Released: August 12, 2002
Volume 02, No. 8

Corn production is expected to total 273.0 million bushels, down 29 percent from the previous year's production of 387.4 million bushels. Planted acreage was 3.15 million acres, 300,000 acres below a year ago. Acreage expected to be harvested for grain is 2.60 million acres, down 450,000 acres from last year. Corn yields are expected to average 105 bushels per acre, 22 bushels below the 127 bushels per acre in 2001.

Kansas sorghum grain production is forecast at 148.8 million bushels, down 36 percent from the 232.5 million bushels in 2001. Yields are expected to average 48 bushels per acre, down 14 bushels from last year's yield. Planted acreage is 3.9 million acres, down 100,000 acres from 2001. Sorghum acreage to be harvested for grain, at 3.10 million acres, is down 17 percent from 2001.

Soybean production is forecast at 62.1 million bushels, down 29 percent from last year's production of 87.4 million bushels. Yield is forecast at 23 bushels per acre, down 9 bushels from last year's yield. Harvested acreage is expected to be 2.70 million acres, down from the 2.73 million acres harvested last year.

Cotton production is expected to total 70,000 bales in 2002. Planted acreage is a record 60,000 acres, up from 40,500 last year. Fifty-five thousand acres are expected to be harvested.

Apple production is forecast at 4.5 million pounds for 2002, up 500,000 pounds from last year's crop.

Table 1-- KANSAS CROP PRODUCTION, AUGUST 1, 2002
Crop & Unit	Planted 1/		Harvested		Yield per Acre 2/		Production
	2001	2002	2001	2002	2001	2002	2001	2002
	1,000 Acres				Per Unit		(000's)
Winter Wheat, bu.	9,800	9,500	8,200	8,000	40	33	328,000	264,000
Oats, bu.	100	160	40	60	53	40	2,120	2,400
Corn Grain, bu.	3,450	3,150	3,050	2,600	127	105	387,350	273,000
Sorghum Grain, bu.	4,000	3,900	3,750	3,100	62	48	232,500	148,800
Soybeans, bu.	2,850	2,800	2,730	2,700	32	23	87,360	62,100
Dry Beans, cwt. 3/	15 .0	18 .0	14 .0	17 .0	1,850	1,600	259 .0	272 .0
Cotton, 480 lb. bales 3/	40 .5	60 .0	35 .5	55 .0	407	611	30 .1	70 .0
All Hay, tons	-	-	3,300	3,050	2 .42	2 .06	7,980	6,270
Alfalfa Hay, tons	-	-	900	1,000	4 .60	3 .40	4,140	3,400
Other Hay, tons	-	-	2,400	2,050	1 .60	1 .40	3,840	2,870
Apples, lbs.	-	-	-	-	-	-	4,000	4,500

1/ Planted for all purposes. 2/ Production divided by harvested acres rounded to whole bushels. 3/ Yield in pounds.

The 2002 sorghum grain production forecast is 380 million bushels, down 26 percent from 2001. If realized, this will be the lowest production since 1956. Based on August 1 conditions, yield is forecast at 50.3 bushels per acre, down 9.6 bushels from 2001. Yield decreases are expected in 9 of the top 11 producing States, mainly in the western part of the growing area. Kansas, the leading sorghum producer, is expecting a yield of 48, down 14 bushels from last year. Texas, the second leading sorghum producer, expects a yield of 46, down 4 bushels from 2001. Acreage expected to be harvested for grain in the U.S. in 2002, at 7.55 million acres, is down 12 percent from the 2001 harvested grain acreage.

Corn production is forecast at 8.89 billion bushels, down 7 percent from last year and 10 percent below 2000. If realized, this would be the lowest production since 1995. Based on August 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 125.2 bushels per acre, down 13.0 bushels from a year ago. Acreage for harvest is estimated at 71.0 million acres, down 1.08 million acres from June but up 3 percent from 2001.

Soybean production is forecast at 2.63 billion bushels, down 9 percent from 2001 and 5 percent below 2000. Based on August 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 36.5 bushels per acre, down 3.1 bushels from 2001. If realized, this would be the lowest production since 1996. Acreage for harvest is estimated at 72.0 million acres, down 1 percent from 2001.

Table 2-- UNITED STATES CROP PRODUCTION, AUGUST 1, 2002
Crop & Unit	Planted 1/		Harvested		Yield per Acre		Production
	2001	2002	2001	2002	2001	2002	2001	2002
	1,000 Acres				Per Unit		(000)
All Wheat, bu.	59,617	60,085	48,653	47,628	40.2	35.4	1,957,643	1,686,306
Winter Wheat, bu.	41,078	41,362	31,295	29,764	43.5	38.9	1,361,479	1,158,710
Oats, bu.	4,403	5,085	1,905	2,633	61.3	54.2	116,856	142,580
Corn Grain, bu.	75,752	78,847	68,808	71,001	138.2	125.2	9,506,840	8,886,009
Sorghum Grain, bu.	10,252	9,290	8,584	7,548	59.9	50.3	514,524	379,509
Soybeans, bu.	74,105	73,043	73,000	72,029	39.6	36.5	2,890,572	2,628,387
Dry Beans, cwt. 2/	1,429 .9	1,874 .3	1,243 .0	1,690 .6	1,572	1,609	19,541	27,207
Cotton, 480 lb. bales 2/	15,768 .5	14,380 .5	13,827 .7	13,112 .4	705	675	20,302 .8	18,439 .0
All Hay, tons	-	-	63,511	64,709	2.47	2.36	156,703	152,616
Alfalfa Hay, tons	-	-	23,812	24,134	3.37	3.09	80,266	74,640
Other Hay, tons	-	-	39,699	40,575	1.93	1.92	76,437	77,976
Apples, lbs. 3/	-	-	-	-	-	-	9,629 .1	9,205 .6

1/ Planted for all purposes. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Reported in millions.

Table 3-- KANSAS CROP PRODUCTION FORECAST, AUGUST 1, 2002, BY DISTRICTS
Crop And District	Acres Planted, All Purposes		Acres Harvested for Grain			Yield per Acre		Production
	2001	2002	2001	2002	% Prev. Year	2001	2002	2001	2002	% Prev. Year
	------------ 1,000 Acres ------------					Bushels		1,000 Bushels
WINTER WHEAT
Northwest	1,100	1,050	980	900	92	40	28	39,270	24,800	63
West Central	1,210	1,200	795	890	112	35	27	27,615	23,900	87
Southwest	1,590	1,530	1,210	925	76	41	27	49,410	25,100	51
North Central	1,350	1,220	1,155	1,140	99	40	39	45,775	44,600	97
Central	1,510	1,440	1,345	1,410	105	40	38	54,455	52,900	97
South Central	2,140	2,170	1,895	1,870	99	39	31	73,935	57,400	78
Northeast	190	145	165	140	85	45	50	7,405	7,000	95
East Central	230	215	215	210	98	48	41	10,315	8,600	83
Southeast	480	530	440	515	117	45	38	19,820	19,700	99
State	9,800	9,500	8,200	8,000	98	40	33	328,000	264,000	80
CORN
Northwest	588	460	538	260	48	118	92	63,680	24,000	38
West Central	305	240	256	135	53	104	89	26,720	12,000	45
Southwest	846	740	777	680	88	164	158	127,500	107,500	84
North Central	219	230	190	160	84	107	76	20,420	12,200	60
Central	158	160	120	130	108	103	102	12,315	13,300	108
South Central	424	380	359	350	97	131	131	47,075	46,000	98
Northeast	478	490	424	460	108	123	57	52,185	26,000	50
East Central	261	260	229	245	107	98	71	22,465	17,500	78
Southeast	171	190	157	180	115	95	81	14,990	14,500	97
State	3,450	3,150	3,050	2,600	85	127	105	387,350	273,000	71
SORGHUM GRAIN
Northwest	224	210	207	130	63	70	29	14,572	3,750	26
West Central	618	540	570	310	54	66	31	37,693	9,700	26
Southwest	796	735	757	445	59	54	40	41,173	17,800	43
North Central	599	625	572	530	93	78	43	44,406	22,750	51
Central	543	575	514	545	106	60	49	30,941	26,700	86
South Central	645	685	574	645	112	41	51	23,350	33,150	142
Northeast	153	125	147	115	78	89	50	13,037	5,700	44
East Central	138	145	132	125	95	72	71	9,535	8,850	93
Southeast	284	260	277	255	92	64	80	17,793	20,400	115
State	4,000	3,900	3,750	3,100	83	62	48	232,500	148,800	64
SOYBEANS
Northwest	60	75	58	57	98	40	32	2,325	1,800	77
West Central	24	32	20	30	150	35	27	705	800	113
Southwest	94	105	89	100	112	46	40	4,066	4,000	98
North Central	299	326	292	288	98	33	20	9,648	5,700	59
Central	207	216	197	215	109	30	24	5,868	5,100	87
South Central	273	240	235	232	99	36	34	8,457	7,900	93
Northeast	613	628	600	625	104	39	21	23,140	13,100	57
East Central	633	598	620	590	95	31	19	19,038	11,300	59
Southeast	647	580	619	563	91	23	22	14,113	12,400	88
State 1/	2,850	2,800	2,730	2,700	99	32	23	87,360	62,100	71

1/ Districts may not add to State due to rounding.

MARKET IMPLICATIONS
by Billl Tierney, Kansas State University - Extension Service

The USDA released its first official estimate of 2002 corn and soybean production. Corn production was pegged at 8.886 billion bushels, 9.2 percent below the July projection and nearly 200 million bushels below the average of industry analysts' pre-release estimates. Last year's crop was 9.507 billion bushels.

The August report is based on crop conditions as they prevailed around August 1. Corn crop conditions have declined since then and conditions are well below average for this time of year. Yield models (based on weekly crop condition and progress) project the national corn yield at 123.5 bushels (plus or minus 1.7 bushels). The August crop report's yield projection was 125.2 bushels. Last year's yield was 138.2 bushels.

Milo production was estimated to be 380 million bushels, 30 percent below the July projection and far below the low end of the range of industry analysts' pre-release estimates. The August report is based on crop conditions as they prevailed around August 1. This week's milo yield model (based on weekly crop condition and progress) now projects the national milo yield at 50.6 bushels (plus or minus 1.8 bushels). The August crop report's yield projection was 50.3 bushels. Last year's yield was 59.9 bushels.

The USDA also released revised projections for 2002/03 corn supply:demand. The most significant changes were (1) beginning stocks were increased 15 million bushels, (2) feed and residual use was lowered by 150 million bushels; and (3) corn ending stocks were slashed by almost 700 million bushels. The USDA also dropped the estimate for 2002/03 total feed grain ending stocks by 736 million bushels of corn.

As a consequence of these changes in the supply:demand figures, the midpoint of the USDA's projected price range for corn was raised $.50 and now stands at $2.50 which is $.59 higher than last year's price of $1.91.

As of Friday, August 9, the December corn futures contract closed at $2.62. At this time, it seems highly unlikely that the December contract will trade below its previous life-of-contract low of $2.15. If today's crop condition report indicates a further deterioration in the crop's yield potential the December futures upside objective would be $2.95. If yields drop below 120 bushels, futures could trade up to the $3.20 level.

The soybean crop was 2,628 million bushels, 8.1 percent less than the July projection and 83 million bushels less than the average of industry expectations. The August crop report's yield projection was 36.5 bushels. This is the lowest yield since 1995 (when yield was 35.3 bushels). The record yield is 41.4 bushels (set in 1994).

The USDA also released revised projections for 2002/03 soybean supply-demand. Beginning stocks were reduced 15 million bushels, but usage was reduced 170 million bushels. Projected ending stocks have shrunk by 75 million bushels from the July projection. The decrease in ending stocks now has soybean stocks at 5.8 percent of usage, below last year's 6.6 percent, and well below the ten year average of 10.2 percent. The midpoint of the USDA's projected price range was raised to $5.60, up $1.25 from last year's price of $4.35.

The USDA lowered its projection for soybean export demand to 820 million bushels. If correct, that will be the lowest exports since 1993/94 (598 million bushels) and down 135 million bushels from the July projection. When soymeal and soyoil exports are included in the calculations, approximately 1,104 million bushels of soybeans will be exported next year _ about 41 percent of total disappearance. That would put 2002/03 combined soybean:soyproduct exports considerably less than last year's 47 percent.

As of the beginning of August, "new crop" soybean export sales totaled 121 million bushels, 18 million bushels less than a year ago. This figure includes an estimated 47 million bushels of "old crop" export sales that are expected to be "rolled over" to new crop year. Export sales are "on schedule" to meet the USDA's latest projection for annual exports.

The soybean price seasonal suggests that soybean prices will peak early (in August or September 2002) and achieve a seasonal low very late in the year (July or August 2003). If soybean yields decline significantly from current levels, November futures could rise to $7.00.

Dave Ranek and Quentin Wearne, Agricultural Statisticians
Eldon J. Thiessen, State Statistician
Eddie Wells, Deputy State Statistician

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