Released: March 31, 1999
Volume 99, No. 4

Sorghum acreage expected to be planted, at 3.60 million acres, is up 3 percent from a year ago. Corn planting intentions totaled 3.10 million, up 3 percent from the 1998 acreage. Soybean planted acreage is expected to be 2.60 million acres, up 2 percent from last year. Oat seedings are expected to be up 9 percent from 1998 at 120,000 acres. Barley seedings, at 16,000 acres, are up significantly from the 8,000 acres planted in 1998.

Sunflower acreage to be planted, at 260,000 acres, is up 44 percent from last year. Dry beans, at 23,000 acres, are up 15 percent from the previous year. All hay for harvest, at 2.80 million acres, is down 3 percent from 1998. Cotton is expected to be planted on 29,000 acres, up from 17,000 acres last year.

Table 1-- PROSPECTIVE PLANTINGS - MARCH 1, 1999
Crop	Acreage Planted or to be Planted
	Kansas			United States
	1998	Prospective 1999	1999 as % of 1998	1998	Prospective 1999	1999 as % of 1998
	1,000 Acres		Percent	1,000 Acres		Percent
Wheat, All	10,700	10,000	93	65,871	63,029	96
Winter 1/	10,700	10,000	93	46,449	43,399	93
Durum	-	-	-	3,805	4,270	112
Other Spring	-	-	-	15,617	15,360	98
Sorghum, All	3,500	3,600	103	9,626	8,804	91
Corn, All	3,000	3,100	103	80,187	78,219	98
Soybeans	2,550	2,600	102	72,375	73,105	101
Oats	110	120	109	4,902	4,732	97
Barley	8	16	200	6,340	5,274	83
All Hay 2/	2,900	2,800	97	60,016	60,093	100
Sunflowers	180	260	144	3,553	3,955	111
Beans, Dry Edible	20 .0	23 .0	115	2,010 .1	2,045 .5	102
Cotton	17 .0	29 .0	171	13,417 .9	13,944 .2	104
1/ Planted previous fall. 2/ Acreage for harvest.

Soybean producers intend to plant 73.1 million acres in 1999, up 1 percent from last year. If realized, this will be the largest planted area for soybeans on record.

Sorghum plantings are expected to total a record low 8.80 million acres, down 9 percent from last year and 12 percent below the 1997 total.

The 1999 all wheat planted area is expected to total 63.0 million acres, down 4 percent from 1998 and the lowest level in 26 years. Durum wheat acres are expected to increase to 4.27 million acres, up 12 percent from 1998. This will be the largest Durum area since 1982. Other spring wheat 1999 planted acres are placed at 15.4 million acres, down 2 percent from last year. If realized, this will be the smallest area since 1988. Of the total, about 14.5 million acres are Hard Red Spring Wheat.

All cotton plantings for 1999 are expected to total 13.9 million acres, 4 percent above 1998 and up 46,200 acres from 1997. Acreage of American-Pima cotton is down 7 percent from 1998, at 305,200 acres.

Sorghum grain in all positions totaled 108.7 million bushels, down 37 percent from December 1998 and 10 percent below the level a year ago. Off-farm stocks accounted for 75.7 million bushels and on-farm stocks 33.0 million bushels.

Kansas corn stocks in all locations, at 192.7 million bushels, were down 24 percent from December but up 12 percent from stocks last March. Off-farm stocks were 132.7 million bushels, which accounted for 69 percent of the total corn stocks. On-farm stocks, at 60.0 million bushels, were up 25 percent from the 1998 March stocks.

Off-farm oat stocks totaled 650,000 bushels, down 8 percent from December and 51 percent below March 1998. On-farm stocks are no longer published separately for Kansas.

Kansas soybeans in all locations totaled 42.1 million bushels, down 32 percent from December and 15 percent from the 1998 March stocks. Off-farm stocks, at 26.1 million bushels, were down 26 percent from last year and accounted for 62 percent of the total soybean stocks. On-farm stocks, at 16.0 million bushels, were up 14 percent from last year.

All wheat stocks March 1, 1999 are estimated at 1.44 billion bushels in all positions, up 24 percent from March 1, 1998, to the biggest March number since 1988. Disappearance for the quarter ending March 1 is 451 million bushels, down slightly from the same period in 1998.

Soybeans stored in all positions on March 1, 1999, totaled 1.46 billion bushels, up 21 percent from March 1, 1998.

Barley stocks in all positions on March 1, 1999, totaled 200 million bushels, up 11 percent from a year ago.

Oats stored in all positions on March 1, 1999, totaled 109 million bushels, 2 percent below the stocks on March 1, 1998.

Grain sorghum stored in all positions on March 1, 1999 totaled 226 million bushels, down 4 percent from March 1, 1998.

Table 2-- STOCKS OF GRAIN - MARCH 1, 1999, WITH COMPARISONS
Grain	Position	Kansas			United States
		Mar. 1, 1998	Dec. 1, 1998	Mar. 1, 1999	Mar. 1, 1998	Dec. 1, 1998	Mar. 1, 1999
		1,000 Bushels
All Wheat	On Farms	25,000	31,000	30,000	399,920	680,200	470,220
	Off Farms 1/	188,301	240,381	202,059	766,644	1,215,618	974,594
	TOTAL	213,301	271,381	232,059	1,166,564	1,895,818	1,444,814
Sorghum Grain	On Farms	28,000	51,000	33,000	56,760	95,900	60,900
	Off Farms 1/	92,560	122,035	75,670	177,916	239,416	165,522
	TOTAL	120,560	173,035	108,670	234,676	335,316	226,422
Corn	On Farms	48,000	105,000	60,000	2,975,000	5,320,000	3,570,000
	Off Farms 1/	123,934	149,283	132,680	1,964,898	2,731,924	2,125,546
	TOTAL	171,934	254,283	192,680	4,939,898	8,051,924	5,695,546
Oats	On Farms	*	*	*	58,800	81,500	61,700
	Off Farms 1/	1,324	710	650	52,418	61,850	47,588
	TOTAL	*	*	*	111,218	143,350	109,288
Barley	On Farms	*	*	*	81,900	149,000	86,900
	Off Farms 1/	47	36	48	98,299	121,523	113,526
	TOTAL	*	*	*	180,199	270,523	200,426
Soybeans	On Farms	14,000	23,000	16,000	637,000	1,187,000	815,000
	Off Farms 1/	35,364	38,868	26,102	565,922	999,033	643,280
	TOTAL	49,364	61,868	42,102	1,202,922	2,186,033	1,458,280
1/ Includes stocks at mills, elevators, warehouses, terminals, & processors.

The total number of acres planted to all crops was slightly less than industry expectations, with total prospective plantings 4 million acres less than last year. Since 1996, the first year of "Freedom to Farm" the area seeded to principal crops has declined 6.4 million acres (about two-and-a-half percent). The area harvested as hay has declined slightly more than one million acres or about 2 percent.

There is a tendency for final corn acres to be less than and final soybean acres to be more than the prospective plantings report. Acres switch from corn to soybeans usually as a result of delayed corn plantings. There does not appear to be a strong statistical relationship between changes in corn and soybean planted acres (versus prospective plantings) and changes in the ratio of corn to soybean prices. Generally speaking, final seeded acres are relatively close to prospective plantings. Two-thirds of the time, final corn acres are within 2.3 percent of prospective plantings. Similarly, final soybean acres are within 2.9 percent of prospective plantings. Final seedings of sorghum and spring wheat, however, do vary considerably from final acres. Two-thirds of the time, spring wheat and sorghum acres are within 7.7 percent of prospective plantings.

The USDA's stocks report indicated that March 1 corn stocks were over 750 million bushels larger than last year and were at the high end of the range of industry expectations. Corn stocks were also the largest that they had been since 1988. The implication is that the USDA will be forced to lower its projection of corn feeding in its next supply-demand projection. In addition, export demand for corn is showing signs of slackening. As of the middle of March, corn export commitments were about 1.3 billion bushels, about 235 million bushels more than last year but nearly 95 million bushels behind the "average" pace needed to meet the USDA's March annual export projection of 1.8 billion bushels. It's possible that the combination of lower feed use and smaller exports could add another 125-200 million bushels to the USDA's next projection for corn ending stocks.

Soybean stocks were a record 1,458 million bushels and 255 million bushels more than last year. However, the report came in at the low end of the range of industry expectations, suggesting that soybean residual use is larger than expected or that the 1998 crop was over estimated. Although a record, soybean stocks are not excessive when measured as a percent of the total disappearance in the first half of the year. However, when U.S. soybean stocks are combined with the projected new crop supply of S. American soybeans, the combined stocks of soybeans in the Western Hemisphere is at or near record levels (relative to the rate of usage).

Given this latest USDA information, farmers may want to consider making some additional sales of new crop wheat, feed grains, and oilseeds. Of the three principal crop groups, oilseeds appear to have the greatest downside price risk. Oilseed producers may want to purchase November puts at this time. Wheat prices may hold up until late April or early May, but then, if winter wheat crop conditions are average or better, prices will probably begin a decline of 10-15 percent off the highs it sets in March. Feed grain prices, also may find some support until it is clear that the 1999 planting is progressing at an average pace. If corn planting does proceed at an average pace, producers may want to price a substantial portion of their expected crop by purchasing December puts.

Doug Hartwig & Deonne McCray, Agricultural Statisticians
Eldon J. Thiessen, State Statistician
Eddie Wells, Deputy State Statistician

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