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NEW YORK CROP

AND LIVESTOCK REPORT

Released:  September 2005
Monthly
No. 973-9-05

NEW YORK CORN, SOYBEAN PRODUCTION DOWN

Based on conditions as of September 1, New York grain corn production is now expected to total 53.2 million bushels, down 13 percent from the 61.0 million bushels produced in 2004. Acreage for harvest is estimated at 455,000 acres, 9 percent less than the 500,000 acres harvested for grain last year. Yields are expected to average 117 bushels per acre, down 3 bushels from the August forecast, and 5 bushels below the 2004 forecast. US grain corn production is forecast at 10.6 billion bushels, up 3 percent from last month but 10 percent below 2004.  If realized, this would be the second largest crop on record.  Based on conditions as of September 1, yields are expected to average 143.2 bushels per acre, up 4.0 bushels from August but 17.2 bushels below the record high last year.  Forecast yields are down from the previous year in all Corn Belt States except Michigan and Wisconsin.  Compared with last year, the largest yield decreases are expected in Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky, and New Jersey.  Farmers expect to harvest 74.3 million acres of corn for grain, down 50,000 acres from August but up 1 percent from 2004.

Soybean production in the Empire State is now forecast at 6.70 million bushels, down slightly from the 6.71 million bushels produced in 2004 production. Acreage for harvest is expected to total 197,000 acres, unchanged from the August forecast and 15 percent above the acreage harvested in 2004. Harvested acreage is also a record high in New York. Yields are expected to average 34 bushels per acre, down 2 bushels from August and 5 bushels down from a year earlier. US Soybean production is forecast at 2.86 billion bushels, up 2 percent from the August forecast but down 9 percent from the record crop of 2004.  Based on September 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 39.6 bushels per acre, up 0.9 bushel from August.  Adequate moisture across most of the Corn Belt and the Great Plains by the end of the month was a relief for many dry areas, including most of the drought-stricken areas of Illinois and Missouri.  The Delta and Southeast also received favorable moisture, maintaining good yield potential in most areas, including a record high forecast in Louisiana and a record tying forecast in South Carolina.

  Acreage, Yield and Production of Crops, New York and United States

Crop

Unit

Acres for harvest

Yield per acre

Production

2004

2005

2004

2005

2004

2005

   

1,000 acres

Units

1,000 units

New York

             

Corn for grain

 bu.

500

455

122.0

117.0

61,000

53,235

Wheat, winter 1/

 bu.

100

115

53.0

51.0

5,300

5,865

Oats 1/

 bu.

50

80

65.0

60.0

3,250

4,800

Barley

 bu.

10

4/

53.0

4/

530

4/

Soybeans

 bu.

172

197

39.0

34.0

6,708

6,698

Beans, dry 1/ 2/

 Lbs.

23.5

24.5

1,050

1,500

247

368

Potatoes, fall

 cwt.

19.2

20.1

270

3/

5,184

3/

Apples 1/

 mil.  bs.

-

-

-

-

1,280

1,150

Grapes 1/

 ton

-

-

-

-

142.0

160.0

Pears 1/

 ton

-

-

-

-

16.5

13.0

               

United States

             

Corn for grain

 bu.

73,632

74,318

160.4

143.2

11,807,217

10,638,661

Wheat, winter 1/

 bu.

34,462

34,271

43.5

44.4

1,499,434

1,520,848

Oats 1/

 bu.

1,792

1,976

64.7

64.7

115,935

127,819

Barley

 bu.

4,021

3,471

69.4

68.2

279,253

236,729

Soybeans

 bu.

73,958

72,184

42.5

39.6

3,140,996

2,856,449

Beans, dry 1/ 2/

 lbs.

1,219.3

1,530.8

1,460

1,687

17,799

25,829

Potatoes, summer

 cwt.

53.9

48.3

340.0

334.0

18,307

16,123

Potatoes, fall

 cwt.

1,022.3

955.7

401.0

3/

410,253

3/

Apples 1/

 mil. lbs.

-

-

-

-

10,419.9

9,837.1

Grapes 1/

 ton

-

-

-

-

6,231.7

6,800.9

Pears 1/

 ton

-

-

-

-

890.2

852.9

               

1/  Production forecast as of August 1.
2
/  Production in 100 lb. bags (cleaned basis).
3
/  First forecast released November 12.
4
/  Estimate released September 30. 


 2005 TURKEY OUTPUT IN NEW YORK EXPECTED TO INCREASE 

New York turkey producers expect to raise an estimated 630,000 turkeys during 2005, according to USDA’S National Agricultural Statistics Service, New York office. This total will be 9 percent above the 580,000 birds raised in 2004.

 The preliminary estimate of turkeys raised in the United States during 2005 is 256 million, down 3 percent from the number raised in 2004. 

Minnesota expects to be the number one producing state with 44.5 million turkeys, down 2 percent from last year. North Carolina ranks second with 36.0 million, down 8 percent from 2004. Arkansas is in third place by producing 29.0 million birds, 2 percent more than a year ago. Virginia growers expect to produce 21.0 million birds in 2005, up 7 percent from 2004. Missouri at 20.5 million birds is down 5 percent from 2004. California expects to raise 15.1 million turkeys, 4 percent less than a year earlier.

  CATTLE AND CALVES:  Number of cattle operations, by herd size,
New York, 2002-2004

Year

Herd Size

1-49

50-99

100-499

500 plus

Total

 

Number of operations

2002

8,500

2,800

3,820

380

15,500

2003

8,200

3,000

3,900

400

15,500

2004

8,100

2,900

3,900

400

15,300

CATTLE AND CALVES:  Percent of inventory, by herd size,
 New York, 2002-2004

Year

Herd size

1-49

50-99

100-499

500 plus

 

Percent

2002

10.0

15.0

48.0

27.0

2003

11.0

15.0

46.0

28.0

2004

10.0

15.0

45.0

30.0

  MILK COWS:  Number of milk cow operations, by herd size,
 New York, 2002-2004

Year

Number of milk cows in herd

1-29

30-49

50-99

100-199

200 plus

Total

 

Number of operations

2002

1,300

1,300

2,800

1,200

600

 7,200

2003

1,400

1,300

2,700

1,100

600

 7,100

2004

1,400

1,300

2,600

1,000

600

6,900

  MILK COWS:  Percent of inventory, by herd size,
 New York, 2002-2004

Year

1-29

30-49

50-99

100-199

200 plus

 

Percent

2002

2.0

 7.5

28.0

24.0

38.5

2003

2.0

 7.5

27.5

22.0

41.0

2004

2.0

 7.5

27.0

20.5

43.0

AUGUST PRICES DECREASE

Prices received by New York producers during August for selected commodities decreased from a month earlier. The price of wheat, hay, soybeans, milk and eggs decreased. The price of corn increased while the price of barley remained unchanged.  Many previous month prices were revised due to more complete sales information. 

Wheat averaged $3.32 per bushel, 1 cent less than July but 92 cents more than August 2004. Hay averaged $104.00 per ton, $8.00 less than July but $6.00 more than August a year ago.  Soybeans, at $6.75 per bushel, decreased 1 cent from July and $1.11 from last year.  Grain corn, at $2.50 per bushel, increased 27 cents from July but decreased 54 cents from a year ago.

 Dairy farmers in the Empire State received an average of $14.90 per hundredweight of milk sold during August, down 10 cents from July and $1.00 from August a year ago.   Poultry producers received an average of 29 cents per dozen eggs sold, up 6 cents from July but down 11 cents from August 2004.

The  preliminary  All  Farm  Products  Index  of  Prices  Received  by Farmers  in  August,  at  117,  based  on  1990-92=100,  decreased  1 point (0.8 percent) from July. The Crop Index is down 2 points (1.7 percent) while the Livestock Index decreased 1 point (0.8 percent). Producers  received  lower commodity  prices  for  corn,  soybeans, eggs,  and  sweet  corn.  Higher  prices  were  received  for  lettuce, peaches, strawberries,  and  turkeys. The  overall  index  is  also affected by the seasonal change based on a 3-year average mix of commodities  a  producer  sells.  Increased  average marketings  of cattle,  grapes,  sweet corn,  and  calves  offset  decreased  marketings of wheat, hay, milk, and broilers.

 Prices Received by Farmers 1/

                        Commodity

Unit

New York

United States

Aug
2004

Jul
2005

Aug
2005

Aug
2004

Jul
2005

Aug
2005

   

Dollars

Dollars

Corn

bu.

3.04

2.23

2.50

2.34

2.11

1.89

Oats

bu.

1.67

-

1.67

1.32

1.59

1.53

Wheat

bu.

2.40

3.33

3.32

3.27

3.20

3.21

Barley

bu.

1.90

1.92

1.92

2.77

2.38

2.75

Soybeans

bu.

7.86

6.76

6.75

6.83

6.65

6.09

Hay, baled

ton

98.00

112.00

104.00

92.20

99.70

99.70

Potatoes

cwt.

N/A

N/A

11.30

5.77

8.69

7.51

Apples, fresh market 2/

cwt.

N/A

N/A

N/A

26.80

15.30

20.20

Milk, wholesale

cwt.

15.90

15.00

14.90

14.90

14.80

14.70

Milk cows 3/

head

4/

1,700.00.00

4/

4/

1,830.00

4/

Eggs, table market

doz.

0.400

0.350

0.293

0.337

0.326

0.257

Slaughter cows

cwt.

51.00

48.10

4/

54.70

53.80

51.90

Steers and heifers

cwt.

73.40

70.80

4/

91.00

88.40

88.00

All slaughter cattle

cwt.

52.10

49.40

4/

87.70

85.30

84.70

Calves

cwt.

102.00

140.20

4/

131.00

132.00

131.00

Hogs

cwt.

51.90

43.70

4/

55.30

49.80

50.00

Lambs

cwt.

95.80

124.90

4/

97.90

109.00

4/

Index (1990-92=100)

             

Prices received

       

120

118

117

Prices paid

       

135

141

141

Ratio prices received to prices paid

       

89

84

83

           


 
1/     Mid-month price for current month.  Average price for entire month shown for previous periods.
 2/     New York price is equivalent packinghouse door.
 3/     Milk cow prices published quarterly.
 4
/     Price available next month.

 Commercial Livestock Slaughter, July 1/

Species

Number Slaughtered

Total Live Weight

New York

United States

New York

United States

2004

2005

2004

2005

2004

2005

2004

2005

 

1,000 head

1,000 head

Million pounds

Million pounds

Cattle

  3.5

  2.8

2,787.2

2,718.4

4.0

3.3

3,454.1

3,410.1

Calves

10.4

10.6

68.8

58.6

  .9

2.1

22.3

20.5

Hogs

  3.2

  2.6

8,095.8

7,662.0

  .7

  .6

2,123.5

2,026.0

Sheep and lambs

  2.2

  2.1

220.9

200.8

  .2

  .2

28.4

27.0

1/   Slaughter in federal and non-federal inspected plants.  Excludes farm slaughter.

 

AUGUST MILK PRODUCTION UP 5.5 PERCENT

New York dairy herds produced 1.035 billion pounds of milk during August.  The number of milk cows averaged 647,000 head, down 7,000 head from August of the previous year. Milk per cow averaged 1,600 pounds, up 100 pounds from the August 2004 rate.   

Milk production in the 23 major States during August totaled 13.6 billion pounds, up 4.6 percent from August 2004. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,665 pounds for August, 64 pounds above August 2004. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.15 million head, 52,000 head more than August 2004, and 9,000 head more than July 2005.

 Dairy Briefs

Item

Unit

New York

23 Major States

Aug
2004

Jul
2005

Aug
2005

Aug
2004

Jul
2005

Aug
2005

       

Milk Production

  Mil. lb.

981

1,035

1,035

12,970

13,692

13,573

Milk per cow

  Lb.

1,500

1,600

1,600

1,601

1,681

1,665

No. of milk cows

  Thou. hd.

654

647

647

8,102

8,145

8,154

       

 Dairy Products Manufactured

Item

Unit

New York

United States

Jul
2004

Jun
2005

Jul
 2005

Jul
2004

Jun
 2005

Jul
2005

       

Butter

  Thou. lb.

1,224

1,845

1,410

92,615