E-mail: nass-ny@nass.usda.gov (518) 457-5570 NEW YORK CROP AND LIVESTOCK REPORT September 2009 Monthly No. 973-9-09 NEW YORK SOYBEAN PRODUCTION UP Based on conditions as of September 1, New York grain corn production is now expected to total 83.8 million bushels, down 9 percent from the 92.2 million bushels produced in 2008. Acreage for harvest is estimated at 630,000 acres, 2 percent less than the 640,000 acres harvested for grain last year. Yields are expected to average 133 bushels per acre, up 2 bushels from the August forecast, but 11 bushels below last year’s record high of 144 bushels. U.S. corn production is forecast at 13.0 billion bushels, up 2 percent from last month and 7 percent higher than 2008. Based on conditions as of September 1, yields are expected to average 161.9 bushels per acre, up 2.4 bushels from August and 8.0 bushels above last year. If realized, this will be the highest yield on record and production will be the second largest, behind 2007. Yield forecasts increased from last month across the western Corn Belt and the northern half of the Great Plains as mild temperatures and adequate soil moisture supplies provided favorable growing conditions. Yield prospects were unchanged in the eastern Corn Belt where dry conditions during August depleted soil moisture supplies. Soybean production in the Empire State is forecast at a record high 10.8 million bushels, up 4 percent from the 10.4 million bushels produced in 2008. Acreage for harvest is also a record high 252,000 acres up 12 percent from the 226,000 acres harvested last year. Yields are expected to be 43 bushels per acre, up 2 bushel from last month, but down 3 bushels from last year. U.S. soybean production is forecast at 3.25 billion bushels, up 1 percent from the August forecast and up 10 percent from last year. Based on September 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 42.3 bushels per acre, up 0.6 bushel from last month and up 2.7 bushels from 2008. If realized, this will be the third highest yield on record. Compared with last month, yields are forecast higher or unchanged in all states except Indiana, where the yield is expected to be down 2 bushels. The largest increases in yield from the August forecast are expected in Alabama and Maryland, up 5 and 6 bushels, respectively. If realized, the forecasted yield in Alabama, Georgia, and Mississippi will be a record high and the forecasted yield in Nebraska, North Carolina, and Ohio will tie the previous record high. Area for harvest in the U.S. is forecast at 76.8 million acres, up slightly from June and up 3 percent from 2008. Acreage, Yield and Production of Crops, New York and United States Acres for Yield per Crop Unit Planted acres harvest acre Production 2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009 1,000 acres 1,000 acres Units 1,000 units New York Corn for grain bu. 1,090 1,110 640 630 144 133 92,160 83,790 Soybeans bu. 230 255 226 252 46.0 43.0 10,396 10,836 Wheat, winter bu. 130 115 122 110 63.0 62.0 7,686 6,820 Oats bu. 80 85 64 64 66.0 63.0 4,224 4,032 Beans, dry 1/ lbs. 17.0 17.0 16.8 16.41,9301,250 324 205 Potatoes, fall cwt. 18.0 17.1 17.8 16.5 320 2/ 5,696 2/ Hay, alfalfa ton - - 350 420 2.70 2.40 945 1,008 Hay, other ton - - 970 1,060 1.80 1.80 1,746 1,908 mil. Apples lbs. - - - - - - 1,250 1,20 Grapes ton - - - - - - 172.0 140.0 Pears ton - - - - - - 10.3 12.5 Peaches ton - - - - - - 5.5 6.5 United States Corn for grain bu. 85,982 87,035 78,640 80,007153.9161.9 12,101,23812,854,500 Soybeans bu. 75,718 77,483 74,641 76,767 39.6 42.3 2,959,174 3,245,292 Wheat, winter bu. 46,281 43,448 39,614 34,787 47.2 44.2 1,867,903 1,537,348 Oats bu. 3,217 3,158 1,395 1,426 63.5 64.5 88,635 91,960 Barley bu. 4,234 3,627 3,767 3,142 63.6 65.8 239,498 206,728 Beans, dry 1/ lbs.1,495.0 1,481.11,445.2 1,392.01,7681,750 25,558 24,359 Potatoes, summer cwt. 47.2 43.9 45.1 42.5 306 346 13,805 14,705 Potatoes, fall cwt. 931.1 932.9 922.0 922.7 411 2/ 378,588 2/ Hay, alfalfa ton - - 20,980 20,982 3.32 3.48 69,620 72,986 Hay, other ton - - 39,082 39,195 1.95 2.01 76,052 78,955 Apples mil. - - - - lbs. - - 9,769.3 10,113.0 Grapes ton - - - - - - 7,303.3 7,029.0 Pears ton - - - - - - 870.9 935.3 Peaches ton - - - - - - 1,133.3 1,078.3 1/ Production in 100 lb. bags (cleaned basis). 2/ First forecast released November 9. CATTLE AND CALVES: Number of cattle operations, by herd size, New York, 2005-2007 1/ Herd Size Year 1-49 50-99 100-499 500-999 1,000+ Total Number of operations 2005 7,600 3,000 3,700 250 150 14,700 2006 7,500 2,900 3,400 250 150 14,200 2007 7,900 2,300 2,900 320 180 13,600 CATTLE AND CALVES: Percent of inventory, by herd size, New York, 2005-2007 1/ Herd size Year 1-49 50-99 100-499 500-999 1,000+ Percent 2005 9.0 15.0 45.0 12.0 19.0 2006 10.0 15.0 42.0 12.5 20.5 2007 9.0 11.0 39.0 16.0 25.0 MILK COWS: Number of milk cow operations, by herd size, New York, 2005-2007 1/ Number of milk cows in herd Year 1-29 30-49 50-99 100-199 200-499 500 plus Total Number of operations 2005 1,400 1,300 2,500 890 440 170 6,700 2006 1,300 1,300 2,300 920 420 160 6,400 2007 1,250 1,100 1,900 870 370 210 5,700 MILK COWS: Percent of inventory, by herd size, New York, 2005-2007 1/ Year 1-29 30-49 50-99 100-199 200-499 500 plus Percent 2005 2.0 7.5 25.5 18.5 20.5 26.0 2006 2.5 8.0 23.5 20.0 20.0 26.0 2007 2.0 7.0 20.0 19.0 18.0 34.0 1/ An operation is any place having one or more head of cattle on hand at any time during the years for 1999-2006. For 2007, an operation is any place having one or more head of cattle on hand December 31, 2007. Annual state level inventory by size group discontinued in 2008. Available from the Census of Agriculture every five years starting in 2007. AUGUST MILK PRICES INCREASED FROM JULY Prices received by New York producers for milk sold during August were up from a month earlier. The price of eggs also increased. The price of corn, hay, soybeans, and winter wheat decreased. Many previous month prices were revised due to more complete sales information. Grain corn, at $4.00 per bushel, was down 33 cents from June and decreased $1.85 from last year. Hay averaged $122.00 per ton, down $14.00 from July and down $41.00 from August 2008. Winter Wheat, at $4.11 per bushel, was down 37 cents from July and decreased $2.54 from August 2008. Soybeans averaged $10.21 per bushel, down 54 cents from July. Dairy farmers in the Empire State received an average of $11.80 per hundredweight of milk sold during August, up 10 cents from July but $7.30 less than August a year ago. Poultry producers received an average of 57.5 cents per dozen eggs sold, up 5.5 cents from July but 30.8 cents lower than last year. The preliminary All Farm Products Index of Prices Received by Farmers in August, at 127 percent, based on 1990-92=100, decreased 5 points (3.8 percent) from July. The Crop Index is down 6 points (3.9 percent) and the Livestock Index decreased 3 points (2.7 percent). Producers received lower prices for broilers, wheat, corn, and grapes and higher prices for milk, eggs, apples, and lemons. In addition to prices, the overall index is also affected by the seasonal change based on a 3-year average mix of commodities producers sell. Increased monthly marketings of cattle, grapes, sweet corn, and calves offset decreased marketings of wheat, hay, broilers, and strawberries. Prices Received by Farmers 1/ New York United States Commodity Unit Aug. July Aug. Aug. July Aug. 2008 2009 2009 2008 2009 2009 Dollars Dollars Corn bu. 5.85 4.33 4.00 5.26 3.60 3.31 Oats bu. 3.23 - - 3.16 2.03 1.85 Wheat bu. 6.65 4.48 4.11 7.61 5.13 4.72 Barley bu. - - - 5.46 5.12 4.33 Soybeans bu. - 10.75 10.21 12.80 10.80 10.70 Hay, baled ton163.00 136.00122.00 163.00 116.00 109.00 Potatoes cwt. 21.00 - - 11.33 9.81 9.90 Apples, fresh market 2/ cwt. - - - 53.70 17.80 25.60 Milk, wholesale cwt. 19.10 11.70 11.80 18.40 11.30 11.80 Milk cows 3/ head - 1,300.00 - 1,280.00 - Eggs, table market doz. 0.883 0.520 0.575 0.820 0.519 0.579 Slaughter cows cwt. 59.50 48.00 4/ 57.60 47.40 46.70 Steers and heifers cwt. 93.10 78.40 4/ 100.00 85.30 84.60 All slaughter cattle cwt. 63.40 53.50 4/ 85.80 81.10 80.30 Calves cwt. 63.70 40.40 4/ 117.00 110.00 110.00 Hogs cwt. 54.30 45.80 4/ 60.70 43.20 39.70 Lambs cwt. 95.40 105.00 4/ 99.90 101.00 4/ Index (1990-92=100) Prices received 156 132 127 Prices paid 191 177 177 Ratio prices received to prices paid 82 75 72 1/ Mid-month price for current month. Average price for entire month shown for previous periods. 2/ New York price is equivalent packinghouse door. 3/ Milk cow prices published quarterly. 4/ Price available next month. Commercial Livestock Slaughter, July 1/ Number Slaughtered Total Live Weight Species New York United States New York United States 2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009 1,000 head 1,000 head Million pounds Million pounds Cattle 2.4 2.6 3,062.5 2,920.6 2.8 3.2 3,886.2 3,731.4 Calves 23.2 6.8 87.9 79.9 2.3 .6 21.0 18.2 Hogs 3.1 2.8 9,462.8 9,146.7 .6 .5 2,479.6 2,444.5 Sheep and lambs 2.6 2.5 207.1 207.4 .2 .2 27.3 27.9 1/ Slaughter in federal and non-federal inspected plants. Excludes farm slaughter. AUGUST MILK PRODUCTION INCREASED New York dairy herds produced 1.06 billion pounds of milk during August. Milk cows declined while production per cow increased from the previous year resulting in a 0.2 percent increase in milk production compared to August 2008. The number of milk cows averaged 618,000 head, down 8,000 head from August of the previous year. Milk per cow averaged 1,715 pounds up 25 pounds from the August 2008 rate. Milk production in the 23 major States during August totaled 14.6 billion pounds, down 0.2 percent from August 2008. July revised production at 14.8 billion pounds, was down slightly from July 2008. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,743 pounds for August, 25 pounds above August 2008. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.37 million head, 143,000 head less than August 2008, and 28,000 head less than July 2009. Dairy Briefs New York 23 Major States Item Unit Aug. July Aug. Aug. July Aug. 2008 2009 2009 2008 2009 2009 Milk Production Mil. lb. 1,058 1,077 1,060 14,626 14,845 14,594 Milk per cow Lb. 1,690 1,735 1,715 1,718 1,767 1,743 Thou. No. of milk cows hd. 626 621 618 8,515 8,400 8,372 Dairy Products Manufactured New York United States Item Unit July June July July June July 2008 2009 2009 2008 2009 2009 Thou. Butter lb. - - - 114,185 125,497 111,630 Thou. American cheese lb. - - - 341,914 353,396 352,234 Thou. Mozzarella cheese lb. 15,980 17,478 18,996 261,510 269,830 273,564 Yogurt, plain and Thou. flavored lb. - - - 287,147 334,486 303,844 Thou. Ice cream, hard gal. 3,240 2,619 2,948 84,717 89,918 85,903 NEW YORK EGG PRODUCTION UP 7 PERCENT IN JULY Egg production on New York farms totaled 102 million eggs in July 2009, up 7 percent from last year. The number of hens and pullets of laying age, at 4.08 million, increased 6 percent from July 2008 and the rate of lay increased 1 percent to 2,501 eggs per 100 layers. U.S. egg production totaled 7.59 billion during July 2009, down slightly from last year. Production included 6.51 billion table eggs, and 1.08 billion hatching eggs, of which 1.01 billion were broiler-type and 71 million were egg-type. The total number of layers during July 2009 averaged 333 million, down 1 percent from last year. Eggs in incubators totaled 32.8 million on August 1, 2009, up slightly from a year ago. Poultry Briefs Item Unit July June July July June July 2008 2009 2009 2008 2009 2009 New York United States Number of layers Thou. 3,846 4,038 4,078 336,276 333,388 332,602 Eggs per 100 layers No. 2,470 2,402 2,501 2,260 2,204 2,281 Eggs produced Mil. 95 97 102 7,599 7,347 7,586 North and South Atlantic United States States Chicks hatched, egg-type Thou. 2/ 2/ 2/ 37,250 43,453 36,282 Chicks hatched, broiler type Thou. 2/ 2/ 2/ 805,182 770,970 781,215 Chicken eggs in incubators 1/ Egg-type Thou. 7,559 8,586 6,974 32,663 32,353 32,782 Broiler-type Thou. 252,636 243,344 243,700 649,735 631,336 627,645 1/ First day of following month. 2/ Data not published to avoid disclosing individual operations. This report, in addition to many others, is available free of charge at our website at www.nass.usda.gov/ny/ The USDA, NASS New York Field Office thanks the agricultural businesses and farm operators who respond to our surveys. This complimentary report is being sent to those asking for the survey results during the survey interview.