Released: July 2003

Monthly

No. 973-7-03

www.nass.usda.gov/ny

Oat production is expected to total 4.10 million bushels, up 13 percent from 2002. Yields are forecast at 63 bushels per acre, down 3 bushels from a year ago. Winter wheat production is forecast at 7.14 million bushels, down 4 percent from the 7.42 million bushels produced in 2002. Yields are forecast at 60 bushels per acre, up 2 bushels from last year. The first yield and production forecast for corn, soybeans, dry beans, and hay will be released on August 12.

U.S. corn acreage planted for all purposes is estimated at 79.1 million acres, virtually unchanged from last year. Growers expect to harvest 72.0 million acres for grain, up 4 percent from 2002. Soybean plantings for the nation are estimated at 73.7 million acres, down 105,000 acres from last year. Area for harvest is estimated at 72.7 million acres, up 1 percent from 2002. Planted acreage is up 471,000 acres from March intentions. Oats to be harvested for grain are expected to total 2.29 million acres, up 9 percent from last year. Oat production for 2002 is forecast at 148 million bushels, 24 percent above last year. The estimated yield is 64.7 bushels per acre, up 7.9 bushels from 2002.

The nation's winter wheat production is forecast at 1.72 billion bushels, 50 percent above last year. ` Area for grain harvest is forecast at 36.5 million acres, up 23 percent from 2002. Yields are expected to average 47.0 bushels per acre, up 8.5 bushels from a year ago. U.S. producers expect to harvest 64.4 million acres for dry hay in 2003, slightly below 2002. Alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures are expected to total 23.5 million acres, up 2 percent from last year. All other hay is estimated at 40.8 million acres, down 1 percent from a year earlier. Dry bean harvested acreage is expected from 1.44 million acres, 17 percent below last year.

New York's peach crop is forecast at 12.5 million pounds, up 25 percent from the 10.0 million pounds produced last year. U.S. peach production, excluding California Clingstones that are mostly canned, is expected to total 1.47 billion pounds, 1 percent more than last year but dropped less than 1 percent from 2001.

U.S. area planted to fall potatoes this year is estimated at 1.11 million acres, down 3 percent from last year but 2 percent above two years ago. Harvest is expected from 1.09 million acres, down 2 percent from a year ago but 2 percent above 2001.

Breeding inventory, at 5.94 million head, was down 4 percent from June 1, 2002, and slightly below last quarter. Market hog inventory, at 52.8 million head, was 2 percent below last year and 1 percent above last quarter.

The March-May 2003 U.S. pig crop, at 25.1 million head, was 3 percent less than 2002, and 2 percent less than 2001. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 2.82 million head, 4 percent below last year. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 47 percent of the breeding herd. The average pigs per litter was 8.88 pigs saved per litter for the March-May 2003 period, compared to 8.82 last year. Pigs saved per litter by size of operation ranged from 7.60 for operations with 1-99 hogs to 9.00 for operations with more than 5,000 hogs and pigs.

U.S. hog producers intend to have 2.83 million sows farrow during the June-August 2003 quarter, 2 percent below the actual farrowings during the same period in both 2002 and 2001. Intended farrowings for September-November 2003, at 2.79 million sows, are 1 percent below the same period in 2002, and 3 percent below 2001.

Grain corn averaged $2.90 per bushel, down 2 cents from May and 37 cents above June 2002. Oats brought $2.37 per bushel, up 12 cents from a month earlier and 44 cents above a year ago. Wheat, at $3.06 per bushel, was down 21 cents from the previous month and 19 cents below June a year ago. Barley prices averaged $2.64 per bushel, up 14 cents from May. Soybeans returned $6.12 per bushel, 16 cents below May but $1.65 more than a year earlier. Hay averaged $129.00 per ton baled, up $19.00 from the previous month and $17.00 above June 2002. Fresh market apple prices at the packinghouse door averaged $34.60 per hundredweight (cwt.) during June, up $5.30 from May and $13.10 above June 2002.

Empire State dairy farmers received an average of $11.80 per cwt. of milk sold during June, unchanged from May and 70 cents below June a year ago. Poultry producers received an average of 55.0 cents per dozen eggs sold, up 7.0 cents from May and 4.6 cents above June 2002.

At the National level, the preliminary All Farm Products Index of Prices Received in June is 106, based on 1990-92=100, unchanged from the May Index. Since last month, all commodity group indexes are unchanged or lower except for the fruits and nuts, meat animals, and poultry and eggs commodity groups. Lower prices for cantaloupes, onions, peaches, and strawberries offset higher prices for tomatoes, broilers, hogs, and eggs. The seasonal change in the mix of commodities farmers sell, based on the past 3-year average, also affects the overall index. Increased average marketings of wheat, grapes, hay, and cantaloupes offset decreased marketings of oranges, tomatoes, strawberries, and sweet corn. The preliminary All Farm Products Index is up 8 points from June 2002.

New York dairy herds produced 1.02 billion pounds of milk during June, down 3 percent from the June 2002 level. The decrease was the result of fewer cows milked and a lower rate per cow. The number of milk cows totaled 681,000 head, down 1,000 head from June of the previous year and last month. Milk per cow averaged 1,490 pounds, 40 pounds less than June 2002.

Milk production in the 20 major states during June totaled 12.3 billion pounds, down 0.1 percent from production in these same states during June 2002. Production per cow averaged 1,587 pounds for June, unchanged from June 2002. The number of cows on farms in the 20 major states was 7.77 million head, 10,000 head less than June 2002.

Egg production on New York farms, totaled 91 million eggs in May 2003, unchanged from the same month a year earlier. Fewer layers was offset by a higher rate of lay. The number of hens and pullets of laying age, at 3.67 million, was down 5 percent from May 2002, while the rate of lay was up 5 percent to 24.78 eggs per layer.

Laying flocks in the United States produced 7.27 billion eggs during May 2003, down slightly from the previous May. An indication of future egg supply, chicks hatched in the U.S. during May for the purpose of egg production totaled 38.2 million, down 1 percent from May 2002. Eggs in incubators on June 1, 2003 totaled 33.7 million, up 4 percent from previous year.