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CATTLE

KANSAS AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS
Kansas Department of Agriculture
PO Box 3534
Topeka, KS 66601-3534
Phone: 785-233-2230

Released: January 29, 1999

KANSAS CATTLE INVENTORY
UNCHANGED

All cattle and calves on farms and ranches in Kansas on January 1, 1999 totaled 6.55 million head (see table 1), unchanged from the 6.55 million head last year, according to Kansas Agricultural Statistics. All cows and heifers that have calved, at 1.59 million, were up 3 percent from a year earlier. Beef cow inventories were estimated at 1.506 million, up 3 percent from last year's level of 1.461 million head. Milk cows, at 84,000 head, were up 6 percent when compared to the January 1, 1998 level. Bulls over 500 pounds totaled 85,000 head, up 6 percent from last year. Beef replacement heifers, at 250,000 head, were up 9 percent from the previous year's figure, while milk cow replacements, at 45,000 head, were up 13 percent. Other heifers over 500 pounds increased 1 percent from last year's revised level of 1.44 million head to 1.45 million head. Steers over 500 pounds, at 2.26 million head, were down 5 percent from the previous year's revised number. Calves under 500 pounds totaled 870,000 head, up 4 percent from the January 1, 1998 revised figure of 840,000 head. The 1998 calf crop, at 1.45 million head, was up 1 percent from last year's revised 1.43 million head. During 1998, a total of 37,000 cattle farms, 29,000 beef cow farms, and 1,400 milk cow farms were operating in Kansas
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U.S. REVISIONS

Final estimates for the production years 1994 through 1998 were published in the Cattle-Final Estimates 1994-98, Statistical Bulletin No. 953. Data included in that publication provide a historic record and a benchmark for current estimates.

U.S. CATTLE INVENTORY DOWN

United States: All cattle and calves in the United States as of January 1, 1999, totaled 98.5 million head, 1 percent below the 99.7 million on January 1, 1998 and 3 percent below the 101.7 million two years ago. All cows and heifers that have calved, at 42.6 million, were 1 percent below the 43.1 million on January 1, 1998 and 3 percent below the 43.8 million two years ago. Beef cows, at 33.5 million, were down 1 percent from January 1, 1998 and 3 percent below two years ago. Milk cows, at 9.14 million, were down 1 percent from January 1, 1998 and 2 percent below two years ago. Other class estimates on January 1, 1999, and the changes from January 1 last year and two years ago, respectively, are as follows: all heifers 500 pounds and over, 19.6 million, down 1 percent and down 3 percent; beef replacement heifers, 5.55 million, down 4 percent and down 8 percent; milk replacement heifers, 4.06 million, up 2 percent and slightly above two years ago; other heifers, 9.99 million, down 1 percent and down 2 percent; steers weighing 500 pounds and over, 16.8 million, down 2 percent and down 3 percent; bulls weighing 500 pounds and over, 2.28 million, slightly above and down 3 percent; calves under 500 pounds, 17.2 million, down 1 percent and down 4 percent; and all cattle and calves on feed for slaughter, 13.2 million, down 3 percent and slightly above two years ago. The 1998 calf crop was estimated at 38.6 million head, down 1 percent from 1997 and down 3 percent from 1996.

Calves born during the first half of the year are estimated at 28.4 million, down 1 percent from 1997 and down 3 percent from 1996.

The number of operations with cattle totaled 1,115,650 during 1998, down 3 percent from 1997 and 5 percent below 1996. Beef cow operations in 1998 were down 2 percent from 1997 and 3 percent below 1996. Milk cow operations were 6 percent below last year and 11 percent below two years ago.

Table 1-- CATTLE AND CALVES: NUMBER BY CLASS, CALF CROP, AND OPERATIONS, JAN. 1, 1997-99
Class
1997 1998 1999 % of
Prev. Yr.

KANSAS 		1,000 Head
Cattle and Calves 6,600 6,550 6,550 100
Cows & Heifers That Have Calved 1,590 1,540 1,590 103
Beef Cows 1,509 1,461 1,506 103
Milk Cows 81 79 84 106
Heifers 500 Pounds & Over 1,695 1,710 1,745 102
For Beef Cow Replacement 220 230 250 109
For Milk cow Replacement 45 40 45 113
Other Heifers 1,430 1,440 1,450 101
Steers 500 Pounds & Over 2,370 2,380 2,260 95
Bulls 500 Pounds & Over 85 80 85 106
Calves Under 500 Pounds 860 840 870 104
Calf Crop 1/ 1,460 1,430 1,450 101
Number
Operations with Cattle 37,000 37,000
Operations with Beef Cows 29,000 29,000
Operations with Milk Cows 1,500 1,400
UNITED STATES 1,000 Head
Cattle and Calves 101,656 99,744 98,522 99
Cows & Heifers That Have Calved 43,776 43,084 42,615 99
Beef Cows 34,458 33,885 33,472 99
Milk Cows 9,318 9,199 9,143 99
Heifers 500 Pounds & Over 20,312 19,800 19,604 99
For Beef Cow Replacement 6,042 5,764 5,550 96
For Milk cow Replacement 4,058 3,986 4,060 102
Other Heifers 10,212 10,051 9,994 99
Steers 500 Pounds & Over 17,392 17,189 16,836 98
Bulls 500 Pounds & Over 2,350 2,270 2,276 100
Calves Under 500 Pounds 17,826 17,401 17,190 99
Calf Crop 1/ 39,823 38,961 38,582 99
Number
Operations with Cattle 1,148,050 1,115,650
Operations with Beef Cows 872,840 855,860
Operations with Milk Cows 123,700 116,430
1/ Calf crop is for the previous year.

AGRICULTURE-RELATED INFORMATION

The following estimates, forecasts, and projections are mainly taken from recent publications of the National Agricultural Statistics Service, Economic Research Service, and the World Agricultural Outlook Board of the USDA.

.Wheat. Winter wheat seeded area for 1999 is expected to total 43.4 million acres, down 7% from 1998. This will be the lowest planted acreage since 1972. Class breakdowns are: Hard red winter, 30.9 million acres; Soft Red Winter, 9.0 million acres, and White Winter, 3.5 million acres. December 1, 1998, stocks of all wheat totaled 1.89 billion bushels, up 17% from a year ago and the largest December inventory since 1990. The market year average price for the 1998/99 crop is projected between $2.65 and $2.75 per bushel compared with $3.38 for the 1997 crop.

.Corn. The 1998 corn for grain production was estimated at 9.76 billion bushels, up 6% from the 1997 crop. The 1998 production ranks second behind the 10.1 billion bushels produced in 1994. Corn stocks in all positions on December 1, 1998 totaled 8.05 billion bushels, up 11% from a year earlier. A market year average price between $1.80 and $2.10 a bushel is expected compared with $2.43 for the 1997 crop. World production is expected to be 4% above last year. Global 1998/99 ending stocks are expected to be 13% above the previous year.

.Cattle. January 1 cattle on feed in the U.S. feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more totaled 10.63 million head, down 5% from a year earlier. Placements were down 4% from the previous year. Marketings of fed cattle were 4% higher than 1997. At mid-January, prices for choice steers (Nebraska direct, 1100-1300 pounds) averaged $61 per cwt. Feeder steer prices (Oklahoma City, medium-large frame, 750-800 pounds) were around $71 per cwt in mid-January, up slightly from mid-December.

.Other Livestock. December milk production was up 3.0% from the previous year. Production per cow increased 2.8%, however, the number of cows was almost unchanged from December 1997. The December Basic Formula Price (BFP) was a record $17.34 per cwt, up 50 cents from November.

.Trade. January U.S. trade projections for rice improved while 1998/99 export prospects for wheat and soybeans declined, compared with last month. Corn, cotton, beef, pork, broilers, and turkeys were unchanged from December. January projections for the volume of exports for the 1998/99 marketing year compared to 1997/98 are: wheat up 6%; corn up 13%; rice up 2%; soybeans down 5%; soybean meal down 12%; soybean oil down 12%; and cotton down 43%. January projections for the volume of meat exports in calendar 1999 compared to 1998 are: beef up 8%; pork up 10%; broilers down 3%; and turkeys up slightly . The U.S. trade deficit for goods and services increased to $15.5 billion in November, from a revised $13.6 billion October. The U.S. agricultural trade surplus was $1.759 billion in November, compared with $1.740 billion in October.

.Prices. The rate of inflation, as monitored by the CPI for all urban consumers, was up 0.1% in December and has increased 1.6% over the last 12 months. The PPI increased 0.4% in December. This followed a decrease of 0.2% in November. For the 12-month period ending in December, the PPI decreased 0.1%. The December prime rate, averaging 7.75%, was down from 7.89% in November. Compared to a year earlier, feed prices in December were down 20%; feeder livestock and poultry prices down 11%; fertilizer down 8%; ag chemicals up 1%; farm machinery up 2%; seeds up 2%; and fuels down 25%.

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1997 CENSUS OF AGRICULTURE

On February 1, 1999, USDA will release the results of the 1997 Census of Agriculture, the first census of agriculture conducted under its authority. The census is conducted only once every five years and remains the only source of consistent, comprehensive data for every county in the Nation. Release of new census data is an event anxiously awaited by the farm media, agribusiness, industry and trade associations, farm organizations, and others who rely on the census for comprehensive local agricultural statistics.

The Census of Agriculture provides data such as land use and ownership; crops, livestock, and poultry inventory and sales; organizational structures; operator characteristics; injuries and deaths; number of hired workers; expenditures for fertilizer, chemicals, energy, and other production expenses; machinery and equipment; and farm program participation.

State and county census data for Kansas will also be released at that time. Highlight information will be available on the Internet at http://www.usda.gov/nass/census/. Information for the U.S. and other states will also be available at that site. Information may also be obtained by contacting Kansas Agricultural Statistics at 1-800-258_4564.


Ron Sitzman & John Cole, Agricultural Statisticians
Eldon J. Thiessen, State Statistician
Eddie Wells, Deputy State Statistician

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