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Weekly Ag Update

Issue 55-06

January 31, 2005

Included in this Issue

Weather Summary
Cattle
Sheep
Goats
Feed Outlook


WEATHER SUMMARY

After a warm, dry beginning, two winter storms moved across New Mexico during the latter half of the week. These storms produced some heavy snowfalls in the mountains, mainly in the north, with rainfall at lower elevations. Animas, Moriarty, Los Alamos, Roy and Raton all measured over an inch of moisture. In spite of the winter storms, temperatures were above normal statewide.

NEW MEXICO WEATHER CONDITIONS - JANUARY 24 - 30, 2005
Temperature
Precipitation
Station
Mea n
Maximu m Minimu m 01/24
01/30 		01/01
01/30
Normal
Jan
01/01
01/30 		Normal
Jan-Jan
Farmington 40.1 58 26 0.32 1.11 0.59 1.11 0 .59
Gallup 36.5 54 19 0.25 1.88 0.80 1.88 0 .80
Capulin 34.2 61 19 0.65 1.54 0.40 1.54 0 .40
Chama 28.7 51 8 0.88 1.94 1.77 1.94 1 .77
Johnson 36 57 21 0.26 0.15 0.67 0.15 0 .67
Las Vegas 36.7 62 22 0.36 0.99 0.60 0.99 0 .60
Los Alamos 34.3 50 18 1.59 2.00 0.86 2.00 0 .86
Raton 35.7 65 21 1.35 2.34 0.47 2.34 0 .47
Red River 28.6 50 9 0.86 1.57 1.07 1.57 1 .07
Santa Fe 35.5 54 22 0.94 1.09 0.63 1.09 0 .63
Clayton 38.9 67 25 0.37 0.71 0.24 0.71 0 .24
Clovis 43.9 71 29 0.53 2.16 0.39 2.16 0 .39
Roy 38.1 63 23 1.22 2.16 0.34 2.16 0 .34
Tucumcari 43.4 73 25 0.7 1.38 0.28 1.38 0 .28
Grants 35.3 56 13 0.23 0.93 0.49 0.93 0 .49
Quemado 38.4 58 19 0.08 0.32 0.83 0.32 0 .83
Silver City -- -- -- -- 2.21 1.16 2.21 1 .16
Albuquerque 41.4 57 29 0.62 1.25 0.44 1.25 0 .44
Carrizozo 42.8 60 22 0.1 0.72 0.60 0.72 0 .60
Socorro 43.5 65 24 0.51 1.31 0.39 1.31 0 .39
Gran Quivera 38.4 55 22 0.45 1.27 0.70 1.27 0 .70
Moriarty 34.8 58 14 1.02 1.64 0.43 1.64 0 .43
Ruidoso 40.1 62 19 0.35 1.75 1.12 1.75 1 .12
Carlsbad 48.9 73 28 0.17 0.32 0.35 0.32 0 .35
Roswell 43.6 72 25 0.42 0.71 0.43 0.71 0 .43
Tatum 43.2 69 22 0.46 1.08 0.39 1.08 0 .39
Alamogordo 47.6 63 33 0.22 1.30 0.67 1.30 0 .67
Animas 47.6 64 28 1.14 2.54 0.68 2.54 0 .68
Deming 45.7 66 25 0.35 1.27 0.56 1.27 0 .56
Las Cruces 47.1 67 30 0.31 0.90 0.46 0.90 0 .46
T or C 46.4 67 29 0.25 1.02 0.46 1.02 0 .46
(T) Trace (-) No Report (*) Correction
All reports based on preliminary data. Precipitation data corrected monthly from official observation forms.

CATTLE INVENTORY

NEW MEXICO : Inventory of all cattle and calves in New Mexico on January 1, 2005 totaled 1.5 million head, down from 1.51 million a year ago. Beef cow inventory was up 3.7 percent to 472,000 head. Milk cows were down to 318,000 head. Beef operations kept 90,000 beef heifers for replacement, and milk operations kept 100,000 dairy heifers for replacement on hand. Steers weighing 500 pounds or more totaled 150,000 head compared to 190,000 head the previous year. Bulls on hand remained at 45,000 head. Calves under 500 pounds totaled 240,000 head. The calf crop was 10,000 head higher than in 2004, at 600,000 head. Total cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market totaled 126,000 head, up from January 1, 2004 by 11,000.            

UNITED STATES: All cattle and calves in the United States as of January 1, 2005,totaled 95.8 million head, 1 percent above the 94.9 million on January 1, 2004.

All cows and heifers that have calved, at 42.1 million, were up 1 percent from the 41.9 million on January 1, 2004.

Beef cows, at 33.06 million, were up 1 percent from January 1,2004.
Milk cows, at 9.01 million, were up slightly from January 1,2004.

Other class estimates on January 1, 2005, and the change from January 1, 2004, are as follows:

All heifers 500 pounds and over, 19.7 million, up 2 percent.
Beef replacement heifers, 5.75 million, up 4 percent.
Milk replacement heifers, 4.13 million, up 3 percent.
Other heifers, 9.79 million, down slightly.
Steers weighing 500 pounds and over, 16.5 million, up 1 percent.
Bulls weighing 500 pounds and over, 2.22 million, up 1 percent.
Calves under 500 pounds, 15.4 million, up 1 percent.
Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter in all feedlots, 13.7 million, down slightly.

The combined total of calves under 500 pounds, and other heifers and steers over 500 pounds outside of feedlots was 27.9 million, up 2 percent.

The 2004 calf crop was estimated at 37.6 million head, down 1 percent from 2003. Calves born during the first half of the year are estimated at 27.4 million, down 1 percent from 2003.

Cattle and Calves: Number by Class and Calf Crop January 1, 2004-2005, New Mexico and U.S.
New Mexico United States
2004 2005 2004 2005
----------------------------------1,000 Head----------------------------- -----------
Cattle and calves 1,510 1,500 94,888 95,848
Cows and Heifers that have calved 780 790 41,851 42,060
Beef Cows 455 472 32,861 33,055
Milk Cows 325 318 8,990 9,005
Heifers 500 lbs. And over
For beef cow replacement 85 90 5,518 5,746
For milk cow replacement 75 100 4,020 4,133
Other 105 85 9,806 9,793
Steers 500 lbs. and over 190 150 16,277 16,511
Bulls 500 lbs. and over 45 45 2,206 2,219
Calves under 500 lbs. 230 240 15,210 15,385
Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter 115 126 13,813 13,749
Calf crop (previous year) 590 600 37,903 37,625


SHEEP INVENTORY

NEW MEXICO: Sheep and lamb inventory for the state on January 1, 2005 continued a downward trend, totaling 145,000 head compared to 160,000 on January 1, 2004, a decline of 9.4 percent. Breeding sheep and lambs dropped by 13,000 head to 120,000. Market sheep and lambs decreased by 2,000 head going from 27,000 to 25,000 head. The 2004 lamb crop at 85,000 head, declined 14 percent from the 2003 lamb crop.

UNITED STATES: All sheep and lamb inventory in the United States on January 1, 2005, totaled 6.14 million head, up slightly from 2004, but 3 percent below two years ago. The inventory has leveled off and is showing a slight increase for the first time since 1990.

Breeding sheep inventory increased to 4.53 million head on January 1, 2005, up 1 percent from 4.50 million head on January 1, 2004. Ewes one year old and older, at 3.57 million head, were 1 percent below last year.

Market sheep and lambs on January 1, 2005, totaled 1.60 million head, down slightly from January 1, 2004. Market lambs comprised 95 percent of the total marketings. Twenty-six percent were lambs under 65 pounds, 13 percent were 65 - 84 pounds, 24 percent were 85 - 105 pounds, 32 percent were over 105 pounds, and 5 percent were market sheep.

The 2004 lamb crop of 4.10 million head, a record low, was down 1 percent from 2003. The 2004 lambing rate was 113 lambs per 100 ewes one year old and older on January 1, 2004, up 3 percent from 2003.

Sheep and Lambs: Number by Class and Lamb Crop January 1, 2004-2005, New Mexico and U.S.
New Mexico United States
2004 2005 2004 2005
----------------------------------1,000 Head----------------------------------------
All Sheep and Lambs 160.0 145.0 6,105.0 6,135.0
Breeding Sheep and Lambs 133.0 120.0 4,499.0 4,533.0
Market Sheep and Lambs 27.0 25.0 1,606.0 1,602.0
Market Lambs under 65 lbs. 6.0 7.0 431.5 413.2
65-84 lbs. 8.0 7.0 255.9 214.7
85-105 lbs. 8.0 5.0 366.8 381.9
Over 105 lbs. 3.0 4.0 486.2 518.1
Market Sheep 2.0 2.0 65.6 74.1
Lamb crop Jan. 1 previous year 1/ 99.0 85.0 4,140.0 4,096.0
1/ Lamb crop is defined as lambs born in the Eastern States and lambs docked or branded in the Western States
                                
                


GOAT INVENTORY


NEW MEXICO: All Goat inventory in the state totaled 21,800 on January 1, 2005. Angora goats held at 10,000 head no, change from January 1, 2004. Milk Goat inventory was estimated at 4,500 head and meat and other goat totaled 7,300 head.

UNITED STATES: All goat inventory in the United States on January 1, 2005, totaled 2.5 million head. Breeding goat inventory totaled 2.1 million head and market goats totaled 400,000 head. On January 1, 2005, meat and all other goats totaled 1.97 million head, milk goats totaled 283,500 head and angora goats totaled 274,000 head. The 2004 kid crop was 1.67 million head for all goats.


Goats: Inventory, Selected States and Total, January 1, 2004-2005
Class New Mexico United States
2004 2005 2004 2005
------------------------------------------1,000 Head-------------------------------- ---------------
Angora 10,000 10,000 -- 274,000
Milk -- 4,500 --- 283,500
Meat and Other -- 7,300 -- 1,965,000
Total -- 21,800 -- 2,522,500

                            

FEED OUTLOOK
ERS, USDA, JANUARY 2005
    
Domestic changes this month are based on the National Agricultural Statistics Service's (NASS) annual crop production report and the NASS stocks report. Total 2004/05 feed grain production was increased due to an increase in the forecasted corn crop. At the same time, total feed grain utilization decreased from 297.1 million tons to 295.5 million tons. This led to an increase in feed grain stocks, but season average prices are little changed.

Feed Grains Exports Lower This Month and Domestic Use Down: Feed grain supplies for 2004/05 are up from December and up 42.1 million metric tons from 2003/04. The record 2004 corn crop was the principle reason for the supply increase, as sorghum was down month-to-month-and barley and oats production were unchanged.

Total use of feed grains was lowered this month, as corn exports were reduced, and sorghum feed and residual use was lowered slightly. Exports for 2004/05 are still up 630,000 tons from 2003/04. Domestic use of the four feed grains was decreased very slightly this month because of reduced feed and residual use for sorghum. The decline in use and rise in supply resulted in ending stocks increasing nearly 3 million tons, to 54.7 million. In 2003/04, ending stocks for the four feed grains were 29 million tons.

Feed and Residual Up From Last Year: On a September-August marketing year basis, feed and residual use for the four major feed grains plus feed wheat was forecast at 168.9 million tons, down from last month, but up from 160 million tons last year. The projected index of grain consuming animal units (GCAU) is 90 million, up from 89.6 million in 2003/04. Feed and residual per GCAU is 1.88 tons.

Pork producers reduced the number of sows farrowing in June-November but with increased pigs per litter, the pig crop was unchanged from a year earlier. Producers reported they expected to keep farrowing unchanged from the previous year in the December 2004 through May 2005 period. As a result, pork production is expected to increase 202 million pounds in 2005 from the 20.523 billion in 2004.

Feed needs for pork are forecast to be stronger than last year. Feed needs for beef may strengthen because of the new minimal risk rule to allow feeder cattle imports from Canada effective March 7, 2005. Poultry and egg production were lowered slightly this month for 2004 but are up in 2005 from the 2004 level. In 2005, milk production is forecast to increase 3.2 billion pounds from 2004's 170.9 billion, keeping feed needs strong.

Corn Use Declined From Last Month: Corn production for 2004/05 was raised 66 million bushels to

11,807 million, record high. This month-to-month increase stems from a 321,000-acre increase in harvested area (now estimated at 73.6 million acres) and a 0.2-bushel-per-acre increase in yield (now estimated at 160.4 bushels per acre and still a record). The increase in harvested area was a shift from silage production to grain. Total planted acres are down 38,000 acres from the last estimate, but still up 2.3 million acres from 2003. Beginning stocks were raised fractionally and total supply is now projected at 12,78 million bushels.

Domestic use of corn was unchanged this month at 8.87 billion bushels. Total corn use was down because of lower expected exports. Even with the decline this month, total corn use is expected to be up 588 million bushels from 2003/04. The projected price range of corn is up 10 cents on the lower end to $1.80 per bushel while the upper end is unchanged at $2.10. The price is raised because prices received by farmers (reported by NASS) have been above cash prices. This suggests that farmers forward contracted a substantial portion of the crop when prices were much higher.     

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