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Weekly Ag Update

Issue 55-05

January 24, 2005

Included in this Issue

Weather Summary
Milk Production
Cattle on Feed
Monthly Newsletter


WEATHER SUMMARY

It was a dry week in New Mexico with temperatures well above normal. The statewide average was nearly 9 degrees above normal. Afternoon temperatures reached the 50's at mountainous locations and the 60's and lower 70's at lower elevations. Animas Deming and Alamogordo were the only spots to measure precipitation, and Animas (.13") was the only place that received
as much as a tenth of an inch.

NEW MEXICO WEATHER CONDITIONS - JANUARY 17 - 23, 2005
Temperature
Precipitation
Station
Mean
Maximum Minimum 01/17
01/23 		01/01
01/23
Normal
Jan
01/01
01/23 		Normal
Jan-Jan
Farmington 39.6 56 24 0.00 0.73 0.59 0.73 0 .59
Gallup 39.9 61 18 0.00 1.20 0.80 1.20 0 .80
Capulin 39.9 66 18 0.00 0.89 0.40 0.89 0 .40
Chama 33.9 58 8 0.00 1.52 1.77 1.52 1 .77
Johnson Ranch 37.2 59 17 0.00 0.15 0.67 0.15 0 .67
Las Vegas 42.7 66 20 0.00 0.76 0.60 0.76 0 .60
Los Alamos 39.9 58 26 0.00 1.06 0.86 1.06 0 .86
Raton 39.6 66 17 0.00 0.64 0.47 0.64 0 .47
Red River 29.7 53 7 0.00 1.41 1.07 1.41 1 .07
Santa Fe 41.4 62 22 0.00 0.36 0.63 0.36 0 .63
Clayton 45.0 74 16 0.00 0.41 0.24 0.41 0 .24
Clovis 43.6 71 19 0.00 0.63 0.39 0.63 0 .39
Roy 42.9 67 20 0.00 0.94 0.34 0.94 0 .34
Tucumcari 43.7 73 18 0.00 0.68 0.28 0.68 0 .28
Grants 39.5 63 17 0.00 0.70 0.49 0.70 0 .49
Quemado 39.0 62 18 0.00 0.24 0.83 0.24 0 .83
Silver City 45.0 62 27 0.00 2.21 1.16 2.21 1 .16
Albuquerque 44.4 60 27 0.00 0.76 0.44 0.76 0 .44
Carrizozo 43.0 65 21 0.00 0.72 0.60 0.72 0 .60
Socorro 43.1 61 21 0.00 0.79 0.39 0.79 0 .39
Gran Quivera 42.9 63 23 0.00 0.82 0.70 0.82 0 .70
Moriarty 38.6 62 11 0.00 0.62 0.43 0.62 0 .43
Ruidoso 41.4 64 20 0.00 1.40 1.12 1.40 1 .12
Carlsbad 44.5 70 22 0.00 0.15 0.35 0.15 0 .35
Roswell 41.1 69 18 0.00 0.29 0.43 0.29 0 .43
Tatum 41.6 72 18 0.00 0.62 0.39 0.62 0 .39
Alamogordo 49.7 64 35 0.05 1.08 0.67 1.08 0 .67
Animas 48.9 65 31 0.13 1.40 0.68 1.40 0 .68
Deming 48.2 65 27 0.04 0.92 0.56 0.92 0 .56
Las Cruces 48.6 65 28 0.00 0.59 0.46 0.59 0 .46
T or C 47.9 65 29 0.00 0.77 0.46 0.77 0 .46
(T) Trace (-) No Report (*) Correction
All reports based on preliminary data. Precipitation data corrected monthly from official observation forms.

                                        

MILK PRODUCTION

NEW MEXICO: Milk Production in New Mexico during December totaled 530 million pounds, up from the previous month's total of 520 million pounds. Production per cow in the state increased to an average of 1,650 pounds for December. Number of milk cows on farms was down to 321,000 head.

UNITED STATES: Milk production in the 20 major States during December totaled 12.4 billion pounds, up 1.0 percent from December 2003. November revised production, at 11.9 billion pounds, was up 1.2 percent from November 2003. The November revision represented an increase of 5 million pounds from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,602 pounds for December, 6 pounds above December 2003. The number of milk cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.76 million head, 47,000 head more than December 2003, but 4,000 head less than
November 2004.


Milk Cows and Production: November 2004 1/ and December 2003-2004
Milk Cows2/ Milk per Cow3/ Milk Production3/
State 12/03 11/04 12/04 12/03 11/04 12/04 12/03 11/04 12/04
-------------1,000 Head-------------- ---------------Pounds------------- ------------Million Pounds----------
AZ 155 168 166 1,895 1,760 1,890 294 296 314
CA 1,697 1,741 1,741 1,740 1,700 1,775 2,953 2,960 3,090
FL 140 137 138 1,355 1,250 1,375 190 171 190
ID 412 434 435 1,800 1,720 1,780 742 746 774
IL 109 106 106 1,585 1,450 1,540 173 154 163
IN 145 154 155 1,700 1,560 1,620 247 240 251
IA 196 190 188 1,580 1,520 1,590 310 289 299
KY 112 109 110 1,070 1,030 1,075 120 112 118
MI 300 306 307 1,765 1,660 1,725 530 508 530
MN 465 460 460 1,485 1,390 1,475 691 639 679
MO 124 120 119 1,250 1,215 1,270 155 146 151
NM 324 324 321 1,730 1,605 1,650 561 520 530
NY 657 646 646 1,480 1,410 1,485 972 911 959
OH 258 266 266 1,440 1,390 1,460 372 370 388
PA 562 563 565 1,480 1,420 1,490 832 799 842
TX 317 320 319 1,575 1,455 1,555 499 466 496
VT 146 144 143 1,505 1,415 1,515 220 204 217
VA 106 104 104 1,335 1,360 1,420 142 141 148
WA 241 235 235 1,900 1,825 1,920 458 429 451
WI 1,247 1,237 1,236 1,485 1,415 1,490 1,852 1,750 1,842
20 STS 7,713 7,764 7,760 1,596 1,526 1,602 12,313 11,851 12,432
1/ Revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves.

CATTLE ON FEED

NEW MEXICO: Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in New Mexico feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 126,000 on January 1st, 2005, down 3,000 head from the previous month. Placements in feedlots during December totaled 14,000 head, unchanged from November. Marketings were down 1,000 to 15,000 head. Other disappearance totaled 2,000 head.

UNITED STATES : Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.3 million head on January 1, 2005. The inventory was slightly above January 1, 2004 and 6 percent above January 1, 2003. Placements in feedlots during December totaled 1.83 million, 5 percent above 2003 and 14 percent above 2002. Net placements were 1.74 million. Marketings of fed cattle during December totaled 1.78 million, 2 percent above 2003 but 1 percent below 2002. Other disappearance totaled 92,000 during December, 2 percent above 2003 but 7 percent below 2002.

Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots 1/
Number on Feed Placed Marketed Other Disappearance2/
1/1/04 12/1/04 1/1/05 ---------------------------------------------DURING----------------------------------------------------
12/03 11/04 12/04 12/03 11/04 12/04 12/03 11/04 12/04
----------------------------------------------------------------------1,000 Head----------------------------------------------------------------------
AZ 293 329 331 32 35 33 22 23 30 1 4 1
CA 510 530 535 70 66 72 55 53 62 5 8 5
CO 1,040 1,100 1,080 180 175 135 190 155 145 10 10 10
ID 300 305 295 53 50 55 60 48 62 3 2 3
IA 370 435 450 50 90 71 48 82 55 2 3 1
KS 2,430 2,390 2,410 410 390 490 435 370 450 25 30 20
NE 2,280 2,300 2,300 350 410 390 340 310 380 10 10 10
NM 115 129 126 14 14 14 17 16 15 3 3 2
OK 355 355 350 53 43 53 45 44 52 3 4 6
SD 200 186 192 31 51 42 30 33 34 1 1 2
TX 2,830 2,740 2,700 420 320 405 410 430 420 20 30 25
WA 200 185 190 30 37 39 38 31 32 2 1 2
Oth Sts 330 360 350 55 62 35 50 30 40 5 2 5
US 11,253 11,344 11,309 1,748 1,743 1,834 1,740 1,625 1,777 90 108 92
1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death losses, movement from feedlots to pastures, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding.

MONTHLY AG NEWSLETTER
DECEMBER 2004

The following estimates, forecasts, and projections are mainly taken from recent publications
of the National Agricultural Statistics Service, Economic Research Service, and the
World Agricultural Outlook Board of the USDA.

Cotton. All cotton production is forecast at 22.8 million 480-pound bales, up 1 percent from the November 1 forecast and 25 percent above last year's production. Yield is expected to average a record high 828 pounds per harvested acre, surpassing the previous record of 730 pounds set in 2003. The World Agricultural Outlook Board's (WAOB) global projections include sharply higher production and slightly higher consumption. Projected world ending stocks are raised 4% to 46.5 million bales.

Corn. The 2004 corn production is forecast at 11.7 billion bushels, up 16% from last year. The average yield is forecast at 160.2 bushels per acre, up 18.0 bushels from a year ago. WAOB projected 2004/05 U.S. ending stocks are up 25 million bushels from last month as smaller exports are partially offset by larger industrial and feed use. A market year average price between $1.70 and $2.10 per bushel is expected, compared with $2.42 for the 2003 crop.

Wheat. All wheat production totaled 2.16 billion bushels in 2004, down 8% from 2003. The average yield is 43.2 bushels per acre, down 1.0 bushel from last year. WAOB projected 2004/05 U.S. ending stocks are down 15 million bushels from last month as a 25-million-bushel increase in exports is partially offset by a 10-million-bushel drop in food use. Exports are raised based on stronger than expected sales to date, higher global wheat imports, and lower exports from the EU-25. Lower food use is based on the recent mill grind estimates released by the Bureau of the Census. The market year average price is expected to average between $3.20 and $3.50 per bushel compared with $3.40 for the 2003 crop.

Other Crops. Grain Sorghum production is forecast at 472 million bushels, up 15% from 2003. The peanut crop is forecast at 4.20 billion pounds, 1% above last year's crop.

Cattle. Mid-December prices for choice steers (Nebraska direct, 1100-1300 pounds) averaged $84 per cwt, up $2 from mid- November. Feeder steer prices (Oklahoma City, medium-large frame, 750-800 pounds) were roughly $104 per cwt, down $8 from a month earlier.

Hogs. Through the first two weeks of December, hog slaughter was running about 1.4% below a year ago. Cash prices at mid-December (Iowa-Southern Minnesota direct, 51-52% lean) averaged $49 per cwt, down $9 from the mid-November price. Fourth quarter prices are expected to average $55 per cwt.

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