ILLINOIS
FARM REPORT


RELEASED: NOVEMBER 12, 1999 IFR-99-15
NASS Logo   Illinois
  Agricultural
  Statistics Service
P.O. Box 19283, Springfield, IL 62794
Phone: (217) 492-4295
U.S. Department of Agriculture
Illinois Department of Agriculture

http://www.agr.state.il.us/agstats.htm

VOL. 20, NO. 15
Highlights
November Grain Stocks
Milk Production
Agricultural Prices


November Crop Report

The 1999 Illinois corn yield is estimated at 146 bushels per acre, unchanged from the October 1 forecast and five bushels above the 1998 yield. Production would total 1.555 billion bushels, six percent above last year. Farmers took advantage of the dry conditions during October to harvest the crop at a rapid pace. As of November 7, 98 percent of the crop had been harvested. This compares to 91 percent last year and represents the largest percent harvested since 1991, for this time period.

The yield for the Illinois soybean crop is up one bushel from last month's forecast at 43 bushels per acre, one bushel below the 1998 yield. Production would be 462.3 million bushels, fractionally less than last year's record 464.2 million bushels. The crop entered the month of October with 34 percent harvested by October 3. Near ideal harvest conditions during the month helped harvest progress ahead of normal to the point that 98 percent of the crop was harvested by October 31.

U.S. corn for grain production is forecast at 9.54 billion bushels, up one percent from last month but down two percent from 1998. Based on November 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 134.5 bushels per acre, up 1.0 bushel from last month and up 0.1 bushel from a year ago. If realized, this would be the third largest production and the second highest yield on record. Acreage harvested and to be harvested for grain is forecast at 70.9 million acres, unchanged from last month. The November 1 Corn Objective Yield data indicate a record level ear count for the combined seven objective yield states (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio, and Wisconsin). The previous record ears per acre was set in 1998. As of October 31, 89 percent of the acreage was harvested in the 17 major states. This compares with 81 percent last year and 72 percent for the five-year average.

U.S. soybean production is forecast at 2.67 billion bushels, down one percent from October 1 and down two percent from last year's record of 2.74 billion bushels. The yield forecast, at 36.7 bushels per acre, decreased 0.3 bushels from last month and is 2.2 bushels below the 1998 final yield. Growers expect to harvest 72.8 million acres of soybeans, unchanged from the October forecast but three percent above 1998 final harvested acreage. If realized, pod counts from the November Objective Yield survey will be the highest on record in Iowa and Nebraska. All other objective yield States, except for Minnesota, were showing fewer pods than last November and 1998 final counts. Harvest progress during October advanced at a very fast pace as near ideal conditions prevailed in most areas of the Corn Belt, Great Plains and Delta region. As of October 31, 93 percent of the soybeans had been harvested, five percentage points ahead of 1998 and seven percentage points ahead of the average.

PRINCIPAL CROPS ACREAGE AND PRODUCTION
Crop
(Acres for Harvest)
Illinois United States
1998 1999 1998 1999
  Acreage and production in thousands
Corn, grain
Acres 10,450 10,650 72,604 70,925
Yield, bu. 141.0 146.0 134.4 134.5
Production 1,473,450 1,554,900 9,761,085 9,537,137
Soybeans
Acres 10,550 10,750 70,441 72,786
Yield, bu. 44.0 43.0 38.9 36.7
Production 464,200 462,250 2,741,014 2,672,972
Sorghum, grain
Acres 107 97 7,723 8,499
Yield, bu. 74.0 90.0 67.3 70.2
Production 7,918 8,730 519,933 596,482
Winter Wheat
Acres 1,200 1,010 40,126 35,542
Yield, bu. 48.0 60.0 46.9 47.8
Production 57,600 60,600 1,880,605 1,698,369
Oats, grain
Acres 70 60 2,755 2,465
Yield, bu. 56.0 71.0 60.2 60.0
Production 3,920 4,260 165,981 147,906
Rye
Acres 9 7 418 383
Yield, bu. 37.0 29.0 28.2 28.7
Production 333 203 11,795 10,993
Alfalfa Hay
Acres 600 500 23,642 23,968
Yield, tons 4.20 3.90 3.47 3.57
Production 2,520 1,950 82,010 85,487
All Other Hay
Acres 350 350 36,374 38,083
Yield, tons 2.50 2.50 1.91 1.99
Production 875 875 69,328 75,898
Snap Beans 1/
Acres 10,800 13,500 187,800 190,730
Yield, tons 3.13 3.35 3.71 3.83
Production 34,730 45,225 698,460 730,950
Sweet Corn 1/
Acres 14,500 16,100 459,000 442,200
Yield, tons 6.20 5.90 6.96 7.17
Production 89,900 94,990 3,201,460 3,169,840
Apples
Mil. lbs. 45.0 75.0 11,387.4 10,614.8
Peaches
Mil. lbs. 15.0 17.5 2,429.3 2,502.1
1/ Contract for processing only.

CORN, 1998 & NOVEMBER 1, 1999 FORECAST
District and
State
Acres Planted Acres for Grain Probable Yield Production
1998 1999 1998 1999 1998 1999 1998 1999
  1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Bushels 1,000 Bushels
Northwest 1,670 1,690 1,632 1,655 157 157 256,225.0 259,835
Northeast 1,080 1,110 1,065 1,090 155 141 165,076.9 153,690
West 1,060 1,070 1,048 1,055 143 147 149,871.6 155,085
Central 1,520 1,480 1,511 1,465 149 167 225,130.4 244,655
East 1,520 1,520 1,511 1,505 136 164 205,468.0 246,820
W. Southwest 1,400 1,400 1,383 1,385 141 149 195,030.0 206,365
E. Southeast 1,370 1,460 1,350 1,445 128 129 172,798.8 186,405
Southwest 470 510 450 500 113 104 50,848.3 51,995
Southeast 510 560 500 550 106 915 3,001.0 50,050
ILLINOIS 10,600 10,800 10,450 10,650 141 146 1,473,450.0 1,554,900

SOYBEANS, 1998 & NOVEMBER 1, 1999 FORECAST
District and
State
Acres Planted Acres for Grain Probable Yield Production
1998 1999 1998 1999 1998 1999 1998 1999
  1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Bushels 1,000 Bushels
Northwest 1,070 1,110 1,067 1,105 53.0 52 56,562.60 57,460
Northeast 960 950 958 945 49.0 42 46,960.35 39,690
West 990 990 988 985 48.0 45 47,417.25 44,325
Central 1,420 1,500 1,414 1,495 49.0 49 69,279.40 73,255
East 1,500 1,480 1,491 1,475 42.5 49 63,370.70 72,275
W. Southwest 1,440 1,530 1,428 1,525 44.5 44 63,553.15 67,100
E. Southeast 1,650 1,630 1,643 1,620 39.0 41 64,061.05 66,420
Southwest 770 820 764 815 35.0 30 26,722.10 24,455
Southeast 800 790 797 785 33.0 22 26,273.40 17,270
ILLINOIS 10,600 10,800 10,550 10,750 44.0 43 464,200.00 462,250


Milk Production

Milk production in Illinois totaled 157 million pounds in September 1999, a four percent decrease from September 1998. Milk per cow averaged 1,300 pounds, 20 pounds more than last year. The number of milk cows on farms decreased from 127,000 head in September 1998 to 121,000 head in September 1999.

Milk production in the 20 major producing states during September 1999 totaled 11.2 billion pounds, up five percent from September 1998. The production per cow averaged 1,449 pounds, also up five percent from last year. The number of milk cows on farms was up 52,000 head from September 1998, to 7.753 million head.

MILK PRODUCTION: ILLINOIS & 20 STATES, SEPTEMBER 1998-99
  September
Illinois 20 States
1998 1999 99 as % of 98 1998 1999 99 as % of 98
Milk Production:
Number of milk cows Head (000) 127 121 95 7,701 7,701 101
Milk production per cow Lbs. 1,280 1,300 102 1,386 1,449 105
Total milk production Mil. lbs. 163 157 96 10,672 11,235 105


Agricultural Prices

October prices received by Illinois farmers for all commodities increased from last month and is at 75 percent of the base. This is one point more than the revised September figure but seven points less than October 1998. The current year's base is computed by multiplying the average production for the five-year period by the average price for each year. These five years are summed and then divided by five to arrive at an average (base) for the period. The current five-year average production is then multiplied by the current price and divided by the average for the five years to arrive at the current index. The October all crops index, at 71 percent of the base, is one point more than the revised September figure but 13 points less than October 1998. Prices decreased for corn, soybeans, sorghum, wheat and oats. The all livestock index increased three points from the previous month and is at 89 percent of the base. This is 11 points more than October 1998. The price of hogs decreased, while the price of cattle, calves and milk all increased. The hog-corn ratio increased to 18.1.

The preliminary U.S. All Farm Products Index of Prices Received in October was 92 based on 1990-92=100, down five points from the September index. The seasonal change in the mix of commodities farmers sell affect the overall index. Lower seasonal marketings of milk, wheat, tobacco and grapes more than offset the relatively higher marketings of soybeans, corn, cotton lint and cottonseed. These marketing changes decreased the index four points. Price decreases from September account for one point of the decline. Lower prices for broilers, corn, milk and eggs more than offset price increases for cattle, tobacco, oranges and cucumbers. Compared with October 1998, the All Farm Products Index was seven points lower. Price decreases from October 1998 for soybeans, broilers, milk and corn more than offset price increases for cattle, calves, hogs and oranges.

INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED BY FARMERS
Commodity September
1998
October
1998
September
1999
October 15,
1999
  1992-96=100 1993-97=100
ILLINOIS
All Farm Products   78   82   74*   75
All Crops   78   84   70*   71
Food grains   57   59   59*   56
Feed grains/hay   74   82   70*   69
Soybeans   84   88   71*   74
All Livestock   78   78   86*   89
Meat animals   71   69   80*   82
Dairy products 114 122 115* 124
 
  1990-92=100
UNITED STATES
Prices Received   99   99   97*   92
All Crops 100 100   95*   88
Food grains   88 100   88*   87
Feed grains/hay   86   85   81*   75
Oilseeds   93   93   83*   81
All Livestock   98   98   98*   97
Meat animals   73   75   84*   87
Dairy products 129 136 121* 119
Prices Paid 115 114 116* 116
Parity Ratio 1/   86   87   84*   79
1/ Prices received index divided by prices paid index.
* Revised.


PRICES RECEIVED BY FARMERS 1/
Commodity Unit Illinois United States
Sept.,
1998
Oct.,
1998
Sept.,
1999
Oct. 15,
1999
Sept.,
1998
Oct.,
1998
Sept.,
1999
Oct. 15,
1999
  Dollars
Corn Bushels 1.88 1.99 1.85   1.75 1.83 1.91 1.75* 1.66
Soybeans Bushels 5.31 5.26 4.66* 4.65 5.25 5.18 4.57* 4.49
Sorghum Cwt. 3/ 3/ 3.17* 3.00 2.91 2.96 2.82* 2.58
Wheat, all Bushels 1.99 2.09 2.10   2.00 2.39 2.77 2.57* 2.49
Oats Bushels 1.15 1.42 1.35* 1.30 1.07 1.09 1.08* 1.08
Hay, all, baled Tons 82.00 84.00 75.00   78.00 85.00 83.80 74.50* 73.70
Alfalfa hay, bld Tons 85.00 89.00 80.00   82.00 87.10 86.90 77.30* 76.00
Other hay, bld Tons 65.00 66.00 55.00   62.00 74.90 70.40 63.70* 64.70
Hogs, all Cwt. 27.70 25.30 31.90* 31.70 29.50 27.80 33.70* 34.10
Barrows, Gilts Cwt. 28.60 26.00 32.80* 32.40 30.10 28.20 34.20* 34.60
Sows Cwt. 17.10 18.20 22.10* 23.50 18.20 18.80 23.00* 24.20
Beef cattle Cwt. 56.30 57.70 63.30* 64.40 56.10 58.00 63.80* 66.10
Cows Cwt. 33.00 31.10 34.80* 35.00 32.60 30.50 34.60* 34.50
Steers, Heifers Cwt. 56.80 58.30 63.90* 65.00 58.90 61.40 67.10* 70.10
Calves Cwt. 94.00 95.00 111.00* 112.00 74.10 75.70 90.90* 92.00
Milk cows Head   1,170.00 2/   1,350.00 2/ 1,180.00 2/   1,380.00
Milk, all Cwt. 15.70 16.80 15.40* 17.10 16.70 17.70 15.80* 15.50
Milk, fluid Cwt. 15.70 16.80 15.30   3/ 16.80 17.80 15.80* 15.60
Milk, mfg. Cwt. 15.90 17.60 16.90   3/ 15.40 16.80 15.20* 13.60
Hog-corn ratio   14.7 12.7 17.2* 18.1 16.1 14.6 19.3* 20.5

1/ Prices received represent the average of all grades or classes at point of first sale and
    should not be confused with market quotations.
2/ Estimated in January, April, July, and October.
3/ State prices not published.
* Revised.


Prices Received Index


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The Illinois Agricultural Statistics Service has a home page at:

http://www.agr.state.il.us/agstats.htm

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There you can find reports issued by NASS as well as links to state statistical offices. You will also find many charts showing long term trends in agriculture.


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