Released: November 9, 2000
Volume 00, No. 11

Kansas corn production is forecast at 416.0 million bushels, unchanged from the previous forecast but 1 percent below last year's crop (see table 1). Yields are expected to average 128 bushels per acre, unchanged from the previous forecast but 13 bushels below last year's yield. Acreage harvested for grain, at 3.25 million, is unchanged from the previous forecast but up 270,000 acres from 1999.

Sorghum production is expected to total 176.7 million bushels, unchanged from the October forecast but down 32 percent from last year. Yields are forecast to average 57 bushels per acre, unchanged from October 1 but down 19 bushels from last year. Acreage for harvest is expected to total 3.10 million, unchanged from the previous forecast but down 300,000 acres from 1999.

The soybean crop is expected to total 56.7 million bushels, 5 percent below October 1 and 30 percent below last year's crop. Yields are expected to average 21 bushels per acre, down 1 bushel from last month and 8 bushels below last year's yield. Acreage for harvest is expected to total 2.70 million, unchanged from the previous month but down 100,000 acres from 1999.

Table 1-- KANSAS CROP PRODUCTION, NOVEMBER 1, 2000 1/
Crop & Unit	Planted 2/		Harvested		Yield per Acre		Production
	1999	2000	1999	2000	1999	2000	1999	2000
	1,000 Acres				Per Unit		(000's)
Winter Wheat, bu.	10,000	9,800	9,200	9,400	47	37	432,400	347,800
Oats, bu.	120	110	70	50	47	44	3,290	2,200
Barley, bu.	16	8	13	7	45	35	585	245
Corn, Grain, bu.	3,150	3,400	2,980	3,250	141	128	420,180	416,000
Sorghum, Grain, bu.	3,600	3,400	3,400	3,100	76	57	258,400	176,700
Soybeans, bu.	2,850	2,900	2,800	2,700	29	21	81,200	56,700
All Sunflowers, lbs	280	290	267	275	1,520	1,100	405,750	302,500
Dry Beans, cwt. 3/	22 .0	18 .0	20 .9	17 .0	1,850	1,700	387	289
Cotton, 480 lb. bales 3/	33 .0	40 .0	28 .0	37 .0	375 .0	525 .0	21 .9	40 .5
All Hay, tons	-	-	2,700	2,800	2 .69	2 .17	7,255	6,070
Alfalfa Hay, tons	-	-	850	850	4 .40	3 .70	3,740	3,145
Other Hay, tons	-	-	1,850	1,950	1 .90	1 .50	3,515	2,925

1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. 2/ Planted for all purposes. 3/ Yield in pounds.

Sorghum production is forecast at 463 million bushels, down less than 1 percent from the October forecast and 22 percent below the 1999 total. Area harvested and to be harvested was unchanged from October, at 7.67 million acres but down 10 percent from the previous year. The U.S. yield is forecast at 60.4 bushels per acre, down 0.3 bushel from last month and 9.3 bushels below 1999.

Soybean production is forecast at a record high 2.78 billion bushels, down 2 percent from October 1 but 5 percent above 1999. The yield forecast, at 38.0 bushels per acre, decreased 0.7 bushel from last month but is 1.4 bushels above the 1999 final yield. Acreage for harvest is estimated at a record 73.0 million acres, unchanged from October 1 but up 1 percent from 1999. Yield decreases in the Western Corn Belt and Great Plains regions more than offset yield increases in the mid-Atlantic States and Ohio. Reduced yields in the Corn Belt were a result of lower pod counts.

Table 2-- UNITED STATES CROP PRODUCTION, NOVEMBER 1, 2000 1/
Crop & Unit	Planted 2/		Harvested		Yield per Acre		Production
	1999	2000	1999	2000	1999	2000	1999	2000
	1,000 Acres				Per Unit		(000's)
All Wheat, bu.	62,714	62,529	53,823	53,028	42 .7	41 .9	2,299,010	2,223,440
Winter Wheat, bu.	43,331	43,348	35,486	35,022	47 .8	44 .6	1,696,580	1,562,733
Oats, bu.	4,673	4,477	2,453	2,324	59 .6	64 .2	146,193	149,195
Barley, bu.	5,194	5,844	4,734	5,201	59 .2	61 .1	280,292	317,865
Rye, bu.	1,582	1,335	383	302	28 .8	28 .5	11,038	8,619
Corn, Grain, bu.	77,431	79,579	70,537	73,009	133 .8	137 .7	9,437,337	10,053,942
Sorghum, Grain, bu.	9,288	9,005	8,544	7,665	69 .7	60 .4	595,166	463,251
Soybeans, bu.	73,730	74,501	72,446	73,024	36 .6	38 .0	2,653,758	2,777,036
All Sunflowers, lbs.	3,553	2,866	3,441	2,775	1,262	1,338	4,341,862	3,712,457
Dry Beans, cwt. 3/ 4/	2,023 .0	1,740 .9	1,877 .0	1,579 .4	1,770	1,621	33,230	25,603
Cotton, 480 lb. bales 4/	14,873 .5	15,532 .0	13,424 .9	13,519 .0	607	622	16,968 .0	17,509 .8
All Hay, tons	-	-	63,160	61,591	2 .52	2 .48	159,077	152,651
Alfalfa Hay, tons	-	-	23,985	23,317	3 .50	3 .43	83,924	79,971
Other Hay, tons	-	-	39,175	38,274	1 .92	1 .90	75,153	72,680

1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. 2/ Planted for all purposes. 3/ Estimates discontinued for Colorado, Indiana, Maryland, New Jersey, Ohio, and Virginia beginning in 2000 4/ Yields in pounds.

The USDA released its fourth official estimate of 2000 corn and soybean production. It also made revisions in its estimates of spring and durum production. Corn production was pegged at 10,054 million bushels, 138 million bushels below the October estimate. The November estimate is also 20 million bushels smaller than the average of industry analysts' pre-release estimates. However, the 2000 corn crop is 617 million bushels larger than last year's.

The USDA also released projections for 2000/2001 corn supply-demand. There were no changes which is, in itself, significant. Generally speaking, when the size of the crop is reduced, some downward adjustments are made in demand projections. In the case of corn, those adjustments usually occur in the feed and residual category which, this year, accounts for 58 percent of total corn disappearance.

As a consequence of these changes in the supply:demand figures, corn ending stocks were reduced by 138 million bushels and the midpoint of the USDA's projected price range was raised $.05 and now stands at $1.90 -- $.10 more than last year's price of $1.80.

So far this year, the pattern of corn prices has behaved in a "contra-seasonal" manner. In fact, since August, national average corn prices have risen $.27/bushel. Given the seasonal tendency for feed grain prices to decline into harvest; considering the "tightness" in both storage capacity; and allowing for the possible effects of the "Marketing Loan" program, it seemed likely that December corn futures would attempt to "test" its previous contract low of $1.85 (set August 11).

Reports from grain merchandisers indicate that the expected "harvest hedging" pressure has been delayed due to farmer's favorable cash flow that was generated by accelerated government payments and LDP redemptions. However, the corn is still there, some of it is on the ground in piles and the recent rains will increase the urgency to move the grain. It's anticipated that the nearby corn futures contract will trade sideways to down over the next 45-60 days. Corn futures could "test" the previous life-of-contract lows if the USDA significantly reduces its export projection in either the December or January S&D projections.

At this moment, it appears that corn prices (both futures and basis) have rallied based in anticipation of a smaller crop and strong demand. Unless demand is greater than currently projected, there may not be much further upside left in this market until next Spring. Producers may want to consider protecting any unpriced grain (by buying puts) or they may want to sell now and take advantage of the rally in basis (which has occurred over the last two months).

Soybean Crop Reduced But Still A Record. USDA Cuts Projections for Demand and Ending Stocks But Lowers Price by $.20.

The November soybean crop was 2,777 million bushels, 1.6 percent less than the October estimate but only 6 million bushels less than the average of industry expectations. However, the 2000 soybean crop is a record and 123 million bushels larger than last year's.

The USDA also released revised projections for 2000/2001soybean supply-demand. Both crush and exports were reduced by 15 million bushels each. Projected ending stocks have shrunk by 15 million bushels from the October estimate. The decrease in ending stocks, while widely expected, pushes stocks to 12.9 percent of usage, more than last year's 10.6 percent, and above the ten year average of 12 percent. The midpoint of the USDA's projected price range was lowered $.20 and now stands at $4.70, up $.05 from last year's $4.65.

The soybean price seasonal suggests that cash prices set their seasonal lows in October. During October, the November soybean futures contract came within a dime of "testing" the $4.45 low that was set on July 17. Assuming that the harvest low has been set, soybean prices could stage a "average" post-harvest recovery based on steady demand and possible increases in world consumption that may have been stimulated by the low prices that currently prevail in the world market for oilseeds.

Doug Hartwig & Mike Miller, Agricultural Statisticians
Eldon J. Thiessen, State Statistician
Eddie Wells, Deputy State Statistician

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