USDA-NASS-NY NY Crop & Lvstk Report Sept 2008

E-mail: nass-ny@nass.usda.gov
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NEW YORK CROP AND LIVESTOCK REPORT
September 2008

Monthly
No. 973-9-08

NEW YORK CORN AND SOYBEAN PRODUCTION UP

Based on conditions as of September 1, New York grain corn production is now expected to total a record high 83.8 million bushels, up 20 percent from the 69.9 million bushels produced in 2007. Acreage for harvest is estimated at 640,000 acres, 16 percent more than the 550,000 acres harvested for grain last year. Yields are expected to average a record high 131 bushels per acre, the same as the August forecast, and 4 bushels above 2007. U.S. corn production is forecast at 12.1 billion bushels, down 2 percent from last month and 8 percent below 2007. Based on conditions as of September 1, yields are expected to average 152.3 bushels per acre, down 2.7 bushels from August but 1.2 bushels above last year. If realized, yield will be the second highest on record, behind 2004, while production will be the second largest, behind last year. Yield forecasts are lower than last month across the northern and eastern Corn Belt and the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys where the lack of rainfall during August reduced soil moisture supplies and stressed the crop. Yield prospects also decreased across much of the middle Mississippi Valley and adjacent areas of the Great Plains as dry weather during August eliminated soil moisture surpluses.

Soybean production in the Empire State is forecast at a record high 10.6 million bushels, up 38 percent from the 7.71 million bushels produced in 2007. Acreage for harvest is also a record high 231,000 acres up 14 percent from the 203,000 acres harvested last year. Yields are expected to be the same as the 2006 record high of 46 bushels per acre, up 1 bushel from last month, and up 8 bushels from last year. U.S. soybean production is forecast at 2.93 billion bushels, down 1 percent from the August forecast but up 13 percent from last year. If realized, this will be the fourth largest production on record. Based on September 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 40.0 bushels per acre, down 0.5 bushel from last month and down 1.2 bushels from 2007. Compared with last month, yields are forecast lower or unchanged in the mid-Atlantic States, the central and eastern Corn Belt, Louisiana, Nebraska, and South Dakota. Yields increased or are unchanged from the August 1 forecast across the Southeast and the remainder of the Great Plains. Area for harvest in the U.S. is forecast at 73.3 million acres, unchanged from last month but up 17 percent from 2007.

Acreage, Yield and Production of Crops, New York and United States

Crop	Unit	Planted acres		Acres for harvest		Yield per acre		Production
Crop	Unit	2007	2008	2007	2008	2007	2008	2007	2008
		*1,000 acres*		*1,000 acres*		*Units*		*1,000 units*
New York
Corn for grain	bu.	1,050	1,140	550	640	127.0	131.0	69,850	83,84
Wheat, winter	bu.	100	130	85	117	52.0	61.0	4,420	7,137
Oats	bu.	100	80	60	55	57.0	71.0	3,420	3,905
Soybeans	bu.	205	235	203	231	38.0	45.0	7,714	10,626
Beans, dry 1/	lbs.	17.0	17.0	16.5	16.4	1,360.0	1,600.0	224	262
Potatoes, fall	cwt.	19.0	18.0	18.3	17.3	285.0	2/	5,216	2/
Hay, alfalfa	ton	-		420	430	2.4	1.9	1,008	817
Hay, other	ton	-		940	1,000	1.80	1.30	1,692	1,300
Apples	mil. lbs.	-	-	-	-	-	-	1,310	1,150
Grapes	ton	-	-	-	-	-	-	180.0	165.0
Pears	ton	-	-	-	-	-	-	11.0	9.7
Peaches	ton	-	-	-	-	-	-	6.3	5.7
United States
Corn for grain	bu.	93,600	87,327	86,542	79,290	151.1	152.3	13,073,893	12,072,365
Wheat, winter	bu.	44,987	46,605	35,952	40,252	42.2	46.6	1,515,989	1,874,857
Oats	bu.	3,760	3,467	1,505	1,443	60.9	62.3	91,599	89,897
Barley	bu.	4,020	4,130	3,508	3,640	60.4	59.9	211,825	217,976
Soybeans	bu.	63,631	74,533	62,820	73,341	41.2	40.0	2,585,207	2,933,888
Beans, dry 1/	lbs.	1,526.9	1,401.9	1,478.7	1,353.6	1,716	1,786	25,371	24,172
Potatoes, summer	cwt.	53.7	48.0	51.3	45.5	332.0	321.0	17,032	14,627
Potatoes, fall	cwt.	1,148.8	1,057.8	1,129.7	1,041.1	396.0	2/	446,807	2/
Hay, alfalfa	ton	-		21,670	20,778	3.35	3.41	72,575	70,944
Hay, other	ton	-		39,955	39,661	1.95	1.94	77,729	77,011
Apples	mil. lbs.	-	-	-	-	-	-	9,113.9	9,165.2
Grapes	ton	-	-	-	-	-	-	7,018.0	7,195.1
Pears	ton	-	-	-	-	-	-	873.0	821.8
Peaches	ton	-	-	-	-	-	-	1,128.7	1,093.9
1/ Production in 100 lb. bags (cleaned basis). 2/ First forecast released November 9.

CATTLE AND CALVES: Number of cattle operations, by herd size,

New York, 2005-2007 Year	Herd Size
New York, 2005-2007 Year	1-49	50-99	100-499	500-999	1,000+	Total
	*Number of operations*
2005	7,600	3,000	3,700	250	150	14,700
2006	7,500	2,900	3,400	250	150	14,200
2007	7,700	2,900	3,300	250	150	14,300

CATTLE AND CALVES: Percent of inventory, by herd size, New York, 2005-2007

Year	Herd size
Year	1-49	50-99	100-499	500-999	1,000+
	*Percent*
2005	9.0	15.0	45.0	12.0	19.0
2006	10.0	15.0	42.0	12.5	20.5
2007	10.0	15.0	41.0	12.0	22.0

MILK COWS: Number of milk cow operations, by herd size, New York, 2005-2007

Year	Number of milk cows in herd
Year	1-29	30-49	50-99	100-199	200-499	500 plus	Total
	*Number of operations*
2005	1,400	1,300	2,500	890	440	170	6,700
2006	1,300	1,300	2,300	920	420	160	6,400
2007	1,300	1,300	2,100	890	430	180	6,200

MILK COWS: Percent of inventory, by herd size, New York, 2005-2007

Year	1-29	30-49	50-99	100-199	200-499	500 plus
	*Percent*
2005	2.0	7.5	25.5	18.5	20.5	26.0
2006	2.5	8.0	23.5	20.0	20.0	26.0
2007	2.5	8.0	22.0	18.5	20.0	29.0

AUGUST MILK PRICES DECREASE FROM JULY

Prices received by New York producers for milk sold during August were down from a month earlier. The price of corn, hay, and oats also decreased. The price of wheat, potatoes, and eggs increased. Many previous month prices were revised due to more complete sales information.

Grain corn, at $5.60 per bushel, was down 71 cents from July but increased $1.67 from last year. Potatoes, at $18.80 per hundredweight, were up $4.80 from last year at this time. Hay averaged $163.00 per ton, down $5.00 from July but up $41.00 from August 2007. Wheat averaged $7.53 per bushel, up 19 cents from last month and $1.53 more than last year. Oats, at $3.20 per bushel, were down 4 cents from July but increased $1.20 from last year.

Dairy farmers in the Empire State received an average of $19.00 per hundredweight of milk sold during August, down $1.00 from July and $3.70 less than August a year ago. Poultry producers received an average of 88.3 cents per dozen eggs sold, up 23.6 cents from July and 9.9 cents higher than last year.

The preliminary All Farm Products Index of Prices Received by Farmers in August, at 155 percent, based on 1990-92=100, decreased 4 points (2.5 percent) from July. The Crop Index is down 7 points (3.8 percent) and the Livestock Index declined 1 point (0.7 percent). Producers received lower prices for corn, broilers, soybeans, and milk. Higher prices were realized for wheat, hogs, eggs, and strawberries. In addition to prices, the overall index is also affected by the seasonal change based on a 3-year average mix of commodities producers sell. Increased monthly marketings of cattle, grapes, sweet corn, and potatoes offset decreased marketings of wheat, hay, milk, and broilers.

Prices Received by Farmers 1/

Commodity	Unit	New York			United States
Commodity	Unit	Aug 2006	July 2007	Aug 2007	Aug 2006	July 2007	Aug 2007
		*Dollars*			*Dollars*
Corn	bu.	3.93	6.31	5.60	3.26	5.24	4.90
Oats	bu.	2.00	--	3.20	2.24	3.46	3.17
Wheat	bu.	6.00	7.34	7.53	5.64	7.16	8.02
Barley	bu.	-	-	-	3.55	5.11	5.00
Soybeans	bu.	8.09	-	-	7.72	13.30	12.10
Hay, baled	ton	122.00	168.00	163.00	124.00	164.00	165.00
Potatoes	cwt.	14.20	-	18.80	6.85	12.33	11.32
Apples, fresh market 2/	cwt.	-	-	-	34.40	44.60	53.40

Milk, wholesale	cwt.	22.70	20.00	19.00	21.60	19.40	18.50
Milk cows 3/	head	-	1,900.00	-	-	1,990.00	-
Eggs, table market	doz.	0.784	0.647	0.883	0.722	0.668	0.815
Slaughter cows	cwt.	47.40	53.00	4/	51.50	56.40	57.60
Steers and heifers	cwt.	78.20	88.90	4/	95.70	99.60	100.00
All slaughter cattle	cwt.	49.80	57.10	4/	91.40	95.10	96.10
Calves	cwt.	87.90	47.50	4/	127.00	115.00	114.00
Hogs	cwt.	43.40	47.60	4/	51.30	54.20	59.70
Lambs	cwt.	82.40	92.00	4/	97.90	103.00	4/

Index (1990-92=100)
Prices received					139	159	155
Prices paid					162	192	194
Ratio prices received to prices paid					86	83	80
1/ Mid-month price for current month. Average price for entire month shown for previous periods 2/ New York price is equivalent packinghouse door. 3/ Milk cow prices published quarterly. 4/ Price available next month

Commercial Livestock Slaughter, July 1/

Species	Number Slaughtered				Total Live Weight
	New York		United States		New York		United States
	2007	2008	2007	2008	2007	2008	2007	2008
	*1,000 head*		*1,000 head*		*Million pounds*		*Million pounds*
Cattle	2.1	2.4	2,903.1	3,064.0	2.4	2.8	3,673.9	3,888.2
Calves	13.1	23.2	62.5	87.9	1.5	2.3	17.9	21.1
Hogs	3.1	3.1	8,399.0	9,465.2	.5	.6	2,217.2	2,480.1
Sheep and lambs	3.0	2.6	206.0	207.8	.3	.2	27.0	27.4
1/ Slaughter in federal and non-federal inspected plants. Excludes farm slaughter

NEW YORK AUGUST MILK PRODUCTION UP

New York dairy herds produced 1.06 billion pounds of milk during August. Milk cows were up from the previous year and milk per cow increased from the previous year resulting in a 3 percent increase in milk production compared to August 2007. The number of milk cows averaged 626 thousand head, up 1,000 head from August of the previous year. Milk per cow averaged 1690 pounds, up 50 pounds from the August 2007 rate.

Milk production in the 23 major States during August totaled 14.5 billion pounds, up 1.5 percent from August 2007. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,717 pounds for August, 2 pounds below August 2007. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.47 million head, 137,000 head more than August 2007, but 3,000 head less than July 2008.

Dairy Briefs

Item	Unit	New York			23 Major States
Item	Unit	Aug. 2007	July 2008	Aug. 2008	Aug. 2007	July 2008	Aug. 2008
Milk Production	Mil. lb.	1,025	1,058	1,058	14,323	14,762	14,539
Milk per cow	Lb.	1,640	1,690	1,690	1,719	1,743	1,717
No. of milk cows	Thou. hd.	625	626	626	8,330	8,470	8,467

Dairy Products Manufactured

Item	Unit	New York			United States
Item	Unit	July 2007	June 2008	July 2008	July 2007	June 2008	July 2008
Butter	Thou. lb.	1,037	1,374	1,445	116,493	119,800	116,579
American cheese	Thou. lb.	N/A	N/A	N/A	324,709	335,185	340,739
Mozzarella cheese	Thou. lb.	16,389	15,982	16,352	271,574	259,982	259,340
Yogurt, plain and flavored	Thou. lb.	20,117	19,017	19,413	278,479	293,243	282,090
Ice cream, hard	Thou. gal.	2,712	2,798	2,702	84,428	90,527	81,930

NEW YORK EGG PRODUCTION DOWN 1 PERCENT IN JULY

Egg production on New York farms totaled 95 million eggs in July 2008, down 1 percent from last year. The number of hens and pullets of laying age, at 3.85 million, decreased 2 percent from July 2007 but the rate of lay increased 1 percent to 2,470 eggs per 100 layers.

U.S. egg production totaled 7.60 billion during July 2008, up slightly from last year. Production included 6.49 billion table eggs, and 1.12 billion hatching eggs, of which 1.05 billion were broiler-type and 64 million were egg-type. The total number of layers during July 2008 averaged 336 million, down 1 percent from last year. Eggs in incubators totaled 33.0 million on August 1, 2008, up 2 percent from a year ago.

Poultry Briefs

Item	Unit	July 2007	June 2008	July 2008	July 2007	June 2008	July 2008
		*New York*			*United States*
Number of layers	Thou.	3,910	3,960	3,846	340,035	338,612	336,101
Eggs per layer	No.	2,455	2,374	2,470	2,235	2,177	2,262
Eggs produced	Mil.	96	94	95	7,599	7,370	7,601
		*North and South Atlantic States*			*United States*
Chicks hatched, egg-type	Thou.	2/	2/	2/	35,952	42,538	37,929
Chicks hatched, broiler type	Thou.	2/	2/	2/	818,983	806,202	806,555
Chicken eggs in incubators 1/
Egg-type	Thou.	8,636	9,292	7,380	32,441	35,922	33,040
Broiler-type	Thou.	261,036	254,281	252,632	674,016	657,943	650,798
1/ First day of following month. 2/ Data not published to avoid disclosing individual operations.

This report, in addition to many others, is available free of charge at our website at www.nass.usda.gov/ny/

The USDA, NASS New York Field Office thanks the agricultural businesses and farm operators who respond to our surveys. This complimentary report is being sent to those asking for the survey results during the survey interview.