Released: September 10, 1999
Volume 99, No. 9

Sorghum grain production is forecast at 248.2 million bushels, down 6 percent from last year's production of 264.0 million bushels. Kansas leads the nation in sorghum production. Yields are expected to average 73 bushels per acre, down 7 bushels from last year's yield. Planted acreage is 3.6 million acres, up 100,000 acres from 1998. The acreage for harvest, at 3.4 million acres, is up 3 percent from 1998. As of September 5, 64 percent of the sorghum acreage was turning color, compared to last year at 78 percent and the average of 60 percent. Twelve percent of the acreage across the State was mature, compared to 23 percent last year and 11 percent for the five year average. Condition of the crop was 63 percent good to excellent, 28 percent fair, and 9 percent poor to very poor.

Soybean production is forecast at 71.6 million bushels, down 16 percent from August 1 and 5 percent below last year's crop. Acreage for harvest is expected to total 2.65 million acres, unchanged from August 1 but up 6 percent from last year. Yields are expected to average 27 bushels per acre, down 5 bushels from August 1 and 3 bushels below 1998. Eighteen percent of the acreage was dropping leaves. Condition was rated 40 percent good to excellent, 38 percent fair, 16 percent poor, and 6 percent very poor.

Table 1-- KANSAS CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1, 1999
Crop & Unit	Planted 1/		Harvested		Yield per Acre 2/		Production
	1998	1999	1998	1999	1998	1999	1998	1999
	1,000 Acres				Per Unit		(000's)
Winter Wheat, bu. 3/	10,700	10,000	10,100	9,200	49	46	494,900	423,200
Corn Grain, bu.	3,000	3,000	2,850	2,800	147	142	418,950	397,600
Sorghum Grain, bu.	3,500	3,600	3,300	3,400	80	73	264,000	248,200
Soybeans, bu.	2,550	2,700	2,500	2,650	30	27	75,000	71,550
Dry Beans, cwt. 3/ 4/	20	24	19	23	2,000	1,850	380	426
Cotton, 480 lb. bales 3/ 4/	17 .0	29 .0	16 .5	28 .0	404	411	13 .9	24 .0
All Hay, tons 3/	-	-	2,900	2,900	2 .77	2 .73	8,020	7,925
Alfalfa Hay, tons 3/	-	-	1,000	850	4 .60	4 .50	4,600	3,825
Other Hay, tons 3/	-	-	1,900	2,050	1 .80	2 .00	3,420	4,100

1/ Planted for all purposes. 2/ Production divided by harvested acres rounded to whole bushels.
3/ Estimate carried forward from earlier forecast. 4/ Yield in pounds.

Table 2-- KANSAS CROP PRODUCTION FORECAST, SEPTEMBER 1, 1999, BY DISTRICTS
Crop And District	Acres Planted, All Purposes 1/		Acres Harvested for Grain 1/			Yield per Acre		Production
	1998	1999	1998	1999	% Prev. Year	1998	1999	1998	1999	% Prev. Year
	------------ 1,000 Acres ------------					Bushels		1,000 Bushels
CORN
Northwest	500	520	489	499	102	153	145	74,890	72,550	97
West Central	254	290	229	258	113	149	141	34,090	36,300	106
Southwest	900	850	873	815	93	176	188	153,620	153,100	100
North Central	220	283	205	262	128	125	120	25,545	31,480	123
Central	98	88	83	74	89	121	134	10,025	9,940	99
South Central	330	264	314	244	78	141	140	44,395	34,150	77
Northeast	380	418	363	393	108	128	96	46,490	37,600	81
East Central	215	213	200	189	95	110	91	22,035	17,200	78
Southeast	103	74	94	66	70	84	80	7,860	5,280	67
State	3,000	3,000	2,850	2,800	98	147	142	418,950	397,600	95
SORGHUM GRAIN
Northwest	190	210	176	197	112	92	84	16,253	16,551	102
West Central	321	340	304	324	107	92	82	28,042	26,557	95
Southwest	560	540	527	508	96	70	64	36,842	32,270	88
North Central	600	577	563	544	97	93	80	52,577	43,474	83
Central	580	562	553	523	95	75	78	41,651	40,724	98
South Central	532	642	500	601	120	63	69	31,307	41,256	132
Northeast	252	224	240	216	90	99	73	23,856	15,713	66
East Central	173	222	162	215	133	81	66	13,122	14,098	107
Southeast	292	283	275	272	99	74	65	20,350	17,557	86
State	3,500	3,600	3,300	3,400	103	80	73	264,000	248,200	94
SOYBEANS
Northwest	28	51	28	51	183	50	50	1,395	2,550	183
West Central	16	20	16	20	128	45	42	705	840	119
Southwest	44	65	44	64	147	50	46	2,174	2,944	135
North Central	217	295	217	294	136	38	31	8,272	9,114	110
Central	137	165	136	163	120	31	34	4,196	5,542	132
South Central	253	240	248	236	95	38	36	9,535	8,500	89
Northeast	545	563	541	559	103	36	29	19,455	16,211	83
East Central	635	614	623	602	97	27	22	16,556	13,244	80
Southeast	675	687	649	661	102	20	19	12,712	12,605	99
State	2,550	2,700	2,500	2,650	106	30	27	75,000	71,550	95

1/ Districts may not add to State due to rounding.

Production of sorghum grain is forecast at 580 million bushels, down 1 percent from the August forecast but 12 percent above the 1998 production. Area harvested and to be harvested was unchanged from August, at 8.50 million acres, 10 percent higher than the previous year. The forecast U.S. yield, at 68.2 bushels per acre, was down 1 bushel from last month but 0.9 bushel higher than last year's yield.

Soybean production is forecast at a record high 2.78 billion bushels, down 3 percent from August 1 but up 1 percent from last year's record of 2.76 billion bushels. Based on September 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 37.9 bushels per acre, down 1.3 bushels from last month and 1 bushel below 1998. Acreage for harvest is estimated at a record 73.3 million acres, unchanged from August 1 but up 3 percent from 1998.

All wheat production is placed at 2.31 billion bushels, down less than 1 percent from August forecast and 10 percent from 1998. Yield is forecast at 42.3 bushels per acre. This is down 0.3 bushels from last month.

Table 3-- UNITED STATES CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1, 1999
Crop & Unit	Planted 1/		Harvested		Yield per Acre		Production
	1998	1999	1998	1999	1998	1999	1998	1999
	1,000 Acres				Per Unit		(000's)
All Wheat, bu. 2/	65,871	62,733	59,002	54,467	43 .2	42 .3	2,550,383	2,306,671
Corn Grain, bu.	80,187	77,611	72,604	70,955	134 .4	132 .2	9,761,085	9,380,947
Sorghum Grain, bu.	9,626	9,299	7,723	8,499	67 .3	68 .2	519,933	580,031
Soybeans, bu.	72,375	74,145	70,811	73,261	38 .9	37 .9	2,756,794	2,778,392
All Hay, tons 2/	-	-	60,016	62,051	2 .52	2 .59	151,338	160,769
Alfalfa Hay, tons 2/	-	-	23,642	23,968	3 .47	3 .47	82,010	83,160
Other Hay, tons 2/	-	-	36,374	38,083	1 .91	2 .04	69,328	77,609

1/ Planted for all purposes. 2/ Estimate carried forward from earlier forecast.

Table 4-- KANSAS AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS
Commodity	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998
	Million Dollars
Wheat & Flour	663 .3	907 .2	715 .1	411 .1	773 .8
Total Feed Grains	398 .8	492 .2	628 .8	605 .0	486 .0
Live Animals & Meat (Excluding Poultry)	587 .3	772 .0	788 .0	684 .2	714 .0
Hides & Skins	235 .1	323 .3	289 .3	282 .7	228 .7
Soybeans & Products	160 .4	210 .1	186 .3	287 .7	291 .7
Feeds & Fodders	144 .6	164 .8	181 .3	186 .3	192 .4
Fats, Oils, & Greases	81 .9	148 .5	116 .6	88 .1	117 .3
Seeds	18 .3	17 .3	21 .0	38 .6	25 .2
Sunflowers & Oils	14 .4	28 .0	20 .1	24 .3	20 .9
Dairy Products	10 .0	6 .9	3 .3	3 .9	3 .5
Other	3 .7	3 .5	3 .9	3 .9	3 .6
Total	2,317 .6	3,073 .8	2,953 .8	2,615 .7	2,857 .2

The USDA released its second official estimate of 1999 corn and soybean production. It also made revisions in its estimates of spring and durum production. Corn production was pegged at 9,381 million bushels, 1.9 percent below the August estimate but toward the high end of the range of industry analysts' pre-release estimates. The September report is based on crop conditions as they prevailed around September 1. The September crop report's yield projection was 132.2 bushels.

The USDA also released revised projections for 1999/2000 corn supply-demand. The most significant changes were (1) beginning stocks were reduced 30 million bushels (due to an unusual 35 million bushel increase in "old crop" exports). Conversely, the projection for "new crop" corn exports was lowered by 60 million bushels; and (2) as a consequence of these changes in the supply:demand figures, corn ending stocks were reduced by 95 million bushels. The midpoint of the USDA's projected price range was raised $.05 and now stands at $1.95 -- equal to last year's price of $1.95. Given the seasonal tendency for feed grain prices to decline into harvest, the "tightness" in both storage and transport capacity, and considering the possible effects of the "Marketing Loan" program, it seems likely that December corn futures could make an attempt to "test" its previous contract low of $1.94 (set in early July). The nearby corn futures contract could actually trade below the national average loan rate of $1.89, if large Loan Deficiency Payment (LDP's) induce farmers to sell grain rather than store the crop under loan and if the USDA makes further reductions in its export projection.

Another factor which could contribute to weakness in feed grain prices is the slow pace of export sales. As of early September, export commitments of corn were 363 million bushels, 50 million bushels more than last year, but well below the twenty-four year average which is 457 million bushels. On "average", corn export commitments as of this date account for 25 percent of total annual exports. This year, commitments are only 20 percent of projected exports.

The soybean crop was a record 2,778 million bushels, 3.2 percent less than the August estimate but only 2 million bushels less than the average of industry expectations. The September crop report's yield projection was 37.9 bushels.

The USDA also released revised projections for 1999/2000 soybean supply-demand. Beginning stocks were reduced 20 million bushels, while usage was cut 32 million bushels. However, projected ending stocks have shrunk by 80 million bushels from the August estimate. The decrease in ending stocks, while widely expected, pushes stocks to 17 percent of usage, more than last year's 14 percent, well above the ten year average of 12 percent, and the largest stocks/use ratio since 1990/91. The midpoint of the USDA's projected price range was raised $.30 and now stands at $4.80, down $.20 from last year's $5.00.

The USDA is projecting robust export demand for this year resulting in exports of 895 million bushels. That would put 1999/2000 exports at the third highest on record. The record for exports was 929 million bushels set in 1981/82. As of the beginning of September, soybean export sales totaled 144 million bushels, 35 million bushels less than a year ago and "behind schedule" to meet the USDA's latest projection for annual exports. This year's sales have accounted for 16 percent of the projected annual exports. On average, sales as of this date account for 22 percent of annual exports.

The soybean price seasonal suggests that cash prices will achieve a harvest low in October. Consequently, November soybean futures could decline to $4.50-4.75. Prices will probably not "test" the $4.05 low that was set in early July. However, there is a "gap" on the November futures chart at $4.35 and, if export projections continue to decline, its possible that there might be an attempt to "fill the gap" . Following the harvest lows, soybean prices could stage a "average" post-harvest recovery due to expected reductions in S. American production and possible increases in world

consumption stimulated by the current low prices.

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