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Released: November 2003

Monthly

No. 973-11-03

New York grain corn production is forecast at 54.3 million bushels, up 24 percent from last year's output. Production is up due to increases in both the number of acres harvested and the yield per acre. Acreage for harvest is expected to total 460 thousand acres, up 2 percent from a year earlier. Yields are expected to average a record high 118 bushels per acre, 21 bushels more than in 2002. U.S. corn production is forecast at 10.3 billion bushels, up 1 percent from last month and 14 percent above 2002. Based on conditions as of November 1, yields are expected to average 143.2 bushels per acre, up 1.0 bushel from October and up 13.2 bushels from last year. If realized, both production and yield would be the largest on record. Both previous records were set in 1994. Of the major producing States, Illinois and Ohio are expecting record yields. Yields are also forecast at record highs in 8 other States located mostly in the Southeast.

Soybean production in New York is forecast at 5.25 million bushels, up 14 percent from last year. Acreage harvested for beans is expected to total 142 thousand acres, down 1 percent from a year earlier. Yields are expected to average 37 bushels per acre, up 5 bushels from 2002. U.S. soybean production is forecast at 2.45 billion bushels, down 1 percent from the October forecast and 11 percent below 2002. If realized, this would be the lowest production since 1996. Based on conditions as of November 1, yields are expected to average 33.8 bushels per acre, down 0.2 bushel from October and down 4.2 bushels from 2002. Area for harvest is forecast at 72.5 million acres, unchanged from last month but up fractionally from 2002. As harvest progressed, producers realized yield decreases from last month in South Dakota, upper Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, and eastern Corn Belt. However, in Alabama, Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, the Tennessee Valley, and along the Atlantic Coastal Plains, yield prospects increased from last month.

Production of fall potatoes in New York in 2002 is estimated at 6.51 million hundredweight (cwt.), up 18 percent from a year ago. Yields are expected to average a record high 300 cwt. per acre compared with 250 cwt. per acre last year. Acreage for harvest is estimated at 21.7 thousand acres, down 1 percent from last year. U.S. production of fall potatoes is forecast at 414 million cwt., down fractionally from 2002. Area for harvest, at 1.09 million acres, is down 1 percent from last year. The average yield is forecast at 378 cwt. per acre, 5 cwt. above last year. Production estimates are generally higher this year in the Central and Eastern States but lower in the West. Harvest is progressing on schedule in nearly all of the Central and Western States, while Eastern States have been delayed by wet weather.

Prices received by New York farmers during October for selected agricultural commodities were mostly lower compared with a month earlier. Prices for corn, oats, wheat, barley, potatoes, and apples decreased while prices for soybeans, hay, milk, and eggs increased.

Grain corn prices averaged $2.64 per bushel, down 20 cents from September and 23 cents below October 2002. Oats, at $1.74 per bushel, were down 16 cents from a month earlier and 11 cents below a year ago. Wheat averaged $1.73 per bushel, down 21 cents from September and $1.76 below last October. Barley, at $2.04 per bushel, was down 2 cents from the previous month but 2 cents more than a year ago. Soybeans returned $7.05 per bushel, up 55 cents from September and $1.64 above October 2002. Hay prices averaged $126.00 per ton baled, up $7.00 from September and $23.00 more than last October. Potato prices declined 90 cents from a month earlier, averaging $9.80 per hundredweight (cwt.). Prices for fresh market apples at the packinghouse door averaged $25.90 per cwt., down 90 cents from September and $3.90 less than a year ago.

Empire State dairy farmers received an average of $15.40 per cwt. of milk sold during October, up 50 cents from the previous month and $2.80 above last October. Dairy herd replacements returned an average of $1,300.00 per head compared with $1,400.00 in October 2002. Poultry producers received an average of 76.0 cents per dozen eggs sold during the month, up 9.0 cents from September and 35.0 cents more than a year earlier.

At the National level, the preliminary All Farm Products Index of Prices Received by Farmers in October is 113, based on 1990-92=100, 3 points above the September Index. Since last month, the Livestock & Products Index was higher while the All Crops Index was unchanged. Higher commodity prices for cattle, soybeans, dairy, and lettuce more than offset lower prices for corn, hogs, wheat, and potatoes. The seasonal change in the mix of commodities farmers sell, based on the past 3-year average, also affects the overall index. Increased average marketings of soybeans, corn, cotton, and cottonseed more than offset decreased marketings of dairy, grapes, wheat, and tobacco.

New York dairy herds produced 968 million pounds of milk during October, down 4 percent from the October 2002 level. The decrease was the result of fewer cows and a lower rate per cow. The number of milk cows totaled 665,000 head, down 11,000 head from October of the previous year. Milk per cow averaged 1,455 pounds, 30 pounds less than October 2002.

Milk production in the 20 major states during October totaled 12.0 billion pounds, down slightly from production in these same states during October 2002. Production per cow averaged 1,550 pounds for October, up 11 pounds from October 2002. The number of cows on farms in the 20 major states was 7.72 million head, 70,000 head less than October 2002.