E-mail: nass-ny@nass.usda.gov (518) 457-5570 NEW YORK CROP AND LIVESTOCK REPORT August 2009 Monthly No. 973-8-09 NEW YORK CROP PROSPECTS - AUGUST 1 New York grain corn production is forecast at 82.5 million bushels, down 10 percent from last year. Area for harvest is expected to total 630 thousand acres, 2 percent below a year ago. Yield is forecast at 131 bushels per acre, down 13 bushels from last year’s record high. The crop was developing slowly due to cool temperatures and lack of sunshine. New York production of alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures, at 1.01 million tons, is 7 percent above 2008. Other dry hay production is expected to total 1.91 million tons, up 9 percent from a year ago. Due to the wet summer, yields were lower than expected. Oat production, expected to total 4.03 million bushels, is 5 percent below a year ago. Soybean production in the Empire State is estimated at a record high 10.3 million bushels, down slightly from last year’s 10.4 million bushels. U.S. CORN PRODUCTION AND SOYBEAN PRODUCTION UP Corn production is forecast at 12.8 billion bushels, up 5 percent from last year but 2 percent lower than 2007. Based on conditions as of August 1, yields are expected to average 159.5 bushels per acre, up 5.6 bushels from last year. If realized, this yield would be the second highest on record, behind 2004, and production would be the second largest, behind 2007. Forecasted yields are higher than last year across the central Great Plains and western corn belt where mild temperatures and adequate soil moisture supplies provided favorable growing conditions. Expected yields were also higher across much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and Atlantic Coast where beneficial moisture this year contrasted with exceptionally dry conditions last year. Growers expect to harvest 80.0 million acres for grain, down 100,000 acres from June but up 2 percent from last year. Soybean production is forecast at .320 billion bushels, up 8 percent from last year. Based on August 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 41.7 bushels per acre, up 2.1 bushels from 2008. If realized, this will tie for the fourth highest yield on record. With the exception of Illinois, yields are forecast higher or unchanged from last year across the Corn Belt and Great Plains. The largest increase in yield is expected in Ohio, up 11 bushels from 2008. In contrast, yield prospects are forecast lower than last year in Alabama, New York, North Carolina, and South Carolina. Area for harvest in the U.S. is forecast at 76.8 million acres, up slightly from June and up 3 percent from 2008. Acreage, Yield and Production of Crops, New York and United States Acres for Yield per Crop Unit Planted acres harvest acre Production 2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009 1,000 acres 1,000 acres Units 1,000 units New York Corn for grain bu. 1,090 1,110 640 630 144 131 92,160 82,530 Soybeans bu. 230 255 226 252 46.0 41.0 10,396 10,332 Wheat, winter bu. 130 115 122 110 63.0 62.0 7,686 6,820 Oats lbs. 80 85 64 64 66.0 63.0 4,224 4,032 Beans, dry 1/ lbs. 17.0 17.0 16.8 16.41,9301,250 324 205 Potatoes, 18.0 17.1 17.8 16.5 320 2/ 5,696 2/ fall cwt. Hay, alfalfa ton - - 350 420 2.70 2.40 945 1,008 Hay, other ton - - 970 1,060 1.80 1.80 1,746 1,908 mil. Apples lbs. 1,250 1,20 Grapes ton 172.0 140.0 Pears ton 10.3 12.5 Peaches ton 5.5 6.5 United States Corn for grain bu. 85,982 87,035 78,640 80,007153.9159.5 12,101,23812,760,986 Soybeans bu. 75,718 77,483 74,641 76,767 39.6 41.7 2,959,174 3,199,172 Wheat, winter bu. 46,281 43,448 39,614 34,787 47.2 44.2 1,867,903 1,537,348 Oats bu. 3,217 3,158 1,395 1,426 63.5 64.5 88,635 91,960 Barley bu. 4,234 3,627 3,767 3,142 63.6 65.8 239,498 206,728 Beans, dry 1/ lbs.1,495.01,481.1 1,445.21,392.01,7681,750 25,558 24,359 Potatoes, summer cwt. 47.0 44.0 44.8 42.5 306 341 13,694 14,506 Potatoes, cwt. fall lbs. 930.5 932.9 921.1 922.7 409 2/ 376,386 2/ Hay, alfalfa ton - - 20,980 20,982 3.32 3.48 69,620 72,986 Hay, other ton - - 39,082 39,195 1.95 2.01 76,052 78,955 Apples 9,769.3 10,113.0 Grapes 7,303.3 7,029.0 Pears 870.9 935.3 Peaches 1,133.3 1,078.3 1/ Production in 100 lb. bags (cleaned basis). 2/ First forecast released November 9. DRY BEANS: Planted Acreage by Classes, New York and United States, 2007-2009 New York United States Class 2007 2008 2009 2007 2008 2009 1,000 acres 1,000 acres Light Red Kidney 7.5 7.2 6.3 47.4 56.3 56.0 Dark Red Kidney 1.5 1.7 1.3 40.2 50.8 46.4 Black 7.0 7.4 8.1 175.7 171.9 179.4 All Other 1.0 0.7 1.3 1,263.6 1,216.0 1,199.3 TOTAL 17.0 17.0 17.0 1,526.9 1,495.0 1,481.1 Hired Workers on Farms and Wage Rates Northeast I 1/ United States Item July Apr. July July Apr. July 6-12, 12-18, 12-18, 6-12, 12-18, 12-18, 2008 2009 2009 2008 2009 2/ 2009 1,000 workers All hired workers 37 32 37 828 680 875 Worked 150 days or more 24 26 24 585 554 611 Worked less than 150 days 13 6 13 243 126 264 Hours worked per week All hired workers 38.0 41.1 38.5 40.5 40.1 39.8 Dollars per hour Field workers 9.68 10.65 10.32 9.66 9.99 10.04 Livestock workers 9.89 9.92 9.86 9.98 10.25 10.03 Field and livestock workers 9.75 10.35 10.15 9.74 10.07 10.04 All hired workers 10.50 11.17 10.92 10.34 10.84 10.64 1/ New York and New England States (CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, VT) are combined into Northeast I region. 2/ Revised. JULY 1 CATTLE INVENTORY DOWN 1 PERCENT All cattle and calves in the United States as of July 1, 2009, totaled 101.8 million head, 1 percent below the 103.3 million on July 1, 2009, and down 2 percent from the 104.3 million two years ago. All cows and heifers that have calved, at 41.4 million, was down slightly from both July 1, 2008 and July 1, 2007. Beef cows, at 32.2 million, were down 1 percent from July 1, 2008 and 3 percent below two years ago. Milk cows, at 9.2 million, were down 2 percent from July 1, 2008 but 1 percent above two years ago. All sheep and lamb inventory in the United States on July 1, 2009 totaled 7.05 million head, down 3 percent from July 1, 2008, and 6 percent below July 1, 2007. Breeding sheep inventory at 4.28 million head on July 1, 2009 was down 3 percent from July 1, 2008. Market sheep and lambs (including newborn lambs), at 2.77 million head, were down 3 percent from last July. CATTLE, SHEEP AND GOATS ON FARMS United States, July 1, 2007-2009 United States Class 2007 2008 2009 1,000 head Cattle and Calves 104,300 103,300 101,800 Cows that have 42,300 42,000 41,400 calved Beef cows 33,150 32,650 32,200 Milk cows 9,150 9,350 9,200 Heifers 500 lbs. 16,500 16,300 16,100 and over For beef cow 4,700 4,600 4,500 replacement For milk cow 3,900 3,900 3,900 replacement Other heifers 7,900 7,800 7,700 Steers 500 lbs. and 14,900 14,700 14,400 over Bulls 500 lbs. and 2,100 2,100 2,100 over Calves under 500 28,500 28,200 27,800 pounds Calf crop 36,759 41,401 35,600 All sheep and lambs 7,530 7,270 7,050 All breeding sheep 4,515 4,400 4,280 Ewes 1 year and 3,700 3,590 3,470 older Rams 1 year and 180 180 180 older Replacement 635 630 630 lambs Market sheep and 3,015 2,870 2,770 lambs JULY MILK PRICES UNCHANGED FROM JUNE Prices received by New York producers for milk sold during July were unchanged from a month earlier. The price of corn, oats, and winter wheat decreased. The price of hay and eggs increased. Many previous month prices were revised due to more complete sales information. Grain corn, at $3.60 per bushel, was down 69 cents from June and decreased $2.71 from last year. Hay averaged $136.00 per ton, up $13.00 from June but down $32.00 from July 2008. The price of oats, at $2.66 per bushel, was down 9 cents from last month. Winter Wheat, at $4.59 per bushel, was down 32 cents from June and decreased $2.75 from July 2008. Dairy farmers in the Empire State received an average of $11.60 per hundredweight of milk sold during July, unchanged from June and $8.40 less than July a year ago. Poultry producers received an average of 52 cents per dozen eggs sold, up 10.8 cents from June but 12.7 cents lower than last year. The preliminary All Farm Products Index of Prices Received by Farmers in July, at 130 percent, based on 1990-92=100, decreased 4 points (3.0 percent) from June. The Crop Index is down 12 points (7.5 percent) but the Livestock Index was unchanged. Producers received higher prices for eggs, cattle, sweet corn, and snap beans and lower prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, and tomatoes. In addition to prices, the overall index is also affected by the seasonal change based on a 3-year average mix of commodities producers sell. Increased monthly marketings of grapes, wheat, hay, and tomatoes offset decreased marketings of milk, cantaloups, potatoes, and strawberries. Prices Received by Farmers 1/ New York United States Commodity Unit July June July July June July 2008 2009 2009 2008 2009 2009 Dollars Dollars Corn bu. 6.31 4.29 3.60 5.25 4.03 3.33 Oats bu. - 2.75 2.66 3.44 2.44 2.20 Wheat bu. 7.34 4.91 4.59 7.15 5.67 4.92 Barley bu. - - - 5.12 4.59 4.79 Soybeans bu. - 11.00 - 13.30 11.40 10.30 Hay, baled ton 168.00123.00 136.00 164.00123.00 116.00 Potatoes cwt. - -- - 12.33 9.48 9.80 Apples, fresh market 2/ cwt. - 23.80 - 44.60 18.10 17.80 Milk, wholesale cwt. 20.00 11.60 11.60 19.30 11.30 11.30 Milk cows 3/ head 1,900.00 - 1,300.00 1,980.00 - 1,280.00 Eggs, table market doz. 0.647 0.412 0.52 0.677 0.386 0.519 Slaughter cows cwt. 58.80 46.80 4/ 56.50 45.70 48.30 Steers and heifers cwt. 91.80 76.70 4/ 99.60 85.00 85.70 All slaughter cattle cwt. 65.30 51.10 4/ 95.00 80.40 81.40 Calves cwt. 59.10 52.80 4/ 114.00110.00 109.00 Hogs cwt. 47.60 46.80 4/ 54.30 43.30 43.40 Lambs cwt. 92.00119.00 4/ 103.00104.00 4/ Index (1990-92=100) Prices received 159 134 130 Prices paid 191 177 176 Ratio prices received to prices paid 83 76 74 1/ Mid-month price for current month. Average price for entire month shown for previous periods. 2/ New York price is equivalent packinghouse door. 3/ Milk cow prices published quarterly. 4/ Price available next month. Commercial Livestock Slaughter, June 1/ Number Slaughtered Total Live Weight Species New York United States New York United States 2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009 1,000 head 1,000 head Million pounds Million pounds Cattle 2.2 2.6 2,956.6 2,981.0 2.7 3.0 3,718.1 3,772.1 Calves 17.2 10.5 75.3 77.2 2.0 1.1 19.8 19.2 Hogs 2.8 2.4 8,883.1 9,180.9 .5 .5 2,358.6 2,470.3 Sheep and lambs 2.5 2.8 192.4 203.0 .2 .3 26.2 27.7 1/ Slaughter in federal and non-federal inspected plants. Excludes farm slaughter. JULY MILK PRODUCTION INCREASED New York dairy herds produced 1.09 billion pounds of milk during July. Milk cows declined while production per cow increased from the previous year resulting in a 2.6 percent increase in milk production compared to July 2008. The number of milk cows averaged 622,000 head, down 4,000 head from July of the previous year. Milk per cow averaged 1,745 pounds up 55 pounds from the July 2008 rate. Milk production in the 23 major States during July totaled 14.9 billion pounds, up 0.1 percent from July 2008. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,769 pounds for July, 25 pounds above July 2008. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.40 million head, 115,000 head less than July 2008, and 34,000 head less than June 2009. Dairy Briefs New York 23 Major States Item Unit July June July July June July 2008 2009 2009 2008 2009 2009 Milk Production Mil. lb. 1,058 1,084 1,085 14,848 14,775 14,858 Milk per cow Lb. 1,690 1,740 1,745 1,744 1,752 1,769 Thou. No. of milk cows hd. 626 623 622 8,515 8,434 8,400 Dairy Products Manufactured New York United States Item Unit June May June June May June 2008 2009 2009 2008 2009 2009 Thou. Butter lb. N/A N/A N/A 116,713 139,373 125,469 Thou. American cheese lb. N/A N/A N/A 336,745 386,464 353,006 Thou. Mozzarella cheese lb. 16,510 17,421 17,478 262,443 273,405 269,030 Yogurt, plain and Thou. flavored lb. 18,533 22,785 20,294 297,939 325,561 334,483 Thou. Ice cream, hard gal. 2,761 3,182 2,619 91,952 80,636 89,578 NEW YORK EGG PRODUCTION UP 4 PERCENT IN JUNE Egg production on New York farms totaled 94 million eggs in June 2008, up 4 percent from last year. The number of hens and pullets of laying age, at 3.96 million, increased 4 percent from June 2007 and the rate of lay increased slightly to 2,374 eggs per 100 layers. U.S. egg production totaled 7.37 billion during June 2008, down slightly from last year. Production included 6.27 billion table eggs, and 1.10 billion hatching eggs, of which 1.03 billion were broiler-type and 64 million were egg-type. The total number of layers during June 2008 averaged 339 million, down slightly from last year. Poultry Briefs Item Unit June May June June May June 2008 2009 2009 2008 2009 2009 New York United States Number of layers Thou. 3,960 4,050 4,058 338,664 336,695 333,197 Eggs per 100 layers No. 2,374 2,519 2,402 2,175 2,256 2,204 Eggs produced Mil. 94 102 97 7,367 7,597 7,343 North and South Atlantic United States States Chicks hatched, egg-type Thou. 2/ 2/ 2/ 40,928 37,774 43,453 Chicks hatched, broiler type Thou. 2/ 2/ 2/ 805,793 786,471 770,970 Chicken eggs in incubators 1/ Egg-type Thou. 8,460 9,471 8,586 33,455 36,360 32,353 Broiler-type Thou. 253,906 244,191 243,344 655,708 634,425 631,336 1/ First day of following month. 2/ Data not published to avoid disclosing individual operations. This report, in addition to many others, is available free of charge At our website at www.nass.usda.gov/ny/ The USDA, NASS New York Field Office thanks the agricultural businesses and farm operators who respond to our surveys. This complimentary report is being sent to those asking for the survey results during the survey interview.