Released: July 11, 2002
Volume 02, No. 7

Wheat production in Kansas for 2002 is forecast at 272.0 million bushels (see table 1 for estimates by district). The current forecast is down 3 percent from June 1, and 17 percent below last year's production. This is the lowest total production since 1996. Harvested acres are expected to total 8.0 million, unchanged from June 1 but down 200,000 acres from last year. This is the smallest harvested acreage since 1957. Yield is expected to average 34.0 bushels per acre, down 1 bushel from the June 1 forecast and 6 bushels below last year's yield of 40.0. As of July 1, wheat harvest was 87 percent complete, 15 points ahead of last year's progress of 72 percent complete and 30 points ahead of the average.

Kansas growers planted 19.35 million acres to the four major crops (wheat, sorghum, corn, and soybeans), down 4 percent from 2001. Wheat seeded last fall totaled 9.5 million acres, up 100,000 acres from the previous forecast but down 3 percent (300,000 acres) from last year.

Sorghum acreage planted and to be planted, at 3.9 million acres, is down 2 percent from last year. Kansas ranks first in the nation in sorghum acreage. The acreage intended for harvest as grain, at 3.6 million acres, is down 4 percent from last year.

Corn planted acreage, at 3.15 million acres, is 9 percent below last year's planted acres. Farmers planted 43 percent of their corn acreage with varieties developed using biotechnology. Twenty-five percent of the acreage was planted with insect resistant only varieties containing bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) and 15 percent of the acreage with herbicide resistant varieties developed using biotechnology. Stacked gene varieties, those containing both insect and herbicide resistance, were planted on 2 percent of the corn acreage. Acreage expected to be harvested for grain is 2.95 million acres, down 3 percent from last year.

Soybean plantings are expected to total 2.8 million acres, down 50,000 acres from a year ago. Producers planted 83 percent of the soybean acreage to herbicide resistant varieties in 2002. Expected acreage for harvest, at 2.75 million acres, is 1 percent above last year.

Oats planted in 2002, at 160,000 acres, is 60 percent above last year. Oats expected to be harvested for grain, at 60,000 acres, is up 20,000 acres from the previous year. Yield is expected to average 45.0 bushels per acre. Oat production is forecast at 2.7 million bushels. Barley planted acreage, at 10,000 acres, increased 1,000 acres from last year. Expected acreage for harvest, at 9,000 acres, is also 1,000 acres above last year. All sunflowers planted, at 255,000 acres, are down 24 percent from last year. Oil type varieties planted are at 240,000 acres, while non-oil varieties are planted on 15,000 acres. All sunflowers harvested are expected to total 244,000 acres, with oil type varieties accounting for 230,000 harvested acres. Hay acreage to be harvested is expected to total 3.05 million acres, down 8 percent from last year. Of the total hay acreage, 1.0 million acres are alfalfa hay, up 100,000 acres from last year. Acreage of dry beans planted, at 18,000 acres, is up 3,000 acres from last year while harvested acreage is forecast at 17,000 acres. Cotton acreage is estimated at 68,000 planted acres in 2002, up 27,500 acres from last year.

Table 1-- KANSAS WHEAT PRODUCTION, JULY 1, 2002
District	Acres Planted		Acres Harvested			Yield Per Acre		Production
	2001	2002	2001	2002	% of Prev. Yr	2001	2002	2001	2002	% of Prev. Yr
WINTER WHEAT	- - - - - - - - 1,000 Acres - - - - - - - -				Percent	Bushels		1,000 Bushels		Percent
Northwest	1,100	1,050	980	900	92	40	30	39,270	27,100	69
West Central	1,210	1,200	795	890	112	35	28	27,615	24,700	89
Southwest	1,590	1,530	1,210	925	76	41	29	49,410	27,000	55
North Central	1,350	1,220	1,155	1,140	99	40	39	45,775	44,100	96
Central	1,510	1,440	1,345	1,410	105	40	35	54,455	49,700	91
South Central	2,140	2,170	1,895	1,870	99	39	33	73,935	61,800	84
Northeast	190	145	165	140	85	45	49	7,405	6,800	92
East Central	230	215	215	210	98	48	44	10,315	9,300	90
Southeast	480	530	440	515	117	45	42	19,820	21,500	108
State	9,800	9,500	8,200	8,000	98	40	34	328,000	272,000	83

Table 2-- CORN, SORGHUM, AND SOYBEANS, KANSAS, BY DISTRICTS, 2001-2002
District	Corn Planted			Sorghum Planted			Soybeans Planted
	2001	2002	% of Prev. Yr	2001	2002	% of Prev. Yr	2001	2002	% of Prev. Yr
	1,000 Acres		%	1,000 Acres		%	1,000 Acres		%
Northwest	588	460	78	224	210	94	60	75	125
West Central	305	240	79	618	540	87	24	32	133
Southwest	846	740	88	796	735	92	94	105	112
North Central	219	230	105	599	625	104	299	326	109
Central	158	160	101	543	575	106	207	216	104
South Central	424	380	90	645	685	106	273	240	88
Northeast	478	490	103	153	125	82	613	628	102
East Central	261	260	100	138	145	105	633	598	94
Southeast	171	190	111	284	260	92	647	580	90
State	3,450	3,150	91	4,000	3,900	98	2,850	2,800	98

Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.18 billion bushels, the lowest level since 1971. This is down 5 percent from June 1 and down 13 percent from 2001. Acres for harvest as grain are forecast at 29.8 million. This is the smallest harvested acreage since 1917. The U.S. yield is forecast at 39.6 bushels per acre, down 1.4 bushels per acre from June 1. Hard Red Winter Wheat, at 634 million bu shels, is down 6 percent from a month ago. White Winter production is down 1 percent this month and now totals 203 million bushels. Soft Red Winter, at 341 million bushels, is down 5 percent from the last forecast.

Table 3-- CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1, 2001-2002
Crop	Planted	Harvested		Yield Per Acre		Production
	2002	2001	2002	2001	2002	2001	2002
	- - - - 1,000 Acres - - - -			Bushels		1,000 Bushels
KANSAS
Winter Wheat	9,500	8,200	8,000	40	34	328,000	272,000
Oats	160	40	60	53	45	2,120	2,700
UNITED STATES
All Wheat	60,085	48,653	47,628	40 .2	36 .7	1,957,643	1,748,691
Winter Wheat	41,362	31,295	29,764	43 .5	39 .6	1,361,479	1,178,320
Oats	5,085	1,905	2,633	61 .3	56 .1	116,856	147,584

estimated at 2.49 million acres, down 6 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 2.39 million acres, down 7 percent from 2001. Oil type varieties comprised 2.10 million acres this year, 2 percent below 2001. Non-oil type varieties were planted on 391,000 acres, down 123,000 acres from a year ago. Dry bean planted acreage is estimated at 1.86 million acres this year, up 30 percent from last year and 6 percent above two years ago.

Table 4-- CROP ACREAGE, 2001- 2002
Crop	Kansas				United States
	Planted		Harvested		Planted		Harvested
	2001	2002	2001	2002	2001	2002	2001	2002
	- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1,000 Acres - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Corn 1/	3,450	3,150	3,050	2,950	75,752	78,947	68,808	72,081
Sorghum 1/	4,000	3,900	3,750	3,600	10,252	9,290	8,584	7,908
Soybeans	2,850	2,800	2,730	2,750	74,105	72,993	73,000	72,029
Oats 1/	100	160	40	60	4,403	5,085	1,905	2,633
Barley 1/	9	10	8	9	4,967	5,048	4,289	4,499
Dry Edible Beans	15 .0	18 .0	14 .0	17 .0	1,429 .9	1,864 .0	1,243 .0	1,745 .1
Sunflowers	335	255	323	244	2,653	2,486	2,580	2,392
All Hay	-	-	3,300	3,050	-	-	63,511	64,709
Alfalfa	-	-	900	1,000	-	-	23,812	24,134
Other Hay	-	-	2,400	2,050	-	-	39,699	40,575
Cotton	40 .5	68 .0	35 .5	2/	15,768 .5	14,415 .5	13,827 .7	2/

1/ Harvested area is for grain. 2/ No estimate currently available.

Kansas wheat stocks in all positions total 122.1 million bushels on June 1, 22 percent below last June. Wheat stored at off-farm locations (mills, elevators, warehouses, and processors) totaled 109.1 million bushels, which accounts for 89 percent of the total grain stocks.

Sorghum grain in all positions totals 50.4 million bushels, 43 percent above last year's level. Off-farm stocks accounted for 41.4 million bushels and on-farm stocks for 9.0 million bushels.

Kansas corn stocks in all locations, at 103.9 million bushels, are 6 percent lower than last June. Off-farm stocks are 76.9 million bushels, which account for 74 percent of the total corn stocks. On-farm stocks at 27.0 million bushels, are down 6.0 million bushels from last June.

Kansas soybeans in all locations total 19.8 million bushels, a 10 percent increase from June 2001. Off-farm stocks, at 14.3 million bushels, are up 10 percent from last year and account for 72 percent of the total soybean stocks. On-farm stocks total 5.5 million bushels, up 500,000 bushels from the previous year.

Off-farm oat stocks are 216,000 bushels, down 44 percent from last June.

Off-farm barley stocks, at 31,000 bushels, are up 94 percent, or 15,000 bushels, from a year ago.

Table 5-- STOCKS OF GRAIN - JUNE 1, 2002, WITH COMPARISONS
Grain	Position	Kansas			United States
		June 1, 2001	March 1, 2002	June 1, 2002	June 1, 2001	March 1, 2002	June 1, 2002
		1,000 Bushels
All Wheat	On-Farms	8,000	19,000	13,000	197,270	338,500	211,830
	Off-Farms 1/	148,190	184,216	109,137	678,912	871,268	560,075
	TOTAL	156,190	203,216	122,137	876,182	1,209,768	771,905
Sorghum Grain	On-Farms	8,000	21,000	9,000	19,000	38,100	17,300
	Off-Farms 1/	27,140	85,668	41,362	57,411	156,007	88,524
	TOTAL	35,140	106,668	50,362	76,411	194,107	105,824
Corn	On-Farms	33,000	54,000	27,000	2,230,800	3,355,000	2,020,600
	Off-Farms 1/	77,676	130,020	76,920	1,693,158	2,440,261	1,573,385
	TOTAL	110,676	184,020	103,920	3,923,958	5,795,261	3,593,985
Oats	On-Farms	*	*	*	32,050	40,200	28,650
	Off-Farms 1/	388	697	216	40,677	53,157	34,537
	TOTAL	*	*	*	72,727	93,357	63,187
Barley	On-Farms	*	*	*	28,850	46,000	23,210
	Off-Farms 1/	16	48	31	77,409	95,748	69,631
	TOTAL	*	*	*	106,259	141,748	92,841
Soybeans	On-Farms	5,000	11,000	5,500	365,000	687,000	301,200
	Off-Farms 1/	13,055	30,449	14,349	343,180	648,987	382,573
	TOTAL	18,055	41,449	19,849	708,180	1,335,987	683,773
1/ Includes stocks at mills, elevators, warehouses, terminals, & processors. * Data not published to avoid disclosure of individual operations.

MARKET IMPLICATIONS
by Billl Tierney, Kansas State University - Extension Service

Hard Red Winter (HRW) production, pegged by USDA at 634 million bushels, was down about 6 percent from the June estimate and 12 million bushels (1.9 percent) smaller than the trade's average forecast. The last time the HRW crop was this small was 1964 (when the crop was 635 million bushels).

The USDA's first estimate of "other" spring wheat production was 486 million bushels, 26 million bushels less than last year's crop and 9 million bushels shy of the average of the trade's pre-release estimates. Durum production was pegged at 84 million bushels, about 1 percent above last year's crop and very close to the trade's average estimate. Total U.S. wheat production is therefore 1,749 million bushels. That's the smallest all wheat crop since 1973. It's also 74 million bushels less than the USDA's June projection and 209 million bushels smaller than last year's crop.

Wheat export activity is the lowest on record for this date. As of July 04, only 189 million bushels of wheat had been committed for export (including an estimated 11 million bushels of "food aid" donations which has either been shipped or has been contracted for by the CCC but not yet shipped). On average, 26 percent of annual wheat grain exports are booked by this date.

Despite the low level of export commitments, exports are projected at 900 million bushels, down 60 million bushels from the 2001/02 export estimate. Approximately 865 million bushels of that export projection would be wheat as grain.

EU wheat production is projected to be 108.6 million metric tons. That's a record crop for the EU and up 42 million bushels from last month's estimate and up 620 million bushels from last year's crop. In fact, in a surprise move, the EU approved the export of nearly 20 million bushels at an average subsidy of $.16/bushel.

The estimate of wheat feeding was reduced by 25 million bushels. Some decrease in wheat feeding had been expected due to the high premium that wheat has over feed grains. The USDA lowered its estimate of ending stocks by 35 million bushels and the price forecast was raised by $.10. The midpoint of the range of the USDA's forecast for wheat now stands at $3.05, $.27 higher than last year's price.

The nearby KCBT wheat futures contract (September 2002) recently traded up to the $3.50 level. That is the highest that the nearby KCBT contract has been since March 1998. The next "upside target" for the contract is $3.90.

If KCBT July 2003 wheat futures exceed $3.50, those producers who are comfortable with forward pricing may want to consider pricing an initial portion of their expected (or insurable) 2003 production. These producers may want to consider futures hedges or hedge-to-arrive contracts unless their local elevator is bidding "average" or better basis for delivery at harvest in 2003 (something that is not likely this far in advance).

Dave Ranek & Quentin Wearne, Agricultural Statisticians
Eldon J. Thiessen, State Statistician
Eddie Wells, Deputy State Statistician

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