Released: August 10, 2001
Volume 01, No. 8

The Kansas wheat crop is estimated at 344.4 million bushels, up 5 percent from the July 1 forecast but 1 percent smaller than the 2000 crop (see table 1). Yield is estimated at 41 bushels per acre, up 4 bushels from a year ago. Acreage harvested for grain, at 8.40 million acres, is unchanged from July 1 but down 1 million acres from last year.

Corn production is expected to total 393.7 million bushels, down 5 percent from the previous year's production of 416.0 million bushels. Planted acreage was 3.30 million acres, 150,000 acres below a year ago. Acreage expected to be harvested for grain is 3.10 million acres, down 100,000 acres from last year. Corn yields are expected to average 127 bushels per acre, 3 bushels below the 130 bushels per acre in 2000.

Kansas sorghum grain production is forecast at 251.3 million bushels, up 33 percent from the 188.8 million bushels in 2000. Yields are expected to average 67 bushels per acre, up 8 bushels from last year's yield. Planted acreage is 4.0 million acres, up 500,000 acres from 2000. Sorghum acreage harvested for grain, at 3.75 million acres, is up 17 percent from 2000.

Soybean production is forecast at a record 89.9 million bushels, up 80 percent from last year's production of 50.0 million bushels. Yield is forecast at 31 bushels per acre, up 11 bushels from last year's yield. Harvested acreage is expected to be 2.90 million acres, up from the 2.50 million acres harvested last year.

Cotton production is expected to total 21,000 bales in 2001. Planted acreage was a record 44,000 acres, up from 40,000 last year. Thirty-seven thousand acres are expected to be harvested.

Apple production is forecast at 4.5 million bushels for 2001, up 50 percent from the 3.0 million in 2000.

Table 1-- KANSAS CROP PRODUCTION, AUGUST 1, 2001
Crop & Unit	Planted 1/		Harvested		Yield per Acre 2/		Production
	2000	2001	2000	2001	2000	2001	2000	2001
	1,000 Acres				Per Unit		(000's)
All Wheat, bu.	9,800	9,900	9,400	8,400	37	41	347,800	344,400
Winter Wheat, bu.	9,800	9,900	9,400	8,400	37	41	347,800	344,400
Oats, bu.	110	100	50	45	44	55	2,200	2,475
Corn Grain, bu.	3,450	3,300	3,200	3,100	130	127	416,000	393,700
Sorghum Grain, bu.	3,500	4,000	3,200	3,750	59	67	188,800	251,250
Soybeans, bu.	2,950	3,000	2,500	2,900	20	31	50,000	89,900
Dry Beans, cwt. 3/	18 .0	15 .0	16 .0	14 .0	1,810	1,850	289	259
Cotton, 480 lb. bales 3/	40 .0	44 .0	37 .0	37 .0	288	272	22 .2	21 .0
All Hay, tons	-	-	2,800	3,300	2 .34	2 .23	6,540	7,370
Alfalfa Hay, tons	-	-	900	950	4 .10	3 .80	3,690	3,610
Other Hay, tons	-	-	1,900	2,350	1 .50	1 .60	2,850	3,760
Apples, lbs.	-	-	-	-	-	-	3,000	4,500

1/ Planted for all purposes. 2/ Production divided by harvested acres rounded to whole bushels. 3/ Yield in pounds.

The 2001 sorghum grain production forecast is 544 million bushels, up 16 percent from 2000. Based on August 1 conditions, yield is forecast at 62.0 bushels per acre, up 1.1 bushels from 2000. Yield increases are expected in 8 of the top 11 producing States, mainly in the western part of the growing area. Kansas, the leading sorghum producer, is expecting a yield 8 bushels higher than last year, while Texas, the second leading sorghum producer, expects a yield 10 bushels below last year. Acreage expected to be harvested for grain in the U.S. in 2001, at 8.78 million acres, is up 14 percent from the 2000 harvested grain acreage.

Corn production is forecast at 9.27 billion bushels, down 7 percent from last year and 2 percent from 1999. Based on August 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 133.9 bushels per acre, down 3.2 bushels from a year ago. If realized, this would be the lowest production since 1997. Acreage for harvest is estimated at 69.2 million acres, down 100,000 acres from June and 5 percent from 2000.

Soybean production is forecast at a record high 2.87 billion bushels, up 4 percent from 2000 and 8 percent from 1999. Based on August 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 38.7 bushels per acre, up 0.6 bushel from 2000. This is the third highest yield behind 38.9 bushels per acre in 1997 and 1998. Acreage for harvest, at a record 74.1 million acres, are up 2 percent from the 2000 acreage.

Table 2-- UNITED STATES CROP PRODUCTION, AUGUST 1, 2001
Crop & Unit	Planted 1/		Harvested		Yield per Acre		Production
	2000	2001	2000	2001	2000	2001	2000	2001
	1,000 Acres				Per Unit		(000)
All Wheat, bu.	62,529	59,604	53,028	49,331	41.9	40.2	2,223,440	1,984,575
Winter Wheat, bu.	43,348	41,318	35,022	31,657	44.6	43.8	1,562,733	1,385,048
Oats, bu.	4,477	4,404	2,324	2,186	64.2	62.0	149,195	135,445
Barley, bu.	5,844	5,088	5,201	4,514	61.1	58.8	317,865	265,537
Corn Grain, bu.	79,545	76,009	72,732	69,191	137.1	133.9	9,968,358	9,266,397
Sorghum Grain, bu.	9,195	10,047	7,723	8,777	60.9	62.0	470,070	544,138
Soybeans, bu.	74,496	75,216	72,718	74,137	38.1	38.7	2,769,665	2,867,474
Dry Beans, cwt. 2/	1,756 .2	1,431 .9	1,606 .4	1,337 .3	1,646	1,638	26,440	21,902
Cotton, 480 lb. bales 2/	15,517 .2	16,194 .0	13,053 .0	14,338 .0	632	670	17,188 .3	20,003 .0
All Hay, tons	-	-	59,854	63,833	2.54	2.48	152,183	158,241
Alfalfa Hay, tons	-	-	23,077	23,750	3.48	3.38	80,347	80,166
Other Hay, tons	-	-	36,777	40,083	1.95	1.95	71,836	78,075
Apples, lbs. 4/	-	-	-	-	-	-	10,648 .7	9,615 .4
Peaches, lbs. 3/ 4/	-	-	-	-	-	-	2,599 .8	2,537 .3

1/ Planted for all purposes. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Estimate carried forward from earlier forecast. 4/ Reported in millions.

Table 3-- KANSAS CROP PRODUCTION FORECAST, AUGUST 1, 2001, BY DISTRICTS
Crop And District	Acres Planted, All Purposes		Acres Harvested for Grain			Yield per Acre		Production
	2000	2001	2000	2001	% Prev. Year	2000	2001	2000	2001	% Prev. Year
	------------ 1,000 Acres ------------					Bushels		1,000 Bushels
WINTER WHEAT
Northwest	1,090	1,000	1,055	875	83	32	40	34,110	35,000	103
West Central	1,200	1,130	1,160	695	60	33	38	38,420	26,300	68
Southwest	1,530	1,540	1,450	1,195	82	36	41	52,430	49,500	94
North Central	1,290	1,380	1,225	1,200	98	39	41	47,345	49,100	104
Central	1,560	1,630	1,510	1,505	100	40	42	60,480	62,900	104
South Central	2,210	2,250	2,120	2,015	95	37	39	79,000	79,200	100
Northeast	200	230	187	210	112	44	43	8,265	9,100	110
East Central	210	240	198	225	114	40	52	8,000	11,600	145
Southeast	510	500	495	480	97	40	45	19,750	21,700	110
State	9,800	9,900	9,400	8,400	89	37	41	347,800	344,400	99
CORN
Northwest	621	560	562	535	95	104	118	58,695	63,100	108
West Central	315	260	286	235	82	97	98	27,605	23,100	84
Southwest	931	810	899	780	87	176	170	158,310	132,300	84
North Central	248	230	215	209	97	89	105	19,150	21,900	114
Central	128	140	112	126	113	114	94	12,730	11,900	94
South Central	384	410	357	385	108	146	133	52,195	51,200	98
Northeast	432	480	409	455	111	125	125	51,215	56,800	111
East Central	246	250	225	229	102	94	89	21,055	20,300	96
Southeast	145	160	135	146	108	111	90	15,045	13,100	87
State	3,450	3,300	3,200	3,100	97	130	127	416,000	393,700	95
SORGHUM GRAIN
Northwest	180	210	152	191	126	49	74	7,378	14,100	191
West Central	364	575	321	541	169	58	71	18,577	38,200	206
Southwest	557	680	523	644	123	51	55	26,546	35,600	134
North Central	609	610	529	565	107	46	76	24,219	42,750	177
Central	562	575	527	532	101	62	68	32,665	36,000	110
South Central	598	695	550	657	120	60	52	32,937	34,400	104
Northeast	194	195	185	185	100	87	90	16,016	16,700	104
East Central	157	160	144	151	105	65	81	9,288	12,300	132
Southeast	279	300	269	284	106	79	75	21,174	21,200	100
State	3,500	4,000	3,200	3,750	117	59	67	188,800	251,250	133
SOYBEANS
Northwest	53	60	48	58	121	35	41	1,663	2,400	144
West Central	25	25	24	24	100	26	33	634	800	126
Southwest	89	100	87	98	113	45	45	3,928	4,400	112
North Central	321	340	270	328	122	18	32	4,894	10,600	217
Central	213	225	186	217	117	21	29	3,840	6,400	167
South Central	293	295	257	285	111	34	33	8,779	9,500	108
Northeast	629	680	609	665	109	22	36	13,616	24,100	177
East Central	670	650	541	630	117	12	27	6,395	17,300	271
Southeast	657	625	478	595	125	13	24	6,251	14,400	230
State 1/	2,950	3,000	2,500	2,900	116	20	31	50,000	89,900	180

1/ Districts may not add to State due to rounding.

The USDA released its first official estimate of 2001 corn and soybean production. Corn production was pegged at 9.27 billion bushels, 2.4 percent below the USDA's July projection and very close to average of industry analysts' pre-release estimates. Last year's crop was 9.968 billion bushels. The August report is based on crop conditions as they prevailed around August 1. Corn crop conditions have declined since then and conditions are now below average for this time of year. Yield models (based on weekly crop condition and progress) have projected the national corn yield at 132.7 bushels (plus or minus 3.6 bushels).

The USDA also released revised projections for 2001/02 corn supply:demand. The most significant changes were (1) beginning stocks were reduced 50 million bushels (due to a 50 million bushel increase in "old crop" exports); similarly, the projection for "new crop" corn exports was also raised by 25 million bushels; (2) feed and residual use was increased by 50 million bushels; and (3) corn ending stocks were reduced by 369 million bushels. The USDA also dropped their estimate for 2001/02 total feedgrain ending stocks by 10 million metric tons (the equivalent of 394 million bushels of corn). That reduces their estimate of feedgrain endings stocks/use to 15.2 percent, down sharply from last year's 20.2 percent.

As a consequence of these changes in the supply:demand figures, the midpoint of the USDA's projected price range for corn was raised $.15 and now stands at $2.10 _ $.25 higher than last year's price of $1.85. If this forecast is correct, this will be the highest price since 1997/98, when the annual average price was $2.45.

Milo production was estimated to be 544 million bushels, 16 percent below the USDA's July projection and below the average of industry analysts' pre-release estimates. Last year's crop was 470 million bushels. This week's milo yield model (based on weekly crop condition and progress) now projects the national milo yield at 58.4 bushels (plus or minus 2.3 bushels).

The soybean crop was a record 2,867 million bushels, 2.3 percent less than the USDA's July projection but only 3 million bushels less than the average of industry expectations. The previous record crop was 2,770 million bushels (set in 2000). Yield models (based on soybean's weekly crop condition and progress) indicate that nation's soybean yield has declined about half-a-bushel since the crop survey was conducted.

The USDA also released revised projections for 2001/02 soybean supply:demand. Beginning stocks were reduced 5 million bushels, but usage was reduced 28 million bushels. Nevertheless, projected ending stocks have shrunk by 45 million bushels from the July projection. The decrease in ending stocks, which was expected, now has soybean stocks at 10.6 percent of usage, more than last year's 8.9 percent, and equal to the ten year average of 10.6 percent. The midpoint of the USDA's projected price range was raised to $4.85, up $.30 from last year's price of $4.55. If this forecast is correct, this will be the highest price since 1998/99, when the annual average price was $4.93.

John Cole and Mike Miller, Agricultural Statisticians
Eldon J. Thiessen, State Statistician
Eddie Wells, Deputy State Statistician

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