ILLINOIS FARM REPORT RELEASED: JANUARY 13, 1999 IFR-99-01

Illinois   Agricultural   Statistics Service P.O. Box 19283, Springfield, IL 62794 Phone: (217) 492-4295 U.S. Department of Agriculture Illinois Department of Agriculture http://www.agr.state.il.us/agstats.htm

VOL. 20, NO. 01

DECEMBER 1 GRAIN STOCKS

Illinois corn stocks on December 1, 1998 totaled 1.36 billion bushels. This is up 11 percent from a year earlier and is the highest level since 1.46 billion bushels were stored December 1, 1994. On-farm stocks, at 780 million bushels, accounted for 57 percent of the total stocks. Off-farm stocks, at 580.6 million bushels, increased 17 percent from a year earlier. Soybean stocks are at a record high with 431.8 million bushels stored in all positions on December 1, 1998. Of the total stocks, a record 234 million bushels were stored on farms, up 20 percent from 1997. Off-farm stocks, at 197.8 million bushels, were up nine percent from a year earlier. Wheat stocks totaled 35.5 million bushels on December 1, 1998. This is an increase of 32 percent from 1997 and is the highest December level since 42.2 million bushels were stored in 1983. Off-farm stocks accounted for 92 percent of the state total.

U.S. corn stocks in all positions on December 1, 1998 totaled 8.05 billion bushels, up 11 percent from December 1, 1997. Of the total stocks, 5.32 billion bushels were stored on farms, up ten percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 2.73 billion bushels, were up 13 percent from the previous year. The September-November 1998 indicated disappearance based on September 1, 1998 stocks, 1998 production, and December 1 stocks is 3.02 billion bushels, compared with 2.84 billion bushels during the same period last year. Soybeans stored in all positions on December 1, 1998, totaled 2.19 billion bushels, up nine percent from December 1, 1997. On-farm stocks, estimated at 1.19 billion bushels, were up 13 percent from the same period a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 1.00 billion bushels, were five percent higher than December 1, 1997. Indicated disappearance for the September-November 1998 quarter totaled 770 million bushels, down six percent from the same quarter in 1997. All wheat in all storage positions December 1, 1998 totaled 1.89 billion bushels, up 17 percent from a year ago to the biggest December inventory since 1990. Farm stocks are 680 million bushels and off-farm stocks equal 1.21 billion bushels. The farm number is up 13 percent while the off-farm stocks are up 19 percent. The indicated second quarter disappearance of 494 million bushels is up eight percent from the same period in 1997.

HOGS AND PIGS

The number of hogs and pigs in Illinois on December 1, 1998 was 4.85 million, three percent more than were on hand on December 1, 1997 and ten percent above December 1, 1996. This was unchanged from the number on hand on September 1, 1998 but three percent below the most recent peak in inventory seen on June 1, 1998. Breeding hogs on hand December 1, 1998 were estimated at 530 thousand head, down four percent from a year earlier, nine percent from June and two percent from September. Market hogs, at 4.32 million head, were up four percent from a year earlier, down two percent from June and up less than one percent from September.

The pig crop during September, October and November of 1998 was 2.021 million, unchanged from the same period in 1997 but up ten percent from the same period in 1996. There were 235 thousand sows that farrowed, five thousand fewer than a year earlier. The litter rate for the quarter averaged 8.6 pigs saved per litter, which equals the record level attained for each quarter over the last 12 months, but up from the average of 8.4 during September through November of 1997.

Farrowing intentions for the December 1, 1998 through February 1, 1999 quarter is 220 thousand, five thousand sows fewer than actual farrowings during the same period a year earlier. The first estimate of intentions for the March through May quarter of 1999 is for 210 thousand sows to farrow, 45 thousand fewer than in the same quarter in 1998.

U.S. inventory of all hogs and pigs on December 1, 1998 was 62.2 million head. This was two percent above December 1, 1997, but two percent below September 1, 1998. Breeding inventory, at 6.67 million head, was down four percent from December 1, 1997 and down three percent from September 1, 1998. Market hog inventory, at 55.5 million head, was two percent above a year earlier, but two percent below the previous quarter.

The September-November 1998 U.S. pig crop, at 25.9 million head, was two percent more than 1997 and 11 percent more than 1996. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 2.99 million head, two percent above the previous year. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 43 percent of the breeding herd. The average pigs per litter fell to an average of 8.65 pigs saved per litter for the September-November period, compared to 8.67 pigs last year. Pigs saved per litter by size of operation ranged from 7.20 for operations with 1-99 hogs to 8.90 for operations with more than 5,000 hogs.

U.S. hog producers intend to have 2.89 million sows farrow during the December 1998-February 1999 quarter, one percent below the actual farrowings during the same period in 1998 but eight percent above 1997. Intended farrowings for March through May of 1999, at 2.88 million sows, are seven percent below the same period a year earlier and one percent below 1997.

The number of hog operations totaled 114,380 during 1998, down six percent from a year earlier and 20 percent below 1996. Places with 2,000 or more hogs on hand accounted for six percent of the operations and 64 percent of the inventory. The number of operations with over 5,000 head of inventory, at 1,915 accounted for 42 percent of the total inventory. The total number of hogs under contract, owned by operations over 5,000 head, but raised by contractees, accounted for 23 percent of the total U.S. hog inventory.

December prices received by Illinois farmers for all commodities decreased three points from the revised November figure and was 29 points below December 1997 to 78 percent of the base. The current year's base is computed by multiplying the average production for the five-year period by the average price for each year. These five years are summed and then divided by five to arrive at an average (base) for the period. The current five-year average production is then multiplied by the current price and divided by the average for the five years to arrive at the current index. The December all crops index, at 82 percent of the base, decreased three points from last month and is 28 points lower than December 1997. The price of corn, sorghum and wheat increased, while the price of soybeans and oats decreased slightly. The all livestock index continued to decline and is at 66 percent of the base. This is three points less than November 1998 and 35 points lower than December 1997. Prices increased for beef cattle, steers and heifers and milk. The hog-corn ratio, at 6.6, decreased 1.4 points from last month.

The U.S. All Farm Products Index of Prices Received in December was 98 based on 1990-92=100, down two points from November. Price decreases from November for cattle, hogs, broilers and soybeans more than offset price increases for corn, milk, tomatoes and eggs. The seasonal changes in the mix of commodities farmers sell also affect the overall index level; however, these changes were essentially offsetting in December. Compared with December 1997, the All Farm Products Index was seven points lower. Price decreases from December 1997 for hogs, corn, cattle and soybeans more than offset price increases for milk, broilers, oranges and tomatoes.

In Illinois, an estimated 1.05 million acres of winter wheat was seeded in the fall of 1998. This is 16 percent less than in 1997 and the lowest acreage since 850 thousand acres were seeded in the fall of 1984. The condition of the crop as of January 1, 1999 was rated two percent very poor, two percent poor, 24 percent fair, 61 percent good and 11 percent excellent.

U.S. winter wheat planted for harvest in 1999 is estimated at 43.4 million acres. This is down seven percent from 1998 and is the lowest level since 1972. Seeding started last August in the Pacific Northwest, some Mountain states and Minnesota. Progress moved forward sporadically through the fall, hampered by dryness in some locations and wetness in others. About 99 percent of the U.S. acreage was seeded by December 1.

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