|
VOL. 21,
NO. 10
JULY
CROP REPORT
The
Illinois wheat yield for the 2000 crop
is now estimated to average 56 bushels per acre based on July surveys,
up one bushel from the June forecast. This is four bushels below
the yield attained in 1999 and five bushels below the record yield
in 1997. With a yield of 56 bushels per acre, production would be
50.96 million bushels, 16 percent below the 1999 production. Acreage
expected to be harvested for grain at 910 thousand acres is down
ten percent from the acreage harvested for grain in 1999. By July
2, 71 percent of the crop was harvested which compares to 66 percent
last year and the five-year average of 46 percent.
Production
of oats in Illinois for 2000 is estimated at 4.38 million
bushels, three percent above 1999. Acreage to be harvested for grain,
at 60 thousand acres, is unchanged from last year. The yield is
estimated at 73 bushels per acre, two bushels above last year's
average yield. As of July 2, 14 percent of the crop was ripe compared
to ten percent last year and the five-year average of four percent.
The Illinois
peach crop for 2000 is estimated at 19 million pounds.
This year's forecast is unchanged from last year.
|
ACREAGE
& PRODUCTION
|
|
Crop |
Illinois |
United
States |
| 1999 |
2000 |
1999 |
2000 |
| |
Acreage
and production in thousands
|
| Winter
Wheat |
| Acres
1/ |
1,010 |
910 |
35,572 |
35,401 |
| Yield,
bu. |
60.0 |
56.0 |
47.8 |
44.9 |
| Production |
60,600 |
50,960 |
1,699,989 |
1,588,376 |
| |
| Oats,
Grain |
| Acres
1/ |
60 |
60 |
2,453 |
2,472 |
| Yield,
bu. |
71.0 |
73.0 |
59.6 |
61.2 |
| Production |
4,260 |
4,380 |
146,218 |
151,380 |
|
| Potatoes
(Summer) |
| Acres
1/ |
4.7 |
5.3 |
63.9 |
62.7 |
| Yield,
cwt. |
350 |
300 |
295 |
289 |
| Production |
1,645 |
1,590 |
18,865 |
18,102 |
| |
| Peaches |
| Production |
19.0 |
19.0 |
2,513.4 |
2,668.1 |
| 1/
Harvested acres. |
|
WINTER
WHEAT, 1999-2000
|
|
District |
Acres
planted |
Acres
for harvest |
Yield |
Production |
| 1999 |
2000 |
1999 |
2000 |
1999 |
2000 |
1999 |
2000 |
| |
1,000
acres
|
1,000
acres |
Bushels |
1,000
bushels |
| Northwest |
20 |
21 |
18 |
20 |
67 |
61 |
1,206 |
1,215 |
| Northeast |
33 |
36 |
32 |
35 |
71 |
53 |
2,272 |
1,855 |
| West |
52 |
48 |
50 |
44 |
61 |
57 |
3,050 |
2,508 |
| Central |
29 |
36 |
28 |
35 |
65 |
56 |
1,820 |
1,960 |
| East |
29 |
49 |
28 |
47 |
78 |
65 |
2,184 |
3,055 |
| West
Southwest |
179 |
165 |
174 |
160 |
62 |
59 |
10,788 |
9,440 |
| East
Southeast |
205 |
200 |
198 |
194 |
57 |
63 |
11,286 |
12,222 |
| Southwest |
349 |
280 |
334 |
265 |
59 |
49 |
19,706 |
12,985 |
| Southeast |
154 |
115 |
148 |
110 |
56 |
52 |
8,288 |
5,720 |
| ILLINOIS |
1,050 |
950 |
1,010 |
910 |
60 |
56 |
60,600 |
50,960 |
U.S.
CROP PRODUCTION
Winter wheat
production is forecast at 1.59 billion bushels. This is
down two percent from last month and down seven percent from 1999.
The U.S. yield is forecast at 44.9 bushels per acre, down 1.8 bushels
from last month. Hard Red Winter, at 887 million bushels, is down
six percent from a month ago. White Winter is up for the second
consecutive month and now totals 235 million bushels. Soft Red Winter
is up four percent from the last forecast, at 467 million bushels.
Durum wheat production is forecast at 128 million bushels, up 29
percent from 1999. The U.S. yield is forecast at 32.2 bushels per
acre, 4.4 bushels more than last year. Other Spring wheat production
is forecast at 526 million bushels, up five percent from 1999. The
U.S. yield is forecast at 34.9 bushels per acre, 0.8 bushels higher
than last year. Of this total, 470 million is Hard Red Spring wheat,
up five percent from last season.
Winter Wheat
acres for harvest as grain are forecast at 35.4 million,
down slightly from 1999. Harvest progress in the 18 major producing
states had reached 65 percent completion by July 2. This was more
than 20 points ahead of both last year and the normal pace.
Yield declines
are forecast in all of the major Hard Red Wheat (HRW) States.
Forecasted head counts from the Objective Yield surveys in the six
HRW States (Colorado, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Texas)
are down slightly from last month, while weight per head is down
a collective four percent. Above average rainfall during June caused
some harvest delay in Oklahoma. Harvest has progressed rapidly in
Kansas and Nebraska.
Harvested yields
were better than previously expected in the Soft Red Wheat (SRW)
States. Arkansas, Georgia, Indiana, Mississippi and Pennsylvania
now expect record highs. These states joined Ohio where a record
had been forecast a month ago. Collective head count forecasts are
virtually unchanged in the SRW Objective Yield States (Illinois,
Missouri and Ohio), but average weight per head is up eight percent
from a month ago.
|
SOYBEANS: PERCENT
OF ACREAGE PLANTED
FOLLOWING ANOTHER CROP 1/
|
| State |
1997 |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
|
| Alabama |
21 |
26 |
36 |
26 |
| Arkansas |
23 |
25 |
23 |
28 |
| Delaware |
60 |
43 |
31 |
49 |
| Florida |
27 |
15 |
0 |
39 |
| Georgia |
44 |
42 |
44 |
32 |
| ILLINOIS |
5 |
5 |
5 |
4 |
| Indiana |
5 |
4 |
2 |
2 |
| Kansas |
1 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
| Kentucky |
34 |
51 |
36 |
37 |
| Louisiana |
7 |
6 |
6 |
13 |
| Maryland |
48 |
33 |
33 |
36 |
| Mississippi |
8 |
5 |
9 |
9 |
| Missouri |
9 |
13 |
7 |
9 |
| New Jersey |
33 |
21 |
33 |
25 |
| N. Carolina |
43 |
44 |
50 |
39 |
| Ohio |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
| Oklahoma |
26 |
11 |
16 |
19 |
| Pennsylvania |
26 |
18 |
16 |
6 |
| S. Carolina |
66 |
48 |
45 |
38 |
| Tennessee |
31 |
35 |
28 |
32 |
| Texas |
9 |
3 |
4 |
13 |
| Virginia |
60 |
45 |
43 |
29 |
| U.S. |
8 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
| 1/
Data as obtained from area frame samples. These data do not
represent official estimates but provide raw data as obtained
from survey respondents. The purpose of these data is to portray
trends in production practices. |
LAYERS & EGG PRODUCTION
In
Illinois, the average number of layers on hand
was up 18 percent in March, up nine percent in April and up eight
percent in May compared to those same months last year. The number
of eggs produced increased 21 percent in March, 11 percent in April
and increased seven percent in May compared to the same time last
year.
In the United
States, the average number of layers on hand and
the number of eggs produced increased in March, April and May compared
to a year ago. The average number of layers on hand was up three
percent in March and up two percent in April and May. The number
of eggs produced was up three percent for March and April and up
two percent in May.
|
LAYERS
& EGG PRODUCTION, ILLINOIS & UNITED STATES, MARCH-MAY
2000
|
| |
Illinois
|
|
March
|
April
|
May
1/
|
|
1999
|
2000
|
1999
|
2000
|
1999
|
2000
|
| Average
Number of Layers on
hand (thousand) |
3,081 |
3,622 |
3,337 |
3,654 |
3,258 |
3,532 |
| |
| Eggs
produced (million) |
70 |
85 |
72 |
80 |
74 |
79 |
| |
United
States
|
| Average
Number of Layers on
hand (thousand) |
322,758 |
330,927 |
321,515 |
329,243 |
320,498 |
326,554 |
| |
| Eggs
produced (million) |
7,052 |
7,235 |
6,784 |
7,013 |
6,941 |
7,107 |
| 1/
Preliminary. |
AGRICULTURAL PRICES
June prices
received by Illinois farmers for all commodities
decreased five points from the revised May number, and is at 76
percent of the base. The current year's base is computed by multiplying
the average production for the five-year period by the average price
for each year. These five years are summed and then divided by five
to arrive at an average (base) for the period. The current five-year
average production is then multiplied by the current price and divided
by the average for the five years to arrive at the current index.
The June all crops index, at 68 percent of the base, is six points
below last month and one point below June 1999. Prices decreased
for corn, soybeans, sorghum and oats. The all livestock index is
at 101 percent of the base, two points lower than the revised May
figure. The price of hogs, beef cattle and calves decreased. The
hog-corn ratio is at 24.6.
The preliminary
U.S. All Farm Products Index of Prices Received in June was
99 based on 1990-92=100, down two points from the May index. Lower
prices for lettuce, corn, cattle, soybeans and broccoli more than
offset the relatively lower marketings of oranges, tomatoes, strawberries
and cattle. Compared with June 1999, the All Farm Products Index
was two points higher. Price increases from June 1999 for hogs,
cattle, lettuce and soybeans more than offset price decreases for
milk, oranges, corn and broilers.
| INDEX
OF PRICES RECEIVED BY FARMERS |
|
Commodity |
May
1999 |
June
1999 |
May
2000 |
June
15,
2000 |
| ILLINOIS |
1993-97=100 |
1994-98=100 |
| All
Farm Products |
73 |
73 |
81* |
76 |
| All
Crops |
68 |
69 |
74* |
68 |
| Food
grains |
55 |
64 |
62* |
70 |
| Feed
grains/hay |
72 |
72 |
75* |
65 |
| Soybeans |
65 |
66 |
75* |
72 |
| All
Livestock |
85 |
83 |
103* |
101 |
| Meat
animals |
82 |
80 |
106* |
104 |
| Dairy
products |
95 |
98 |
85* |
86 |
| UNITED
STATES |
1990-92=100
|
| Prices
Received |
98 |
97 |
101* |
99 |
| All
Crops |
103 |
100 |
104* |
99 |
| Food
grains |
90 |
87 |
86* |
85 |
| Feed
grains/hay |
93 |
91 |
97* |
87 |
| Oilseeds |
81 |
80 |
92* |
87 |
| All
Livestock |
93 |
95 |
99* |
99 |
| Meat
animals |
83 |
84 |
98* |
96 |
| Dairy
products |
97 |
100 |
92* |
93 |
| Prices
Paid |
115 |
115 |
120* |
120 |
| Parity
Ratio 1/ |
85 |
84 |
84* |
83 |
1/
Prices received index divided by prices paid index.
* Revised. |
|
PRICES
RECEIVED BY FARMERS 1/
|
|
Commodity |
Unit |
Illinois |
United
States |
May
1999 |
June
1999 |
May
2000 |
June
15,
2000 |
May
1999 |
June
1999 |
May
2000 |
June
15,
2000 |
| |
|
Dollars
|
| Corn |
Bushels |
2.08 |
2.08 |
2.20* |
1.90 |
1.99 |
1.97 |
2.10* |
1.81 |
| Soybeans |
Bushels |
4.57 |
4.54 |
5.28* |
5.00 |
4.50 |
4.44 |
5.19* |
4.91 |
| Sorghum |
Cwt. |
3.50 |
3.57 |
3.94* |
3.40 |
2.90 |
2.85 |
3.38* |
3.12 |
| Wheat,
all |
Bushels |
2.04 |
2.12 |
2.27* |
2.30 |
2.49 |
2.50 |
2.59* |
2.52 |
| Oats |
Bushels |
1.70 |
1.12 |
1.59* |
1.50 |
1.31 |
1.22 |
1.32* |
1.24 |
| Hay,
all baled |
Tons |
78.00 |
75.00 |
81.00 |
82.00 |
92.60 |
81.70 |
89.40* |
82.50 |
| Alfalfa
hay, bld |
Tons |
83.00 |
78.00 |
86.00 |
87.00 |
96.60 |
85.00 |
93.90* |
85.70 |
| Other
hay, bld |
Tons |
59.00 |
63.00 |
62.00 |
62.00 |
70.10 |
68.50 |
71.30* |
70.90 |
| Hogs,
all |
Cwt. |
35.10 |
32.60 |
47.10* |
46.80 |
36.60 |
34.10 |
48.50* |
47.90 |
| Barrows,
Gilts |
Cwt. |
35.60 |
33.00 |
47.70* |
47.90 |
37.00 |
34.50 |
49.00* |
48.60 |
| Sows |
Cwt. |
29.50 |
27.70 |
40.20* |
34.10 |
28.00 |
28.00 |
39.30* |
35.00 |
| Beef
cattle |
Cwt. |
62.20 |
63.20 |
70.90* |
68.60 |
62.10 |
63.70 |
69.40* |
67.90 |
| Cows |
Cwt. |
35.60 |
36.50 |
40.20* |
39.20 |
36.40 |
36.70 |
38.90* |
39.20 |
| Steers,
Heifers |
Cwt. |
62.70 |
63.70 |
71.50* |
69.20 |
65.20 |
66.70 |
73.20* |
71.30 |
| Calves |
Cwt. |
107.00 |
106.00 |
116.00* |
114.00 |
87.60 |
89.00 |
107.00* |
103.00 |
| Milk
cows |
Head |
2/ |
2/ |
2/ |
2/ |
2/ |
2/ |
2/ |
2/ |
| Milk,
all |
Cwt. |
12.90 |
13.10 |
11.10 |
11.20 |
12.70 |
13.10 |
12.00* |
12.20 |
| Milk,
fluid |
Cwt. |
12.90 |
13.10 |
11.10 |
3/ |
12.80 |
13.20 |
12.10* |
12.20 |
| Milk,
mfg. |
Cwt. |
12.30 |
12.10 |
10.50 |
3/ |
11.60 |
12.00 |
10.10* |
10.40 |
| Hog-corn
ratio |
|
16.9 |
15.7 |
21.4* |
24.6 |
18.4 |
17.3 |
23.1* |
26.5 |
1/
Prices received represents the average of all grades or classes
at point of first sale and should not be confused with market
quotations.
2/ Estimated
in January, April, July and October.
3/ State prices
not published.
* Revised.
|
AGRICULTURAL
EXPORT SHARES
|
AGRICULTURAL
EXPORT SHARES, ILLINOIS AND UNITED STATES, 1997-99 1/
|
|
Illinois |
United
States |
| 1997 |
1998 |
1999 |
1997 |
1998 |
1999 |
| |
Million
dollars
|
| Feed grains and
products |
1,287.9 |
916.2 |
978.0 |
8,447.6 |
6,342.9 |
6,805.6 |
| |
| Soybeans and products |
1,550.9 |
1,435.4 |
1,107.5 |
9,253.6 |
9,020.3 |
6,530.3 |
| |
| Live animals and
meat |
234.1 |
240.7 |
229.9 |
5,319.3 |
5,421.7 |
5,334.5 |
| |
| Wheat and products |
140.2 |
146.2 |
144.6 |
4,331.1 |
3,964.3 |
3,930.7 |
| |
| Feeds and fodders |
89.5 |
89.7 |
85.5 |
1,811.2 |
1,721.3 |
1,673.4 |
| |
| Hides and skins |
50.1 |
40.4 |
32.9 |
1,693.2 |
1,358.3 |
1,108.5 |
| |
| Seeds |
57.6 |
42.4 |
37.4 |
912.9 |
827.3 |
799.7 |
| |
| Fats, oil and greases |
19.3 |
21.9 |
19.6 |
542.9 |
655.2 |
561.1 |
| |
| Vegetables |
31.5 |
24.5 |
21.5 |
4,081.0 |
4,167.9 |
4,245.2 |
| |
| Total |
3,565.2 |
3,060.4 |
2,750.6 |
57,365.1 |
53,730.2 |
49,102.1 |
| 1/
Fiscal year ending September 30. |
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