,800	104,300

Cows that have calved	42,600	42,500	42,400
Beef cows	33,450	33,350	33,150
Milk cows	9,150	9,150	9,250

Heifers 500 lbs. and over	16,600	16,600	16,500
For beef cow replacement	5,000	4,700	4,600
For milk cow replacement	3,800	3,900	3,900
Other heifers	7,800	8,000	8,000

Steers 500 lbs. and over	15,000	14,900	14,700
Bulls 500 lbs. and over	2,100	2,100	2,100
Calves under 500 pounds	28,900	28,700	28,600

Calf crop	37,519	37,361	37,250

All sheep and lambs	7,770	7,600	7,350
All breeding sheep	4,635	4,540	4,420
Ewes 1 year and older	3,780	3,710	3,620
Rams 1 year and older	185	185	180
Replacement lambs	670	645	620
Market sheep and lambs	3,135	3,060	2,930

Goats
All Goats	3,465	3,595	3,730
Breeding	2,575	2,690	2,805
Market	890	905	925

JULY MILK PRICES INCREASED FROM JUNE

Prices received by New York producers for milk sold during July were up from a month earlier. The price of corn, hay, and oats also increased. The price of wheat and eggs decreased. Many previous month prices were revised due to more complete sales information.

Grain corn, at $7.13 per bushel, was up 75 cents from June and increased $3.76 from last year. Hay averaged $168.00 per ton, up $39.00 from June and $45.00 more than July 2007. Wheat averaged $5.66 per bushel, down $2.83 from last month but 4 cents more than last year. Oats, at $3.90 per bushel, were up $1.05 from June and increased $1.81 from last year.

Dairy farmers in the Empire State received an average of $20.00 per hundredweight of milk sold during July, up $1.10 from June but $2.10 less than July a year ago. Poultry producers received an average of 64.7 cents per dozen eggs sold, down 31.1 cents from June and 24.3 cents lower than last year.

The preliminary All Farm Products Index of Prices Received by Farmers in July, at 161 percent, based on 1990-92=100, increased 3 points (1.9 percent) from June. The Crop Index is up 3 points (1.6 percent) and the Livestock Index increased 1 point (0.7 percent). Producers received higher prices for cattle, soybeans, broilers, and sweet corn, and lower prices for eggs, wheat, tomatoes, and cucumbers. In addition to prices, the overall index is affected by the seasonal change based on a 3-year average mix of commodities producers sell. Increased monthly marketings of wheat, grapes, hay, and tomatoes, offset decreased marketings of milk, cantaloups, potatoes, and apples.

Prices Received by Farmers 1/

Commodity	Unit	New York			United States
Commodity	Unit	July 2007	June 2008	July 2008	July 2007	June 2008	July 2008
		Dollars			Dollars

Corn	bu.	3.76	6.38	7.13	3.32	5.48	5.61
Oats	bu.	2.09	2.85	3.90	2.32	3.49	3.57
Wheat	bu.	5.62	8.49	5.79	5.17	7.62	7.29
Barley	bu.	2.76	-	-	3.46	4.75	4.61
Soybeans	bu.	7.85	-	-	7.56	13.20	14.20
Hay, baled	ton	123.00	129.00	168.00	131.00	161.00	164.00
Potatoes	cwt.	-	-	-	8.48	10.78	11.42
Apples, fresh market 2/	cwt.	-	38.30	-	30.60	40.90	44.60

Milk, wholesale	cwt.	22.10	18.90	20.00	21.60	19.30	19.40
Milk cows 3/	head	1,820.00	-	1,900.00	1,950.00	-	1,990.00
Eggs, table market	doz.	0.890	0.958	0.647	0.814	0.927	0.668
Slaughter cows	cwt.	46.70	52.40	4/	51.50	54.30	56.40
Steers and heifers	cwt.	76.10	55.10	4/	93.00	96.40	100.00
All slaughter cattle	cwt.	48.70	52.80	4/	89.00	92.00	95.70
Calves	cwt.	97.40	67.80	4/	126.00	118.00	115.00
Hogs	cwt.	48.60	46.40	4/	52.20	53.30	52.50
Lambs	cwt.	84.70	99.80	4/	98.70	102.00	4/

Index (1990-92=100)
Prices received					139	158	161
Prices paid					162	189	191
Ratio prices received to prices paid					86	84	84

1/ Mid-month price for current month. Average price for entire month shown for previous periods. 2/ New York price is equivalent packinghouse door. 3/ Milk cow prices published quarterly. 4/ Price available next month.

Commercial Livestock Slaughter, June 1/

Species	Number Slaughtered				Total Live Weight
	New York		United States		New York		United States
	2007	2008	2007	2008	2007	2008	2007	2008
	1,000 head		1,000 head		Million pounds		Million pounds

Cattle	2.0	2.2	3,076.5	2,955.5	2.3	2.7	3,833.5	3,716.9
Calves	11.0	17.2	61.3	75.4	1.4	2.0	18.7	19.8
Hogs	2.5	2.8	8,297.2	8,884.7	.4	.5	2,210.5	2,359.0
Sheep and lambs	2.9	2.5	200.6	192.4	.2	.2	27.4	26.3

1/ Slaughter in federal and non-federal inspected plants. Excludes farm slaughter.

JULY MILK PRODUCTION UP

New York dairy herds produced 1.06 billion pounds of milk during July. Milk cows were unchanged from the previous year while milk per cow increased from the previous year resulting in a 2 percent increase in milk production compared to July 2007. The number of milk cows averaged 626 thousand head, unchanged from July of the previous year. Milk per cow averaged 1690 pounds, up 40 pounds from the July 2007 rate.

Milk production in the 23 major States during July totaled 14.8 billion pounds, up 1.7 percent from July 2007. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,742 pounds for July, unchanged from July 2007. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.47 million head, 143,000 head more than July 2007, and 5,000 head more than June 2008.

Dairy Briefs

Item	Unit	New York			23 Major States
Item	Unit	July 2007	June 2008	July 2008	July 2007	June 2008	July 2008

Milk Production	Mil. lb.	1,033	1,052	1,058	14,500	14,678	14,750
Milk per cow	Lb.	1,650	1,680	1,690	1,742	1,735	1,742
No. of milk cows	Thou. hd.	626	626	626	8,322	8,460	8,465

Dairy Products Manufactured

Item	Unit	New York			United States
Item	Unit	June 2007	May 2008	June 2008	June 2007	May 2008	June 2008

Butter	Thou. lb.	879	2,184	1,374	109,980	142,599	119,840
American cheese	Thou. lb.	N/A	N/A	N/A	315,522	351,343	332,510
Mozzarella cheese	Thou. lb.	17,096	17,047	15,982	274,913	270,913	260,182
Yogurt, plain and flavored	Thou. lb.	19,437	20,040	19,044	284,869	299,007	293,290
Ice cream, hard	Thou. gal.	2,605	2,304	2,798	87,058	80,737	89,993

NEW YORK EGG PRODUCTION UP 4 PERCENT IN JUNE

Egg production on New York farms totaled 94 million eggs in June 2008, up 4 percent from last year. The number of hens and pullets of laying age, at 3.96 million, increased 4 percent from June 2007 and the rate of lay increased slightly to 2,374 eggs per 100 layers.

U.S. egg production totaled 7.37 billion during June 2008, down slightly from last year. Production included 6.27 billion table eggs, and 1.10 billion hatching eggs, of which 1.03 billion were broiler-type and 64 million were egg-type. The total number of layers during June 2008 averaged 339 million, down slightly from last year.

Poultry Briefs

Item	Unit	June 2007	May 2008	June 2008	June 2007	May 2008	June 2008
		New York			United States

Number of layers	Thou.	3,808	4,005	3,960	339,373	339,791	337,242
Eggs per layer	No.	23.63	24.97	23.74	21.69	22.25	21.76
Eggs produced	Mil.	90	100	94	7,380	7,571	7,366

		North and South Atlantic States			United States

Chicks hatched, egg-type	Thou.	2/	2/	2/	40,641	42,724	42,538
Chicks hatched, broiler type	Thou.	2/	2/	2/	808,329	823,718	806,202
Chicken eggs in incubators 1/
Egg-type	Thou.	10,110	10,223	9,292	32,904	37,595	35,922
Broiler-type	Thou.	258,814	258,324	254,281	665,958	674,213	657,943

1/ First day of following month. 2/ Data not published to avoid disclosing individual operations.

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at our website at www.nass.usda.gov/ny/

The USDA, NASS New York Field Office thanks the agricultural businesses and farm operators who respond to our surveys. This complimentary report is being sent to those asking for the survey results during the survey interview.