E-mail: nass-ny@nass.usda.gov
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NEW YORK CROP AND LIVESTOCK REPORT
September 2008

Monthly
No. 973-9-08

NEW YORK CORN AND SOYBEAN PRODUCTION UP

Based on conditions as of September 1, New York grain corn production is now expected to total a record high 83.8 million bushels, up 20 percent from the 69.9 million bushels produced in 2007. Acreage for harvest is estimated at 640,000 acres, 16 percent more than the 550,000 acres harvested for grain last year. Yields are expected to average a record high 131 bushels per acre, the same as the August forecast, and 4 bushels above 2007.  U.S. corn production is forecast at 12.1 billion bushels, down 2 percent from last month and 8 percent below 2007. Based on conditions as of September 1, yields are expected to average 152.3 bushels per acre, down 2.7 bushels from August but 1.2 bushels above last year. If realized, yield will be the second highest on record, behind 2004, while production will be the second largest, behind last year. Yield forecasts are lower than last month across the northern and eastern Corn Belt and the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys where the lack of rainfall during August reduced soil moisture supplies and stressed the crop.  Yield prospects also decreased across much of the middle Mississippi Valley and adjacent areas of the Great Plains as dry weather during August eliminated soil moisture surpluses.

Soybean production in the Empire State is forecast at a record high 10.6 million bushels, up 38 percent from the 7.71 million bushels produced in 2007. Acreage for harvest is also a record high 231,000 acres up 14 percent from the 203,000 acres harvested last year. Yields are expected to be the same as the 2006 record high of 46 bushels per acre, up 1 bushel from last month, and up 8 bushels from last year.  U.S. soybean production is forecast at 2.93 billion bushels, down 1 percent from the August forecast but up 13 percent from last year. If realized, this will be the fourth largest production on record. Based on September 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 40.0 bushels per acre, down 0.5 bushel from last month and down 1.2 bushels from 2007. Compared with last month, yields are forecast lower or unchanged in the mid-Atlantic States, the central and eastern Corn Belt, Louisiana, Nebraska, and South Dakota. Yields increased or are unchanged from the August 1 forecast across the Southeast and the remainder of the Great Plains. Area for harvest in the U.S. is forecast at 73.3 million acres, unchanged from last month but up 17 percent from 2007.

Acreage, Yield and Production of Crops, New York and United States

Crop

Unit

Planted acres

Acres for harvest

Yield per acre

Production

2007

2008

2007

2008

2007

2008

2007

2008

   

1,000 acres

1,000 acres

Units

1,000 units

New York

                 

Corn for grain

bu.

1,050

1,140

550

640

127.0

131.0

69,850

83,84

Wheat, winter

bu.

100

130

85

117

52.0

61.0

4,420

7,137

Oats

bu.

100

80

60

55

57.0

71.0

3,420

3,905

Soybeans

bu.

205

235

203

231

38.0

45.0

7,714

10,626

Beans, dry 1/

lbs.

17.0

17.0

16.5

16.4

1,360.0

1,600.0

224

262

Potatoes, fall

cwt.

19.0

18.0

18.3

17.3

    285.0

2/

5,216

2/

Hay, alfalfa

ton

-

 

420

430

2.4

1.9

          1,008

817

Hay, other

ton

-

 

940

1,000

1.80

1.30

1,692

1,300

Apples

mil. lbs.

-

-

-

-

-

-

1,310

1,150

Grapes

ton

-

-

-

-

-

-

180.0

165.0

Pears

ton

-

-

-

-

-

-

11.0

9.7

Peaches

ton

-

-

-

-

-

-

6.3

5.7

United States

                 

Corn for grain

bu.

93,600

87,327

86,542

79,290

151.1

152.3

13,073,893

12,072,365

Wheat, winter

bu.

44,987

46,605

35,952

40,252

42.2

46.6

1,515,989

1,874,857

Oats

bu.

3,760

3,467

1,505

1,443

60.9

62.3

91,599

89,897

Barley

bu.

4,020

4,130

3,508

3,640

60.4

59.9

211,825

217,976

Soybeans

bu.

63,631

74,533

62,820

73,341

41.2

40.0

2,585,207

2,933,888

Beans, dry 1/

lbs.

1,526.9

1,401.9

1,478.7

1,353.6

1,716

1,786

25,371

24,172

Potatoes, summer

cwt.

53.7

48.0

51.3

45.5

332.0

321.0

17,032

14,627

Potatoes, fall

cwt.

1,148.8

1,057.8

1,129.7

1,041.1

396.0

2/

      446,807

2/

Hay, alfalfa

ton

-

 

21,670

20,778

3.35

3.41

72,575

70,944

Hay, other

ton

-

 

39,955

39,661

1.95

1.94

77,729

77,011

Apples

mil. lbs.

-

-

-

-

-

-

9,113.9

9,165.2

Grapes

ton

-

-

-

-

-

-

7,018.0

7,195.1

Pears

ton

-

-

-

-

-

-

873.0

821.8

Peaches

ton

-

-

-

-

-

-

1,128.7

1,093.9

1/   Production in 100 lb. bags (cleaned basis).
2
/   First forecast released November 9.


2008 TURKEY OUTPUT IN NEW YORK EXPECTED TO DECREASE

New York turkey producers expect to raise an estimated 630,000 turkeys during 2008, according to the USDA National Agriculture Statistics Service, New York Field Office. This total will be 2 percent below the 640,000 birds raised in 2007.

The preliminary estimate of turkeys raised in the United States during 2008 is 271 million, down slightly from the number raised during 2007.

The following six States are expected to account for about two-thirds of the turkeys produced in the United States during 2008: Minnesota, at 49.0 million turkeys, is up 2 percent from last year; North Carolina, at 39.0 million turkeys, is unchanged from last year; Arkansas, at 31.0 million turkeys, is unchanged from a year ago; Virginia, at 21.0 million turkeys, is unchanged from 2007; Missouri, at 20.0 million turkeys, is unchanged from last year; and Indiana, at 15.9 million turkeys, is up 5 percent from last year.



 CATTLE AND CALVES:  Number of cattle operations, by herd size,

New York, 2005-2007
Year

Herd Size

1-49

50-99

100-499

500-999

1,000+

Total

 

Number of operations

2005

7,600

3,000

3,700

250

150

14,700

2006

7,500

2,900

3,400

250

150

14,200

2007

7,700

2,900

3,300

250

150

14,300

CATTLE AND CALVES:  Percent of inventory, by herd size, New York, 2005-2007

Year

Herd size

1-49

50-99

100-499

500-999

1,000+

 

Percent

2005

  9.0

15.0

45.0

12.0

19.0

2006

10.0

15.0

42.0

12.5

20.5

2007

10.0

15.0

41.0

12.0

22.0

MILK COWS:  Number of milk cow operations, by herd size, New York, 2005-2007

Year

Number of milk cows in herd

1-29

30-49

50-99

100-199

200-499

500 plus

Total

 

Number of operations

2005

1,400

1,300

2,500

890

440

170

6,700

2006

1,300

1,300

2,300

920

420

160

6,400

2007

1,300

1,300

2,100

890

430

180

6,200

MILK COWS:  Percent of inventory, by herd size, New York, 2005-2007

Year

1-29

30-49

50-99

100-199

200-499

500 plus

 

Percent

2005

2.0

7.5

25.5

18.5

20.5

26.0

2006

2.5

8.0

23.5

20.0

20.0

26.0

2007

2.5

8.0

22.0

18.5

20.0

29.0

2


AUGUST MILK PRICES DECREASE FROM JULY

Prices received by New York producers for milk sold during August were down from a month earlier. The price of corn, hay, and oats also decreased.  The price of wheat, potatoes, and eggs increased.  Many previous month prices were revised due to more complete sales information.

Grain corn, at $5.60 per bushel, was down 71 cents from July but increased $1.67 from last year.  Potatoes, at $18.80 per hundredweight, were up $4.80 from last year at this time.  Hay averaged $163.00 per ton, down $5.00 from July but up $41.00 from August 2007.  Wheat averaged $7.53 per bushel, up 19 cents from last month and $1.53 more than last year.  Oats, at $3.20 per bushel, were down 4 cents from July but increased $1.20 from last year.

Dairy farmers in the Empire State received an average of $19.00 per hundredweight of milk sold during August, down $1.00 from July and $3.70 less than August a year ago.  Poultry producers received an average of 88.3 cents per dozen eggs sold, up 23.6 cents from July and 9.9 cents higher than last year.

The preliminary All Farm Products Index of Prices Received by Farmers in August, at 155 percent, based on 1990-92=100, decreased 4 points (2.5 percent) from July. The Crop Index is down 7 points (3.8 percent) and the Livestock Index declined 1 point (0.7 percent). Producers received lower prices for corn, broilers, soybeans, and milk. Higher prices were realized for wheat, hogs, eggs, and strawberries. In addition to prices, the overall index is also affected by the seasonal change based on a 3-year average mix of commodities producers sell. Increased monthly marketings of cattle, grapes, sweet corn, and potatoes offset decreased marketings of wheat, hay, milk, and broilers.

Prices Received by Farmers 1/

                      Commodity

Unit

New York

United States

Aug 2006

July 2007

Aug 2007

Aug  2006

July 2007

Aug 2007

   

Dollars

Dollars

Corn

  bu.

3.93

6.31

5.60

3.26

5.24

4.90

Oats

  bu.

2.00

--

3.20

2.24

3.46

3.17

Wheat

  bu.

6.00

7.34

7.53

5.64

7.16

8.02

Barley

  bu.

-

-

-

3.55

5.11

5.00

Soybeans

  bu.

8.09

-

-

7.72

13.30

12.10

Hay, baled

  ton

122.00

168.00

163.00

124.00

164.00

165.00

Potatoes

  cwt.

14.20

-

18.80

6.85

12.33

11.32

Apples, fresh market 2/

  cwt.

-

-

-

34.40

44.60

53.40

               

Milk, wholesale

  cwt.

22.70

20.00

19.00

21.60

19.40

18.50

Milk cows 3/

  head

 -

1,900.00

 -

1,990.00

Eggs, table market

  doz.

0.784

0.647

0.883

0.722

0.668

0.815

Slaughter cows

  cwt.

47.40

53.00

4/

51.50

56.40

57.60

Steers and heifers

  cwt.

78.20

88.90

4/

95.70

99.60

100.00

All slaughter cattle

  cwt.

49.80

57.10

4/

91.40

95.10

96.10

Calves

  cwt.

87.90

47.50

4/

127.00

115.00

114.00

Hogs

  cwt.

43.40

47.60

4/

51.30

54.20

59.70

Lambs

  cwt.

82.40

92.00

4/

97.90

103.00

4/

               

Index (1990-92=100)

             

Prices received

       

139

159

155

Prices paid

       

162

192

194

Ratio prices received to prices paid

       

86

83

80

1/  Mid-month price for current month.  Average price for entire month shown for previous periods
2
/  New York price is equivalent packinghouse door.
3
/  Milk cow prices published quarterly.
4
/  Price available next month

.

Commercial Livestock Slaughter, July 1/

Species

Number Slaughtered

Total Live Weight

New York

United States

New York

United States

2007

2008

2007

2008

2007

2008

2007

2008

 

1,000 head

1,000 head

Million pounds

Million pounds

Cattle

2.1

2.4

2,903.1

3,064.0

2.4

2.8

3,673.9

3,888.2

Calves

13.1

23.2

62.5

87.9

1.5

2.3

17.9

21.1

Hogs

3.1

3.1

8,399.0

9,465.2

.5

.6

2,217.2

2,480.1

Sheep and lambs

3.0

2.6

206.0

207.8

.3

.2

27.0

27.4

1/  Slaughter in federal and non-federal inspected plants.  Excludes farm slaughter

3

NEW YORK AUGUST MILK PRODUCTION UP

New York dairy herds produced 1.06 billion pounds of milk during August.  Milk cows were up from the previous year and milk per cow increased from the previous year resulting in a 3 percent increase in milk production compared to August 2007.  The number of milk cows averaged 626 thousand head, up 1,000 head from August of the previous year.  Milk per cow averaged 1690 pounds, up 50 pounds from the August 2007 rate.

Milk production in the 23 major States during August totaled 14.5 billion pounds, up 1.5 percent from August 2007.  Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,717 pounds for August, 2 pounds below August 2007. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.47 million head, 137,000 head more than August 2007, but 3,000 head less than July 2008.

Dairy Briefs

Item

Unit

New York

23 Major States

Aug. 2007

July 2008

Aug. 2008

Aug. 2007

July 2008

Aug. 2008

Milk Production

  Mil. lb.

1,025

1,058

1,058

14,323

14,762

14,539

Milk per cow

  Lb.

1,640

1,690

1,690

1,719

1,743

1,717

No. of milk cows

  Thou. hd.

625

626

626

8,330

8,470

8,467

Dairy Products Manufactured

Item

Unit

New York

United States

July 2007

June 2008

July 2008

July 2007

June 2008

July 2008

Butter

  Thou. lb.

1,037

1,374

1,445

116,493

119,800

116,579

American cheese

  Thou. lb.

N/A

N/A

N/A

324,709

335,185

340,739

Mozzarella cheese

  Thou. lb.

16,389

15,982

16,352

271,574

259,982

259,340

Yogurt, plain and flavored

  Thou. lb.

20,117

19,017

19,413

278,479

293,243

282,090

Ice cream, hard

  Thou. gal.

2,712

2,798

2,702

84,428

90,527

81,930

NEW YORK EGG PRODUCTION DOWN 1 PERCENT IN JULY

Egg production on New York farms totaled 95 million eggs in July 2008, down 1 percent from last year.  The number of hens and pullets of laying age, at 3.85 million, decreased 2 percent from July 2007 but the rate of lay increased 1 percent to 2,470 eggs per 100 layers.

U.S. egg production totaled 7.60 billion during July 2008, up slightly from last year. Production included 6.49 billion table eggs, and 1.12 billion hatching eggs, of which 1.05 billion were broiler-type and 64 million were egg-type. The total number of layers during July 2008 averaged 336 million, down 1 percent from last year.  Eggs in incubators totaled 33.0 million on August 1, 2008, up 2 percent from a year ago. 

Poultry Briefs

Item

Unit

July 2007

June 2008

July 2008

July 2007

June 2008

July 2008

   

New York

United States

Number of layers

  Thou.

3,910

3,960

3,846

340,035

338,612

336,101

Eggs per layer

  No.

2,455

2,374

2,470

2,235

2,177

2,262

Eggs produced

  Mil.

96

94

95

7,599

7,370

7,601

   

North and South Atlantic States

United States

Chicks hatched, egg-type

  Thou.

        2/

        2/

        2/

35,952

42,538

37,929

Chicks hatched, broiler type

  Thou.

        2/

        2/

        2/

818,983

806,202

806,555

Chicken eggs in incubators 1/

             

Egg-type

  Thou.

8,636

9,292

7,380

32,441

35,922

33,040

Broiler-type

  Thou.

261,036

254,281

252,632

674,016

657,943

650,798

1/ First day of following month.
2
/ Data not published to avoid disclosing individual operations.


This report, in addition to many others, is available free of charge at our website at www.nass.usda.gov/ny/

The USDA, NASS New York Field Office thanks the agricultural businesses and farm operators who respond to our surveys.  This complimentary report is being sent to those asking for the survey results during the survey interview.