Released: April 3, 2002
Volume 02, No. 4

Sorghum acreage expected to be planted, at 3.80 million acres, is down 5 percent from a year ago. Corn planting intentions totaled 3.3 million, down 4 percent from the 2001 acreage. Soybean planted acreage is expected to be 2.8 million acres, down 2 percent from last year. Oat seedings are expected to be up 60 percent from 2001 at 160,000 acres. Barley seedings, at 10,000 acres, are up from the 9,000 acres planted in 2001.

Sunflower acreage to be planted, at 275,000 acres, is down 18 percent from last year. Dry beans, at 18,000 acres, are up 20 percent from the previous year. All hay for harvest, at 3.2 million acres, is down 3 percent from 2001. Cotton is expected to be planted on 68,000 acres, up 26,000 acres from last year.

Table 1-- PROSPECTIVE PLANTINGS - MARCH 1, 2002
Crop	Acreage Planted or to be Planted
	Kansas			United States
	2001	Prospective 2002	2002 as % of 2001	2001	Prospective 2002	2002 as % of 2001
	1,000 Acres		Percent	1,000 Acres		Percent
Wheat, All	9,800	9,400	96	59,617	59,004	99
Winter	9,800	9,400	96	41,078	41,076	100
Durum	-	-	-	2,910	2,842	98
Other Spring	-	-	-	15,629	15,086	97
Sorghum, All	4,000	3,800	95	10,252	9,015	88
Corn, All	3,450	3,300	96	75,752	79,047	104
Soybeans	2,850	2,800	98	74,105	72,966	98
Oats	100	160	160	4,403	5,129	116
Barley	9	10	111	4,967	5,078	102
Hay, All 1/	3,300	3,200	97	63,511	63,743	100
Sunflowers, All	335	275	82	2,653	2,493	94
Beans, Dry Edible	15 .0	18 .0	120	1,429 .9	1,766 .5	124
Cotton	42 .0	68 .0	162	15,787 .8	14,770 .5	94
1/ Acreage for harvest.

Spring wheat. All cotton plantings for 2002 are expected to total 14.8 million acres, 6 percent below last year. Low prices and uncertainty with the farm bill led to the decrease in planted acreage intentions. Upland acreage is expected to total 14.5 million acres, down 7 percent from 2001. Growers intend to increase their plantings of American-Pima cotton to 274,500 acres, up 5 percent from a year ago.

Table 2-- STOCKS OF GRAIN - MARCH 1, 2002, WITH COMPARISONS
Grain	Position	Kansas			United States
		Mar. 1, 2001	Dec. 1, 2001	Mar. 1, 2002	Mar. 1, 2001	Dec. 1, 2001	Mar. 1, 2002
		1,000 Bushels
All Wheat	On Farms	21,000	28,000	19,000	384,750	517,890	338,500
	Off Farms 1/	196,771	240,240	185,169	953,648	1,105,565	872,223
	TOTAL	217,771	268,240	204,169	1,338,398	1,623,455	1,210,723
Sorghum Grain	On Farms	19,000	38,000	21,000	40,100	72,400	38,100
	Off Farms 1/	62,382	139,780	85,970	127,027	241,477	156,151
	TOTAL	81,382	177,780	106,970	167,127	313,877	194,251
Corn	On Farms	60,000	95,000	54,000	3,600,000	5,275,000	3,355,000
	Off Farms 1/	128,310	167,019	130,481	2,442,999	2,989,715	2,441,473
	TOTAL	188,310	262,019	184,481	6,042,999	8,264,715	5,796,473
Oats	On Farms	*	*	*	55,800	58,100	39,800
	Off Farms 1/	444	393	703	54,128	56,117	52,997
	TOTAL	*	*	*	109,928	114,217	92,797
Barley	On Farms	*	*	*	58,600	92,600	46,000
	Off Farms 1/	18	88	49	103,544	102,587	95,742
	TOTAL	*	*	*	162,144	195,187	141,742
Soybeans	On Farms	9,000	19,000	11,000	780,000	1,240,000	687,000
	Off Farms 1/	26,219	49,857	30,532	623,908	1,035,618	648,976
	TOTAL	35,219	68,857	41,532	1,403,908	2,275,618	1,335,976
1/ Includes stocks at mills, elevators, warehouses, terminals, & processors. * On-farm stocks are no longer published separately for Kansas.

    

On March 28, the USDA released the results of its survey of farmers' spring planting intentions. The March 1 Stocks Report was also released on that date. Corn plantings were 79.05 million acres, 4.8 percent more than last year and near the high end of the range of expectations . Grain sorghum acreage was pegged at 9.02 million acres, down 9 percent from last year, and 1.1 million acres below the low end of industry expectations.

Farmers indicated that they intended to plant only 72.97 million acres to soybeans, down 1.5 percent from last year and below the low end of the range of industry expectations. Not since 1991 has the soybean seedings figure fallen below the low end of the range of industry expectations.

Spring wheat planting intentions, at 15.09 million acres, were down 3.5 percent from last year and were at the low end of the range of trade estimates. Durum acres were posted at 2.84 million acres, down 2.3 percent from last year and 7 percent below the low end of the range of industry expectations. The report estimated total wheat plantings (winter, spring, and durum) at 59.04 million acres, down 1 percent from 2001 plantings and the smallest figure since 1972.

The total number of acres planted to all crops was 2.2 million acres less than industry expectations. Total 2002 prospective crop plantings (including an estimate for some minor crops for which seedings figures were not reported) are only 215,000 acres more than last year's 262.6 million acres. Since 1996, the first year of "Freedom to Farm". the area seeded to the principle crops has declined 12.2 million acres (about 4.5 percent). The area harvested as hay has increased 2.9 million acres or about 4.7 percent.

The USDA's stocks report indicated that March 1 corn stocks, at 5,796 million bushels, were 247 million bushels smaller than last year but were towards the high end of the range of industry expectations. Corn stocks were also the second largest that they had been in the last thirteen years. The implication of the corn stocks figure is that the USDA will not need to make large changes to its projection of corn feeding in its next supply-demand projection (to be released on April 10).

However, export sales of corn are lagging. As of the middle of March, corn export commitments were about 1,226 million bushels, about 22 million bushels less than last year and nearly 220 million bushels behind the "average" pace needed to meet the USDA's March annual export projection of 1,025 million bushels. It's possible that the smaller exports could add another 50-100 million bushels to the USDA's next projection for corn ending stocks.

Soybean stocks were 1,336 million bushels and 68 million bushels less than last year. The report came in fairly close to the average of industry expectations, suggesting that soybean residual use is about as expected and that the 2001 crop was not seriously over estimated. When soybean stocks are measured as a percent of the total disappearance in the first half of the year U.S. stocks are just 74 percent of usage. That's less than last year's 85 percent and well below the 26 year average of 104 percent. However, when U.S. soybean stocks are combined with the projected new crop supply of S. American soybeans, the combined stocks of soybeans in the Western Hemisphere, while down from last year, are still near record levels (relative to the world soybean imports).

Wheat stocks were 1,211 million bushels and 127 million bushels less than last year. However, the report came in at the high end of the range of industry expectations, suggesting that wheat feed and residual use may be smaller than was projected by the USDA in their March S&D.

Given this latest USDA information and the low level of new crop wheat and soybean prices (close to or below expected 2002 loan rates) farmers have little incentive to make any sales of new crop wheat and oilseeds. Of the three principal crop groups, wheat appears to have the greatest upside price potential. Wheat producers may want to purchase out-of-the-money July or September calls at this time. Wheat prices may rally $.30-$.50 from current levels and purchasing calls now would make it less risky to price wheat later if and when wheat prices do rally.

Feed grain prices have the greatest downside risk. If all prospective corn acres are planted, and if yields are "trend" or better, December 2002 corn futures could fall to or below $1.90 by harvest. However, in many parts of Kansas, new crop feed grains prices are only $.05-$.15 above expected 2002 loan rates. In most years, some combination of factors provide the fuel for a seasonal rally in the Spring or early Summer. In preparation for this rally, feed grain producers may want to purchase out-of-the-money September or December corn call options.

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