Released: July 12, 1999
Volume 99, No. 7

Kansas growers planted 19.3 million acres to the four major crops (wheat, sorghum, corn, and soybeans), down 2 percent from 1998. Wheat seeded last fall totaled 10.0 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast but down 7 percent (700,000 acres) from last year. Acreage for harvest is expected to be 9.2 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast but 9 percent (900,000 acres) below a year ago.

Soybean plantings are expected to total 2.70 million acres, 6 percent above a year ago and the largest planted acreage of soybeans in Kansas history. Expected acreage for harvest, at 2.65 million acres, is 6 percent above last year and the largest harvested acreage for soybeans in Kansas history, if realized. Corn planted acreage, at 3.0 million acres, is unchanged from the record set last year for planted acres. Acreage expected to be harvested for grain is 2.80 million acres, down 2 percent from last year. Sorghum acreage to be planted, at 3.6 million acres, is up 3 percent from last year. Kansas still ranks first in the nation in sorghum acreage. The acreage intended for harvest as grain, at 3.4 million acres, is also up 3 percent from last year. Oats planted in 1999, at 120,000 acres, is 9 percent above last year. Oats expected to be harvested for grain, at 70,000 acres, is up 10,000 acres from the previous year. Barley planted acreage, at 16,000 acres, increased 8,000 acres from last year. Expected acreage for harvest, at 14,000 acres, is up 6,000 acres from last year. Rye acreage planted, at 90,000, is up 10,000 acres from last year. Acreage for harvest, at 10,000 acres, is down 5,000 acres from a year ago. Sunflowers planted are expected to total 270,000 acres, up 90,000 acres or a 50 percent increase from a year ago. Of the total sunflower acres, 240,000 are planted to oil type varieties and 30,000 to non-oil varieties. Acreage for harvest, at 260,000, is up 49 percent from last year. Hay acreage to be harvested is expected to total 2.90 million acres, unchanged from last year. Of the total hay acreage, 850,000 acres are planted to alfalfa. Acreage of dry beans planted, at 29,000 acres, is up 9,000 acres from last year. Harvested acreage is forecast at 27,000 acres. Cotton acreage is estimated at 29,000 acres in 1999, up 12,000 acres from last year.

Table 1-- KANSAS WHEAT PRODUCTION, JULY 1, 1999
District	Acres Planted		Acres Harvested			Yield Per Acre		Production
	1998	1999	1998	1999	% of Prev. Yr	1998	1999	1998	1999	% of Prev. Yr
WINTER WHEAT	- - - - - - - - 1,000 Acres - - - - - - - -				Percent	Bushels		1,000 Bushels		Percent
Northwest	1,150	1,140	1,090	1,070	98	51	45	55,991	48,600	87
West Central	1,280	1,230	1,180	1,150	97	51	43	60,261	50,000	83
Southwest	1,750	1,590	1,650	1,470	89	51	49	84,231	71,700	85
North Central	1,360	1,360	1,315	1,300	99	55	44	72,938	57,800	79
Central	1,680	1,490	1,559	1,320	85	49	44	77,072	58,200	76
South Central	2,420	2,280	2,289	2,040	89	45	49	101,995	100,800	99
Northeast	240	200	230	185	80	48	41	11,032	7,500	68
East Central	265	230	252	220	87	42	42	10,668	9,300	87
Southeast	555	480	535	445	83	39	43	20,712	19,300	93
State	10,700	10,000	10,100	9,200	91	49	46	494,900	423,200	86

Table 2-- CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1, 1998-1999
Crop	Planted	Harvested		Yield Per Acre		Production
	1999	1998	1999	1998	1999	1998	1999
	- - - - 1,000 Acres - - - -			Bushels		1,000 Bushels
KANSAS
Winter Wheat	10,000	10,100	9,200	49	46	494,900	423,200
Barley	16	8	14	35	31	280	434
Oats	120	60	70	45	58	2,700	4,060
Peaches 1/	--	--	--	--	--	500	700
UNITED STATES
All Wheat	62,883	59,002	54,617	43 .2	42 .7	2,550,383	2,332,978
Winter Wheat	43,419	40,126	35,609	46 .9	47 .0	1,880,605	1,673,222
Barley	5,237	5,867	4,894	60 .1	60 .3	352,445	294,869
Oats	4,658	2,765	2,641	60 .4	61 .1	167,122	161,251
Peaches 1/	--	--	--	--	--	2,429,300	2,498,100

1/ Unit in pounds.

Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.67 billion bushels. This is up 4 percent from June 1, but down11 percent from 1998. The U.S. yield is forecast at 47.0 bushels per acre, up 2.3 bushels per acre from June 1, and a new record high. Hard Red Winter Wheat, at 1.03 billion bushels, is up from a month ago by 5 percent. White Winter production is down for the second consecutive month, and now totals 199 million bushels. Soft Red Winter is up 6 percent from the last forecast, at 443 million bushels.

Table 3-- CORN, SORGHUM, AND SOYBEANS, KANSAS, BY DISTRICTS, 1998-1999
District	Corn Planted			Sorghum Planted			Soybeans Planted
	1998	1999	% of	1998	1999	% of	1998	1999	% of
	1,000 Acres		%	1,000 Acres		%	1,000 Acres		%
Northwest	500	520	104	190	210	111	28	50	179
West Central	254	290	114	321	340	106	16	15	94
Southwest	900	850	94	560	540	96	44	65	148
North Central	220	283	129	600	577	96	217	295	136
Central	98	88	90	580	562	97	137	145	106
South Central	330	264	80	532	642	121	253	195	77
Northeast	380	418	110	252	224	89	545	620	114
East Central	215	213	99	173	222	128	635	570	90
Southeast	103	74	72	292	283	97	675	695	103
State	3,000	3,000	100	3,500	3,600	103	2,550	2,650	104

and 10 percent above 1997.

Table 4-- CROP ACREAGE, 1998-1 999
Crop	Kansas				United States
	Planted		Harvested		Planted		Harvested
	1998	1999	1998	1999	1998	1999	1998	1999
	- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1,000 Acres - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Corn 1/	3,000	3,000	2,850	2,800	80,187	77,611	72,604	71,039
Sorghum 1/	3,500	3,600	3,300	3,400	9,626	9,049	7,723	8,299
Soybeans	2,550	2,700	2,500	2,650	72,375	74,205	70,811	73,316
Oats	110	120	60	70	4,902	4,658	2,765	2,641
Barley	8	16	8	14	6,340	5,237	5,867	4,893
Rye	80	90	15	10	1,571	1,573	418	396
Dry Edible Beans	20 .0	29 .0	19 .0	27 .0	2,010 .1	2,022 .8	1,913 .9	1,941 .3
Sunflowers	180	270	175	260	3,553	3,606	3,476	3,523
All Hay	-	-	2,900	2,900	-	-	60,016	61,951
Alfalfa	-	-	1,000	850	-	-	23,642	23,968
Other Hay	-	-	1,900	2,050	-	-	36,374	37,983
Cotton	17 .0	29 .0	16 .5	2/	13,392 .5	14,559 .2	10,683 .6	2/

1/ Harvested area is for grain. 2/ No estimate currently available.

Kansas wheat stocks in all positions totaled 148.6 million bushels on June 1, significantly above last June. Wheat stored at off-farm locations (mills, elevators, warehouses, and processors) totaled 138.6 million bushels, which accounted for 93 percent of the total grain stocks. Wheat stocks in both on-farm and off-farm positions were at their highest level since June 1991.

Sorghum grain in all positions totaled 50.4 million bushels, 5 percent above last year's level. Off-farm stocks accounted for 38.4 million bushels and on-farm stocks 12.0 million bushels.

Kansas corn stocks in all locations, at 93.4 million bushels, were 6 percent higher than last June. Off-farm stocks were 61.4 million bushels, which accounted for 66 percent of the total corn stocks. On-farm stocks at 32.0 million bushels, were up 2.0 million bushels from last June.

Off-farm oat stocks were 498,000 bushels, down 56 percent from last June.

Kansas soybeans in all locations totaled 22.8 million bushels, a 9 percent increase from June 1998. Off-farm stocks, at 15.3 million bushels, were up 14 percent from last year and accounted for 67 percent of the total soybean stocks. On-farm stocks totaled 7.5 million bushels, unchanged from the previous year's stocks.

Table 5-- STOCKS OF GRAIN - JUNE 1, 1999, WITH COMPARISONS
Grain	Position	Kansas			United States
		June 1, 1998	March 1, 1999	June 1, 1999	June 1, 1998	March 1, 1999	June 1, 1999
		1,000 Bushels
All Wheat	On-Farms	10,000	30,000	10,000	224,210	471,220	277,710
	Off-Farms 1/	96,901	196,800	138,561	498,268	979,191	667,233
	TOTAL	106,901	226,800	148,561	722,478	1,450,411	944,943
Sorghum Grain	On-Farms	11,000	33,000	12,000	27,200	60,900	27,400
	Off-Farms 1/	37,186	70,727	38,377	68,944	161,536	88,691
	TOTAL	48,186	103,727	50,377	96,144	222,436	116,091
Corn	On-Farms	30,000	60,000	32,000	1,830,000	3,570,000	2,257,000
	Off-Farms 1/	58,162	134,595	61,446	1,209,757	2,128,428	1,358,960
	TOTAL	88,162	194,595	93,446	3,039,757	5,698,428	3,615,960
Oats	On-Farms	*	*	*	34,500	61,700	40,700
	Off-Farms 1/	1,140	1,148	498	39,498	50,850	40,686
	TOTAL	*	*	*	73,998	112,550	81,386
Barley	On-Farms	*	*	*	43,700	86,900	52,000
	Off-Farms 1/	34	49	30	75,533	113,808	88,848
	TOTAL	*	*	*	119,233	200,708	140,848
Soybeans	On-Farms	7,500	16,000	7,500	318,000	815,000	460,000
	Off-Farms 1/	13,452	25,928	15,294	275,654	642,338	390,274
	TOTAL	20,952	41,928	22,794	593,654	1,457,338	850,274
1/ Includes stocks at mills, elevators, warehouses, terminals, & processors. * Data not published to avoid disclosure of individual operations.

Most figures in the USDA's July wheat crop estimate were much larger than expectations. Only the durum crop was below the trade's pre- release estimate. At 1,673 million bushels, the winter wheat figure was 40 million bushels above the average of the trade's pre-release guesstimates and 4 percent above the June figure. While 4 percent may seem like a large change, in 1997 the July report increased the size of the crop by 11 percent (the largest increase since 1950), and last year it was 9 percent larger. On average, there is only a 2 percent increase in winter wheat production between the July and the June reports.

Hard Red Winter (HRW) production, pegged by USDA at 1,031 million bushels, was up 5 percent from the June estimate and 23 million bushels (2 percent) larger than the trade's average forecast. This is the fourth year in a row that the size of the HRW crop has surprised the market. In 1996 the July HRW crop estimate was 3 percent larger than trade estimates. In 1997, the report was 6 percent larger and, last year, the crop estimate was 11 percent larger than trade expectations. The USDA's history of by-class winter wheat estimates (starting as of the May estimate) goes back to 1978. This year's July/June HRW increase was much more than the "average" increase which is 2 percent, but it is much less than the 15 percent increases seen in the last two years (1996 saw a 12 percent jump in production). The unexpected increase in winter wheat production was not due solely to the jump in the HRW crop. Soft Red Winter (SRW) production was posted at 443 million bushels, up 6 percent from the June estimate and 19 million bushels more than expectations. Soft White Winter (SWW) production was estimated at 199 million bushels, down 6 percent from the June estimate but in-line with industry expectations.

The "flip side" of the today's crop report was the larger-than-expected figure projected for spring wheat. The USDA's first estimate of "other" spring wheat production was 528 million bushels, virtually the same as last year's crop but 14 million bushels above the average of the trade's average estimate. Durum production was pegged at 132 million bushels, down 6 percent from last year's crop and below the trade's average estimate. In aggregate, total wheat production was put at 2,333 million bushels, 217 million bushels less than last year's crop but up 4 percent from the USDA's June projection.

Export activity is the lowest on record for this date. As of July 1, only 207 million bushels of wheat had been committed for export (including some 18 million bushels which is estimated "carry over" from last year's "food aid" donations). On average, 27 percent of annual wheat grain exports are booked by this date. Surprisingly, the USDA choose to leave its projection for exports unchanged at 1,150 million bushels, an increase of 100 million bushels from last year. Approximately 1,120 million bushels of that export projection consists of wheat as grain. Using the average ratio of July commitments/ annual exports, we should have 302 million bushels sold by now.

The USDA increased their estimate of wheat feeding by 25 million bushels. Some increase in wheat feeding had been expected due to the abundant supplies of HRW. The USDA raised its estimate of ending stocks by nearly 50 million bushels and they lowered their price forecast by $.15. The mid-point of the range of the USDA's forecast for wheat now stands at $2.70, $.05 above last year's price.

Seasonally, wheat prices tend to bottom in July but last year did not achieve their lows until early September. The prospect for a slightly larger winter and spring wheat crops (and possibly a better than expected Canadian crop), combined with a lackluster outlook in export demand and weakness in the feed grain and oilseed markets, makes a strong fundamental case for a further decline in market prices. However, another repeat of last year's "Food Aid Initiative" combined with a slackening of harvest pressure could provide a fundamental basis for the beginning of a post-harvest rally. Lower world wheat production and a decline in world ending stocks and any unexpected problems with the S. Hemisphere's wheat crop could also provide support to the market. Last year, the KCBT December contract rallied nearly $.60 in less than 60 days. Farmers, who sell their grain and take the LDP, may want to consider purchasing at-the-money December or March call options (to replace their ownership) sometime in the next 30-60 days.

Doug Hartwig & Deonne McCray, Agricultural Statisticians
Eldon J. Thiessen, State Statistician
Eddie Wells, Deputy State Statistician

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