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CROPS

KANSAS AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS SERVICE
Kansas Department of Agriculture
PO Box 3534
Topeka, KS 66601-3534
Phone: 785-233-2230

Released: June 12, 2002
Volume 02, No. 6

Text Box

INCLUDED
IN THIS
ISSUE

WHEAT
PRODUCTION


WHEAT PRODUCTION DOWN FROM MAY FORECAST

The 2002 Kansas wheat crop is forecast at 280.0 million bushels as of June 1 (see table 1). The current estimate is down 5 percent from the May 1 estimate and down 15 percent from the 2001 crop. The current crop will be harvested from 8.0 million acres, down 200,000 acres from a year ago. This will be the lowest acreage harvested since 1957. Yield per harvested acre is expected to average 35.0 bushels, down 2.0 bushels from the May forecast and 5.0 bushels below the 2001 final yield. As of June 2, wheat condition was rated 1 percent excellent, 22 percent good, 32 percent fair, 24 percent poor, and 21 percent very poor.

Wheat heading was virtually complete, and 41 percent of the acreage had begun to turn color. This is ahead of the 31 percent in 2001 but behind the five-year average of 45 percent. Temperatures were moderate during May and the State received wide-spread scattered showers throughout the month with the heaviest amounts in the east and central districts. Topsoil moisture was rated 19 percent very short, 18 percent short, 56 percent adequate, and 7 percent surplus. Last year, topsoil moisture was 4 percent short, 82 percent adequate, and 14 percent surplus.

Table 1-- KANSAS WHEAT PRODUCTION, JUNE 1, 2002
District Acres Planted Acres Harvested Yield Per Acre Production
2001 2002 2001 2002 % of
Prev. Yr 		2001 2002 2001 2002 % of
Prev. Yr
WINTER WHEAT - - - - - - - - 1,000 Acres - - - - - - - Percent Bushels 1,000 Bushels Percent
Northwest 1,100 990 980 935 95 40 31 39,270 29,000 74
West Central 1,210 970 795 715 90 35 30 27,615 21,500 78
Southwest 1,590 1,400 1,210 835 69 41 29 49,410 24,200 49
North Central 1,350 1,220 1,155 1,135 98 40 39 45,775 44,100 96
Central 1,510 1,540 1,345 1,460 109 40 36 54,455 51,900 95
South Central 2,140 2,290 1,895 1,980 104 39 35 73,935 68,700 93
Northeast 190 240 165 230 139 45 43 7,405 9,900 134
East Central 230 270 215 250 116 48 39 10,315 9,800 95
Southeast 480 480 440 460 105 45 45 19,820 20,900 105
    State 9,800 9,400 8,200 8,000 98 40 35 328,000 280,000 85

U.S. WINTER WHEAT PRODUCTION DOWN 5 PERCENT

Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.24 billion bushels, down 5 percent from the May 1 forecast and 9 percent below 2001 (see table 2) to the lowest level since 1978. Based on June 1 conditions, the U.S. yield is forecast at 41.0 bushels per acre, down 2.1 bushels from the last forecast. Grain area totals 30.2 million acres, unchanged from May 1. Hard Red production is down 6 percent from a month ago to 672 million bushels. Soft Red is down 3 percent from last month, and now totals 360 million bushels. White production totals 206 million bushels, down 2 percent from last month.

Forecasted head counts from the Objective Yield surveys in the six Hard Red Winter states (Colorado, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas) are above last year's final counts. Indicated average head weights are below last year's level except in Montana.

Although some precipitation was received across much of the plains during May, it was not enough to relieve the drought conditions plaguing the region.

WHEAT QUALITY
Pre-Harvest Protein Prediction: Tim Herrman, Department of Grain Science and Industry

Using 178 samples collected by Kansas Agricultural Statistics Service, the predicted State average protein content in wheat is 12.0 percent for the 2002 crop year.

This is the second of two pre-harvest protein predictions; the first was performed in May prior to heading. This second prediction was performed using plants that have headed. Variables in the model include plant physiology, field location, variety, and weather data.


Table 2-- WINTER WHEAT, KANSAS AND SELECTED STATES, JUNE 1, 2002
State Acreage Yield Per Acre Production
Harvested
2001 		For Harvest
2002 		% of
Prev. Yr. 		2001 2002 2001 2002 % of
Prev. Yr.
1,000 Acres Percent Bushels 1,000 Bushels Percent
KANSAS 8,200 8,000 98 40.0 35.0 328,000 280,000 85
Oklahoma 3,700 3,600 97 33.0 31.0 122,100 111,600 91
Washington 1,750 1,700 97 61.0 65.0 106,750 110,500 104
Texas 3,200 2,500 78 34.0 32.0 108,800 80,000 74
Ohio 900 825 92 67.0 65.0 60,300 53,625 89
Idaho 710 690 97 73.0 75.0 51,830 51,750 100
Nebraska 1,600 1,600 100 37.0 29.0 59,200 46,400 78
Arkansas 970 800 82 52.0 53.0 50,440 42,400 84
Colorado 2,000 1,800 90 33.0 23.0 66,000 41,400 63
Missouri 760 760 100 54.0 51.0 41,040 38,760 94
United States 31,295 30,174 96 43.5 41.0 1,361,479 1,237,671 91
1/ Selected states based on top 10 states according to production of winter wheat.

Dave Ranek & Quentin Wearne, Agricultural Statisticians
Eldon J. Thiessen, State Statistician
Eddie Wells, Deputy State Statistician

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