Released: October 8, 1999
Volume 99, No. 10

Kansas corn production is expected to total 397.6 million bushels, unchanged from the previous forecast but 5 percent below last year's crop. Acreage harvested for grain, at 2.8 million acres, is unchanged from the previous forecast but down 2 percent from 1998. Corn yields are expected to average 142 bushels per acre, unchanged from September 1 but 5 bushels below the previous year.

Sorghum grain production is forecast at 248.2 million bushels, down 6 percent from last year. Kansas remains first in the nation in sorghum production. Yields are expected to average 73 bushels per acre, unchanged from last month but down 7 bushels from last year's yield. Acreage for harvest is 3.4 million acres, unchanged from September 1 but up 100,000 acres from 1998.

Soybean production is expected to total 71.6 million bushels, unchanged from September 1 but 5 percent below last year's crop. Acreage for harvest is expected to total 2.65 million acres, unchanged from September 1 but up 150,000 acres from last year. Yields are expected to average 27 bushels per acre, unchanged from September 1 but 3 bushels below 1998.

Sunflower production is forecast at a record high 405.6 million pounds, up 52 percent from last year. Harvested acreage, at 260,000, is up 85,000 acres from last year. The yield is expected to average 1,560 pounds per acre, up 2 percent from last year.

All hay production is estimated to total 7.81 million tons, down 3 percent from 1998. Acreage harvested is 2.9 million acres, unchanged from last year.

Kansas wheat production for 1999 is estimated at 432.4 million bushels, up 2 percent from the August forecast but down 13 percent from 1998. Yield is estimated at 47.0 bushels per acre, up 1 bushel from the August forecast but 2 bushels below the 1998 yield. Acres harvested for grain totaled 9.2 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast but 9 percent less than the 1998 harvest. A total of 10.0 million acres were planted to wheat for harvest in 1999, down 700,000 acres from the previous year. Oat production is 3.29 million bushels in 1999, up 22 percent from 1998. Final yield is estimated at 47.0 bushels per acre, up 2 bushels from the August forecast and the 1998 yield. Grain was harvested from 70,000 of the 120,000 acres planted. Barley production totaled 585,000 bushels for 1999, up 305,000 bushels from the 1998 crop. Yields averaged 45.0 bushels per acre, 10 bushels above last year. Grain was harvested from 13,000 of the 16,000 acres planted. Rye production in Kansas for 1999 totaled 300,000 bushels. The yield per acre averaged 30.0 bushels. Of the 90,000 acres planted, only 10,000 acres were harvested for grain. The remaining acreage was used primarily for livestock forage or as a cover crop.

Estimates of Kansas corn, sorghum, and soybean production by district are shown in table 2 on the following page. Wheat county and district data are not included in this report but will be released around the first of December.

Table 1-- KANSAS CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1, 1999
Crop & Unit	Planted 1/		Harvested		Yield per Acre 2/		Production
	1998	1999	1998	1999	1998	1999	1998	1999
	1,000 Acres				Per Unit		(000's)
Winter Wheat, bu.	10,700	10,000	10,100	9,200	49	47	494,900	432,400
Oats, bu.	110	120	60	70	45	47	2,700	3,290
Barley, bu.	8	16	8	13	35	45	280	585
Rye, bu.	80	90	15	10	25	30	375	300
Corn Grain, bu.	3,000	3,000	2,850	2,800	147	142	418,950	397,600
Sorghum Grain, bu.	3,500	3,600	3,300	3,400	80	73	264,000	248,200
Soybeans, bu.	2,550	2,700	2,500	2,650	30	27	75,000	71,550
All Sunflowers, lbs	180	270	175	260	1,528	1,560	267,350	405,600
Dry Beans, cwt. 3/	20	24	19	23	2,000	1,850	380	426
All Hay, tons	-	-	2,900	2,900	2 .77	2 .69	8,020	7,805
Alfalfa Hay,	-	-	1,000	850	4 .60	4 .60	4,600	3,910
Other Hay, tons	-	-	1,900	2,050	1 .80	1 .90	3,420	3,895
Pecans, lbs.	-	-	-	-	-	-	50	3,500
Apples, lbs.	-	-	-	-	-	-	1,600	6,100

1/ Planted for all purposes. 2/ Yields are rounded. 3/ Yield in pounds.

Table 2-- KANSAS CROP PRODUCTION FORECAST, OCTOBER 1, 1999, BY DISTRICTS
Crop And District	Acres Planted, All Purposes 1/		Acres Harvested for Grain 1/			Yield per Acre		Production
	1998	1999	1998	1999	% Prev. Year	1998	1999	1998	1999	% Prev. Year
	------------ 1,000 Acres ------------					Bushels		1,000 Bushels
CORN
Northwest	500	520	489	499	102	153	149	74,890	74,550	100
West Central	254	290	229	258	113	149	141	34,090	36,480	107
Southwest	900	850	873	815	93	176	182	153,620	148,650	97
North Central	220	283	205	262	128	125	124	25,545	32,490	127
Central	98	88	83	74	89	121	136	10,025	10,100	101
South Central	330	264	314	244	78	141	141	44,395	34,310	77
Northeast	380	418	363	393	108	128	100	46,490	39,300	85
East Central	215	213	200	189	95	110	90	22,035	17,100	78
Southeast	103	74	94	66	70	84	70	7,860	4,620	59
State	3,000	3,000	2,850	2,800	98	147	142	418,950	397,600	95
SORGHUM GRAIN
Northwest	190	210	176	197	112	92	82	16,253	16,193	100
West Central	321	340	304	324	107	92	84	28,042	27,185	97
Southwest	560	540	527	508	96	70	64	36,842	32,418	88
North Central	600	577	563	544	97	93	76	52,577	41,570	79
Central	580	562	553	523	95	75	78	41,651	40,633	98
South Central	532	642	500	601	120	63	66	31,307	39,376	126
Northeast	252	224	240	216	90	99	77	23,856	16,739	70
East Central	173	222	162	215	133	81	72	13,122	15,380	117
Southeast	292	283	275	272	99	74	69	20,350	18,706	92
State	3,500	3,600	3,300	3,400	103	80	73	264,000	248,200	94
SOYBEANS
Northwest	28	51	28	51	183	50	48	1,395	2,464	177
West Central	16	20	16	20	128	45	46	705	929	132
Southwest	44	65	44	64	147	50	46	2,174	2,942	135
North Central	217	295	217	294	136	38	34	8,272	9,889	120
Central	137	165	136	163	120	31	37	4,196	6,077	145
South Central	253	240	248	236	95	38	36	9,535	8,469	89
Northeast	545	563	541	559	103	36	30	19,455	16,569	85
East Central	635	614	623	602	97	27	22	16,556	13,242	80
Southeast	675	687	649	661	102	20	17	12,712	10,969	86
State	2,550	2,700	2,500	2,650	106	30	27	75,000	71,550	95

1/ Districts may not add to State due to rounding.

Table 3-- UNITED STATES CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1, 1999
Crop & Unit	Planted 1/		Harvested		Yield per Acre		Production
	1998	1999	1998	1999	1998	1999	1998	1999
	1,000 Acres				Per Unit		(000's)
All Wheat, bu.	65,821	62,988	59,002	54,319	43 .2	42 .7	2,547,321	2,317,591
Winter Wheat, bu.	46,449	43,425	40,126	35,542	46 .9	47 .8	1,880,733	1,698,369
Oats, bu.	4,892	4,670	2,755	2,465	60 .2	60 .0	165,981	147,906
Barley, bu.	6,337	5,223	5,864	4,778	60 .0	59 .5	352,125	284,073
Rye, bu.	1,566	1,582	418	383	29 .1	28 .7	12,161	10,993
Corn Grain, bu.	80,187	77,611	72,604	70,925	134 .4	133 .5	9,761,085	9,466,977
Sorghum Grain, bu.	9,626	9,299	7,723	8,499	67 .3	68 .3	519,933	580,361
Soybeans, bu.	72,025	74,145	70,441	72,786	38 .9	37 .0	2,741,014	2,696,272
All Sunflowers, lbs.	3,568 .0	3,676 .0	3,492 .0	3,593 .0	1,510	1,404	5,273,162	5,043,370
Dry Beans, cwt. 2/	2,010 .1	1,992 .6	1,913 .9	1,903 .0	1,611	1,669	30,828	31,755
Cotton, bales	13,392 .5	14,601 .2	10,683 .6	13,405 .2	625	588	13,918 .2	16,430 .0
All Hay, tons	-	-	60,016	62,051	2 .52	2 .60	151,338	161,385
Alfalfa Hay,	-	-	23,642	23,968	3 .47	3 .57	82,010	85,487
Other Hay,	-	-	36,374	38,083	1 .91	1 .99	69,328	75,898
Pecans, lbs.	-	-	-	-	-	-	146,400 .0	323,900 .0
Apples, lbs.	-	-	-	-	-	-	11,387 .4	10,614 .8

1/ Planted for all purposes. 2/ Yields in pounds.

Corn production is forecast at 9.47 billion bushels, up 1 percent from last month but down 3 percent from 1998. Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average 133.5 bushels per acre, up 1.3 bushels from last month, but down 0.9 bushels from a year ago. If realized, this would be the fourth largest production and the third highest yield on record. Acreage for harvest is estimated at 70.9 million acres, down 30,000 acres from last month due to flooding in North Carolina.

Sorghum grain production is forecast at 580 million bushels, virtually unchanged from the September forecast, but 12 percent higher than the 1998 total. Area harvested and to be harvested was unchanged from September at 8.50 million acres, up 10 percent from the previous year. The U.S. yield is forecast at 68.3 bushels per acre, up 0.1 bushel from last month and 1.0 bushel above last year. Compared to September, forecasted yields in Arkansas and Nebraska each increased by 2 bushels per acre, while Colorado lowered their forecast by 4 bushels. Record yields are expected in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas.

Soybean production is forecast at 2.70 billion bushels, down 3 percent from September 1 and 2 percent below last year's record of 2.74 billion bushels. The yield forecast, at 37.0 bushels per acre, decreased 0.9 bushel from last month and is 1.9 bushels below the 1998 final yield. Acreage for harvest is estimated at a record 72.8 million acres, down 1 percent from September 1 but up 3 percent from 1998. Acres expected for harvest were decreased by 475,000 acres in nine states, due to abandonment or harvested for hay. The states with the largest acreage reductions are North Carolina, Kentucky, Ohio, and Tennessee. Downward adjustments to harvested acres were also made in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Missouri, and South Carolina.

The USDA released its third official estimate of 1999 corn and soybean production. Corn production was pegged at 9,467 million bushels, about 1 percent above the September estimate and toward the high end of the range of industry analysts' pre-release estimates. The October crop report's yield projection was 133.5 bushels.

The USDA also released revised projections for 1999/2000 corn supply-demand. The most significant changes were: (1) beginning stocks were increased nearly 100 million bushels (in keeping with the figures reported last week in the September Stocks report); (2) feed and residual (F&R) was reduced 75 million bushels; (3) corn exports were raised 75 million bushels; and (4) as a consequence of these changes in the supply;demand figures, corn ending stocks were increased by 183 million bushels. The midpoint of the USDA's projected price range was lowered $ .10 and now stands at $1,85 _ a dime less than last year's price.

Given the seasonal tendency for feed grain prices to decline into harvest, the "tightness" in both storage and transport capacity, and considering the possible effects of the "Marketing Loan" program, it seems likely that December corn futures could make an attempt to "test" its previous contract low of $1.94 (set in early July). The nearby corn futures contract could actually trade below the national average loan rate of $1.89, if large Loan Deficiency Payment (LDP's) induce farmers to sell grain rather than store the crop under loan, if the USDA is forced to make further reductions in its F&R projection, or if the pace of corn export sales lags. As of September 30, corn export commitments stood at 494 million bushels. That's 60 million bushels more than last year but it's just 26 percent of the USDA's October projection of 1,925 million bushels. On average, about 30 percent of total annual corn exports are booked by this date.

The soybean crop was 2,696 million bushels, 3 percent less than the September estimate and one (1) million bushels less than the low end of the range of industry expectations. The October crop report's yield projection was 37.0 bushels.

The USDA also released revised projections for 1999/2000 soybean supply-demand. Beginning stocks were reduced 17 million bushels (in keeping with the figures reported last week in the September Stocks report), while usage was cut 23 million bushels. However, projected ending stocks have shrunk by 75 million bushels from the September estimate. The decrease in ending stocks, while widely expected, reduces stocks to 14.5 percent of usage, just slightly more than last year's 13.5 percent. However, that's still above the ten year average of 12 percent. The midpoint of the USDA's projected price range was raised $ .20 and now stands at $5.00, down only $ .02 from last year's season average price.

The USDA is projecting robust export demand for this year resulting in exports of 880 million bushels, 68 million bushels more than last year. As of the September 30, soybean export commitments totaled 265 million bushels, 38 million bushels less than a year ago and slightly "behind schedule" to meet the USDA's latest projection for annual exports. This year's commitments have accounted for 30 percent of the projected annual exports. On average, commitments as of this date account for 32 percent of annual exports.

The seasonal low for soybeans prices in October. Soybean prices should state a "average" post-harvest recovery due to expected but relatively minor reductions in S. American production and possible increases in world consumption stimulated by the current low prices. Consequently, July soybean futures (which are currently trading around $5.25) could rise to the $5.75-6.00 level sometime by late spring or early summer.

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