Released: August 11, 2000
Volume 00, No. 8

Corn production is expected to total 464.8 million bushels, up from the previous year's record high of 420.2 million bushels. This year's production is up 11 percent from last year. Planted acreage was 3.40 million acres, 250,000 acres above a year ago. Acreage expected to be harvested for grain is 3.25 million acres, up 270,000 acres from last year. Corn yields are expected to average 143 bushels per acre, 2 bushels above the 141 bushels per acre in 1999.

Kansas sorghum grain production is forecast at 243.2 million bushels, down 6 percent from the 258.4 million bushels in 1999. Yields are expected to average 76 bushels per acre, unchanged from last year's yield. Planted acreage is 3.40 million acres, down 200,000 acres from 1999. Sorghum acreage harvested for grain, at 3.20 million acres, is down 6 percent from 1999.

Soybean production is forecast at a record 91.2 million bushels, up 16 percent from last year's production of 78.4 million bushels. Yield is forecast at 32 bushels per acre, up 3 bushels from last year's yield. Harvested acreage is expected to be 2.85 million acres, up from the 2.80 million acres harvested last year.

Cotton production is expected to total 40,500 bales in 2000. Planted acreage was a record 40,000 acres, up from 33,000 last year. Thirty-seven thousand acres are expected to be harvested.

Apple production is forecast at 7.00 million bushels for 2000, down 3 percent from the 7.20 million in 1999.

Table 1-- KANSAS CROP PRODUCTION, AUGUST 1, 2000
Crop & Unit	Planted 1/		Harvested		Yield per Acre 2/		Production
	1999	2000	1999	2000	1999	2000	1999	2000
	1,000 Acres				Per Unit		(000's)
All Wheat, bu.	10,000	9,800	9,200	9,300	47	39	432,400	362,700
Winter Wheat, bu.	10,000	9,800	9,200	9,300	47	39	432,400	362,700
Oats, bu.	120	110	70	50	47	48	3,290	2,400
Corn Grain, bu.	3,150	3,400	2,980	3,250	141	143	420,180	464,750
Sorghum Grain, bu.	3,600	3,400	3,400	3,200	76	76	258,400	243,200
Soybeans, bu.	2,850	2,900	2,800	2,850	28	32	78,400	91,200
Dry Beans, cwt. 3/	22 .0	18 .0	20 .9	17 .0	1,850	1,800	387	306
Cotton, 480 lb. bales 3/	33 .0	40 .0	28 .0	37 .0	375	525	21 .9	40 .5
All Hay, tons	-	-	2,700	2,800	2 .69	2 .36	7,255	6,605
Alfalfa Hay, tons	-	-	850	850	4 .40	4 .10	3,740	3,485
Other Hay, tons	-	-	1,850	1,950	1 .90	1 .60	3,515	3,120
Apples, lbs.	-	-	-	-	-	-	7,200	7,000

1/ Planted for all purposes. 2/ Production divided by harvested acres rounded to whole bushels. 3/ Yield in pounds.

The 2000 sorghum grain production forecast is 578 million bushels, down 3 percent from 1999. Based on August 1 conditions, yield is forecast at 69.5 bushels per acre, down 0.2 bushels from 1999. Yield decreases are expected in 7 of the top 11 producing States, mainly in the western part of the growing area. Two states are expecting yield increases, mainly in the central and eastern part of the growing area. Kansas and Texas, the two leading sorghum states, expect yields similar to last year. Texas's forecast for 63 bushels will tie last year's record yield for the state. The highest forecast yield is for Missouri which, at 97 bushels, would be as state record.

Corn production is forecast at 10.4 billion bushels, up 10 percent from last year and up 6 percent from 1998. Based on August 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 141.9 bushels per acre, up 8.1 bushels from a year ago. If realized, this would be the largest production and the highest yield on record since 1866 when corn estimates began. Acreage for harvest is estimated at 73.1 million acres, down 29,000 acres from June but up 4 percent from 1999.

Soybean production is forecast at a record high 2.99 billion bushels, up 13 percent from 1999 and 9 percent above the previous record of 2.74 billion bushels set in 1998. Based on August 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 40.7 bushels per acre, up 4.2 bushels from 1999. This is the second highest yield since the 1994 record of 41.4 bushels per acre. Acreage for harvest is estimated at a record 73.5 million acres, up 1 percent from 1999 and unchanged from the June acreage estimate.

Table 2-- UNITED STATES CROP PRODUCTION, AUGUST 1, 2000
Crop & Unit	Planted 1/		Harvested		Yield per Acre		Production
	1999	2000	1999	2000	1999	2000	1999	2000
	1,000 Acres				Per Unit		(000)
All Wheat, bu.	62,814	62,946	53,909	54,445	42.7	41.6	2,302,443	2,263,192
Winter Wheat, bu.	43,431	43,349	35,572	35,401	47.8	45.0	1,699,989	1,594,321
Oats, bu.	4,670	4,472	2,453	2,452	59.6	62.3	146,218	152,745
Barley, bu.	5,223	5,702	4,758	5,235	59.2	58.8	281,853	308,020
Corn Grain, bu.	77,431	79,579	70,537	73,059	133.8	141.9	9,437,337	10,369,369
Sorghum Grain, bu.	9,288	9,005	8,544	8,315	69.7	69.5	595,166	577,831
Soybeans, bu.	73,780	74,501	72,476	73,474	36.5	40.7	2,642,908	2,988,669
Dry Beans, cwt. 2/	2,023 .0	1,740 .9	1,877 .0	1,580 .6	1,770	1,630	33,230	25,764
Cotton, 480 lb. bales 2/	14,873 .5	15,532 .0	13,424 .9	14,188 .0	607	648	16,968 .0	19,159 .1
All Hay, tons	-	-	63,160	62,191	2.52	2.46	159,077	153,255
Alfalfa Hay, tons	-	-	23,985	23,767	3.50	3.32	83,924	78,796
Other Hay, tons	-	-	39,175	38,424	1.92	1.94	75,153	74,459
Apples, lbs. 4/	-	-	-	-	-	-	10,579 .6	10,677 .1
Peaches, lbs. 3/ 4/	-	-	-	-	-	-	2,525 .4	2,677 .1

1/ Planted for all purposes. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Estimate carried forward from earlier forecast. 4/ Reported in millions.

Table 3-- KANSAS CROP PRODUCTION FORECAST, AUGUST 1, 2000, BY DISTRICTS
Crop And District	Acres Planted, All Purposes		Acres Harvested for Grain			Yield per Acre		Production
	1999	2000	1999	2000	% Prev. Year	1999	2000	1999	2000	% Prev. Year
	------------ 1,000 Acres ------------					Bushels		1,000 Bushels
WINTER WHEAT
Northwest	1,100	1,090	1,025	1,035	101	47	35	48,569	36,500	75
West Central	1,217	1,200	1,075	1,155	107	46	36	49,773	41,400	83
Southwest	1,635	1,600	1,470	1,500	102	54	37	79,380	55,900	70
North Central	1,344	1,340	1,250	1,255	100	49	39	60,960	49,500	81
Central	1,590	1,530	1,436	1,460	102	46	42	66,364	62,000	93
South Central	2,384	2,322	2,254	2,210	98	45	39	102,332	87,200	85
Northeast	174	170	170	160	94	44	48	7,562	7,700	102
East Central	157	157	150	150	100	35	40	5,250	6,000	114
Southeast	399	391	370	375	101	33	44	12,210	16,500	135
State	10,000	9,800	9,200	9,300	101	47	39	432,400	362,700	84
CORN
Northwest	559	566	539	551	102	146	124	78,895	68,300	87
West Central	296	311	274	295	108	133	127	36,400	37,400	103
Southwest	921	983	888	947	107	181	187	160,800	177,270	110
North Central	240	268	225	256	114	115	107	25,795	27,340	106
Central	102	132	88	120	136	126	133	11,125	15,980	144
South Central	332	354	314	338	108	148	155	46,490	52,360	113
Northeast	395	382	374	365	98	98	123	36,685	44,990	123
East Central	210	235	193	220	114	84	105	16,305	23,160	142
Southeast	95	169	85	158	186	90	114	7,685	17,950	234
State	3,150	3,400	2,980	3,250	109	141	143	420,180	464,750	111
SORGHUM GRAIN
Northwest	190	181	175	165	94	94	67	16,450	11,100	67
West Central	375	315	358	300	84	88	73	31,504	21,900	70
Southwest	611	593	571	553	97	67	65	38,257	35,700	93
North Central	567	556	537	524	98	86	69	46,182	36,400	79
Central	580	539	549	509	93	79	83	43,371	42,100	97
South Central	572	575	538	542	101	64	80	34,452	43,400	126
Northeast	215	196	206	187	91	84	93	17,304	17,400	101
East Central	185	136	176	128	73	70	74	12,320	9,500	77
Southeast	305	309	290	292	101	64	88	18,560	25,700	138
State	3,600	3,400	3,400	3,200	94	76	76	258,400	243,200	94
SOYBEANS
Northwest	36	44	36	43	121	47	39	1,685	1,670	99
West Central	23	30	22	29	135	34	46	740	1,325	179
Southwest	73	102	72	99	138	49	48	3,540	4,710	133
North Central	286	268	280	262	94	35	25	9,895	6,545	66
Central	181	221	175	214	122	36	34	6,360	7,181	113
South Central	282	305	278	301	108	37	43	10,340	12,870	124
Northeast	610	623	603	615	102	30	35	18,190	21,725	119
East Central	683	633	677	626	92	24	26	16,100	16,464	102
Southeast	676	674	658	661	100	18	28	11,550	18,710	162
State 1/	2,850	2,900	2,800	2,850	102	28	32	78,400	91,200	116

1/ Districts may not add to State due to rounding.

The USDA released its first official estimate of 2000 corn and soybean production. It also made revisions in its estimates of winter, spring and durum production. Corn production was pegged at a record 10.37 billion bushels, 3.6 percent above the USDA's July projection and very close to the high end of the range of industry analysts' pre-release estimates. The previous record crop was 10.05 billion bushels (set in 1994). The August report is based on crop conditions as they prevailed around August 1. Although corn crop conditions have declined slightly since then, conditions are still well above average for this time of year. The August crop report's yield projection was 141.9 bushels. The previous record yield was 138.6 (in 1994).

The USDA also released revised projections for 2000/01 corn supply-demand. The most significant changes were (1) beginning stocks were reduced 25 million bushels (mostly due to an 25 million bushel increase in "old crop" exports); similarly, the projection for "new crop" corn exports was also raised by 75 million bushels; (2) feed and residual was increased by 50 million bushels; and (3) corn ending stocks were increased by 207 million bushels. As a consequence of these changes in the supply:demand figures, the midpoint of the USDA's projected price range was lowered $.05 and now stands at $1.65 -- $.15 lower than last year's price of $1.80. If this forecast is correct, this will be the lowest price since 1986/87, when the annual average price was $1.50.

Given the seasonal tendency for feed grain prices to decline into harvest, the extreme "tightness" in storage capacity, and considering the possible effects of the "Marketing Loan" program, it seems likely that December corn futures could make an attempt to set new contract lows between now and harvest and may trade down to $1.70. If the market trades lower than $1.70, perhaps due to the crop getting larger in succeeding production reports, corn futures may fall was low as $1.50.

Another factor which could contribute to weakness in feed grain prices is the slow pace of export sales. As of early August, export sales of "new crop" corn were estimated to be 196 million bushels. This figure includes an estimated 37 million bushels of "old crop" export sales that are expected to be "rolled over" to new crop year. Although export sales are 52 million bushels more than last year, they are well below the twenty-five year average which is 367 million bushels. On "average", corn export commitments as of this date account for 20 percent of total annual exports. This year, commitments are only 9 percent of projected exports.

The soybean crop was a record 2,989 million bushels, 1.7 percent more than the USDA's July projection and 45 million bushels more than the average of industry expectations. The previous record crop was 2,741 million bushels (set in 1998). The August crop report's yield projection was 40.7 bushels. If the August yield estimate is correct, this will be the second highest yield on record. The record yield is 41.4 (set in 1994).

The USDA also released revised projections for 2000/01 soybean supply-demand. Beginning stocks were reduced 10 million bushels, while usage was increased 56 million bushels. Projected ending stocks have shrunk by 15 million bushels from the July projection. The decrease in ending stocks, which was unexpected, still has soybean stocks at 17 percent of usage, more than last year's 10 percent, and well above the ten year average of 12 percent. It's also the largest stocks/use ratio since 1990/91. The midpoint of the USDA's projected price range was left unchanged at $4.35, down $.30 from last year's price of $4.65. If this forecast is correct, this will be the lowest price since 1972/73, when the annual average price was $4.37.

The USDA is projecting robust export demand for this year resulting in record exports of 1,010 million bushels. When soymeal exports are included in the calculations, approximately 1,322 million bushels of soybeans will be exported neat year _ about 47 percent of total disappearance. That would put 2000/01 combined soybean:soymeal exports the highest on record. The previous record for combined exports was 1,270 million bushels set in 1999/2000. As of the beginning of August, "new crop" soybean export sales totaled 103 million bushels, 33 million bushels more than a year ago. This figure includes an estimated 15 million bushels of "old crop" export sales that are expected to be "rolled over" to new crop year. Although export sales are above last year, they are "behind schedule" to meet the USDA's latest projection for annual exports. This year's sales have accounted for 10 percent of the projected annual exports. On average, sales as of this date account for 17 percent of annual exports.

The soybean price seasonal suggests that cash prices will achieve a harvest low in October. Consequently, November soybean futures could decline to the $4.00-$4.25. Prices will probably not "test" the $4.05 low that was set in early July of 1999. However, if the final soybean crop ends up being 75-125 million bushels than currently estimated, it's possible that November futures will fall below the $4.00 level. Following the harvest lows, soybean prices could stage an "above average" post-harvest recovery if low prices stimulate the expected increase in soybean:soymeal exports. Furthermore, sub-$4.00 U.S. soybean prices this Fall could possibly result in some reduction in the S. American soybean production -- either due to a reduction in area, a cut back in input usage, or a combination of both factors.

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