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NEW YORK CROP AND LIVESTOCK REPORT

Released: November 2002
Monthly

No. 973-11-02

New York grain corn production is forecast at 40.1 million bushels, down 29 percent from last year's output. Production is down due to decreases in both the number of acres harvested and the yield per acre. Acreage for harvest is expected to total 450 thousand acres, down 17 percent from a year earlier. Yields are expected to average 89.0 bushels per acre, 16 bushels less than in 2001 and the lowest since 1988. U.S. corn production is forecast at 9.00 billion bushels, up slightly from last month but down 5 percent from 2001. Based on conditions as of November 1, yields are expected to average 127.6 bushels per acre, up 0.4 bushel from October but down 10.6 bushels from last year. If realized, production would be at the lowest level since 1995. Yield prospects in Iowa, Minnesota, and Nebraska increased from last month despite heavy rainfall at the beginning of the month which slowed harvest progress. Ohio producers realized lower than expected yields from last month as harvest progressed on the late planted, drought stricken crop.

Soybean production in New York is forecast at 4.59 million bushels, down 12 percent from last year. Acreage harvested for beans is expected to total 153 thousand acres, down 3 percent from a year earlier. Yields are expected to average 30.0 bushels per acre, down 3 bushels from 2001. U.S. soybean production is forecast at 2.69 billion bushels, up 1 percent from October but 7 percent below 2001. Based on November 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 37.5 bushels per acre, up 0.5 bushel from last month. If realized, this would be the lowest production since 1999. Area for harvest is forecast at 71.8 million acres, unchanged from October but 2 percent below last year. As harvest progressed, producers realized yield increases from last month in the northern Great Plains, Great Lakes, upper Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley. However, in the Atlantic Coast States, yield prospects decreased from last month.

Production of fall potatoes in New York in 2002 is estimated at 5.50 million hundredweight (cwt.), down 7 percent from a year ago. Yields are expected to average 250 cwt. per acre compared with 255 cwt. per acre last year. This would be the lowest yield since 1991. Acreage for harvest is estimated at 22.0 thousand acres, down 6 percent from last year. U.S. production of fall potatoes is forecast at 415 million cwt., up 5 percent from last year but 11 percent smaller than the record high 2000 crop. Area harvested, at 1.12 million acres, is up 4 percent from last year but 6 percent below two years ago. The average yield is forecast at 371 cwt. per acre, 4 cwt. above last year. Production estimates are generally lower this year in Central and Eastern States but higher in the West. Harvest has been completed on schedule in nearly all States.

Prices received by New York farmers during October for selected agricultural commodities were mixed compared with a month earlier. Prices for oats, barley, hay, apples, and milk increased while prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, potatoes, and eggs declined.

Grain corn prices averaged $2.97 per bushel, down 17 cents from September but 66 cents above October 2001. Oats, at $1.85 per bushel, were up 21 cents from a month earlier and 42 cents above a year ago. Wheat averaged $3.28 per bushel, down 17 cents from September but 70 cents above last October. Barley, at $2.02 per bushel, was up 18 cents from the previous month. Soybeans returned $5.10 per bushel, down 83 cents from September but 72 cents above October 2001. Hay prices averaged $103.00 per ton baled, up $4.00 from September and $3.00 more than last October. Potato prices declined $2.80 from a month earlier, averaging $12.20 per hundredweight (cwt.). Prices for fresh market apples at the packinghouse door averaged $29.80 per cwt., up $1.10 from September and $10.10 more than a year ago.

Empire State dairy farmers received an average of $12.40 per cwt. of milk sold during October, up 10 cents from the previous month but $4.20 below last October. Dairy herd replacements returned an average of $1,400.00 per head compared with $1,600.00 in October 2001. Poultry producers received an average of 41.0 cents per dozen eggs sold during the month, down 3.0 cents from September and 7.8 cents less than a year earlier.

At the National level, the preliminary All Farm Products Index of Prices Received by Farmers in October was 95, based on 1990-92=100, down 4 points (4.0 percent) from the September index. Lower prices for broilers, potatoes, corn, and soybeans more than offset increased prices for hogs, wheat, milk, and tobacco. The seasonal change in the mix of commodities farmers sell also affects the overall index. Decreased marketings of wheat, milk, grapes, and tobacco more than offset increased marketings of soybeans, corn, cotton, and sorghum. The current All Farm Products Index is 1 point (1.1 percent) above October 2001.

October milk production in the 20 major producing States totaled 12.0 billion pounds, up 2.3 percent from production in these same States during October 2001. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,544 pounds for October, 22 pounds above a year earlier. The number of cows on farms was 7.79 million head, 67,000 head more than October 2001, and 8,000 head more than September 2002.

Egg production on New York farms totaled 90 million eggs in September 2002, down 3 percent from the same month a year earlier. The decrease was the result of fewer layers and a lower rate of lay. The number of hens and pullets of laying age, at 4.02 million, was down 1 percent from September 2001, while the rate of lay was down 2 percent to 22.39 eggs per layer.

Laying flocks in the United States produced 7.15 billion eggs during September 2002, up 1 percent from the previous September. An indication of future egg supply, chicks hatched in the U.S. during September for the purpose of egg production totaled 35.4 million, down 4 percent from September 2001. Eggs in incubators on October 1, 2002 totaled 30.8 million, down 3 percent from the October 1, 2001 total.