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Weekly Ag Update

Issue 55-45

October 31, 2005

Included in this Issue

Crop Weather
Agricultural Prices
NASS Monthly Newsletter




CROP SUMMARY FOR THE WEEK ENDING NOVEMBER 13, 2005


NEW MEXICO: There were 6.9 days suitable for field work. Topsoil moisture was 16% very short, 52% short and 32% adequate. Wind damage was 4% light. Freeze damage was 24% light and 3% moderate. Crop harvesting is progressing normally. Alfalfa was in fair to excellent condition, with 98% of the 6th cutting complete, and 60% of the 7th cutting complete. Cotton was in mostly fair to excellent condition, with 43% harvested. Sorghum was in mostly fair to good condition, with 96% mature and 25% harvested for grain. Wheat was in mostly fair to excellent condition. Peanuts were 95% harvested. Lettuce was 68% harvested. Red chile was in mostly fair to excellent condition, with 60% harvested. Fall onions were in fair to excellent condition. Pecans were in fair to excellent condition. Ranchers continue marketing their calves and preparing for the winter months. Cattle conditions were 6% poor, 34% fair, 41% good, and 19% excellent. Sheep were listed as 8% very poor, 12% poor, 56% fair, 17% good, and 7% excellent. Range and pasture conditions were reported as 6% very poor, 25% poor, 40% fair, 27% good and 2% excellent.


CROP PROGRESS PERCENTAGES WITH COMPARISONS

CROP PROGRESS

 

This Week

Last Week

Last Year

5-Year Average

    CHILE

Harvested-Red

60

58

62

62

    COTTON

Harvested

43

38

35

50

    LETTUCE

Harvested

68

65

88

81

    PEANUTS

Harvested

95

81

74

78

    SORGHUM

Mature

96

85

82

95

    SORGHUM

Harvested

25

19

33

49


CROP AND LIVESTOCK CONDITION PERCENTAGES

 

Very Poor Poor

Poor

Fair

Good

Excellent

Alfalfa

--

--

13

50

37

Chile

--

8

19

60

13

Cotton

--

1

40

36

23

Onions

--

--

10

35

55

Pecan

--

--

22

18

60

Sorghum (All)

--

19

38

41

2

Wheat (All)

8

24

44

18

6

Cattle

--

6

34

41

19

Sheep

8

12

56

17

7

Range/Pasture

6

25

40

27

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                                                                                                                              

 

 

 

SOIL MOISTURE PERCENTAGES

 

Very

Short

Short

Adequate

Surplus

Northwest 

15

35

50

--

Northeast 

25

63

12

--

Southwest

--

100

--

--

Southeast

12

38

50

--

State Current

16

52

32

--

State-Last Week

18

28

54

--

State-Last Year

6

20

62

12

State-5-Yr Avg.

22

26

49

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WEATHER SUMMARY

 

Above normal average temperatures were reported statewide for the week, with record or near record max temperatures on Friday. Cold fronts into the eastern plains resulted in variable temperatures there, with cooler air in place both on Wednesday and again on Sunday. A fall storm moved quickly across the state on Friday. While moisture was limited, thunderstorms and showers developed across the west and north. Red River reported 0.34 inches of precipitation. Data is incomplete for Socorro and Las Vegas.

                                                     

NEW MEXICO WEATHER CONDITIONS - NOVEMBER 7 - 13, 2005

 

Temperature

Precipitation

Station

Mean

Maximum

Minimum

11/07

11/13

11/01

11/13

Normal

Nov.

01/01

   11/13

Normal

Jan-Nov

Farmington

54.0

74

28

0.00

0.00

0.94

8.52

8.12

Gallup

49.6

74

26

0.01

0.01

0.95

11.16

11.91

Capulin

47.3

72

20

0.04

0.04

0.67

17.48

16.94

Chama

45.1

67

23

0.05

0.05

1.72

25.26

19.81

Johnson Ranch

47.0

72

20

0.00

0.00

0.69

9.76

10.85

Las Vegas

48.9

72

28

0.00

0.00

0.58

18.99

18.36

Los Alamos

48.7

65

31

0.07

0.07

1.02

21.17

17.64

Raton

47.9

73

23

0.00

0.00

0.61

20.04

16.22

Red River

40.6

60

20

0.34

0.34

1.18

24.49

19.33

Santa Fe

49.8

70

30

0.00

0.00

0.63

14.04

13.21

Clayton

56.1

79

30

0.00

0.00

0.52

17.03

14.80

Clovis

56.6

80

32

0.00

0.00

0.73

17.42

16.97

Roy

51.4

75

23

0.00

0.00

0.50

18.83

15.29

Tucumcari

57.9

83

31

0.00

0.00

0.51

20.73

13.90

Grants

48.2

72

18

0.00

0.00

0.58

8.60

10.14

Quemado

48.6

74

16

0.00

0.00

0.45

12.50

13.04

Albuquerque

55.4

72

39

0.00

0.00

0.43

11.32

8.38

Carrizozo

52.9

78

30

0.00

0.00

0.76

14.71

12.07

Socorro

48.5

65

32

0.00

0.00

0.47

8.29

8.95

Gran Quivera

53.1

75

26

0.00

0.00

0.91

18.69

14.92

Moriarty

47.9

73

22

0.00

0.00

0.40

11.53

12.17

Ruidoso

48.9

72

25

0.00

0.00

0.88

20.47

19.72

Carlsbad

60.5

90

38

0.00

0.00

0.59

8.90

12.38

Roswell

53.2

81

32

0.00

0.00

0.55

11.42

12.38

Tatum

54.5

85

27

0.00

0.00

0.55

12.03

15.57

Alamogordo

63.4

80

45

0.00

0.00

0.71

12.22

11.92

Animas

61.6

82

36

0.00

0.00

0.71

10.80

10.62

Deming

60.1

83

33

0.00

0.00

0.64

8.09

9.73

Las Cruces

59.9

83

38

0.00

0.00

0.53

10.86

8.72

T or C

59.6

78

38

0.00

0.00

0.60

9.10

9.22

(T) Trace (-) No Report (*) Correction

All reports based on preliminary data. Precipitation data corrected monthly from official observation forms.

 

 

CROP PRODUCTION

 

NEW MEXICO: Corn for grain production forecast remains at 8.1 million bushels compared to 10.4 million bushels one year ago. Harvested acreage for 2005 is at 45,000 acres with yields expected to average 180.0 bushels per acre. Upland cotton production forecast is estimated at 92,000 bales, down 19 percent from the previous years' production of 113,000 bales. Harvested acreage is down 20 percent at 51,000 acres, with yields anticipated at 866 pounds per acre. American-Pima production is forecast at 21,000 bales, an 11 percent increase from the previous year's production of 19,000 bales. Harvested acreage totals 11,000 acres with yields anticipated to average 916 pounds per acre. Sorghum for Grain production is forecast at 4.1 million bushels, compared to 4.2 million bushels one year ago. Peanut harvested acreage is up from a year ago at 19,000 acres with yields expected at 3,400 pounds per acre. Potatoes acreage is also up at 5,300 acres and expected yields of 400 hundredweight per acre.

 

UNITED STATES: Corn for grain area harvested and to be harvested for grain is forecast at 74.3 million acres, unchanged from October but up 1 percent from 2004. Sorghum production is forecast at 388 million bushels, up 3 percent from last month but down 15 percent from last year. Based on November 1 conditions, the sorghum yield forecast is 68.2 bushels per acre, up 2.2 bushels from October but down 1.6 bushels from last year. Peanuts production is forecast at 4.66 billion pounds, down 5 percent from last month but up 9 percent from last year's crop. Area for harvest is expected to total 1.61 million acres, unchanged from October but up 15 percent from last year. All cotton production is forecast at 23.2 million 480-pound bales,

up 2 percent from the October forecast but slightly below last year's record high production. Yield is expected to average 813 pounds per acre, up 16 pounds from last month but down 42 pounds from 2004. Upland cotton harvested area is forecast at 13.4 million acres unchanged from last month but up 5 percent from last year. American-Pima production is forecast at 644,000 bales, down 9 percent from the October forecast and down 14 percent from last year. The U.S. yield is forecast at 1,166 pounds per harvested acre, down 9 percent from last month and down 19 percent from 2004. Fall potatoes production of fall potatoes for 2005 is forecast at 382 million cwt, down 7 percent from last year. Area harvested, at 951,800 acres, is virtually unchanged from the July forecast but 7 percent below last year. The average yield is forecast at a record high 402 cwt per acre, 1 cwt above the previous high set last year.

 

November 2005 Crop Summary: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, 2004 and Forecasted November 1, 2005


Crop


Unit

Area Harvested

Yield Per Acre

Production

2004

2005

2004

2005

2004

2005

 

 

---------1,000 Acres---------

---------Units---------

----------1,000 Units-------------

NEW MEXICO

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Corn for Grain

Bu.

58

45

180.0

180.0

10,440

8,100

All Cotton 1/ 2/

Lb.

74.5

62.0

850

875

132.0

113.0

   Upland Cotton 1/ 2/

Lb.

64.0

51.0

848

866

113.0

92.0

   A-P Cotton 1/ 2/

Lb.

10.5

11.0

869

916

19.0

21.0

Sorghum for Grain

Bu.

92

90

46.0

45.0

4,232

4,050

Peanuts

Lb.

17.0

19.0

3,500

3,400

59,500

64,600

Potatoes, Fall

Cwt.

4.0

5.3

430

400

1,720

2,120

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

UNITED STATES

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Corn for Grain

Bu.

73,632

74,333

160.4

148.4

11,807,217

11,032,105

All Cotton 1/ 2/

Lb.

13,057.0

13,673.0

855

813

23,250.7

23,161.0

   Upland Cotton 1/ 2/

Lb.

12,809.0

13,408.0

843

806

22,505.1

22,517.0

   A-P Cotton 1/ 2/

Lb.

248.0

265.0

1,443

1,166

745.6

644.0

Sorghum for Grain

Bu.

6,517

5,687

69.8

68.2

454,899

387,686

Peanuts

Lb.

1,394.0

1,607.0

3,076

2,898

4,288,200

4,657,700

Potatoes, Fall

Cwt.

1,166.9

1,084.3

391

389

456,041

421,326

1/ Production ginned and to be ginned. 2/ Yield reported in pounds per acre: production in bales (480 lb. net wt.).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Livestock Outlook - October 18, 2005

Economic Research Service, USDA

 

Fall Moisture Conditions Improve; Choice Beef Supplies Tighten: Recent rains have improved crop prospects and pasture conditions in many areas, Crop production estimates for feed grains were higher in October than they were in September. Forecast 2005/06 corn production is up 218 million bushels from the September estimate to 10.857 billion bushels, the second largest crop on record. The projected 2005/06 price range for corn is $1.65 to $2.05 per bushel, down 5 cents on each end from last month, and well below the $2.06 average for 2004/05, or the $2.42 average in 2003/04. Although this year’s harvest is below the record 11.81 billion bushels harvested in 2004/05, it is well above the third largest crop—10.09 billion bushels—harvested in 2003/04, and continues to hold grain prices well below the levels of recent years. The low corn prices and recent higher fed cattle prices favor stronger stocker/feeder cattle prices. However, strong feeder cattle prices continue to result in red ink for the fed cattle sector with break-evens this fall averaging in the lower $90s per cwt. While stocker/feeder cattle prices remain strong, wheat grazing prospects this fall have declined somewhat from earlier expectations as drier conditions developed in the Southern Great Plains, particularly in the Texas Panhandle fall-winter small grain grazing areas.

 

Prospects for this year’s hay crop are somewhat mixed with the October estimates rising from the August estimates for both alfalfa and other hay. But while the alfalfa prospects rose nearly 3 percent from August and 1 percent from a year earlier, the forecast of production of other hay rose only 1 percent and is expected to be down 7 percent from last year’s record harvest. Despite this decline, this year’s other hay crop would be the third largest on record, behind only the harvests of the past 2 years. The farm price of all hay in September averaged $99 a ton, up from $91.40 a year earlier. Alfalfa hay prices averaged $107 per ton, up $9.50 a ton from a year earlier, while the price of other hay was up only 30 cents a ton from a year earlier. While hay stocks are down from last year, and prices are up, stocks appear to be adequate for supplemental feeding through the winter, particularly with the still cyclically low cattle inventory.

 

Cow-Calf/Feeders Still Profitable: Cow-calf producers continue to be the best performing sector of the cattle/beef complex. Feeder calf prices remain at levels near or above year-ago levels, with almost every class of stocker/feeder steers and heifers at Oklahoma City selling for well over a dollar a pound. Cow prices, while slipping $2-$3 per cwt from year-ago

levels, are still $52 per hundredweight or better.

 

Except for some areas across the Northwest, Northern Rockies, Central Plains, and Great Lakes remaining under drought conditions, most of the rest of the cow-calf country has had enough precipitation to be in fair shape or better. Drier conditions have developed in the southern portions of the Southern Plains winter wheat areas and may necessitate some re-seeding when moisture is received.

 

Cattle Feeding and Wholesale Sectors Squeezed; Supplies of Higher Grading Cattle Remain Very Tight: Cattle on feed on September 1, 2005, were up marginally from a year earlier and about 2 percent above 2003. August placements were 5 percent below August 2004 placements and 16 percent below August 2003 placements. Marketings were 6 percent above last year, but 2 percent below August 2003. Much of the increase from last year reflects an extra slaughter day in August 2005.

 

The price spread between Choice and Select carcasses continues to widen and indicates a relative shortage of Choice beef. The proportion of cattle grading Choice and higher in September averaged about 53 percent, down from about 56 percent a year earlier. The Choice/Select spread has widened to $12 to $14 per cwt in the first half of October. Although larger numbers of feeder cattle weighing over 700 pounds have been placed on feed every month over a year earlier (except July) since April, it seems unlikely that this is the primary source of the problem. Slaughter weights continue at record or near record levels, and feedlot performance has apparently been fairly good. Steer weights are heavier than a year ago, and well above the low weights of 2003. The fact remains that fed cattle marketings have not graded up to expectations. These are the lowest percent grading Choice numbers observed since mid- to late-2003, during the Canadian BSE incidents when U.S. marketings were being pulled forward to satisfy the strong beef demand. Packers continue to be squeezed by stronger fed cattle prices and unfavorable price spreads, leaving their margins in the red.

 

Retail prices for Choice beef averaged $3.97 a pound in the third quarter, down from $4.12 a year earlier, but sharply above the $3.70 recorded in 2003. While retail prices are down from the recent record levels, prices appear to be stabilizing this summer and may be providing a better idea of price trends given the continued large total meat supplies and international market uncertainties. Retail prices for red meats and poultry remain very strong, with per capita consumption continuing at a record-setting pace.




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