CROP SUMMARY FOR THE WEEK ENDING NOVEMBER 13, 2005

NEW MEXICO: There were 6.9 days suitable for field work. Topsoil moisture was 16% very short, 52% short and 32% adequate. Wind damage was 4% light. Freeze damage was 24% light and 3% moderate. Crop harvesting is progressing normally. Alfalfa was in fair to excellent condition, with 98% of the 6^th cutting complete, and 60% of the 7^th cutting complete. Cotton was in mostly fair to excellent condition, with 43% harvested. Sorghum was in mostly fair to good condition, with 96% mature and 25% harvested for grain. Wheat was in mostly fair to excellent condition. Peanuts were 95% harvested. Lettuce was 68% harvested. Red chile was in mostly fair to excellent condition, with 60% harvested. Fall onions were in fair to excellent condition. Pecans were in fair to excellent condition. Ranchers continue marketing their calves and preparing for the winter months. Cattle conditions were 6% poor, 34% fair, 41% good, and 19% excellent. Sheep were listed as 8% very poor, 12% poor, 56% fair, 17% good, and 7% excellent. Range and pasture conditions were reported as 6% very poor, 25% poor, 40% fair, 27% good and 2% excellent.

WEATHER SUMMARY

Above normal average temperatures were reported statewide for the week, with record or near record max temperatures on Friday. Cold fronts into the eastern plains resulted in variable temperatures there, with cooler air in place both on Wednesday and again on Sunday. A fall storm moved quickly across the state on Friday. While moisture was limited, thunderstorms and showers developed across the west and north. Red River reported 0.34 inches of precipitation. Data is incomplete for Socorro and Las Vegas.

CROP PRODUCTION

NEW MEXICO: Corn for grain production forecast remains at 8.1 million bushels compared to 10.4 million bushels one year ago. Harvested acreage for 2005 is at 45,000 acres with yields expected to average 180.0 bushels per acre. Upland cotton production forecast is estimated at 92,000 bales, down 19 percent from the previous years' production of 113,000 bales. Harvested acreage is down 20 percent at 51,000 acres, with yields anticipated at 866 pounds per acre. American-Pima production is forecast at 21,000 bales, an 11 percent increase from the previous year's production of 19,000 bales. Harvested acreage totals 11,000 acres with yields anticipated to average 916 pounds per acre. Sorghum for Grain production is forecast at 4.1 million bushels, compared to 4.2 million bushels one year ago. Peanut harvested acreage is up from a year ago at 19,000 acres with yields expected at 3,400 pounds per acre. Potatoes acreage is also up at 5,300 acres and expected yields of 400 hundredweight per acre.

UNITED STATES: Corn for grain area harvested and to be harvested for grain is forecast at 74.3 million acres, unchanged from October but up 1 percent from 2004. Sorghum production is forecast at 388 million bushels, up 3 percent from last month but down 15 percent from last year. Based on November 1 conditions, the sorghum yield forecast is 68.2 bushels per acre, up 2.2 bushels from October but down 1.6 bushels from last year. Peanuts production is forecast at 4.66 billion pounds, down 5 percent from last month but up 9 percent from last year's crop. Area for harvest is expected to total 1.61 million acres, unchanged from October but up 15 percent from last year. All cotton production is forecast at 23.2 million 480-pound bales,

up 2 percent from the October forecast but slightly below last year's record high production. Yield is expected to average 813 pounds per acre, up 16 pounds from last month but down 42 pounds from 2004. Upland cotton harvested area is forecast at 13.4 million acres unchanged from last month but up 5 percent from last year. American-Pima production is forecast at 644,000 bales, down 9 percent from the October forecast and down 14 percent from last year. The U.S. yield is forecast at 1,166 pounds per harvested acre, down 9 percent from last month and down 19 percent from 2004. Fall potatoes production of fall potatoes for 2005 is forecast at 382 million cwt, down 7 percent from last year. Area harvested, at 951,800 acres, is virtually unchanged from the July forecast but 7 percent below last year. The average yield is forecast at a record high 402 cwt per acre, 1 cwt above the previous high set last year.

Livestock Outlook - October 18, 2005

Economic Research Service, USDA

Fall Moisture Conditions Improve; Choice Beef Supplies Tighten: Recent rains have improved crop prospects and pasture conditions in many areas, Crop production estimates for feed grains were higher in October than they were in September. Forecast 2005/06 corn production is up 218 million bushels from the September estimate to 10.857 billion bushels, the second largest crop on record. The projected 2005/06 price range for corn is $1.65 to $2.05 per bushel, down 5 cents on each end from last month, and well below the $2.06 average for 2004/05, or the $2.42 average in 2003/04. Although this year’s harvest is below the record 11.81 billion bushels harvested in 2004/05, it is well above the third largest crop—10.09 billion bushels—harvested in 2003/04, and continues to hold grain prices well below the levels of recent years. The low corn prices and recent higher fed cattle prices favor stronger stocker/feeder cattle prices. However, strong feeder cattle prices continue to result in red ink for the fed cattle sector with break-evens this fall averaging in the lower $90s per cwt. While stocker/feeder cattle prices remain strong, wheat grazing prospects this fall have declined somewhat from earlier expectations as drier conditions developed in the Southern Great Plains, particularly in the Texas Panhandle fall-winter small grain grazing areas.

Prospects for this year’s hay crop are somewhat mixed with the October estimates rising from the August estimates for both alfalfa and other hay. But while the alfalfa prospects rose nearly 3 percent from August and 1 percent from a year earlier, the forecast of production of other hay rose only 1 percent and is expected to be down 7 percent from last year’s record harvest. Despite this decline, this year’s other hay crop would be the third largest on record, behind only the harvests of the past 2 years. The farm price of all hay in September averaged $99 a ton, up from $91.40 a year earlier. Alfalfa hay prices averaged $107 per ton, up $9.50 a ton from a year earlier, while the price of other hay was up only 30 cents a ton from a year earlier. While hay stocks are down from last year, and prices are up, stocks appear to be adequate for supplemental feeding through the winter, particularly with the still cyclically low cattle inventory.

Cow-Calf/Feeders Still Profitable: Cow-calf producers continue to be the best performing sector of the cattle/beef complex. Feeder calf prices remain at levels near or above year-ago levels, with almost every class of stocker/feeder steers and heifers at Oklahoma City selling for well over a dollar a pound. Cow prices, while slipping $2-$3 per cwt from year-ago

levels, are still $52 per hundredweight or better.

Except for some areas across the Northwest, Northern Rockies, Central Plains, and Great Lakes remaining under drought conditions, most of the rest of the cow-calf country has had enough precipitation to be in fair shape or better. Drier conditions have developed in the southern portions of the Southern Plains winter wheat areas and may necessitate some re-seeding when moisture is received.

Cattle Feeding and Wholesale Sectors Squeezed; Supplies of Higher Grading Cattle Remain Very Tight: Cattle on feed on September 1, 2005, were up marginally from a year earlier and about 2 percent above 2003. August placements were 5 percent below August 2004 placements and 16 percent below August 2003 placements. Marketings were 6 percent above last year, but 2 percent below August 2003. Much of the increase from last year reflects an extra slaughter day in August 2005.

The price spread between Choice and Select carcasses continues to widen and indicates a relative shortage of Choice beef. The proportion of cattle grading Choice and higher in September averaged about 53 percent, down from about 56 percent a year earlier. The Choice/Select spread has widened to $12 to $14 per cwt in the first half of October. Although larger numbers of feeder cattle weighing over 700 pounds have been placed on feed every month over a year earlier (except July) since April, it seems unlikely that this is the primary source of the problem. Slaughter weights continue at record or near record levels, and feedlot performance has apparently been fairly good. Steer weights are heavier than a year ago, and well above the low weights of 2003. The fact remains that fed cattle marketings have not graded up to expectations. These are the lowest percent grading Choice numbers observed since mid- to late-2003, during the Canadian BSE incidents when U.S. marketings were being pulled forward to satisfy the strong beef demand. Packers continue to be squeezed by stronger fed cattle prices and unfavorable price spreads, leaving their margins in the red.

Retail prices for Choice beef averaged $3.97 a pound in the third quarter, down from $4.12 a year earlier, but sharply above the $3.70 recorded in 2003. While retail prices are down from the recent record levels, prices appear to be stabilizing this summer and may be providing a better idea of price trends given the continued large total meat supplies and international market uncertainties. Retail prices for red meats and poultry remain very strong, with per capita consumption continuing at a record-setting pace.