Released: September 11, 1998
Volume 98, No. 9

Sorghum grain production is forecast at 254.1 million bushels, down 7 percent from last year's record production of 273.0 million bushels. Kansas is first in the nation in sorghum production. Yields are expected to average 77 bushels per acre, down 1 bushel from last year's yield. Planted acreage is 3.5 million acres, down 150,000 acres from 1997. The acreage for harvest, at 3.3 million acres, is down 6 percent from 1997. As of September 8, 83 percent of the sorghum acreage was turning color, compared to the average of 57 percent. Twenty-five percent of the acreage across the State was mature, compared to 10 percent last year and a percent for the five year average. Condition of the crop was 72 percent good to excellent, 23 percent fair, and 5 percent poor to very poor.

Soybean production is forecast at a record high of 90.0 million bushels, down 5 percent from August 1, but 1 percent above last year's crop. Acreage for harvest is expected to total 2.5 million acres, unchanged from August 1, but up 4 percent from last year. Yields are expected to average 36 bushels per acre, down 2 bushels from August 1 and down 1 bushel from 1997. Twenty-seven percent of the acreage was dropping leaves. Condition was rated 64 percent good to excellent, 27 percent fair, and 8 percent poor, and 1 percent very poor.

Pecan production in Kansas is expected to total 200,000 pounds, down dramatically from last year's 4.2 million pounds. This year's crop has been seen unfavorable weather conditions since last fall.

Table 2-- KANSAS CROP PRODUCTION FORECAST, SEPTEMBER 1, 1998, BY DISTRICTS
Crop And District	Acres Planted, All Purposes		Acres Harvested for Grain			Yield per Acre		Production
	1997	1998	1997	1998	% Prev. Year	1997	1998	1997	1998	% Prev. Year
	------------ 1,000 Acres ------------					Bushels		1,000 Bushels
CORN
Northwest	458	525	441	505	115	126	132	55,585	66,480	120
West Central	206	214	190	199	105	132	142	25,145	28,250	112
Southwest	810	900	785	874	111	185	174	144,900	152,430	105
North Central	212	216	201	204	101	113	136	22,640	27,680	122
Central	105	105	92	92	100	137	132	12,620	12,170	96
South Central	328	338	310	321	104	165	146	51,005	46,850	92
Northeast	382	372	359	350	97	108	119	38,770	41,660	108
East Central	233	212	216	197	91	110	112	23,735	22,160	93
Southeast	116	118	106	108	102	110	91	11,700	9,870	84
State	2,850	3,000	2,700	2,850	106	143	143	386,100	407,550	106
SORGHUM GRAIN
Northwest	185	200	170	180	106	70	76	11,900	13,600	114
West Central	250	470	238	436	183	73	75	17,374	32,600	188
Southwest	520	494	510	466	91	68	66	34,552	30,600	89
North Central	665	525	627	498	79	77	82	48,321	40,700	84
Central	590	570	560	539	96	82	76	45,924	40,800	89
South Central	580	519	550	487	89	75	72	41,254	34,900	85
Northeast	305	239	301	229	76	90	90	27,090	20 500	76
East Central	225	213	221	204	92	90	90	19,780	18,300	93
Southeast	330	270	323	261	81	83	85	26,805	22,100	82
State	3,650	3,500	3,500	3,300	94	78	77	273,000	254,100	93
SOYBEANS
Northwest	21	28	20	27	135	50	49	1,007	1,335	133
West Central	8	13	8	12	150	43	42	328	505	154
Southwest	35	43	34	42	124	48	46	1,632	1,940	119
North Central	210	231	206	227	110	34	43	6,975	9,870	142
Central	95	110	92	108	117	43	41	3,912	4,480	115
South Central	195	220	192	216	113	48	41	9,147	8,880	97
Northeast	592	600	581	588	101	36	40	21,071	23,810	113
East Central	655	660	642	648	101	36	32	23,251	20,790	89
Southeast	639	645	625	632	101	34	29	21,477	18,390	86
State	2,450	2,550	2,400	2,500	104	37	36	88,800	90,000	101

Production of sorghum grain is forecast at 529 million bushels, 770,000 bushels above the August forecast but 19 percent below the 1997 total. Area harvested and to be harvested was unchanged from August, at 7.84 million acres, down 17 percent from the previous year. The forecast U.S. yield, at 67.5 bushels per acre, was up 0.1 bushel from last month but 2.0 bushels per acre below 1997.

Soybean production is forecast at a record high 2.91 billion bushels, up 3 percent from August 1 and up 7 percent from last year's record of 2.73 billion bushels. The yield, forecast at 40.6 bushels per acre, increased 1.1 bushels from last month and is 1.6 bushels above the 1997 final yield. If realized, this will be the second highest yield on record. The record yield of 41.4 bushels was set in 1994. Acreage for harvest is estimated at a record 71.6 million acres, unchanged from August 1 but up 2 percent from 1997.

All wheat production is placed at 2.56 billion bushels, up 1 percent from August forecast and 2 percent from 1997. Yield is forecast at 43.3 bushels per acre. This is up 0.3 bushels from last month and is a new record high yield.

Table 3-- UNITED STATES CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1, 1998
Crop & Unit	Planted 1/		Harvested		Yield per Acre		Production
	1997	1998	1997	1998	1997	1998	1997	1998
	1,000 Acres				Per Unit		(000's)
All Wheat, bu. 2/	70,989	65,799	63,577	59,211	39 .7	43 .3	2,526,552	2,564,769
Corn Grain, bu.	80,227	80,798	73,720	73,789	127 .0	132 .0	9,365,574	9,737,949
Sorghum Grain, bu.	10,108	9,726	9,391	7,838	69 .5	67 .5	653,106	529,371
Soybeans, bu.	70,850	72,690	69,884	71,570	39 .0	40 .6	2,727,254	2,908,604
All Hay, tons 2/	-	-	60,815	59,819	2 .50	2 .48	152,120	148,287
Alfalfa Hay, tons 2/	-	-	23,673	23,437	3 .35	3 .43	79,242	80,290
Other Hay, tons 2/	-	-	37,142	36,382	1 .96	1 .87	72,878	67,997

1/ Planted for all purposes. 2/ Estimate carried forward from earlier forecast.

Table 4-- KANSAS AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS
Commodity	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997
	Million Dollars
Wheat & Flour	735 .6	663 .3	907 .2	863 .4	498 .2
Total Feed Grains	361 .7	398 .8	492 .2	638 .3	607 .5
Live Animals & Meat (Excluding Poultry)	559 .9	587 .3	772 .0	788 .0	628 .1
Hides & Skins	211 .4	235 .1	323 .3	289 .3	282 .7
Soybeans & Products	190 .5	160 .4	210 .1	186 .3	287 .4
Feeds & Fodders	122 .9	144 .6	164 .8	184 .2	188 .9
Fats, Oils, & Greases	82 .1	81 .9	148 .5	113 .7	85 .0
Seeds	21 .4	18 .3	17 .3	21 .0	38 .5
Sunflowers & Oils	13 .1	14 .4	28 .0	20 .1	26 .1
Dairy Products	11 .8	10 .0	6 .9	3 .3	3 .9
Other	3 .9	3 .7	3 .5	3 .9	4 .0
Total	2,314 .3	2,317 .6	3,073 .8	3,111 .8	2,650 .3

The USDA released its second official estimate of 1998 corn and soybean production. It also made revisions in its estimates of spring and durum production. Corn production was pegged at 9,738 million bushels, 1.5 percent above the August crop report and well above the average of industry analysts' pre-release estimates. The September report is based on crop conditions as they prevailed around September 1. Corn crop conditions have declined slightly since then but are still above average for this time of year. Yield models (based on corn's weekly crop condition and maturity) have pegged the national corn yield at 135.3 bushels (plus or minus 4.5 bushels). The September crop report's yield projection was 132.0 bushels.

Since 1950, the September corn crop estimate has been larger than the August estimate 58 percent of the time. Since 1950, the final annual corn crop has been larger than the September crop estimate 65 percent of the time. On average (for all years) the annual crop is 1.2 percent larger than the September estimate. Two-thirds of the time, the final corn crop falls between 6.1 percent above to 3.7 percent below the September estimate.

The USDA also released revised projections for 1998/99 corn supply-demand. The most significant change was that beginning stocks were reduced 50 million bushels (due to an unusual 50 million bushel increase in "old crop" exports). Similarly, the projection for "new crop" corn exports was raised 25 million bushels. As a consequence of these changes in the supply-demand figures, corn ending stocks were increased 71 million bushels. The midpoint of the USDA's projected price range was lowered $.15 and now stands at $2.00 -- down $.45 from last year's $2.45. Given the seasonal tendency for feed grain prices to decline into harvest, the "tightness" in both storage and transport capacity, and considering the possible effects of the "Marketing Loan" program, it seems likely that December corn futures could drop to $1.90 by harvest. The nearby corn futures contract could actually trade below the national average loan rate of $1.89, if large Loan Deficiency Payment (LDP's) induce farmers to sell grain rather than store the crop under loan.

Another factor which could contribute to further weakness in feed grain prices is this year's unusually low level of export sales. As of the middle of August, "new crop" corn export sales were 240 million bushels, the fifth lowest figure on record. This year's sales have accounted for only 15 percent of the projected annual exports. On average, sales as of this date account for 22 percent of annual exports.

The soybean crop was a record 2,910 million bushels, 3 percent above the August estimate, and 25 million bushels above the average of industry expectations. Yield models based on soybean's weekly crop condition and maturity indicate that nation's soybean yield has declined slightly since the crop survey was conducted. However, the model's latest yield projection is 41.6 bushels (plus or minus 1.2 bushels). The September crop report's yield projection was 40.6 bushels.

Since 1950, the September crop report has been larger than the August report 63 percent of the time. Since 1950, the final annual soybean crop has been larger than the September crop estimate just 53 percent of the time. On average (for all years), the annual crop is 0.7 percent larger than the September estimate. Two-thirds of the time, the final soybean crop falls between 4.8 percent above to 3.4 percent below the September estimate.

The USDA also released revised projections for 1998/99 soybean supply-demand. Beginning stocks were reduced 10 million bushels, while usage was increased 19 million bushels. However, projected ending stocks have increased by 55 million bushels from the August estimate. The increase in ending stocks, while widely expected, pushes stocks to 18 percent of usage, more than double last year's 8 percent (and well above the ten year average of 11 percent). The midpoint of the USDA's projected price range was lowered $.35 and now stands at $5.00, down $1.45 from last year's $6.45.

The USDA is projecting that last year's robust export demand will continue this year, resulting in near record exports of 860 million bushels. As of the middle of August, soybean export sales totaled 127 million bushels, 128 million bushels less than a year ago but "on track" to meet the USDA's latest projection for annual exports. This year's sales have accounted for 15 percent of the projected annual exports. On average, sales as of this date account for 16 percent of annual exports. The soybean price seasonal suggests that cash prices will achieve a harvest low in October. Consequently, November soybean futures could decline to $4.75. Following the seasonal lows, soybean prices could stage a stronger-than-average post-harvest recovery due to usually low world oilseed stocks, expected reductions in S. American production, and possible increases in world consumption stimulated by the current low prices.

Ron Sitzman & Deonne McCray, Agricultural Statisticians
Eldon J. Thiessen, State Statistician
Eddie Wells, Deputy State Statistician

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