Released: September 12, 2002
Volume 02, No. 9

Soybean production is forecast at 59.8 million bushels, down 4 percent from August 1 and 32 percent smaller than last year's crop. Acreage for harvest is expected to total 2.6 million acres, down 100,000 acres from August 1 and down 5 percent from last year. Yields are expected to average 23 bushels per acre, unchanged from August 1 but 9 bushels below 2001. Thirteen percent of the acreage was dropping leaves as of September 1, compared to 18 percent last year. Condition was rated 28 percent good to excellent, 33 percent fair, and 39 percent poor to very poor.

Table 1-- KANSAS CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1, 2002
Crop & Unit	Planted 1/		Harvested		Yield per Acre 2/		Production
	2001	2002	2001	2002	2001	2002	2001	2002
	1,000 Acres				Per Unit		(000's)
Winter Wheat, bu. 3/	9,800	9,500	8,200	8,000	40	33	328,000	264,000
Corn Grain, bu.	3,450	3,150	3,050	2,600	127	105	387,350	273,000
Sorghum Grain, bu.	4,000	3,900	3,750	3,100	62	48	232,500	148,800
Soybeans, bu.	2,850	2,800	2,730	2,600	32	23	87,360	59,800
Dry Beans, cwt. 3/ 4/	15 .0	18 .0	14 .0	17 .0	1,850	1,600	259 .0	272 .0
Cotton, 480 lb. bales 3/ 4/	40 .5	60 .0	35 .5	55 .0	407	611	30 .1	70 .0
All Hay, tons 3/	-	-	3,300	3,050	2 .42	2 .06	7,980	6,270
Alfalfa Hay, tons 3/	-	-	900	1,000	4 .60	3 .40	4,140	3,400
Other Hay, tons 3/	-	-	2,400	2,050	1 .60	1 .40	3,840	2,870

1/ Planted for all purposes. 2/ Production divided by harvested acres rounded to whole bushels.
3/ Estimate carried forward from earlier forecast. 4/ Yield in pounds.

Table 2-- KANSAS CROP PRODUCTION FORECAST, SEPTEMBER 1, 2002, BY DISTRICTS
Crop And District	Acres Planted, All Purposes		Acres Harvested for Grain			Yield per Acre		Production
	2001	2002	2001	2002	% Prev. Year	2001	2002	2001	2002	% Prev. Year
	------------ 1,000 Acres ------------					Bushels		1,000 Bushels
CORN
Northwest	588	460	538	260	48	118	88	63,680	23,000	36
West Central	305	240	256	135	53	104	93	26,720	12,500	47
Southwest	846	740	777	680	88	164	159	127,500	108,000	85
North Central	219	230	190	160	84	107	81	20,420	13,000	64
Central	158	160	120	130	108	103	104	12,315	13,500	110
South Central	424	380	359	350	97	131	127	47,075	44,500	95
Northeast	478	490	424	460	108	123	59	52,185	27,000	52
East Central	261	260	229	245	107	98	67	22,465	16,500	73
Southeast	171	190	157	180	115	95	83	14,990	15,000	100
State	3,450	3,150	3,050	2,600	85	127	105	387,350	273,000	71
SORGHUM GRAIN
Northwest	224	210	207	130	63	70	29	14,572	3,750	26
West Central	618	540	570	310	54	66	25	37,693	7,850	21
Southwest	796	735	757	445	59	54	40	41,173	17,800	43
North Central	599	625	572	530	93	78	43	44,406	22,750	51
Central	543	575	514	545	106	60	45	30,941	24,750	80
South Central	645	685	574	645	112	41	55	23,350	35,650	153
Northeast	153	125	147	115	78	89	66	13,037	7,600	58
East Central	138	145	132	125	95	72	71	9,535	8,850	93
Southeast	284	260	277	255	92	64	78	17,793	19,800	111
State	4,000	3,900	3,750	3,100	83	62	48	232,500	148,800	64
SOYBEANS
Northwest	60	75	58	55	95	40	31	2,325	1,700	73
West Central	24	32	20	20	100	35	25	705	500	71
Southwest	94	105	89	88	99	46	40	4,066	3,500	86
North Central	299	326	292	280	96	33	20	9,648	5,600	58
Central	207	216	197	202	103	30	21	5,868	4,300	73
South Central	273	240	235	225	96	36	36	8,457	8,100	96
Northeast	613	628	600	595	99	39	21	23,140	12,400	54
East Central	633	598	620	575	93	31	19	19,038	10,800	57
Southeast	647	580	619	560	90	32	23	14,113	12,900	91
State	2,850	2,800	2,730	2,600	95	32	23	87,360	59,800	68

Production of sorghum grain is forecast at 384 million bushels, up 1 percent from August but down 25 percent from 2001. Area harvested and to be harvested for grain, at 7.53 million acres, is slightly below last month and down 12 percent from 2001. The forecast U.S. yield, at 51.0 bushels per acre, is up 0.7 bushel from August but down 8.9 bushels from 2001.

Soybean production is forecast at 2.66 billion bushels, up 1 percent from August 1 but 8 percent below 2001. Based on September 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 37.0 bushels per acre, up 0.5 bushel from last month. If realized, this would be the lowest production since 1999. Acreage for harvest is forecast at 71.8 million

acres, down slightly from August 1 and 2 percent below 2001.

All wheat production is placed at 1.686 billion bushels, unchanged from the August forecast but 14 percent below 2001. The U.S. yield is forecast at 35.4 bushels per acre. This is unchanged from last month.

Table 3-- UNITED STATES CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1, 2002
Crop & Unit	Planted 1/		Harvested		Yield per Acre		Production
	2001	2002	2001	2002	2001	2002	2001	2002
	1,000 Acres				Per Unit		(000's)
All Wheat, bu. 2/	59,617	60,085	48,653	47,628	40.2	35.4	1,957,643	1,686,306
Corn Grain, bu.	75,752	78,847	68,808	70,541	138.2	125.4	9,506,840	8,848,529
Sorghum Grain, bu.	10,252	9,290	8,584	7,528	59.9	51.0	514,524	384,254
Soybeans, bu.	74,105	73,043	73,000	71,799	39.6	37.0	2,890,572	2,655,819
All Hay, tons 2/	-	-	63,511	64,709	2.47	2.36	156,703	152,616
Alfalfa Hay, tons 2/	-	-	23,812	24,134	3.37	3.09	80,266	74,640
Other Hay, tons 2/	-	-	39,699	40,575	1.93	1.92	76,437	77,976

1/ Planted for all purposes. 2/ Estimate carried forward from earlier forecast.

Kansas was ranked in first place for Hides & Skins and Feeds & Fodders. These preliminary export numbers show Kansas slightly behind North Dakota for Wheat and Products, coming in $1.4 million behind North Dakota. In addition, Kansas was ranked second in the Nation for Live Animals & Meat and Animal Fats. Other top ten rankings for Kansas were Sunflower Seed & Oil (third place with $15.9 million) and Feed Grains & Products (fifth place with $465.6 million).

Live Animals comprised 28 percent of the total Kansas exports and 14 percent of all U.S. Live Animal exports. Wheat & Products accounted for 21 percent of the State total and 18 percent of the National All Wheat exports. Feed Grains & Products tallied 16 and 7 percent of the State and National exports, respectively.

A table showing top ten states by commodity can be found at the Kansas Agricultural Statistics Service website (www.nass.usda.gov/ks/).

Table 4-- KANSAS AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS
Commodity	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001
	Million Dollars
Wheat & Flour	500 .9	694 .4	799 .2	718 .3	618 .5
Total Feed Grains	579 .4	469 .0	516 .7	506 .0	465 .6
Live Animals & Meat (Excluding Poultry)	625 .0	648 .7	700 .3	890 .6	822 .2
Hides & Skins	291 .1	239 .7	203 .0	278 .6	390 .0
Soybeans & Products	287 .7	291 .7	178 .4	203 .4	123 .6
Feeds & Fodders	271 .3	269 .3	283 .3	316 .1	361 .9
Animal Fats	90 .9	119 .0	104 .7	80 .4	62 .8
Seeds	30 .8	22 .5	22 .3	24 .2	19 .7
Sunflowers & Oils	23 .9	20 .5	16 .6	22 .8	15 .9
Dairy Products	3 .8	3 .4	2 .5	0 .7	0 .0
Other	6 .6	5 .9	4 .1	9 .6	12 .3
Total	2,711 .5	2,784 .2	2,831 .3	3,050 .5	2,892 .4

MARKET IMPLICATIONS
by Billl Tierney, Kansas State University - Extension Service

Today, USDA released the second official estimate of 2002 corn and soybean production. U.S. corn production was pegged at 8,849 million bushels, 37 million bushels below the August estimate. The September estimate was just 8 million bushels above the average of industry analysts' pre-release estimates.

The September Crop Report is based on crop conditions as they prevailed around September 1. Although corn crop conditions have changed little over the last few weeks, yield models (based on corn's weekly crop condition and the September Crop Report's yield estimate) suggest that the October estimate could be 1-2 bushels lower than the current USDA estimate. The September Crop Report's yield estimate was 125.4 bushels, up two-tenths of a bushel from the August estimate. However, harvested acres declined 460,000 acres (or about six-tenths of a percent from last month's estimate).

The USDA also released revised projections for 2002/03 corn supply-demand. The most significant changes were: (1) ending stocks were reduced 38 million bushels, however, no changes were made in the projections for corn exports usage; and (2) as a consequence of the changes in the stocks figure, the midpoint of the USDA's projected price range was raised $.05 and now stands at $2.55 -- $.58 more than last year's price of $1.97.

Given the seasonal tendency for feed grain prices to decline into harvest, and allowing for the possible increase in the size of the corn crop, it's likely that prices will decline. Based on an examination of the December futures contract, the first downside objective would be a "gap" at the $2.61-2.66 level. If prices penetrate $2.60, the next objective would be another "gap" at the $2.46-$2.53.

One negative factor in the outlook for feed grain prices is the slow pace of corn export sales. As of the beginning of September, export sales of "new crop" corn were estimated to be 231 million bushels. That's 75 million bushels less than last year and it is only 12 percent of projected annual exports. On average, as of the beginning of September, 24 percent of total annual exports are already "on the books".

The U.S. soybean crop was 2,656 million bushels, 1.1 percent more than the August estimate but 17 million bushels below the average of industry expectations. This year's crop is 8.1 percent less than last year's record crop.

Over the last 22 years, soybean futures prices were lower 59% of the time one week following the September report. Based on the closing price from September 11 of $5.89 (a life of contract high), this suggests that November soybean futures could be $5.70 on September 19.

Yield models (based on soybean's weekly crop condition and September Crop report's yield estimate) indicate that the Nation's soybean yield has not changed much since the crop survey was conducted. The September Crop Report's yield estimate was 37.0 bushels, up half-a-bushel from the August estimate. However, harvested acres declined 230,000 acres (or about three- tenths of a percent from last month's estimate).

The USDA also released revised projections for 2002/03 soybean supply-demand: (1) total usage was increased 22 million bushels. However, projected ending stocks were raised by 5 million bushels from the August estimate. The increase in ending stocks, while widely expected, puts stocks at 5.9 percent of usage, a bit less than last year's 6.6 percent and well below the ten-year average of 10.2 percent; and (2) the midpoint of the USDA's projected price range was unchanged at $5.50, up $1.15 from last year's $4.35.

The USDA is projecting soybean exports for this year to be 850 million bushels (115 million bushels less than last year's record exports). When soymeal exports are combined with whole soybean exports, the combined figure accounts for 42 percent of total soybean disappearance (versus last year's 47 percent).

As of the beginning of September, soybean export sales totaled 208 million bushels, 10 million bushels less than a year ago but "on schedule" to meet the USDA's latest projection for annual exports. This year's sales have accounted for 24 percent of the projected annual exports. On average, sales as of this date account for 23 percent of annual exports.

The soybean price seasonal for "short crop years" suggests that prices will weaken as harvest progresses. Based on an examination of the November futures contract, it is expected that futures will decline and attempt to "fill a gap" at the $5.29- $5.30 level. If prices penetrate $5.28, the contract could trade down to $5.00.

Dave Ranek & Quentin Wearne, Agricultural Statisticians
Eldon J. Thiessen, State Statistician
Eddie Wells, Deputy State Statistician

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