CROP PROGRESS PERCENTAGES WITH COMPARISONS
CROP PROGRESS		This Week	Last Week	Last Year	5-Year Average
CHILE	Planted	76	70	79	74
COTTON	Planted	17	4	9	11
WHEAT (ALL)	Grazed	31	35	N/A	N/A

U.S. cotton exports are being sustained this season by the increased foreign consumption that has exceeded production in each of the past nine seasons. Foreign cotton use in 2004/05 is forecast at a record 99.9 million bales, resulting in considerable foreign imports despite the record crop. China continues to propel the consumption growth, with use there forecast at 37.5 million bales and imports projected at 9 million, both records.

U.S. Cotton Supply Unchanged; Demand Revised Upward: The 2004/05 U.S. cotton crop remains estimated at 23 million bales (upland at 22.3 million and extra-long staple (ELS) at 736,000 bales), compared with about 18.3 million in 2003/04. The USDA will release final production estimates on May 12th. Based on the current production estimate and beginning stocks of 3.5 million bales, this season's U.S. cotton supply totals nearly 26.6 million bales, 12 percent above last season and the largest in nearly four decades.

While supply was unchanged, 2004/05 U.S. cotton demand was increased in March to 19.5 million bales, still about 4 percent below last season but the third highest on record. The U.S. export forecast was raised 200,000 bales to 13.2 million, as recent sales data and the expectation of future foreign import needs_particularly from China_led to the revised forecast. The U.S. share of world trade is estimated at 39 percent, below 2003/04's 42 percent but similar to 2002/03.

U.S. cotton mill use continues to trend lower, accounting for less than one-third of total U.S. cotton demand as competition from imported products continues. However, mill use was unchanged this month at 6.3 million bales. U.S. cotton mill use has remained fairly stable over the past 12 months, averaging more than 6.3 million bales on a seasonally adjusted annual rate for the first half of 2004/05.

Based on this supply and demand outlook, U.S. cotton ending stocks for 2004/05 are forecast at 7.1 million bales, more than double last season's level. As a result, the stocks-to-use ratio will rise considerably in 2004/05 from 17 percent in 2003/04 to over 36 percent this season.

Record Textile Imports in Calendar 2004: Total 2004 textile imports reached a record 17.6 billion (raw-fiber equivalent) pounds, 935 million (6 percent) above 2003. Textile exports also rose in 2004 to 5.0 billion pounds, 218 million (5 percent) higher than in 2003. As a result, the 2004 trade deficit reached 12.6 billion pounds, compared with 11.9 billion in 2003 and 10.5 billion in 2002. Cotton accounted for 56 percent (7.1 billion pounds) of the deficit; manmade fibers contributed 33 percent, while 3 percent came from wool textiles. Silk and linen accounted for the remaining 8 percent.

For December 2004, U.S. textile imports totaled 1.3 billion pounds, 8 percent below November but 5 percent above a year ago. Lower imports of cotton, wool, and manmade fiber products more than offset slight gains in linen and silk textiles compared with a month earlier. Apparel imports, at 844 million pounds, declined sharply in December. Shipments of home furnishing were also lower in December. Cotton textile imports declined 7 percent to 720 million pounds. Lower imports of cotton apparel accounted for most of the December decline.

December textile exports, at 382 million pounds, were 1 percent below a month earlier, but 17 percent above a year ago. Export declines occurred in cotton and linen textiles and for home furnishing and yarn, thread, and fabric end-use categories. Cotton textile exports declined to 165 million pounds, 10 percent below a month earlier and the lowest monthly shipment during 2004.

World Cotton Production Almost 1 Million Bales Higher This Month: World cotton production in 2004/05 is forecast almost 1 million bales higher than in February, at 117.7 million bales. Consumption is forecast 360,000 bales higher, at 106.4 million bales. World trade is forecast 300,000 bales higher_at 33.6 million bales_and ending stocks are forecast 819,000 bales higher_at 47.6 million bales.

The largest production change this month is in Brazil, up 450,000 bales. A survey by Brazil's agriculture ministry indicated higher area than previously expected in both 2003/04 and 2004/05. Assuming normal yields for each producing state, the new area estimate suggests a crop of 6.3 million bales. Mato Grosso accounted for most of the upward revision in 2003/04 area, in turn increasing expected 2004/05 area in Brazil's highest yielding state. USDA's attaché reports that Brazilian farmers purchased their crop inputs early, avoiding the impact of rising oil prices this year, and sustaining prospects for normal yields.

India's 2004/05 production estimate is 400,000 bales higher this month. India's cotton arrivals have fluctuated significantly this

season, but were quite strong in February. Through December, arrivals were 51 percent above year-earlier levels, but were 5 percent lower compared with a year earlier in January. Arrivals surged again in February, rising 56 percent above year-earlier levels. The rest of the year is expected to see arrivals average 20 percent below year-earlier levels; USDA's attaché reports sources in India expect arrivals to end at least one month earlier than last year.

World cotton production in 2004/05 is now forecast 22.6 million bales higher than the year before. China and the United States account for half of this increase, and India accounts for an additional 11 percent.