Released: September 12, 2000
Volume 00, No. 9

Soybean production is forecast at 68.4 million bushels, down 25 percent from August 1 and 13 percent below last year's crop. Acreage for harvest is expected to total 2.85 million acres, up 2 percent from last year. Yields are expected to average 24 bushels per acre, down 8 bushels from August 1 and 4 bushels below 1999. Sixty-seven percent of the acreage was dropping leaves. Condition was rated 14 percent good to excellent, 29 percent fair, 34 percent poor, and 23 percent very poor.

The October Crop Report will include results from a special harvested acreage update survey which is being incorporated into the October Agricultural Yield Survey for Kansas.

Table 1-- KANSAS CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1, 2000
Crop & Unit	Planted 1/		Harvested		Yield per Acre 2/		Production
	1999	2000	1999	2000	1999	2000	1999	2000
	1,000 Acres				Per Unit		(000's)
Winter Wheat, bu. 3/	10,000	9,800	9,200	9,300	47	39	432,400	362,700
Corn Grain, bu.	3,150	3,400	2,980	3,250	141	133	420,180	432,250
Sorghum Grain, bu.	3,600	3,400	3,400	3,200	76	60	258,400	192,000
Soybeans, bu.	2,850	2,900	2,800	2,850	28	24	78,400	68,400
Dry Beans, cwt. 3/ 4/	22 .0	18 .0	20 .9	17 .0	1,850	1,800	387	306
Cotton, 480 lb. bales 3/ 4/	33 .0	40 .0	28 .0	37 .0	375	525	21 .9	40 .5
All Hay, tons 3/	-	-	2,700	2,800	2 .69	2 .36	7,255	6,605
Alfalfa Hay, tons 3/	-	-	850	850	4 .40	4 .10	3,740	3,485
Other Hay, tons 3/	-	-	1,850	1,950	1 .90	1 .60	3,515	3,120

1/ Planted for all purposes. 2/ Production divided by harvested acres rounded to whole bushels.
3/ Estimate carried forward from earlier forecast. 4/ Yield in pounds.

Table 2-- KANSAS CROP PRODUCTION FORECAST, SEPTEMBER 1, 2000, BY DISTRICTS
Crop And District	Acres Planted, All Purposes 1/		Acres Harvested for Grain 1/			Yield per Acre		Production
	1999	2000	1999	2000	% Prev. Year	1999	2000	1999	2000	% Prev. Year
	------------ 1,000 Acres ------------					Bushels		1,000 Bushels
CORN
Northwest	559	566	539	551	102	146	110	78,895	60,610	77
West Central	296	311	274	295	108	133	111	36,400	32,740	90
Southwest	921	983	888	947	107	181	180	160,800	170,610	106
North Central	240	268	225	256	114	115	79	25,795	20,220	78
Central	102	132	88	120	136	126	121	11,125	14,570	131
South Central	332	354	314	338	108	148	149	46,490	50,360	108
Northeast	395	382	374	365	98	98	119	36,685	43,470	118
East Central	210	235	193	220	114	84	97	16,305	21,440	131
Southeast	95	169	85	158	186	90	115	7,685	18,230	237
State	3,150	3,400	2,980	3,250	109	141	133	420,180	432,250	103
SORGHUM GRAIN
Northwest	190	181	175	165	94	94	55	16,450	9,100	55
West Central	375	315	358	300	84	88	62	31,504	18,600	59
Southwest	611	593	571	553	97	67	50	38,257	27,700	72
North Central	567	556	537	524	98	86	41	46,182	21,600	47
Central	580	539	549	509	93	79	63	43,371	31,900	74
South Central	572	575	538	542	101	64	65	34,452	35,200	102
Northeast	215	196	206	187	91	84	82	17,304	15,400	89
East Central	185	136	176	128	73	70	65	12,320	8,300	67
Southeast	305	309	290	292	101	64	83	18,560	24,200	130
State	3,600	3,400	3,400	3,200	94	76	60	258,400	192,000	74
SOYBEANS
Northwest	36	44	36	43	121	47	41	1,685	1,750	104
West Central	23	30	22	29	135	34	47	740	1,350	182
Southwest	73	102	72	99	138	49	49	3,540	4,850	137
North Central	286	268	280	262	94	35	20	9,895	5,350	54
Central	181	221	175	214	122	36	23	6,360	4,900	77
South Central	282	305	278	301	108	37	34	10,340	10,200	99
Northeast	610	623	603	615	102	30	27	18,190	16,600	91
East Central	683	633	677	626	92	24	19	16,100	11,900	74
Southeast	676	674	658	661	100	18	17	11,550	11,500	100
State	2,850	2,900	2,800	2,850	102	28	24	78,400	68,400	87

1/ Districts may not add to State due to rounding.

Production of sorghum grain is forecast at 516 million bushels, down 11 percent from August and down 13 percent from 1999. Area harvested and to be harvested for grain, at 8.32 million acres, is unchanged from August, but 3 percent lower than the 1999 harvested grain acreage. The forecast U.S. yield, at 62.1 bushels per acre, is down 7.4 bushels from August and 7.6 bushels from `1999.

Soybean production is forecast at a record high 2.90 billion bushels, down 3 percent from August 1 but 10 percent above 1999. Based on September 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 39.5 bushels per acre, down 1.2 bushels from last month but 3.0 bushels above 1999. Acreage for harvest is estimated at a record 73.5 million acres, unchanged from August 1 but up 1 percent from 1999.

All wheat production is placed at 2.30 billion bushels, up 2 percent from August forecast but down fractionally from 1999. The U.S. yield is forecast at 42.3 bushels per acre. This is up 0.7 bushel from last month.

Table 3-- UNITED STATES CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1, 2000
Crop & Unit	Planted 1/		Harvested		Yield per Acre		Production
	1999	2000	1999	2000	1999	2000	1999	2000
	1,000 Acres				Per Unit		(000's)
All Wheat, bu. 2/	62,814	62,946	53,909	54,445	42.7	42.3	2,302,443	2,302,252
Corn Grain, bu.	77,431	79,579	70,537	73,059	133.8	141.8	9,437,337	10,362,374
Sorghum Grain, bu.	9,288	9,005	8,544	8,315	69.7	62.1	595,166	516,028
Soybeans, bu.	73,780	74,501	72,476	73,474	36.5	39.5	2,642,908	2,899,571
All Hay, tons 2/	-	-	63,160	62,191	2.52	2.46	159,077	153,255
Alfalfa Hay, tons 2/	-	-	23,985	23,767	3.50	3.32	83,924	78,796
Other Hay, tons 2/	-	-	39,175	38,424	1.92	1.94	75,153	74,459

1/ Planted for all purposes. 2/ Estimate carried forward from earlier forecast.

Table 4-- KANSAS AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS
Commodity	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999
	Million Dollars
Wheat & Flour	897 .6	851 .4	506 .3	699 .7	805 .5
Total Feed Grains	492 .2	628 .8	605 .0	486 .0	532 .8
Live Animals & Meat (Excluding Poultry)	772 .0	788 .0	684 .2	714 .0	761 .7
Hides & Skins	323 .3	289 .3	282 .7	228 .7	200 .2
Soybeans & Products	210 .1	186 .3	287 .7	291 .7	178 .9
Feeds & Fodders	164 .8	181 .3	186 .3	192 .4	186 .2
Fats, Oils, & Greases	166 .0	128 .2	95 .7	124 .6	109 .5
Seeds	18 .3	21 .6	38 .6	27 .3	26 .0
Sunflowers & Oils	28 .0	20 .1	24 .3	20 .9	16 .9
Dairy Products	6 .9	3 .3	3 .9	3 .5	2 .6
Other	3 .5	3 .9	3 .9	3 .6	3 .3
Total	3,082 .8	3,102 .3	2,718 .6	2,792 .5	2,823 .7

The USDA released its second official estimate of 2000 corn and soybean production. It also made revisions in its estimates of spring and durum production. Corn production was pegged at 10,362 million bushels, only 7 million bushels (virtually unchanged) below the August estimate. The September estimate is also more than the largest of industry analysts' pre- release estimates. The September crop report's yield projection was 141.8 bushels.

The USDA also released revised projections for 2000/2001corn supply-demand. The most significant changes were:

(1) beginning stocks were reduced 25 million bushels (due to an unusual 25 million bushel increase in "old crop" exports); similarly, the projection for "new crop" corn exports was increased by 50 million bushels and domestic consumption was increased by 65 million bushels;
(2) as a consequence of these changes in the supply:demand figures, corn ending stocks were reduced by 147 million bushels; and
(3) the midpoint of the USDA's projected price range was raised $.05 and now stands at $1.70 -- $.10 less than last year's price of $1.80.

Given the seasonal tendency for feed grain prices to decline into harvest; considering the "tightness" in both storage capacity; and allowing for the possible effects of the "Marketing Loan" program, it seems likely that December corn futures will attempt to "test" its previous contract low of $1.85 (set August 11). It's anticipated that the nearby corn futures contract could trade down to $1.70, particularly if large Loan Deficiency Payment (LDP's) induce farmers to sell grain rather than store the crop under loan.

One other negative factor in the outlook for feed grain prices is the slow pace of corn export sales. As of the beginning of September, export sales of "new crop" corn were estimated to be 400 million bushels. While that's 37 million bushels more than last year, it is only 18 percent of projected annual exports. On average, as of the beginning of September, 25 percent of total annual exports are already "on the books".

The soybean crop was a record 2,900 million bushels, 3 percent less than the August estimate but only 4 million bushels more than the average of industry expectations. The September crop report's yield projection was 39.5 bushels.

The USDA also released revised projections for 2000/2001 soybean supply-demand. Beginning stocks were reduced 15 million bushels, while usage was cut 6 million bushels. However, projected ending stocks have shrunk by 100 million bushels from the August estimate. The decrease in ending stocks, while widely expected, pushes stocks to 13 percent of usage, more than last year's 9.7 percent, and above the ten year average of 12 percent. The midpoint of the USDA's projected price range was raised $.30 and now stands at $4.75, up $.10 from last year's $4.65.

The USDA is projecting record export demand for this year resulting in exports of 1,000 million bushels. When soymeal exports are combined with whole soybean exports, the combined figure accounts for 47 percent of total soybean disappearance. As of the beginning of September, soybean export sales totaled 199 million bushels, 55 million bushels more than a year ago and "nearly on schedule" to meet the USDA's latest projection for annual exports. This year's sales have accounted for 20 percent of the projected annual exports. On average, sales as of this date account for 22 percent of annual exports.

The soybean price seasonal suggests that cash prices will weaken as harvest progresses and could achieve a near term low in October. It is expected that the November soybean futures could decline to the $4.75 level. Prices will probably not "test" the $4.45 low that was set on July 17. Following the harvest lows, soybean prices could stage a "average" post-harvest recovery due to expected strong export sales and possible increases in world consumption that have been stimulated by the low prices that currently prevail in the world market.

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