News Release


USDA forecasts winter wheat production up 2% in 2024, orange production down 2% from April forecast

WASHINGTON, May 10, 2024 – U.S. farmers are expected to produce 1.28 billion bushels of winter wheat this year, according to the Crop Production report released today by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). In NASS’s first winter wheat production forecast for 2024, production is expected to increase 2% from 2023. As of May 1, the U.S. yield is expected to average 50.7 bushels per acre, up 0.1 bushel from last year’s average of 50.6 bushels per acre.

Hard Red Winter production is forecast at 705 million bushels, up 17% from a year ago. Soft Red Winter, at 344 million bushels, is expected to decrease 23% from 2023. White Winter, at 229 million bushels, is up 16% from last year. Of the White Winter production, 17.3 million bushels are Hard White and 211 million bushels are Soft White.

The U.S. all orange forecast for the 2023-2024 season is 2.69 million tons, down 2% from the previous forecast but up 5% from the 2022- 2023 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 17.8 million boxes (801,000 tons), is down 5% from the previous forecast but up 13% from last season’s final utilization.

U.S. almond production (shelled basis) is forecast at 3.00 billion pounds, up 21% from the previous year.

NASS surveyed approximately 8,300 producers across the country in preparation for this Crop Production report. This monthly report contains data for the United States, including area planted and harvested, yield, and production. The report also contains a weather summary, a monthly agricultural summary, and an analysis of precipitation and the degree of departure from the normal precipitation map for the month.

The Crop Production and other NASS reports are available at

There will be a question-and-answer session during a live #StatChat on the @usda_nass X account today at 1 p.m. EDT to answer questions about the Crop Production report. To ask a question, include #StatChat in posts.


NASS is the federal statistical agency responsible for producing official data about U.S. agriculture and is committed to providing timely, accurate and useful statistics in service to U.S. agriculture.

USDA is an equal opportunity provider, employer and lender. To file a complaint of discrimination, write to USDA, Assistant Secretary for Civil Rights, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Civil Rights, 1400 Independence Avenue, S.W., Stop 9410, Washington, DC 20250-9410, or call toll-free at (866) 632-9992 (English) or (800) 877-8339 (TDD) or (866) 377-8642 (English Federal-relay) or (800) 845-6136 (Spanish Federal-relay).