Soybeans. The 2004 soybean crop is forecast at 3.15 billion bushels, up 1% from October and up 28% from last year. The yield forecast, at 42.6 bushels per acre, increased 0.6 bushel from last month and is 8.7 bushels above 2003. If realized, both

production and yield would be the largest ever recorded. WAOB projected ending stocks are up 55 million bushels from last month, to 460 million bushels, the highest level since 1985/86. Soybean exports are forecast at 1.01 billion bushels, down 15 million bushels from last month mainly reflecting lower import demand in China. Soybean crush, at 1.65 billion bushels, is unchanged from last month. A market year average price is projected between $4.55 and $5.35 per bushel, down 15 cents from last month on both ends of the range, and below the 2003 average price of $7.34.

Cotton. All U.S. cotton production is forecast at 22.5 million 480-pound bales, up 5% from last month and up 23% from last year's production. Yield is expected to average a record high 818 pounds per harvested acre, up 36 pounds from last month and 88 pounds above the previous year. According to WAOB, exports are raised 200,000 bales this month, while domestic mill use is unchanged. World projections of production are up 1.9%. Global consumption is raised about 1.5 million bales, due mainly to increases for China, India, and Turkey. World ending stocks are increased to 2.6 million bales from last month, including 1.3 million bales in China.

Rice. U.S. rice production is forecast at a record high 228 million cwt, up 1% from October and up 14% from 2003. The average yield is forecast at a record high 6,828 pounds per acre, up 65 pounds from last month and 183 pounds above last year. Ending stocks for 2004/05 are projected by the WAOB at 41.8 million cwt, up 1.1 million cwt from last month. Exports are projected at 105 million cwt, 1 million cwt above last month, and 1.3 million cwt above 2003/04. A market year average price is expected between $7.00 and $7.50 per cwt compared with $7.49 per cwt for the 2003 crop.

Other Crops. Grain Sorghum production is forecast at 472 million bushels, up 2% from October and up 15% from 2003. The sorghum yield forecast is 71.9 bushels per acre, up 1.5 bushels from last month and up 19.2 bushel from last year. The peanut crop is forecast at 4.20 billion pounds, up 2% from last month and 1% above last year's crop. Yields are expected to average 3,027 pounds, 55 pounds above the October forecast but down 132 pounds from 2003.

Cattle. Mid-November prices for choice steers (Nebraska direct, 1100-1300 pounds) averaged $82 per cwt, down $1 from mid- October. Feeder steer prices (Oklahoma City, medium-large frame, 750-800 pounds) were roughly $112 per cwt, down $3 from a month earlier.

Hogs. Through the first two weeks of November, hog slaughter was running about 4.4% below a year ago. Cash prices at mid- November (Iowa-Southern Minnesota direct, 51-52% lean) averaged $58 per cwt, up $8 from the mid-October price. Fourth quarter prices are expected to average $51 per cwt.

Other. October milk production was up 1.3% from the previous year. Production per cow increased 1.0%, while the number of cows increased 0.3% from a year earlier. The cheddar cheese price (U.S. 40 pound blocks, wholesale) was down the first two weeks of November. Total cheese production reported for the month of September 2004 was 1.3% above the previous year. Butter production during this same time period was 25.8% above last year. Production of nonfat dry milk for human food was down 2.3% from September 2003. US table egg production during October 2004 totaled 6.56 billion, up 3% from October 2003. Wholesale market egg prices for the fourth quarter of 2004 (Grade A large, New York) are expected to average 64-66 cents per dozen, compared with 110.7 cents a year ago. First quarter 2005 egg prices are expected to average 63-67 cents per dozen, compared with 114.9 cents a year earlier. Broiler-Type chicks hatched during October 2004 totaled 758 million, up 3% from last year. Weekly Broiler-Type Placements in 19 selected states for the week ending November 13, 2004, were 161 million, up 4% from a year ago. Cumulative placements for the 19

selected states for the period December 28, 2003 - November 13, 2004 totaled 7.88 billion, up 3% from the 7.68 billion chicks placed for the same period a year ago. The wholesale 12-city average price for whole broilers for the fourth quarter of 2004 is expected to be 69-71 cents, compared with 64.6 cents from the fourth quarter of last year. First quarter 2005 broiler prices are expected to average 69-73 cents per pound, compared with the 73.2 cents for a year earlier. Turkey Poult Placements in October 2004, at 20.8 million, were down 9% from last October. Cumulative placements for the 2005 marketing year are 42.1 million poults, down 6% from a year ago. Prices (8-16 lb. hens, Eastern Region) for the fourth quarter of 2004 are expected to be 75-77 cents compared with 67.4 cents for the fourth quarter last year. Turkey prices for the first quarter of 2005 are expected to average 61- 65 cents per pound, compared with the 62.1 cents average for the first quarter of 2004. Supplies in refrigerated warehouses at the end of October 2004 compared with a year earlier were: total chicken, up 33%; turkey, down 16%; pork, down slighty; bellies, down 24%; beef, up 22%; frozen orange juice, up 20%; butter, down 38% and American cheese, up 7%.

Trade. November U.S. trade projections for rice, cotton, beef, broilers, and turkeys improved while 2004/2005 export prospects for corn and soybeans declined, compared with last month. Wheat and pork were unchanged from October. November projections for the volume of exports for the 2004/2005 marketing year compared to 2003/2004 are: wheat down 16%; corn up 8%; rice unchanged; soybeans up 14%; soybean meal up 24%; soybean oil up 16%; and cotton down 9%. November projections for the volume of meat exports in calendar 2005 compared to 2004 are: beef up 40%; pork up 2%; broilers up 10%; and turkeys up 13%. The U.S. trade deficit for goods and services decreased to $51.6 billion in September, from a revised $53.5 billion in August. The U.S. agricultural trade surplus was $450 million in September, compared with a deficit of $150 million in August.

Prices. The rate of inflation, as monitored by the CPI for all urban consumers, increased 0.5% in October and has increased 3.2% over the last 12 months. The PPI increased 1.7% in October and has increased 4.4% over the last 12 months. The October prime rate, averaging 4.75%, was up from 4.58% in September. Compared to a year earlier, feed prices in October were down 5%; feeder livestock and poultry were up 12%; fertilizer up 12%; ag chemicals down 2%; farm machinery up 7%, seeds up 1% and fuels up 34%.

World Weather and Crop Developments (November 7-14). In the United States, Warm, dry weather favored fieldwork across the northern Great Plains and northern Corn Belt. Meanwhile, a storm system gradually moved across the southern half of the Nation throughout the week, causing moderate precipitation and limiting fieldwork from California to the southern and middle Atlantic Coast States. Temperatures were below normal in the eastern Corn Belt, along the Atlantic Coast, in southern California, and in Texas, while above-normal temperatures prevailed across the rest of the Nation. Much cooler weather prompted cold hardening in winter crops in western Europe, while widespread rain boosted topsoil moisture for crop establishment in southeastern Europe. Winter grains continued to ease into dormancy in northern Russia, while above-normal temperatures stimulated further growth in Ukraine and southern Russia. Persistent dryness continued to delay rain fed winter grain planting across central Turkey, while widespread rain boosted planting prospects in western Iran. Scattered showers hampered fieldwork in central India, but summer crop harvesting and winter crop planting advanced elsewhere. Heavy showers overspread Algeria and Tunisia, spurring planting of winter grains. In South Africa showers returned to northern and eastern sections of the corn belt, but unfavorable warmth and dryness persisted in other major summer crop areas. Widespread rain continued in eastern Australia, slowing winter grain maturation and delaying harvesting, but further improving moisture supplies for dryland and irrigated summer crops. Mostly dry weather favored seasonal fieldwork on the North China Plain. Across most of Mexico, seasonably dry weather favored summer crop maturation and early harvesting. Locally heavy showers continued in major soybean, coffee, and winter wheat areas of Brazil. Rain soaked northern agricultural areas, but dry weather returned to most of central Argentina.

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