Released: July 11, 2001
Volume 01, No. 7

Kansas growers planted 20.2 million acres to the four major crops (wheat, sorghum, corn, and soybeans), up 3 percent from 2000. Wheat seeded last fall totaled 9.9 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast but up 1 percent (100,000 acres) from last year. Acreage for harvest is expected to be 8.4 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast but 11 percent (1,000,000 acres) below a year ago.

Sorghum acreage planted and to be planted, at 4.0 million acres, is up 14 percent from last year. Kansas ranks first in the nation in sorghum acreage. The acreage intended for harvest as grain, at 3.75 million acres, is up 17 percent from last year.

Corn planted acreage, at 3.3 million acres, is 4 percent below last year's planted acres. Farmers planted 38 percent of their corn acreage with varieties developed using biotechnology. Twenty-six percent of the acreage was planted with insect resistant only varieties containing bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) and 11 percent of the acreage with herbicide resistant varieties developed using biotechnology. Stacked gene varieties, those containing both insect and herbicide resistance, were planted on 1 percent of the corn acreage. Acreage expected to be harvested for grain is 3.1 million acres, down 3 percent from last year.

Soybean plantings are expected to total 3.0 million acres, 2 percent above a year ago and the largest planted acreage of soybeans in Kansas history. Producers planted 80 percent of the soybean acreage to herbicide resistant varieties in 2001. Expected acreage for harvest, at 2.9 million acres, is 16 percent above last year and, if realized, will be the largest harvested acreage for soybeans in Kansas history.

Oats planted in 2001, at 100,000 acres, is 9 percent below last year. Oats expected to be harvested for grain, at 45,000 acres, is down 5,000 acres from the previous year. Barley planted acreage, at 7,000 acres, decreased 1,000 acres from last year. Expected acreage for harvest, at 7,000 acres, is unchanged from last year. All sunflowers planted, at 330,000 acres, and oil type varieties planted, at 300,000 acres, are both record highs. Non-oil varieties are planted on 30,000 acres. All sunflowers harvested, at 318,000 acres, and oil type varieties, at 290,000 acres, will also be record highs, if realized. Hay acreage to be harvested is expected to total 3.3 million acres, up 18 percent from last year. Of the total hay acreage, 950,000 acres are alfalfa hay, up 50,000 acres from last year. Acreage of dry beans planted, at 15,000 acres, is down 3,000 acres from last year. Harvested acreage is forecast at 14,000 acres. Cotton acreage is estimated at 44,000 acres in 2001, up 4,000 acres from last year.

Table 1-- KANSAS WHEAT PRODUCTION, JULY 1, 2001
District	Acres Planted		Acres Harvested			Yield Per Acre		Production
	2000	2001	2000	2001	% of Prev. Yr	2000	2001	2000	2001	% of Prev. Yr
WINTER WHEAT	- - - - - - - - 1,000 Acres - - - - - - - -				Percent	Bushels		1,000 Bushels		Percent
Northwest	1,090	1,000	1,055	875	83	32	38	34,110	33,100	97
West Central	1,200	1,130	1,160	695	60	33	34	38,420	23,500	61
Southwest	1,530	1,540	1,450	1,195	82	36	38	52,430	46,000	88
North Central	1,290	1,380	1,225	1,200	98	39	40	47,345	48,100	102
Central	1,560	1,630	1,510	1,505	100	40	41	60,480	61,600	102
South Central	2,210	2,250	2,120	2,015	95	37	37	79,000	73,900	94
Northeast	200	230	187	210	112	44	41	8,265	8,600	104
East Central	210	240	198	225	114	40	52	8,000	11,800	148
Southeast	510	500	495	480	97	40	44	19,750	21,000	106
State	9,800	9,900	9,400	8,400	89	37	39	347,800	327,600	94

Table 2-- CORN, SORGHUM, AND SOYBEANS, KANSAS, BY DISTRICTS, 2000-2001
District	Corn Planted			Sorghum Planted			Soybeans Planted
	2000	2001	% of Prev. Yr	2000	2001	% of Prev. Yr	2000	2001	% of Prev. Yr
	1,000 Acres		%	1,000 Acres		%	1,000 Acres		%
Northwest	621	560	90	180	210	117	53	60	113
West Central	315	260	83	364	575	158	25	25	100
Southwest	931	810	87	557	680	122	89	100	112
North Central	248	230	93	609	610	100	321	340	106
Central	128	140	109	562	575	102	213	225	106
South Central	384	410	107	598	695	116	293	295	101
Northeast	432	480	111	194	195	101	629	680	108
East Central	246	250	102	157	160	102	670	650	97
Southeast	145	160	110	279	300	108	657	625	95
State	3,450	3,300	96	3,500	4,000	114	2,950	3,000	102

Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.37 billion bushels. This is up 3 percent from June 1, but down 13 percent from 2000. The U.S. yield is forecast at 43.2 bushels per acre, up 2.0 bushels per acre from June 1. Hard Red Winter Wheat, at 781 million bushels, is up 9 percent from a month ago. White Winter production is down for the second consecutive month, and now totals 204 million bushels. Soft Red Winter, at 380 million bushels, is down 4 percent from the last forecast where reduced acreage more than offset higher yields.

Table 3-- CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1, 2000-2001
Crop	Planted	Harvested		Yield Per Acre		Production
	2001	2000	2001	2000	2001	2000	2001
	- - - - 1,000 Acres - - - -			Bushels		1,000 Bushels
KANSAS
Winter Wheat	9,900	9,400	8,400	37	39	347,800	327,600
Oats	100	50	45	44	55	2,200	2,475
UNITED STATES
All Wheat	59,604	53,028	49,331	41 .9	40 .0	2,223,440	1,973,854
Winter Wheat	41,318	35,022	31,657	44 .6	43 .2	1,562,733	1,366,192
Oats	4,404	2,324	2,186	64 .2	60 .5	149,195	132,150

Non-oil type varieties were planted on 572,000 acres, down 1,000 acres from a year ago. Dry bean planted acreage is estimated at 1.43 million acres this year, down 19 percent from last year and 30 percent below two years ago.

Table 4-- CROP ACREAGE, 2000- 2001
Crop	Kansas				United States
	Planted		Harvested		Planted		Harvested
	2000	2001	2000	2001	2000	2001	2000	2001
	- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1,000 Acres - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Corn 1/	3,450	3,300	3,200	3,100	79,545	76,109	72,732	69,291
Sorghum 1/	3,500	4,000	3,200	3,750	9,195	9,747	7,723	8,857
Soybeans	2,950	3,000	2,500	2,900	74,496	75,416	72,718	74,337
Oats	110	100	50	45	4,477	4,404	2,324	2,186
Barley	8	7	7	7	5,844	5,088	5,201	4,514
Dry Edible Beans	18 .0	15 .0	16 .0	14 .0	1,756 .2	1,426 .2	1,606 .4	1,333 .5
Sunflowers	220	330	204	318	2,792	2,750	2,629	2,660
All Hay	-	-	2,800	3,300	-	-	59,854	63,833
Alfalfa	-	-	900	950	-	-	23,077	23,750
Other Hay	-	-	1,900	2,350	-	-	36,777	40,083
Cotton	40 .0	44 .0	37 .0	2/	15,517 .2	16,289 .0	13,053 .0	2/

1/ Harvested area is for grain. 2/ No estimate currently available.

Kansas wheat stocks in all positions totaled 154.2 million bushels on June 1, 9 percent below last June. Wheat stored at off-farm locations (mills, elevators, warehouses, and processors) totaled 146.2 million bushels, which accounted for 95 percent of the total grain stocks.

Sorghum grain in all positions totaled 34.8 million bushels, 33 percent below last year's level. Off-farm stocks accounted for 26.8 million bushels and on-farm stocks for 8.0 million bushels.

Kansas corn stocks in all locations, at 111.0 million bushels, were 4 percent higher than last June. Off-farm stocks were 78.0 million bushels, which accounted for 70 percent of the total corn stocks. On-farm stocks, at 33.0 million bushels, are unchanged from last June.

Off-farm oat stocks were 329,000 bushels, down 47 percent from last June.

Kansas soybeans in all locations totaled 18.3 million bushels, a 30 percent decrease from June 2000. Off-farm stocks, at 13.3 million bushels, were down 30 percent from last year and accounted for 73 percent of the total soybean stocks. On-farm stocks totaled 5.0 million bushels, down 2 million bushels from the previous year.

Table 5-- STOCKS OF GRAIN - JUNE 1, 2001, WITH COMPARISONS
Grain	Position	Kansas			United States
		June 1, 2000	March 1, 2001	June 1, 2001	June 1, 2000	March 1, 2001	June 1, 2001
		1,000 Bushels
All Wheat	On-Farms	7,000	21,000	8,000	226,780	384,750	197,270
	Off-Farms 1/	161,899	196,771	146,183	722,968	953,648	675,855
	TOTAL	168,899	217,771	154,183	949,748	1,338,398	873,125
Sorghum Grain	On-Farms	13,000	19,000	8,000	27,300	40,100	17,500
	Off-Farms 1/	39,160	62,382	26,798	99,606	127,027	57,112
	TOTAL	52,160	81,382	34,798	126,906	167,127	74,612
Corn	On-Farms	33,000	60,000	33,000	2,029,800	3,600,000	2,230,800
	Off-Farms 1/	74,059	128,310	78,010	1,556,138	2,442,999	1,693,408
	TOTAL	107,059	188,310	111,010	3,585,938	6,042,999	3,924,208
Oats	On-Farms	*	*	*	36,000	55,800	32,050
	Off-Farms 1/	624	444	329	40,031	54,127	40,577
	TOTAL	*	*	*	76,031	109,927	72,627
Barley	On-Farms	*	*	*	25,400	58,600	28,850
	Off-Farms 1/	25	18	16	85,924	103,544	77,409
	TOTAL	*	*	*	111,324	162,144	106,259
Soybeans	On-Farms	7,000	9,000	5,000	370,000	780,000	365,000
	Off-Farms 1/	19,054	26,219	13,334	404,425	623,908	343,320
	TOTAL	26,054	35,219	18,334	774,425	1,403,908	708,320
1/ Includes stocks at mills, elevators, warehouses, terminals, & processors. * Data not published to avoid disclosure of individual operations.

Dave Ranek & Mike Miller, Agricultural Statisticians

Some of the figures in the USDA's July wheat crop estimate were larger than expected. At 1,566 million bushels, the winter wheat figure was 16 million bushels above the average of the trade's pre-release guesstimates and 3.4 percent above the June figure. While 3.4 percent may seem like a large increase, on average, there is a 2 percent increase in winter wheat production between the July and the June reports.

Wheat export activity is the lowest on record for this date. As of June 28, only 208 million bushels of wheat had been committed for export (including an estimated 30 million bushels of "food aid" donations which has either been shipped or has been contracted for by the CCC but not yet shipped). On average, 27 percent of annual wheat grain exports are booked by this date.

Despite the low level of export commitments, the USDA raised its projection for exports to 1,050 million bushels, up 50 million bushels from their June projection. Approximately 1,010 million bushels of that export projection consists of wheat as grain. Using the average ratio of July commitments/annual exports, we should have 273 million bushels sold by now. Presumably, the USDA increased its projection for U.S. exports because they lowered their projection for wheat production of three of our principle export competitors (the EU, Canada, and Australia) by 158 million bushels.

The USDA reduced their estimate of wheat feeding by 25 million bushels. Some decrease in wheat feeding had been expected due to the high premium that wheat had over feed grains. The USDA raised its estimate of ending stocks by 25 million bushels and they lowered their price forecast by $.05. The midpoint of the range of the USDA's forecast for wheat now stands at $3.00, $.38 higher than last year's price.

Seasonally, KCBT wheat futures prices tend to bottom in June. The prospect for a further reduction in the Canadian and Australian wheat crops must be offset by the larger than expected U.S. winter wheat crop, the generally good prospects for the U.S. spring wheat crop, and the lackluster performance of U.S. exports to date. However, with cash prices at or near loan level, producers with on-farm storage face relatively low risks if they continue to store their grain under loan. However, producers who must place their grain in commercial storage (and therefore incur higher storage costs), may want to consider selling their grain and replacing their ownership by purchasing at or near-to-the- money December of March call options.

Return to the KASS Homepage