New York Crop and Livestock Report November 2004

New York grain corn production is forecast at 54.5 million bushels, up 2 percent from last year's. Production is up due to increases in the number of acres harvested, while yield per acre showed no gain. Acreage for harvest is expected to total 450 thousand acres, up 2 percent from a year earlier. Yields are expected to average a record high 121 bushels per acre, the same as 2003. U.S. corn production is forecast at 11.7 billion bushels, up 1 percent from last month and 16 percent above 2003. Based on conditions as of November 1, the yield is expected to average 160.2 bushels per acre, up 1.8 bushels from October and 18.0 bushels above last year. If realized, both production and yield would be the largest on record. The previous records for both were set last year when production was estimated at 10.1 billion bushels and yield was 142.2 bushels per acre. Across the U.S., yields are forecast at record high levels in 19 of the 33 published corn States. With the exception of Wisconsin, yields in the Corn Belt States are forecast at record highs as weather conditions have been mostly favorable throughout the growing season.

Soybean production in New York is forecast at a record high 6.23 million bushels, up 29 percent from last year. Acreage harvested for beans is expected to total 173 thousand acres, up 25 percent from a year earlier. Yields are expected to average 36 bushels per acre, up 1 bushel from 2003. U.S. soybean production is forecast at 3.15 billion bushels, up 1 percent from October and 28 percent above 2003. If realized, this would be the largest U.S. soybean crop on record. Based on November 1 conditions, yields are expected to average a record high 42.6 bushels per acre, up 0.6 bushel from October and 8.7 bushels above last year. Producers in the Corn Belt, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and the Carolinas are realizing higher yields than expected last month, while yield prospects decreased as harvest progressed in North Dakota and Minnesota. Area for harvest in the U.S. is forecast at 74.0 million acres, unchanged from last month but up 2 percent from 2003.

Crop	Unit	Acres for harvest		Yield per acre		Production
Crop	Unit	2003	2004	2003	2004	2003	2004
		1,000 acres		Units		1,000 units
New York
Corn for grain	bu.	440	450	121.0	121.0	53,240	54,450
Wheat, winter	bu.	120	100	53.0	53.0	6,360	5,300
Oats	bu.	70	50	63.0	65.0	4,410	3,250
Barley	bu.	13	10	50.0	53.0	650	530
Rye	bu.	8	9	33.0	43.0	264	387
Soybeans	bu.	138	173	35.0	36.0	4,830	6,228
Beans, dry 1/	lbs.	24.0	23.5	1,860.0	1,500.0	446	353
Potatoes, fall	cwt.	21.7	19.2	300	250	6,510	4,800
Hay, alfalfa	ton	600	500	2.80	3.00	1,680	1,500
Hay, other	ton	1,250	1,150	1.60	2.00	2,000	2,300
Apples	mil. lbs.	-	-	-	-	990	1,070
Grapes	ton	-	-	-	-	198.0	145.0
Peaches	mil. lb.	-	-	-	-	13.0	11.0
Pears	ton	-	-	-	-	15.5	15.5
United States
Corn for grain	bu.	71,139	73,311	142.2	160.2	10,113,887	11,740,920
Wheat, winter	bu.	36,753	34,462	46.7	43.5	1,716,721	1,499,434
Oats	bu.	2,220	1,807	65.0	64.5	144,383	116,505
Barley	bu.	4,727	4,031	58.9	69.5	278,283	280,103
Rye	bu.	319	320	27.1	26.9	8,634	8,615
Soybeans	bu.	72,476	73,990	33.9	42.6	2,453,655	3,150,144
Beans, dry 1/	lbs.	1,346.9	1,250.1	1,672.0	1,495.0	22,515	18,693
Potatoes, fall	cwt.	1,090.9	1,024.5	376	398	410,588	407,786
Hay, alfalfa	ton	23,578	22,226	3.2	3.5	76,307	77,371
Hay, other	ton	39,764	39,363	2.03	2.25	80,816	88,549
Apples	mil. lbs.	-	-	-	-	8,613.3	9,458.9
Grapes	ton	-	-	-	-	6,572.7	6,073.0
Peaches	mil. lb.	-	-	-	-	2,519.0	2,598.0
Pears	ton	-	-	-	-	928,050.0	908,040.0
1/Production in 100 lb. bags (cleaned basis).

Production of fall potatoes in New York in 2004 is estimated at 4.80 million hundredweight (cwt.), down 26 percent from a year ago. Yields are expected to average 250 cwt. per acre compared with 300 cwt. per acre last year. Heavy rains late in the season drowned out areas in low lying fields resulting in quality problems and higher rates of abandonment. Acreage for harvest is estimated at 19.2 thousand acres, down 1 percent from last year. U.S. production of fall potatoes for 2004 is forecast at 408 million cwt., down 1 percent from last year for comparable States. The average yield is forecast at 398 cwt. per acre, 22 cwt. above last year. If realized, this will be a record high yield, 6 cwt. above the previous record set in 2000.

Prices received by New York producers during October for selected commodities were mostly lower than a month earlier. Prices for eggs, corn, oats, soybeans, wheat, and apples declined. The price of milk, hay, and barley increased.

Grain corn averaged $2.37 per bushel during October, 54 cents less than September and 44 cents less than a year earlier. Oats sold for an average of $1.59 during October, 16 cents below September and 22 cents below October 2003. Wheat, at $1.93 per bushel, was 91 cents less than a month earlier and 17 cents less than October a year ago. Barley returned an average of $2.28 per bushel, 28 cents above September but 12 cents below last year. Soybeans averaged $4.78 per bushel, down $3.22 from September and $2.22 below October 2003. Hay, at $125.00 per ton, was up $21.00 from September but down $1.00 from a year ago. Fresh market apple prices at the packinghouse door averaged 24.0 cents per pound, down 0.9 cents from September and 1.9 cents from October 2003.

Dairy farmers in the Empire State received an average of $16.60 per hundredweight of milk sold during October, up 60 cents from September and up $1.20 from October a year ago. The price of milk cow replacements averaged $1,580 per head compared with $1,300 during October 2003. Poultry producers received an average of 35 cents per dozen eggs sold, down 6 cents from September and down 41 cents from October 2003.

The preliminary All Farm Products Index of Prices Received by Farmers in October, at 111, based on 1990-92=100, is 4 points (3.5 percent) below the September Index. Declines occurred in both the Crop Price Index and the Livestock Price Index. The Crop Index declined 6 points (5.4 percent) from September while the Livestock Index decreased 1 point (0.8 percent). Producers received higher commodity prices for lettuce, tomatoes, oranges, grapes, and cucumbers. Lower prices were received for corn, soybeans, hogs, broilers, and potatoes. The seasonal change in the mix of commodities farmers sell, based on the past 3-year average, also affects the overall index. Increased average marketings of soybeans, corn, and cotton offset decreased marketings of dairy, grapes, and sweet corn. The preliminary All Farm Products Index is down 2 points (1.8 percent) from October 2003.

Commodity	Unit	New York			United States
Commodity	Unit	Oct 2003	Sep 2004	Oct 2004	Oct 2003	Sep 2004	Oct 2004
		Dollars			Dollars
Corn	bu.	2.81	2.91	2.37	2.12	2.20	1.89
Oats	bu.	1.81	1.75	1.59	1.80	1.44	1.37
Wheat	bu.	2.10	2.84	1.93	4.38	3.26	3.29
Barley	bu.	2.40	2.00	2.28	2.64	2.43	2.36
Soybeans	bu.	7.00	8.00	4.78	6.61	5.84	5.07
Hay, baled	ton	126.00	104.00	125.00	93.80	87.70	89.80
Potatoes	cwt.	9.80	10.10	9.60	4.91	5.27	4.74
Apples, fresh market 2/	cwt.	25.90	24.90	24.00	27.90	27.20	27.10
Milk, wholesale	cwt.	15.40	16.00	16.60	15.00	15.40	15.50
Milk cows 3/	head	1,300.00	-	1,580.00	1,380.00	-	1,640.00
Eggs, table market	doz.	0.760	0.410	0.350	0.706	0.351	0.303
Slaughter cows	cwt.	41.40	46.60	4/	44.60	53.10	50.40
Steers and heifers	cwt.	71.10	69.30	4/	97.80	89.30	91.10
All slaughter cattle	cwt.	43.80	47.70	4/	91.50	85.80	86.40
Calves	cwt.	98.40	107.60	4/	112.00	129.00	127.00
Hogs	cwt.	-	-	-	36.70	54.80	51.40
Lambs	cwt.	-	-	-	96.80	101.00	-
Index (1990-92=100)
Prices received					113	115	111
Prices paid					129	134	134
Ratio prices received to prices paid					88

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State	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004
	Dollars
New York	1,430	1,520	1,610	1,700	1,780
Massachusetts	6,500	7,300	8,100	9,300	9,900
New Hampshire	2,400	2,550	2,800	3,100	3,250
New Jersey	7,600	8,100	8,600	9,100	9,750
Pennsylvania	2,800	3,000	3,250	3,450	3,650
48 States	1,090	1,150	1,210	1,270	1,360

State	Cropland Rented for Cash			Pasture Rented for Cash
State	2002	2003	2004	2002	2003	2004
	Dollars
New York	35.00	37.00	40.00	1/	1/	1/
Pennsylvania	40.00	41.00	43.00	28.00	25.00	25.00
New Jersey	47.00	47.00	47.50	1/	1/	1/
48 States	71.60	73.00	76.50	9.20	9.00	9.60
1/ Insufficient data.