E-mail: nass-ny@nass.usda.gov (518) 457-5570 NEW YORK CROP AND LIVESTOCK REPORT November 2010 Monthly No. 973-11-10 RECORD HIGH SOYBEAN AND CORN YIELD FORECAST FOR NEW YORK Soybean production in New York is forecast at a record high 13.8 million bushels, up 27 percent from last year. Acreage harvested for beans is expected to total 282 thousand acres, up 11 percent from a year earlier and the largest acreage on record. Yields are expected to average a record high 49 bushels per acre, up 6 bushels from last year. U.S. soybean production is forecast at a record high 3.38 billion bushels, down 1 percent from the October forecast but up slightly from last year. Based on November 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 43.9 bushels per acre, down 0.5 bushel from last month and down 0.1 bushel from last year’s record high yield. Compared with last month, yields are forecast lower or unchanged in all major-producing states except Delaware, Michigan, Mississippi, North Carolina, Texas, and Wisconsin. The largest decreases in yield from last month are expected in Kansas, Nebraska, New Jersey, and South Dakota, down 2 bushels each. If realized, the forecasted yields in Illinois, Louisiana, New York, Wisconsin will be record highs and the forecasted yields in Michigan and North Dakota will tie the previous record high. Area for harvest in the U.S. is forecast at 76.8 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast but up 1 percent from 2009. New York grain corn production is forecast at 88.5 million bushels, up 11 percent from last year's output. Production is up from last year due to a record high yield, despite a decrease in harvested acreage. Acreage for harvest is expected to total 590 thousand acres, down 1 percent from a year earlier. Yields are expected to average a record high 150 bushels per acre, 16 bushels higher than last year. U.S. corn production is forecast at 12.5 billion bushels, down 1 percent from the October forecast and down 4 percent from last year’s record production of 13.1 billion bushels. As of November 1, yields are expected to average 154.3 bushels per acre, down 1.5 bushels from the previous month and 10.4 bushels below last year’s record of 164.7 bushels. Forecasted yields decreased from last month throughout much of the Corn Belt, with the biggest decline in Missouri, down 7 bushels per acre. The expected yield in South Dakota declined 5 bushels from last month while the Nebraska yield dropped 4 bushels per acre. Record high yields are forecast in California, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, North Dakota, and Wisconsin. Acreage, Yield and Production of Crops, New York and United States Acres for Yield per Planted acres harvest acre Production Crop Unit 2009 2010 2009 2010 2009 2010 2009 2010 1,000 acres 1,000 acres Units 1,000 units New York Corn for grain bu. 1,070 1,050 595 590 134.0 150.0 79,730 88,500 Wheat, winter Bu. 115 110 105 100 65.0 67.0 6,825 6,700 Oats bu. 90 80 60 58 77.0 67.0 4,620 3,886 Barley bu. 12 12 10 10 53.0 55.0 530 550 Soybeans bu. 255 285 254 282 43.0 49.0 10,922 13,818 Beans, dry 1/ lbs. 16.0 15.0 15.6 14.5 1,240 2,100 193 305 Potatoes, fall cwt. 17.1 16.2 16.5 16.1 300 315 4,950 5,072 Hay, alfalfa ton - 350 380 2.30 2.40 805 912 Hay, other ton - 1,010 900 1.65 1.40 1,667 1,260 Apples th. lbs. - - - 1,380 1,200 Grapes ton - - - 133 170 Pears ton - - - 11.2 9.0 Peaches ton - - - 6.5 6.2 United States Corn for grain bu. 86,482 88,222 79,590 81,263 164.7 154.31 3,110,062 12,539,646 Wheat, winter bu. 43,346 37,335 34,510 31,749 44.2 46.8 1,524,608 1,485,236 Oats bu. 3,404 3,138 1,379 1,263 67.5 64.3 93,081 81,190 Barley bu. 3,567 2,872 3,113 2,465 73.0 73.1 227,323 180,268 Soybeans bu. 77,451 77,714 76,372 76,823 44.0 43.9 3,359,011 3,375,067 Beans, dry 1/ lbs.1,537.5 1,900.01,463.01,829.3 1,733 1,783 25,360 32,615 Potatoes, summer cwt. 43.2 38.3 41.7 37.1 343.0 317.0 14,321 11,779 Potatoes, fall cwt. 936.7 893.0 917.2 882.5 429 410 393,544 361,392 Hay, alfalfa ton - 21,227 20,732 3.35 3.44 71,030 71,326 Hay, other ton - 38,528 38,924 1.98 2.08 76,412 80,952 Apples th. lbs. - - - 9,914.9 9,413.5 Grapes ton - - - 7,294.8 6,875.4 Pears ton - - - 957.2 854.8 Peaches ton - - - 1,103.8 1,126.0 1/ Production in 100 lb. bags (cleaned basis). NEAR RECORD HIGH POTATO YIELD FORECAST FOR NEW YORK Production of fall potatoes in New York in 2010 is estimated at 5.07 million hundredweight (cwt.), up 2 percent from a year ago. Yields are expected to average 315 cwt. per acre, which is the second highest yield on record behind the 320 cwt. set in 2008. Acreage for harvest is estimated at a record low 16.1 thousand acres, down 2 percent from last year. U.S. production of fall potatoes for 2010 is forecast at 361 million cwt., down 8 percent from 2009. Area harvested, at 882,500 acres, is slightly above the July forecast. The average yield forecast, at 410 cwt. per acre, is down 19 cwt. from last year’s record high yield. Farm Real Estate: Average Value per Acre, Selected States and United States, January 1, 2006-2010 State 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Dollars New York 2,020 2,180 2,350 2,400 2,400 Massachusetts 11,700 11,900 12,300 12,000 11,600 New Hampshire 4,240 4,800 4,900 4,800 4,750 New Jersey 14,400 15,700 15,300 13,800 13,100 Pennsylvania 4,380 4,970 5,120 5,100 5,000 Vermont 2,480 2,740 2,900 2,800 2,750 48 States 1,830 2,010 2,170 2,110 2,140 Additional details available at www.nass.usda.gov in the complete "Land Values and Cash Rents" report released on August 4, 2010. Cash Rent Per Acre: Selected States, 2008-2010 Cropland Rented for Cash Pasture Rented for Cash State 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010 Dollars New York 41.50 44.00 43.50 1/ 1/ 1/ Pennsylvania 55.00 55.00 56.50 32.00 32.00 25.00 New Jersey 52.50 55.00 55.00 1/ 1/ 1/ 48 States 85.50 99.00 102.00 10.50 11.00 11.00 1/ Insufficient data to publish. OCTOBER MILK PRICES INCREASED FROM SEPTEMBER Prices received by New York producers for milk sold during October were up from a month earlier. The price of corn, hay, oats, and apples increased also. The price of potatoes decreased. Many previous month prices were revised due to more complete sales information. Grain corn, at $5.38 per bushel, was up 62 cents from September and increased 86 cents from last year. Hay averaged $104.00 per ton, up $3 from September but down $11 from October 2009. Potatoes averaged $13.60 per cwt, down 70 cents from September but up $1.10 from last year. Oats, at $2.26 per bushel, were up 54 cents from September. Apples averaged $29.20 per cwt, up $1 from September and up $3.20 from last year. Dairy farmers in the Empire State received an average of $19.20 per hundredweight of milk sold during October, up 60 cents from September and $4.20 more than October a year ago. The preliminary All Farm Products Index of Prices Received by Farmers in October, at 160 percent, based on 1990-1992=100, increased 12 points (8.1 percent) from September. The Crop Index is up 17 points (11 percent) but the Livestock Index decreased 1 point (0.7 percent). Producers received higher prices for corn, soybeans, eggs, and milk and lower prices for hogs, broilers, cattle, and potatoes. In addition to prices, the overall index is also affected by the seasonal change based on a 3-year average mix of commodities producers sell. Increased monthly marketings of soybeans, corn, grain sorghum, and cotton offset decreased marketings of wheat, milk, sweet corn, and grapes. Prices Received by Farmers 1/ New York United States Oct. Sep. Oct. Oct. Sep. Oct. Commodity Unit 2009 2010 2010 2009 2010 2010 Dollars Dollars Corn bu. 4.52 4.76 5.38 3.61 4.08 4.78 Oats bu. - 1.72 2.26 2.03 2.29 2.35 Wheat bu. - - - 4.47 5.83 6.08 Barley bu. - - - 4.41 3.62 3.69 Soybeans bu. - - - 9.43 9.98 10.70 Hay, baled ton 115.00 101.00 104.00 105.00 111.00 113.00 Potatoes cwt. 12.50 14.30 13.60 7.11 7.35 6.97 Apples, fresh market 2/ cwt. 26.00 28.20 29.20 31.20 34.90 34.90 Milk, wholesale cwt. 15.00 18.60 19.20 14.30 17.70 18.30 Milk cows 3/ head 1,200.00 - 1,300.00 1,240.00 - 1,313.00 Eggs, table market doz. - - - 0.638 0.446 0.654 Slaughter cows cwt. 39.90 50.20 4/ 43.60 55.40 53.00 Steers and heifers cwt. 72.80 77.70 4/ 84.40 99.30 97.90 All slaughter cattle cwt. 44.30 53.70 4/ 79.20 94.20 92.40 Calves cwt. 79.20 61.10 4/ 103.00 117.00 118.00 Hogs cwt. 41.40 55.70 4/ 37.80 61.20 57.00 Lambs cwt. 82.60 120.00 4/ 96.80 135.00 4/ Index (1990-92=100) Prices received 134 148 160 Prices paid 177 183 185 Ratio prices received to prices paid 76 81 86 1/ Mid-month price for current month. Average price for entire month shown for previous periods. 2/ New York price is equivalent packinghouse door. 3/ Milk cow prices published quarterly. 4/ Price available next month. Commercial Livestock Slaughter, September 1/ Number Slaughtered Total Live Weight Species New York United States New York United States 2009 2010 2009 2010 2009 2010 2009 2010 1,000 head 1,000 head Million Million pounds pounds Cattle 2.9 2.8 2,814.7 2,898.2 3.4 3.3 3,676.9 3,723.6 Calves 9.0 9.6 81.3 71.2 .9 1.0 19.7 19.2 Hogs 2.8 3.0 9,939.8 9,344.9 .5 .5 2,679.9 2,524.5 Sheep & 3.1 3.7 225.2 204.0 .3 .3 29.3 26.2 Lambs 1/ Slaughter in federal and non-federal inspected plants. Excludes farm slaughter. OCTOBER MILK PRODUCTION DOWN New York dairy herds produced 1.05 billion pounds of milk during October. Milk cows declined while production per cow was up from the previous year resulting in a 4.7 percent increase in milk production compared to October 2009. The number of milk cows averaged 611,000 head, down 3,000 head from October of the previous year. Milk per cow averaged 1,725 pounds, up 85 pounds from the October 2009 rate. Milk production in the 23 major States during October totaled 14.8 billion pounds, up 3.3 percent from October 2009. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,767 pounds for October, 47 pounds above October 2009. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.37 million head, 52,000 head more than October 2009, but unchanged from September 2010. Dairy Briefs New York 23 Major States Item Unit Oct. Sep. Oct. Oct. Sep. Oct. 2009 2010 2010 2009 2010 2010 Milk Production Mil. lb. 1,007 1,036 1,054 14,306 14,472 14,784 Milk per cow Lb. 1,640 1,695 1,725 1,720 1,729 1,767 Thou. No. of milk cows hd. 614 611 611 8,316 8,368 8,368 Dairy Products Manufactured New York United States Item Unit Sep. Aug. Sep. Sep. Aug. Sep. 2009 2010 2010 2009 2010 2010 Butter Thou. lb. NA NA NA 94,690 101,660 110,467 American Cheese Thou. lb. NA NA NA 342,921 353,703 354,642 Mozzarella Cheese Thou. lb. 16,063 16,753 15,637 270,262 294,829 290,929 Yogurt, Plain and Thou. Flavored lb. NA NA NA 369,995 364,592 388,826 Ice Cream, Hard Thou. gal. 2,464 NA NA 74,304 75,791 74,040 NEW YORK EGG PRODUCTION DOWN 1 PERCENT IN SEPTEMBER Egg production on New York farms totaled 94 million eggs in September 2010, down 1 percent from last year. The number of hens and pullets of laying age, at 3.95 million, decreased 1 percent from September 2010 but the rate of lay increased slightly percent to 2,380 eggs per 100 layers. U.S. egg production totaled 7.48 billion during September 2010, up 1 percent from last year. Production included 6.43 billion table eggs, and 1.05 billion hatching eggs, of which 980 million were broiler-type and 70 million were egg-type. Eggs in incubators totaled 39.4 million on October 1, 2010, up 8 percent from a year ago. Poultry Briefs Sep. Aug. Sep. Sep. Aug. Sep. Item Unit 2009 2010 2010 2009 2010 2010 New York United States Number of layers Thou. 4,006 3,951 3,949 333,885 338,980 337,409 Eggs per 100 layers No. 2,371 2,480 2,380 2,209 2,283 2,218 Eggs produced Mil. 95 98 94 7,376 7,739 7,483 North and South Atlantic United States States Chicks hatched, egg-type Thou. 2/ 2/ 2/ 40,515 37,023 40,307 Chicks hatched, broiler type Thou. 2/ 2/ 2/ 742,769 798,529 761,473 Chicken eggs in incubators 1/ Egg-type Thou. 8,455 9,305 10,281 36,511 37,513 39,427 Broiler-type Thou. 229,755 248,362 240,926 587,958 639,413 621,428 1/ First day of following month. 2/ Data not published to avoid disclosing individual operations. This report, in addition to many others, is available free of charge at our website at www.nass.usda.gov/ny/ The USDA, NASS New York Field Office thanks the agricultural businesses and farm operators who respond to our surveys. This complimentary report is being sent to those asking for the survey results during the survey interview.