in-crop-weather State Indiana Crop Weather Week Ending Date October 31, 2004 Issue IN-CW4404 Agricultural Summary showers during the week slowed harvesting activities in some areas of the state, according to Indiana Agricultural Statistics. Strong winds during the weekend caused lodging in some corn fields. Many farmers have finished harvesting their soybean fields and some have completed harvesting of corn. Corn harvest is 3 days ahead of the average pace. Soybean harvest is on par with both last year and the average pace. Many farmers continued to visit their local FSA offices to fill out forms for LDP'S. Field Crops Report There were 3.5 days suitable for fieldwork. Eighty percent of the corn acreage is harvested compared with 63 percent last year and 74 percent for the average. By area, 74 percent of the corn acreage is harvested in the north, 84 percent in the central region and 86 percent in the south. Moisture content of harvested corn is averaging about 17 percent. Virtually all of the soybean acreage is now mature, except for some very late planted fields and soybeans planted in drowned out areas. Ninety percent of the soybean acreage is harvested compared with 90 percent last year and 90 percent for the average. By area, 92 percent of the soybean acreage is harvested in the north, 96 percent in the central region and 77 percent in the south. Moisture content of harvested soybeans is averaging about 12.0 percent. Eighty-two percent of the winter wheat acreage is planted compared with 92 percent last year and 90 percent for the average pace. By area, 95 percent of the winter wheat acreage is planted in the north, 89 percent in the central region and 68 percent in the south. Sixty-two percent of the winter wheat acreage is emerged compared with 69 percent last year and 69 percent for the average pace. Other activities during the week were spreading fertilizer and lime, chopping corn stalks, moving grain to market, fall tillage, cleaning up and repairing equipment, stripping tobacco, hauling manure and taking care of livestock. Livestock, Pasture and Range Report Pasture condition is rated 3 percent excellent, 35 percent good, 40 percent fair, 18 percent poor and 4 percent very poor. Pastures have "greened up" and improved recently. Livestock are in mostly good condition. Crop Progress Table ----------------------------------------------------- : This : Last : Last : 5-Year Crop : Week : Week : Year : Avg ----------------------------------------------------- Percent Corn Harvested 80 72 63 74 Soybeans Harvested 90 87 90 90 Winter Wheat Planted 82 76 92 90 Winter Wheat Emerged 62 44 69 69 Crop Condition Table ----------------------------------------------------- : Very : : : : Excel- Crop : Poor : Poor : Fair : Good : lent ----------------------------------------------------- Percent Wheat 1 2 34 53 10 Pasture 4 18 40 35 3 Soil Moisture & Days Suitable for Fieldwork Table -------------------------------------- : This : Last : Last : : Week : Week : Year : -------------------------------------- Percent Topsoil Very Short 1 1 0 Short 6 11 6 Adequate 73 72 83 Surplus 20 16 11 Subsoil Very Short 2 4 4 Short 20 26 10 Adequate 72 66 78 Surplus 6 4 8 Days Suitable 3.5 2.8 5.1 Contact information --Greg Preston, Director --Bud Bever, Agricultural Statistician E-Mail Address: nass-in@nass.usda.gov http://www.nass.usda.gov/in/index.htm --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Rethinking Rotations: More Corn and Less Soybean in the Corn Belt? Many Corn-Belt farmers I have had contact with during this past year have discussed switching away from the traditional 50% corn and 50% soybean rotation to something involving a higher percentage of their land area in corn. Some farmers simply intend to have some of their acreage (e. g., the fields with the highest corn yields)in a rotation of 2 years corn, 1 year in soybean while keeping most of their acreage in the traditional corn-soybean rotation. Other farmers want to switch all of their fields into a rotation of 2 years corn and a single year of soybean. Still other farmers are very intrigued about continuous corn production. Some common reasons I am given by cash-crop farmers for considering more corn after corn are: 1. The soybean yields on my farm in recent years have been disappointing. 2. In the one field where my neighbor grew corn after corn, yields went over 200 bushels per acre in 2004. 3. With high cash rents for land, and corn yields approaching 200 bushels per acre, corn production is simply more profitable than soybean production. 4. It is easier to complete harvest in a timely fashion with a higher percentage of corn in the acreage mix (because of the increased number of days, in the fall of the year, that a farmer can harvest corn versus soybean). 5. Some record corn yields have "apparently" been achieved by other Corn-Belt farmers in continuous corn production systems. 6. There is a lower yield risk with corn versus soybean. 7. The increased capacity for soybean production in South America means that the long-term prospects for maintaining competitive marketing prices for commodity soybean are less likely than for corn. 8. Rootworm management (whether with transgenic hybrids or insecticides) is just as costly for corn after soybean as it is for corn after corn in a progressively bigger portion of the Corn Belt each year. 9. Today's corn hybrids are more stress tolerant than those of 20 or 30 years ago. 10. Unlike the situation in the 1970's, continuous corn production in 2005 doesn't have to lead to poor soil structure. Space doesn't permit addressing the validity of all of the reasons above. Some are more speculative than others. One that is not mentioned, but which may be valid, is that soybean yields may increase if it were planted every third or fourth year rather than every second year. However, the rotation yield advantage one assumes for corn after soybean is perhaps the key factor in making the economic decisions about rotation changes. One common question from farmers who are rethinking their rotation is whether the accepted standard of a 10% yield reduction for corn after corn still applies today. My first answer to the latter question (and to some doubters) is that the rotation yield advantage for corn is still just as evident today as it was 10 or 30 years ago. My second answer is that the rotation yield advantage for corn after soybean versus corn after corn has always been dependent on the tillage system that is being assumed. My third answer is that even when corn yields are over 200 bushels per acre, the extent of the rotation advantage can still be the same as for corn yielding less than 150 bushels per acre. The long-term data from two ongoing experiments in Indiana provide some solid evidence for the 3 conclusions above. In Table 1, which summarizes results from a 30-year study on a dark prairie soil with high organic matter, the rotation advantage ranged from 5% in a moldboard plow system to 18% in a no-till system. Even in 2004, a year with above-normal yields, the rotation advantage was still from 5 to 16% depending on tillage system. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 1. Corn Yields Responses* to Tillage and Rotation from 1975 to 2004 in West Lafayette, Indiana (Chalmers silty clay loam) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- | 1975-2003 | 2004 | Yield Gain for | | | Rotation (%) Tillage System |--------------------------------------------------- | Corn/ | Cont. | Corn/ | Cont. | 1975- | | Soy | Corn | Soy | Corn | 2003 | 2004 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------Yield (bu/acre)---------------- Moldboard Plow 176.4 168.5 213 201 5 6 Chisel Plow 176.9 164.0 209 198 8 5 No-till 172.5 146.2 207 179 18 16 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- *Yield data from a cooperative project involving T.D. West, T.J. Vyn and G. Steinhardt of the Agronomy Department ----------------------------------------------------------------------- In Table 2, results from an 8-year study in Northern Indiana again confirm the 8 to 14% yield advantage for corn after soybean instead of corn after corn. In 2004, even when corn after corn yielded around 210 bushels per acre, there still was a 20 bushel (or 9-11%) yield advantage for corn after soybean. Yes, it is hard to fault a farmer's management when he or she achieves yields of 210 bushels per acre. But from my perspective, 230 bushels is still more profitable than 210 bushels. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 2. Corn Yields Responses* to Tillage and Rotation from 1977 to 2004 in Wanatah, Indiana (Sebewa loam) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- | 1977-2003 | 2004 | Yield Gain for | | | Rotation (%) Tillage System |--------------------------------------------------- | Corn/ | Cont. | Corn/ | Cont. | 1977- | | Soy | Corn | Soy | Corn | 2003 | 2004 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------Yield (bu/acre)---------------- Fall Chisel 188 174 230 210 8 9 Fall Disk 189 170 234 211 11 11 No-till 184 161 214 206 14 9 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- *Yield data from a cooperative project involving T.D. West, T.J. Vyn and G. Steinhardt of the Agronomy Department ----------------------------------------------------------------------- The information in both Tables 1 and 2 also emphasize that there is more need for tillage when corn follows corn than when corn follows soybean in sequence. In fact, other than the economic cost of reduced yield, the biggest economic loss associated with corn after corn is that it virtually rules out a no-till system. Moldboard plowing may become more commonplace in the Corn Belt simply because it is such an attractive option for corn after corn on high clay and high organic matter, poorly drained soils. But such a development would involve its own short-term and long-term costs. The short-term costs include equipment depreciation, fuel, and time; the long-term costs include more soil erosion and reduction in future crop productivity. Chisel plowing is not much better; it still leaves just 20 to 25% surface residue cover after planting for corn after corn. Another economic cost of corn after corn is simply the cost of the additional N fertilizer. Recommended N rates are at least 40 pounds per acre higher for corn after grain corn than for corn after soybean. Some conservation-minded corn farmers have asked about fall strip tillage for corn after corn. Indeed, our experiments show that strip tillage can yield superior to no-till and just as well as chisel plowing for corn after corn (data not shown). Similar strip tillage operations after soybean have not tended to result in higher yields than the no-till system, though they have enabled much earlier planting in spring and accelerated early growth of corn relative to no-till corn. But even so, corn after corn means more tillage. Furthermore, more tillage also means generally later fall tillage operations than would be the case after soybean harvest. There are many other agronomic issues involved for the best possible management in corn after corn. For instance, in corn after corn systems, hybrid selection needs to involve much more attention to susceptibility to certain foliar diseases that can increase without rotation. But before Corn-Belt farmers concern themselves with the details, they should consider the major costs of switching to a more corn dominant rotation. Summary: Even with the high yields achieved in Indiana in 2004, corn in rotation with soybean yielded from 5 to 15%higher than corn after corn. These increases in corn yield for rotation are in line with those for the last 30 years. Any rethinking of corn-soybean rotations in the Corn Belt must be done with an accurate assessment of the overall costs. Chief among the increased costs that need to be considered for corn after corn are: 1. Yield loss (e.g., 11 to 23 bushels per acre in 2004 alone) 2. Higher tillage costs (no-till no longer possible) 3. Associated higher soil erosion costs 4. Higher optimum nitrogen fertilizer rates 5. Higher pest control costs My advice: Think very hard, and consider all the costs for any changes in rotations. --Tony J. Vyn, Agronomy Department, Purdue University --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Weather Information Table Week ending Sunday October 31, 2004 ----------------------------------------------------- | Past Week Weather Summary Data |--------------------------------- Station | Air | | Avg | Temperature | Precip. |4 in. |---------------|------------|Soil |Hi |Lo |Avg|DFN|Total |Days |Temp ----------------------------------------------------- Northwest (1) Chalmers_5W 78 39 59 +10 0.64 3 56 Valparaiso_AP_I 78 37 59 +12 0.10 2 Wanatah 79 34 57 +10 0.10 2 59 Wheatfield 79 38 58 +12 0.00 0 Winamac 78 39 59 +13 0.52 3 55 North Central (2) Plymouth 77 37 57 +10 0.27 1 South_Bend 76 36 60 +13 0.25 2 Young_America 78 41 59 +12 0.52 3 Northeast (3) Columbia_City 75 35 57 +11 0.31 3 56 Fort_Wayne 75 37 60 +12 0.44 3 West Central (4) Greencastle 77 38 59 +10 0.50 3 Perrysville 80 39 60 +12 0.78 4 61 Spencer_Ag 79 42 61 +12 0.81 3 Terre_Haute_AFB 78 42 62 +13 0.03 1 W_Lafayette_6NW 78 36 58 +11 0.77 3 60 Central (5) Eagle_Creek_AP 77 41 62 +13 0.35 4 Greenfield 78 40 58 +10 0.45 4 Indianapolis_AP 77 44 62 +13 0.44 4 Indianapolis_SE 77 41 60 +11 0.55 3 Tipton_Ag 77 40 59 +12 0.70 3 61 East Central (6) Farmland 77 37 58 +12 0.66 4 50 New_Castle 77 37 58 +11 0.09 2 Southwest (7) Evansville 82 46 66 +14 1.56 5 Freelandville 77 46 62 +12 1.44 3 Shoals 80 43 63 +13 1.52 2 Stendal 81 42 65 +14 1.20 4 Vincennes_5NE 79 46 63 +13 1.76 4 60 South Central (8) Leavenworth 80 44 63 +13 2.06 5 Oolitic 79 41 61 +13 0.84 2 61 Tell_City 81 48 65 +13 1.16 4 Southeast (9) Brookville 80 39 61 +13 0.21 3 Milan_5NE 78 41 60 +12 0.48 3 Scottsburg 79 40 61 +11 0.87 4 ----------------------------------------------------- Weather Information Table (Continued) Week ending Sunday October 31, 2004 ----------------|-------------------------------- | Accumulation |-------------------------------- | April 1, 2004 thru Station | October 31, 2004 |-------------------------------- | Precipitation |GDD Base 50oF |-------------------------------- | | | | | |Total | DFN |Days|Total| DFN ------------------------------------------------- Northwest (1) Chalmers_5W 32.76 +8.11 70 3087 -124 Valparaiso_AP_I 22.68 -4.53 73 2911 -29 Wanatah 24.58 -1.42 81 2658 -128 Wheatfield 39.60 +14.61 79 2808 -33 Winamac 31.80 +6.70 87 2943 +11 North Central (2) Plymouth 28.91 +3.00 83 2818 -272 South_Bend 24.30 -1.02 82 3020 +124 Young_America 29.97 +5.51 74 3084 +56 Northeast (3) Columbia_City 26.60 +2.21 85 2815 +54 Fort_Wayne 27.40 +5.04 80 3075 +32 West Central (4) Greencastle 27.16 -0.97 78 3035 -419 Perrysville 25.09 -1.05 66 3352 +151 Spencer_Ag 32.38 +4.31 83 3278 +58 Terre_Haute_AFB 23.70 -2.75 73 3596 +169 W_Lafayette_6NW 26.02 +1.23 60 3047 +18 Central (5) Eagle_Creek_AP 23.34 -1.43 77 3502 +111 Greenfield 26.55 -0.65 76 3259 +1 Indianapolis_AP 31.43 +6.66 73 3614 +223 Indianapolis_SE 25.59 +0.13 65 3310 -74 Tipton_Ag 26.39 +0.81 79 2974 +46 East Central (6) Farmland 24.40 +0.00 74 3003 +149 New_Castle 25.51 -0.62 57 2676 -251 Southwest (7) Evansville 27.35 +2.13 66 4136 +184 Freelandville 31.57 +5.37 69 3641 +99 Shoals 33.81 +5.45 72 3656 +221 Stendal 32.01 +4.01 68 3921 +212 Vincennes_5NE 31.71 +5.51 81 3793 +251 South Central (8) Leavenworth 38.60 +10.06 80 3707 +297 Oolitic 33.77 +6.41 82 3451 +186 Tell_City 35.97 +7.41 67 4232 +399 Southeast (9) Brookville 23.66 -2.60 66 3488 +396 Milan_5NE 32.50 +6.24 104 3395 +303 Scottsburg 39.96 +12.98 73 3522 -4 ------------------------------------------------------------------ DFN = Departure From Normal (Using 1961-90 Normals Period). GDD = Growing Degree Days. Precipitation (Rainfall or melted snow/ice) in inches. Precipitation Days = Days with precip of .01 inch or more. Air Temperatures in Degrees Fahrenheit. Copyright 2004: AWIS, Inc. All rights reserved. The above weather information is provided by AWIS, Inc. For detailed ag weather forecasts and data visit the AWIS home page at www.awis.com or call toll free at 1-888-798-9955.