Released: September 14, 2001
Volume 01, No. 9

Soybean production is forecast at 87.0 million bushels, down 3 percent from August 1 but 74 percent above last year's crop. Acreage for harvest is expected to total 2.90 million acres, up 16 percent from last year. Yields are expected to average 30 bushels per acre, down 1 bushel from August 1 but 10 bushels above 2000. Nineteen percent of the acreage was dropping leaves, compared to 62 percent last year. Condition was rated 42 percent good to excellent, 38 percent fair, 15 percent poor, and 5 percent very poor.

Table 1-- KANSAS CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1, 2001
Crop & Unit	Planted 1/		Harvested		Yield per Acre 2/		Production
	2000	2001	2000	2001	2000	2001	2000	2001
	1,000 Acres				Per Unit		(000's)
Winter Wheat, bu. 3/	9,800	9,900	9,400	8,400	37	41	347,800	344,400
Corn Grain, bu.	3,450	3,300	3,200	3,100	130	127	416,000	393,700
Sorghum Grain, bu.	3,500	4,000	3,200	3,750	59	62	188,800	232,500
Soybeans, bu.	2,950	3,000	2,500	2,900	20	30	50,000	87,000
Dry Beans, cwt. 3/ 4/	18 .0	15 .0	16 .0	14 .0	1,810	1,850	289	259
Cotton, 480 lb. bales 3/ 4/	40 .0	44 .0	37 .0	37 .0	288	272	22 .2	21 .0
All Hay, tons 3/	-	-	2,800	3,300	2 .34	2 .23	6,540	7,370
Alfalfa Hay, tons 3/	-	-	900	950	4 .10	3 .80	3,690	3,610
Other Hay, tons 3/	-	-	1,900	2,350	1 .50	1 .60	2,850	3,760

1/ Planted for all purposes. 2/ Production divided by harvested acres rounded to whole bushels.
3/ Estimate carried forward from earlier forecast. 4/ Yield in pounds.

Table 2-- KANSAS CROP PRODUCTION FORECAST, SEPTEMBER 1, 2001, BY DISTRICTS
Crop And District	Acres Planted, All Purposes 1/		Acres Harvested for Grain 1/			Yield per Acre		Production
	2000	2001	2000	2001	% Prev. Year	2000	2001	2000	2001	% Prev. Year
	------------ 1,000 Acres ------------					Bushels		1,000 Bushels
CORN
Northwest	621	560	562	535	95	104	118	58,695	63,100	108
West Central	315	260	286	235	82	97	98	27,605	23,100	84
Southwest	931	810	899	780	87	176	170	158,310	132,300	84
North Central	248	230	215	209	97	89	105	19,150	21,900	114
Central	128	140	112	126	113	114	94	12,730	11,900	94
South Central	384	410	357	385	108	146	133	52,195	51,200	98
Northeast	432	480	409	455	111	125	125	51,215	56,800	111
East Central	246	250	225	229	102	94	89	21,055	20,300	96
Southeast	145	160	135	146	108	111	90	15,045	13,100	87
State	3,450	3,300	3,200	3,100	97	130	127	416,000	393,700	95
SORGHUM GRAIN
Northwest	180	210	152	191	126	49	65	7,378	12,350	167
West Central	364	575	321	541	169	58	68	18,577	36,900	199
Southwest	557	680	523	644	123	51	50	26,546	32,450	122
North Central	609	610	529	565	107	46	76	24,219	42,750	177
Central	562	575	527	532	101	62	63	32,665	33,300	102
South Central	598	695	550	657	120	60	42	32,937	27,300	83
Northeast	194	195	185	185	100	87	92	16,016	17,100	107
East Central	157	160	144	151	105	65	81	9,288	12,300	132
Southeast	279	300	269	284	106	79	64	21,174	18,050	85
State	3,500	4,000	3,200	3,750	117	59	62	188,800	232,500	123
SOYBEANS
Northwest	53	60	48	58	121	35	41	1,663	2,400	144
West Central	25	25	24	24	100	26	29	634	700	110
Southwest	89	100	87	98	113	45	45	3,928	4,400	112
North Central	321	340	270	328	122	18	31	4,894	10,300	210
Central	213	225	186	217	117	21	29	3,840	6,200	161
South Central	293	295	257	285	111	34	33	8,779	9,500	108
Northeast	629	680	609	665	109	22	36	13,616	24,000	176
East Central	670	650	541	630	117	12	26	6,395	16,600	260
Southeast	657	625	478	595	125	13	22	6,251	12,900	206
State 1/	2,950	3,000	2,500	2,900	116	20	30	50,000	87,000	174

1/ Districts may not add to State due to rounding.

Production of sorghum grain is forecast at 537 million bushels, down 1 percent from August but up 14 percent from 2000. Area harvested and to be harvested for grain, at 8.78 million acres, is unchanged from August, but 14 percent higher than 2000. The forecast U.S. yield, at 61.2 bushels per acre, is down 0.8 bushel from August but up 0.3 bushel from `2000.

Soybean production is forecast at a record high 2.83 billion bushels, down 1 percent from August 1 but 2 percent above 2000. Based on September 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 38.2 bushels per acre, down 0.5 bushel from last month but 0.1 bushel above 2000. Acreage for harvest is estimated at a record 74.1 million acres, unchanged from August 1 but up 2 percent from 2000.

All wheat production is placed at 1.99 billion bushels, up slightly from the August forecast but 10 percent below 2000. The U.S. yield is forecast at 40.4 bushels per acre. This is up 0.2 bushel from last month.

Table 3-- UNITED STATES CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1, 2001
Crop & Unit	Planted 1/		Harvested		Yield per Acre		Production
	2000	2001	2000	2001	2000	2001	2000	2001
	1,000 Acres				Per Unit		(000's)
All Wheat, bu. 2/	62,529	59,604	53,028	49,331	41.9	40.4	2,223,440	1,991,077
Corn Grain, bu.	79,545	76,009	72,732	69,191	137.1	133.5	9,968,358	9,238,356
Sorghum Grain, bu.	9,195	10,047	7,723	8,777	60.9	61.2	470,070	537,110
Soybeans, bu.	74,496	75,216	72,718	74,137	38.1	38.2	2,769,665	2,833,511
All Hay, tons 2/	-	-	59,854	63,833	2.54	2.48	152,183	158,241
Alfalfa Hay, tons 2/	-	-	23,077	23,750	3.48	3.38	80,347	80,166
Other Hay, tons 2/	-	-	36,777	40,083	1.95	1.95	71,836	78,075

1/ Planted for all purposes. 2/ Estimate carried forward from earlier forecast.

Table 4-- KANSAS AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS
Commodity	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000
	Million Dollars
Wheat & Flour	851 .4	506 .3	699 .1	805 .5	721 .5
Total Feed Grains	628 .8	605 .1	486 .1	533 .1	528 .2
Live Animals & Meat (Excluding Poultry)	782 .9	678 .7	709 .7	765 .5	969 .7
Hides & Skins	289 .3	282 .7	228 .7	200 .2	286 .7
Soybeans & Products	186 .3	287 .7	291 .7	178 .9	203 .9
Feeds & Fodders	181 .0	185 .5	191 .7	185 .9	212 .7
Fats, Oils, & Greases	124 .0	92 .1	120 .5	106 .1	81 .2
Seeds	21 .6	38 .7	27 .3	26 .0	29 .9
Sunflowers & Oils	20 .1	24 .3	20 .9	16 .9	23 .0
Dairy Products	3 .3	3 .9	3 .5	2 .6	0 .8
Other	2 .7	2 .7	2 .6	2 .5	2 .5
Total	3,091 .4	2,707 .6	2,781 .9	2,823 .3	3,060 .1

The USDA released its second official estimate of 2001 corn and soybean production. It also made revisions in its estimates of spring and durum production. Corn production was pegged at 9,238 million bushels, 28 million bushels below the August estimate. The September estimate is also more than the largest of industry analysts' pre-release estimates.

The USDA also released revised projections for 2001/02 corn supply-demand. The most significant changes were:

(1) beginning stocks were reduced 65 million bushels (due to an unusual 65 million bushel increase in "old crop" exports); however, the projection for "new crop" corn exports was reduced by 25 million bushels but domestic consumption was increased by 25 million bushels;

(2) as a consequence of these changes in the supply:demand figures, corn ending stocks were reduced by 98 million bushels; and

(3) the midpoint of the USDA's projected price range was raised $.05 and now stands at $2.15 -- $.30 more than last year's price of $1.85.

Given the seasonal tendency for feed grain prices to decline into harvest; and allowing for the possible effects of the "Marketing Loan" program (about 400 million bushels of "old crop" corn will need to be redeemed from CCC loan), it seems likely that December corn futures will trade lower. However, at this time, it's unlikely to "test" its previous contract low of $ 2.02 (set June 25).

One negative factor in the outlook for feed grain prices is the slow pace of corn export sales. As of the beginning of September, export sales of "new crop" corn were estimated to be 306 million bushels. That's 80 million bushels less than last year and it is only 15 percent of projected annual exports. On average, as of the beginning of September, 24 percent of total annual exports are already "on the books".

The soybean crop was a record 2,834 million bushels, 1.1 percent less than the August estimate but above the high end of the range of industry expectations.

The USDA also released revised projections for 2001/02 soybean supply-demand:

(1) Beginning stocks were reduced 10 million bushels, and usage was bumped up by 2 million bushels. However, projected ending stocks have shrunk by 45 million bushels from the August estimate. The decrease in ending stocks, while widely expected, pushes stocks to 9 percent of usage, a bit more than last year's 8.5 percent, and below the ten year average of 10.6 percent.

(2) The midpoint of the USDA's projected price range was raised $.05 and now stands at $4.90, up $.35 from last year's $4.55.

The USDA is projecting soybean exports for this year to be 990 million bushels (10 million bushels less than last year's record exports). When soymeal exports are combined with whole soybean exports, the combined figure accounts for 46 percent of total soybean disappearance. As of the beginning of September, soybean export sales totaled 199 million bushels, 55 million bushels more than a year ago and "nearly on schedule" to meet the USDA's latest projection for annual exports.

The soybean price seasonal suggests that cash prices will weaken as harvest progresses and could achieve a harvest low sometime

in the month of October. It is expected that the November soybean futures could decline to the $4.50 level. Prices will probably not "test" the $4.18 low that was set on April 24. Following the harvest lows, soybean prices may not be able to stage much of a post- harvest recovery due the expectation of another record South American crop (Brazil and Argentina).

Dave Ranek & Mike Miller, Agricultural Statisticians
Eldon J. Thiessen, State Statistician
Eddie Wells, Deputy State Statistician

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