ILLINOIS FARM REPORT RELEASED: October 13, 2000 IFR-00-14

Illinois   Agricultural   Statistics Service P.O. Box 19283, Springfield, IL 62794 Phone: (217) 492-4295 U.S. Department of Agriculture Illinois Department of Agriculture http://www.agr.state.il.us/agstats.htm

OCTOBER CROP REPORT

As of October 1, the Illinois corn for grain yield is now expected to be 155 bushels per acre, down three bushels from the previously forecast record high and one bushel below the record yield of 156 set in 1994. Production would reach 1.71 billion bushels with this yield, 15 percent more than produced in 1999. The drop in yield is primarily the result of yields not turning out as high as expected in the northern half of the state where the average yield is now estimated eight bushels below what was expected on September 1. Also contributing to the drop was damage from severe storms during the middle of September. Although the damage does not appear to have been very wide spread, a few counties near the southeastern corner of Iowa did have some fields with heavy damage. Partially offsetting the drop in northern Illinois are yields in the southern half of the state averaging five bushels higher than on September 1. The yields in many areas are turning out well above previous record levels. Harvest picked up around the middle of September and had reached 44 percent complete by October 1, ahead of last year's 39 percent and all of the last ten years with the exception of 1991 when 72 percent had been harvested.

The October 1 forecast yield for soybeans is 46 bushels per acre, down one bushel from the September 1 estimate, but still four bushels above last year and one half bushel above the 1994 record. Production is expected to total a record 471.5 million bushels, six percent above last year and two percent more than the previous record production of 1998. Temperatures across the state were near normal for most of September, but widely ranging thunderstorms in the middle of the month caused wind and rain damage to soybean fields in some areas. The crop matured about a week earlier than normal during the month, but the weather slowed down harvest to near normal rates. By month's end, 30 percent of the soybeans were harvested, compared to 28 percent last year and the five-year average of 23 percent.

The yield of sorghum for grain is forecast at 106 bushels per acre, two bushels above the September 1 forecast and 11 bushels above the 1999 yield. Production is expected to total 9.0 million bushels from an acreage of 85 thousand expected to be harvested for grain. The estimated production is two percent lower than in 1999.

The final yield estimate for the 2000 winter wheat crop is 57 bushels per acre, three bushels below last year's yield of 60, and four bushels below the record yield set in 1997. Acreage seeded in the fall of 1999 was 950 thousand acres, down ten percent from the 1.05 million acres seeded in 1998. Farmers harvested 920 thousand acres for grain this year resulting in total production of 52.4 million bushels. This was a 13 percent decrease from the 1999 production of 60.6 million bushels. The development of the crop was rapid with minimal disease problems this year due to mild temperatures and adequate moisture during the spring. By July 16, 95 percent of the crop had been harvested, compared to 97 percent at this time in 1999 and the average of 92 percent.

OCTOBER CROP REPORT - continued

The final oats estimate for 2000 places the production at 4.02 million bushels, six percent below the 1999 production. Acreage harvested for grain, at 55 thousand, was eight percent below 1999. The final yield, at 73 bushels per acre, was two bushels above last year.

The October 1 estimate for alfalfa hay yield is 4.2 tons per acre, unchanged from the August estimate but up 0.2 ton from the yield of 1999. Total production would be 2.23 million tons, up 11 percent from 1999. An estimated 530 thousand acres were cut in 2000, six percent above 1999.

All other hay production is estimated at 735 thousand tons, the same as last year. The yield of 2.1 tons per acre is 0.3 ton below the August estimate but equal to 1999. Harvested acreage, at 350 thousand, is unchanged from last year.

Corn for grain production in the United States is forecast at 10.2 billion bushels, down two percent from last month, but up eight percent from 1999. Based on October 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 139.6 bushels per acre, down 2.2 bushels from last month but up 5.8 bushels from a year ago. If realized, this would be the largest production and yield on record. The October 1 Corn Objective Yield data indicate a record level ear count for the combined seven objective yield States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio, and Wisconsin). The previous record ears per acre was set in 1999. Fields quickly ripened in the central Great Plains and most of the Corn Belt, but development was slow in Michigan and Wisconsin due to abnormally cool weather. The season's first freezing temperatures shut down plant development in the northern Great Plains and adjacent parts of the Corn Belt after mid-month. However, little damage occurred due to the advanced maturity of the corn crop.

Soybean production is forecast at a record high 2.82 billion bushels, down three percent from September 1, but six percent above 1999. The yield forecast, at 38.7 bushels per acre, decreased 0.8 bushel from last month, but is 2.1 bushels above the 1999 final yield. Acres expected for harvest were decreased by 450,000 acres in eight States due to abandonment or harvested for hay. If realized, pod counts from the October Objective Yield survey will be the highest on record in Arkansas, Illinois, and Indiana. In Missouri and Ohio, pod counts were higher than 1999 while counts in Iowa, Minnesota, and Nebraska were lower than 1999 final counts.

All wheat production totaled 2.24 billion bushels in 2000, down three percent from both the last forecast and 1999. The decline from the last forecast is the result of both acreage and yield decreases. Area harvested for grain is down two percent from the last forecast and one percent from last year. The U.S. yield is 42.1 bushels per acre, down 0.2 and 0.6 bushels from the last forecast and last season, respectively.

Cash receipts during 1999 from farm marketings of Illinois commodities decreased 16 percent from 1998 to $6.76 billion. Crop cash receipts decreased 19 percent from 1998 to $5.23 billion and livestock cash receipts decreased three percent to $1.53 billion. Corn accounted for 37.7 percent of the total cash receipts and totaled $2.55 billion, 16 percent less than during 1998. Cash receipts for soybeans were 24 percent below 1998 to $2.11 billion and accounted for 31.2 percent of the total cash receipts. Hogs cash receipts fell to $647 million, five percent less than 1998 and 9.5 percent of the total. Cattle totaled $487 million, 7.2 percent of the total cash receipts and three percent above the 1998 cash receipts.

U.S. farm production expenditures totaled $184.3 billion in 1999, up 0.6 percent from the revised 1998 total of $183.2 billion. The largest contributors to the increase were; livestock and poultry purchases, up 15.9 percent; farm improvements and construction, up 10.1 percent; labor, up 3.7 percent; and farm supplies and repairs, up 3.3 percent. These increases were partially offset by decreases in; tractors and self-propelled machinery, down 10.0 percent; rent, down 8.1 percent, and fertilizer, down 6.6 percent. The largest two expenditure categories were farm services which accounted for 13.9 percent of the U.S. total production expenses, and feed which accounted for 13.3 percent of the U.S. total production expenses. The farm services category includes expense items such as custom work, utilities, marketing charges, veterinary services, transportation costs and miscellaneous business expenses.

The Farm Production Region contributing most to the total 1999 U.S. farm production expenditures was the Corn Belt with expenses of $34.4 billion, 18.6 percent of the U.S. total. Expenditures in the Corn Belt were down 1.2 percent from the 1998 level of $34.8 billion. In total expenditures, the Corn Belt was followed by the Pacific Region at $30.9 billion (1998 - $29.0 billion); Northern Plains $23.2 billion (1998 - $22.6 billion); Lake States $18.3 billion (1998 - $19.0 billion); and the Southern Plains at $15.9 billion (1998 - $15.6 billion).

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